Jeff Niemann is the Big Average

by Tommy Rancel on Jun 25, 2009 1:44 PM EDT

Despite being a former first round pick and prospect, I find it very hard to get excited for a Jeff Niemann start. In fact, Erik has bestowed the nickname of the "Big Nyquil" on Niemann because he has the uncanny ability to make you feel like you've drank a bottle of Nyquil when you watch him on the mound. Niemann isn't bad, but he isn't that good either. His 4.23/4.81 FIP is about what you expect from a fifth starter. Again, Niemann is not bad, but average and R.J. has told us many times that average isn't necessarily a bad thing. I guess you can say that's all you want from a fifth starter, but excuse me while I nap thinking about watching the next Vincente Padilla.

Padilla is another "meh" starter. He's not terrible, but he's Vincente Padilla. Good new for Jeff Niemann is the Texas Rangers will give him tens of millions of dollars in the future, but I think the days of thinking Niemann will be a potential ace are rapidly decreasing.

Here are the side by side numbers:

Niemann		Padilla
14	GS	13
72.1	IP	78.1
4.23	ERA	4.48
4.81	FIP	4.51
5.47	K/9	4.6
4.11	BB/9	4.14
1.33	K/BB	1.11
1	HR/9	0.57

Ladies and Gentlemen: Mr. League average. The similarities don't end there.

Here is the stuff comparison:

Niemann		Padilla
91.6	FBv	91.7
72.9	FB%	73.1
80.5	SLv	80.9
13.3	SL%	10.6
76	CBv	68.4
10.6	CB%	8.6
82.8	CHv	82.5
1.2	CH%	0.2

Who's excited? Both throw very similar pitches; however, Padilla's fastball is better than Niemman's. He gets more horizontal break while getting about the same break vertically. The good news is Niemann has shown the ability to fool more batters, thanks to his breaking ball. He gets nearly double the about of swinging strikes (11.75% to 5.81%) that Padilla does. Niemann is also 26 and is still very raw while Padilla is 31 and very much what you see is what you get.

Once more, this is not a knock on Niemann. League average pitching is hard to find. I'm sure plently of teams wish they could have Niemann; he's average and cheap. For comparison, Padilla has made over $20 million dollars over the past two plus seasons. The Rays will decide in the next day or so what Niemann's future will be. It looks like either he or Andy Sonnanstine will be bumped from the Rays rotation and likely headed for a role in the bullpen. If it is Niemann to the bullpen, I think the bay area will sleep well from smaller, but more frequent doses of the Big Nyquil.

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Comments

Does he take a long time between pitches?

When I first saw the Big Nyquil on this site, I thought that’s what it was referring to. It sort of seems like he does, but maybe that’s just from watching lots of Shields/Sonny starts and having a warped perception of average time between pitches. Or maybe I’m just crazy….

Not that it’s important but Is there anyplace to look this up? I don’t know of one / didn’t find one in 10s of googling.

by ChiBurbRaysFan on Jun 25, 2009 1:58 PM EDT reply actions

He's average, which is exactly what we expected from him heading into the season.

by R.J. Anderson on Jun 25, 2009 2:06 PM EDT reply actions

Rookie Season.

Lets talk after 35 starts.

"What the hell is a Labradoddle?"

by davelrogers on Jun 25, 2009 2:13 PM EDT reply actions

Exactly

I’m sorry, but there is no point in making this comparison this early on. It is not even half way through his rookie season.

by Suckerpunch on Jun 25, 2009 2:22 PM EDT up reply actions

I love league average pitchers who are seen as worse.

A team of average players will win about 81 games. Not spectacular, but better than 98% (approximately) of the Rays seasons. You throw a few stars on there (say three of Crawford, Shields, Longoria, Pena) who are 3 wins better than average each, and you have a 90 win team. Add an extra star or a couple breakout years from guys (say Upton 2008 or Bartlett 2009) and you’re approaching the mid 90s, with a core of average players.

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by Sky Kalkman on Jun 25, 2009 2:19 PM EDT reply actions

I don't like Niemann in the bullpen right now.

I just don’t. I think his body of work since his horrible start has been better. In his first few starts he seemed softer then quicksand once batters got on base against him, but ever since he ran off that good streak it’s been a different Niemann. Yeah he struggled last time out, but he exhibited good damage control and managed to survive long enough to get pulled in an opportune situation and let the bullpen bring the rest of the game home.

Sonny on the other hand, has just been wildly inconsistent all year long, and Price doesn’t appear to look any different from his AAA self. If it were me, I’d send Price back down to AAA and remove his pitch count, let him pitch the way he wants to pitch to AAA hitters and work with him on developing a 3rd pitch to use in games, not a 3rd pitch that he needs to use within a 75 pitch limit.

In other words, Price still needs to develop some. Let him develop instead of trying to train him to be an MLB pitcher.

I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.

by kericr on Jun 25, 2009 2:21 PM EDT reply actions

I agree about the sample size

But more than just that, this comparison doesn’t even seem to make sense on it’s face. You can’t toss out the throwaway line at the end about their ages – 31 is a long way away from 26. This comp. doesn’t begin to touch on the difference in sizes – Jeff has 7 inches and probably 50 lbs on Padilla, and that by itself is going to lead to a different type of pitcher. The fact that they have the 4 most common pitches in their arsenal suggests nothing to me, leaving aside the fact that Jeff throws two separate fastballs, and “curveball” is a pretty generic category as well. Beyond all of that, the K rate for Jeff is nearly 1 K/9 higher than Padilla.

Honestly, I don’t see any area where this comparison is enlightening in the slightest. I walk away from this article feeling like the lack of personal excitement about watching Jeff pitch drove this rather than letting the numbers lead to a conclusion. That isn’t a feeling I often get from this site.

by sstamour on Jun 25, 2009 2:40 PM EDT reply actions