Series Preview: 6/26-6/28 Florida Marlins @ Tampa Bay Rays

by R.J. Anderson on Jun 26, 2009 11:30 AM EDT Comment 42 comments

6/26: Josh Johnson vs. James Shields (7:38 FSF)

6/27: Chris Volstad vs. Jeff Niemann? (7:08 FSF)

6/28: Andrew Miller vs. David Price? (1:38 SS)

Johnson is quite good. In fact, he's on the verge of recording 3 WAR already this season. The next closest Marlins pitcher is Andrew Miller at 1.2 WAR, whom we face as well.

Volstad is a grounder inducer with a below average strand rate. Don't mind regressing on us please. He mostly throws a heavy fastball, curve, and change.

By now, most know about Miller. He's been the victim of some very good homerun/fly ball luck this season. Don't expect him to continue at that pace.

C John Baker/Ronny Paulino

1B Jorge Cantu/Ross Gload/Wes Helms

2B Dan Uggla

3B Emilio Bonifacio

SS Hanley Ramirez

LF Chris Coghlan

CF Cody Ross

RF Jeremy Hermida

DH Cantu/Hermida

Playoff odds

Coolstandings: 45.8%

BPro (PECOTA): 22.6%

BPro (No PECOTA): 56.9%

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What's on my mind

by Jason Collette on Jun 26, 2009 11:34 AM EDT reply actions 2 recs

Lame

I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.

by kericr on Jun 26, 2009 11:42 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

http://www.annoying.com/nightmares/obsessive/02/0001/gallery.html

Get your fill, so your brain is desensitized to this dumb meme next time around.

Maybe I’m just an old fashioned BJ suck-off-er. (Good call Sandy)

by Lurch's Lobbyists on Jun 26, 2009 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I got my fill 10 years ago when people were putting these on the back of their trucks.

I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.

by kericr on Jun 26, 2009 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I enjoy this

by RaysTheRoof on Jun 26, 2009 12:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Fun facts about this series

The Marlins have won 5 straight, 9 of their last 12, are 1 game back from 1st place in their division, are 2 games over .500, but have a run differential of -20.

Thus far, the Marlins have been equally uninspiring regardless of venue; 20-20 at home and 18-16 on the road.

Their recent hot streak is full of different types of wins; no particular trend stands out, they’ve just won games.

The AL East collectively thus far is 34-26 against the NL East with each team having 3 games to go against teams in this division before interleague ends. Against the NL East, the team in the AL East with the best record is the Rays at 9-3. The rest: Boston (8-4), Baltimore (7-5), The Yankees (6-6) and the Blue Jays (4-8).

Among starters with at least 60IP, Jeff Niemann has the highest run support score in the league at 12.94. Andy Sonnanstine is 8th at 9.26. At the opposite end of the scale, Matt Garza is 99th at 5.73 and James Shields is 103rd out of 113 qualifiers with a score of 5.49. If I’m him and I don’t have 5 runs by the 3rd inning, I’m breaking my foot off in someone’s ass (Run support score is measured as teams runs scored (average, per 9 innings pitched) while the pitcher of record).

I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.

by kericr on Jun 26, 2009 12:11 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I like that we have Shieldsy at home against Johnson.

Hopefully we can score some runs for him.

by rglass44 on Jun 26, 2009 12:18 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

might be a 1-0 game

Hopefully we have the 1!

Rotation: 1. James Shields 2. Matt Garza 3. David Price 4. Jeff Niemann 5. Andy Sonnanstine...... Coming Soon: Scott Kazmir but for who?!

by joeybw on Jun 26, 2009 1:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Seeking revenge here

for Aki and hopefully its firected at Couglin

"Doesn't Manny Ramirez look like the monster from Predator??" - Will Farrell as Harry Carey

by Gone Phishing on Jun 26, 2009 12:51 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

What day does Kazmir start?

ESPN -- The Red Sox Network

by St Pete Native on Jun 26, 2009 1:24 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

They haven't announced it yet, either tomorrow or Sunday.

Tools Whore

by Tyler on Jun 26, 2009 1:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I know.

Any thoughts or opinions. Best Guess?

ESPN -- The Red Sox Network

by St Pete Native on Jun 26, 2009 1:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sunday most likely. I would think they'd have announced it if it was going to be tomorrow.

That’s my best guess.

