Series Preview: 6/26-6/28 Florida Marlins @ Tampa Bay Rays
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 26, 2009 11:30 AM EDT
42 comments
6/26: Josh Johnson vs. James Shields (7:38 FSF)
6/27: Chris Volstad vs. Jeff Niemann? (7:08 FSF)
6/28: Andrew Miller vs. David Price? (1:38 SS)
Johnson is quite good. In fact, he's on the verge of recording 3 WAR already this season. The next closest Marlins pitcher is Andrew Miller at 1.2 WAR, whom we face as well.
Volstad is a grounder inducer with a below average strand rate. Don't mind regressing on us please. He mostly throws a heavy fastball, curve, and change.
By now, most know about Miller. He's been the victim of some very good homerun/fly ball luck this season. Don't expect him to continue at that pace.
1B Jorge Cantu/Ross Gload/Wes Helms
2B Dan Uggla
SS Hanley Ramirez
CF Cody Ross
DH Cantu/Hermida
Playoff odds
Coolstandings: 45.8%
BPro (PECOTA): 22.6%
BPro (No PECOTA): 56.9%
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Lame
I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.
by kericr on Jun 26, 2009 11:42 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
http://www.annoying.com/nightmares/obsessive/02/0001/gallery.html
Get your fill, so your brain is desensitized to this dumb meme next time around.
Maybe I’m just an old fashioned BJ suck-off-er. (Good call Sandy)
by Lurch's Lobbyists on Jun 26, 2009 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I got my fill 10 years ago when people were putting these on the back of their trucks.
I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.
by kericr on Jun 26, 2009 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Fun facts about this series
The Marlins have won 5 straight, 9 of their last 12, are 1 game back from 1st place in their division, are 2 games over .500, but have a run differential of -20.
Thus far, the Marlins have been equally uninspiring regardless of venue; 20-20 at home and 18-16 on the road.
Their recent hot streak is full of different types of wins; no particular trend stands out, they’ve just won games.
The AL East collectively thus far is 34-26 against the NL East with each team having 3 games to go against teams in this division before interleague ends. Against the NL East, the team in the AL East with the best record is the Rays at 9-3. The rest: Boston (8-4), Baltimore (7-5), The Yankees (6-6) and the Blue Jays (4-8).
Among starters with at least 60IP, Jeff Niemann has the highest run support score in the league at 12.94. Andy Sonnanstine is 8th at 9.26. At the opposite end of the scale, Matt Garza is 99th at 5.73 and James Shields is 103rd out of 113 qualifiers with a score of 5.49. If I’m him and I don’t have 5 runs by the 3rd inning, I’m breaking my foot off in someone’s ass (Run support score is measured as teams runs scored (average, per 9 innings pitched) while the pitcher of record).
I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.
by kericr on Jun 26, 2009 12:11 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I like that we have Shieldsy at home against Johnson.
Hopefully we can score some runs for him.
by rglass44 on Jun 26, 2009 12:18 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
might be a 1-0 game
Hopefully we have the 1!
Rotation: 1. James Shields 2. Matt Garza 3. David Price 4. Jeff Niemann 5. Andy Sonnanstine...... Coming Soon: Scott Kazmir but for who?!
by joeybw on Jun 26, 2009 1:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Seeking revenge here
for Aki and hopefully its firected at Couglin
"Doesn't Manny Ramirez look like the monster from Predator??" - Will Farrell as Harry Carey
by Gone Phishing on Jun 26, 2009 12:51 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
What day does Kazmir start?
ESPN -- The Red Sox Network
by St Pete Native on Jun 26, 2009 1:24 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
They haven't announced it yet, either tomorrow or Sunday.
Tools Whore
by Tyler on Jun 26, 2009 1:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I know.
Any thoughts or opinions. Best Guess?
ESPN -- The Red Sox Network
by St Pete Native on Jun 26, 2009 1:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sunday most likely. I would think they'd have announced it if it was going to be tomorrow.
That’s my best guess.
Tools Whore
by Tyler on Jun 26, 2009 1:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Start Kaz tmw plz
if they are worried about 2 lefties in a row, they can fix that very soon during the All Star break
Rotation: 1. James Shields 2. Matt Garza 3. David Price 4. Jeff Niemann 5. Andy Sonnanstine...... Coming Soon: Scott Kazmir but for who?!
by joeybw on Jun 26, 2009 1:41 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
get to the trop this weekend. all who can.
So long, Sweet Lime!
by PlayOnWords on Jun 26, 2009 2:32 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Who else will be at the game tonight?
I’m sitting on the aisle in the 2nd row of 140 by the foul pole
by Jason Collette on Jun 26, 2009 3:18 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Suttree is one of those guys
who flashes the shocker in the background of everyone’s pictures.
Selgy
by mittens on Jun 26, 2009 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm debating
My gf wants to hang out tonight for sure and most of my friends are going to that country concert. Plus I’m not really “feeling it”, but I think it would be a decent game to go see.
by matthan on Jun 26, 2009 3:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
With this pitching matchup - you're not "feeling it?"
I love these types of matchups. I’d be thrilled if this thing finished 1-0 or 2-1
by Jason Collette on Jun 26, 2009 4:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He has friends who are going to a country concert...
I think we might be able to discount his level of taste.
Until Next Time,
The Sports Chief
by Top Gun Numba 1 on Jun 26, 2009 4:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm going to put Suttree's testicles on the top of your head
Until Next Time,
The Sports Chief
by Top Gun Numba 1 on Jun 26, 2009 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
this has probably already been posted
but Harold Reynold’s latest blog is fucking hilarious
Selgy
by mittens on Jun 26, 2009 4:48 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
There actually have been several blog posts around on this blog (none on here specifically, but I think BTB has one)
My summary: he’s a terrible written communicator, but he’s not false in saying that OPS is flawed.
I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.
by kericr on Jun 26, 2009 5:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
every stat has flaws but..
he almost seems to imply that OPS is a useless stat and has no correlation to a player’s offensive abilities. Also, he takes a stat meant to measure long term performance and incorporates it into a discussion of situational hitting, kindof.
by wtbudlight on Jun 26, 2009 5:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Kind of the same way sabermetrics experts completely dismiss traditional stats such as batting average and ERA as worthless, right?
I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.
by kericr on Jun 26, 2009 5:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't know that they dismiss them...
If I understand it correctly, they simply argue that the “new” stats are much more representative of player ability and are much more useful as a predictive tool because take those factors which a player can’t control out of the equation.
I don’t claim to be an expert at either, and consider myself to be well versed in the field of statistics but a novice to the sabermetric approach to baseball.
by wtbudlight on Jun 26, 2009 5:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
**ahem**
Harold Reynold’s latest blog is fucking hilarious
I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.
by kericr on Jun 26, 2009 10:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
the whole thing is completely incoherent
what are you even arguing
Selgy
by mittens on Jun 27, 2009 3:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I get this...
But it seems at least stat heads have a reason to criticize since they have found better metrics. The banter from old baseball types who dismiss stats because they are “invented” is getting old. It is proven that OPS more accurately correlates to runs than avg, obp, or slugging. I’m not sure why there is general hostility towards it.
I do agree with ERA though, it’s not the best predictor, but too many people state it is worthless when it is definitely not.
by tallyray on Jun 26, 2009 7:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Criticism is warranted, it's OK to argue a point.
You really should take a look around outside of DRaysBay in terms of sabermetric blogs; hell, just look for responses to Reynolds’ blog. There is a quite a bit of dismissive arrogance that really only should be reserved for those who believe their blogs.
Again, Harold’s argument isn’t that batting average is a superior metric to OPS, it’s that OPS is flawed. A lot of people thing it’s perfect, and that’s wrong.
I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.
by kericr on Jun 26, 2009 10:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
"There is a quite a bit of dismissive arrogance that really only should be reserved for those who believe their blogs."
Uh…what the hell did I just say?
Let me try that again; that dismissive arrogance should be reserved for those who actually invented the metrics, not merely someone who believes in someone else’s work.
I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.
by kericr on Jun 26, 2009 10:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's pretty funny that he is just hearing about OPS now, when we're already on wOBA, which I find to be pretty dang good
Rays Win!
by Sandy Kazmir on Jun 26, 2009 5:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The problem with wOBA is it's tough to quantify and explain...
At least OPS is easy to calculate (since SLG and OBP are pretty much mainstream) and just as easy to explain. I understand the purpose of a lot of the newer stats but also see why they haven’t caught on.
by tallyray on Jun 26, 2009 7:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
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