Tools Whore

by Tyler on Jun 26, 2009 1:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Start Kaz tmw plz

if they are worried about 2 lefties in a row, they can fix that very soon during the All Star break

Rotation: 1. James Shields 2. Matt Garza 3. David Price 4. Jeff Niemann 5. Andy Sonnanstine...... Coming Soon: Scott Kazmir but for who?!

by joeybw on Jun 26, 2009 1:41 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

get to the trop this weekend. all who can.

So long, Sweet Lime!

by PlayOnWords on Jun 26, 2009 2:32 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I bet your stupid ass isn't even gonna be there.

by Suttree on Jun 26, 2009 2:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

lol

Rays baseball + Colorado Football= amazing

by raysfan81 on Jun 26, 2009 3:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Who else will be at the game tonight?

I’m sitting on the aisle in the 2nd row of 140 by the foul pole

What's on my mind

by Jason Collette on Jun 26, 2009 3:18 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I'm gonna creep on you so hardcore.

by Suttree on Jun 26, 2009 3:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Suttree is one of those guys

who flashes the shocker in the background of everyone’s pictures.

Selgy

by mittens on Jun 26, 2009 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm debating

My gf wants to hang out tonight for sure and most of my friends are going to that country concert. Plus I’m not really “feeling it”, but I think it would be a decent game to go see.

by matthan on Jun 26, 2009 3:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

With this pitching matchup - you're not "feeling it?"

I love these types of matchups. I’d be thrilled if this thing finished 1-0 or 2-1

What's on my mind

by Jason Collette on Jun 26, 2009 4:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He has friends who are going to a country concert...

I think we might be able to discount his level of taste.

Until Next Time,
The Sports Chief

by Top Gun Numba 1 on Jun 26, 2009 4:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm going to put Suttree's testicles on the top of your head

Until Next Time,
The Sports Chief

by Top Gun Numba 1 on Jun 26, 2009 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sweet

I need to find people to go

Swav or Die
For the lulz

by SRQman on Jun 26, 2009 4:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

this has probably already been posted

but Harold Reynold’s latest blog is fucking hilarious

Selgy

by mittens on Jun 26, 2009 4:48 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

There actually have been several blog posts around on this blog (none on here specifically, but I think BTB has one)

My summary: he’s a terrible written communicator, but he’s not false in saying that OPS is flawed.

I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.

by kericr on Jun 26, 2009 5:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

every stat has flaws but..

he almost seems to imply that OPS is a useless stat and has no correlation to a player’s offensive abilities. Also, he takes a stat meant to measure long term performance and incorporates it into a discussion of situational hitting, kindof.

by wtbudlight on Jun 26, 2009 5:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Kind of the same way sabermetrics experts completely dismiss traditional stats such as batting average and ERA as worthless, right?

I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.

by kericr on Jun 26, 2009 5:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't know that they dismiss them...

If I understand it correctly, they simply argue that the “new” stats are much more representative of player ability and are much more useful as a predictive tool because take those factors which a player can’t control out of the equation.

I don’t claim to be an expert at either, and consider myself to be well versed in the field of statistics but a novice to the sabermetric approach to baseball.

by wtbudlight on Jun 26, 2009 5:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

ahem

Harold Reynold’s latest blog is fucking hilarious

I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.

by kericr on Jun 26, 2009 10:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I didn't say that

by wtbudlight on Jun 27, 2009 2:54 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

the whole thing is completely incoherent

what are you even arguing

Selgy

by mittens on Jun 27, 2009 3:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I get this...

But it seems at least stat heads have a reason to criticize since they have found better metrics. The banter from old baseball types who dismiss stats because they are “invented” is getting old. It is proven that OPS more accurately correlates to runs than avg, obp, or slugging. I’m not sure why there is general hostility towards it.

I do agree with ERA though, it’s not the best predictor, but too many people state it is worthless when it is definitely not.

by tallyray on Jun 26, 2009 7:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Criticism is warranted, it's OK to argue a point.

You really should take a look around outside of DRaysBay in terms of sabermetric blogs; hell, just look for responses to Reynolds’ blog. There is a quite a bit of dismissive arrogance that really only should be reserved for those who believe their blogs.

Again, Harold’s argument isn’t that batting average is a superior metric to OPS, it’s that OPS is flawed. A lot of people thing it’s perfect, and that’s wrong.

I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.

by kericr on Jun 26, 2009 10:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

"There is a quite a bit of dismissive arrogance that really only should be reserved for those who believe their blogs."

Uh…what the hell did I just say?

Let me try that again; that dismissive arrogance should be reserved for those who actually invented the metrics, not merely someone who believes in someone else’s work.

I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.

by kericr on Jun 26, 2009 10:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs