A Look at the Rays and Full Counts
With the addition of Pat Burrell, the 2009 Rays have become, well, Burellian. The Rays have really excelled at working the count and sit 2nd in the AL in walk % at 10.7%. One man sticks out like a sore thumb, Dioner Navarro has 4 walks and is walking 1.8% of the time. In a nutshell, Navi has been hacktastic. The interesting thing is Navarro was a double-digit walker in 2005-06. Even just last year, he walked 7.4% of the time.
I decided to look at which hitters worked full counts the most often. I also looked at what the results were after the count reached 3-2. Unfortunately, I compiled this data yesterday and am too Anti-Zobrist (lazy) to adjust so the results will not include the Full Count clinic put on by Carlos Pena and Pat Burrell last night.
Onto the data:
| TPA | FC | FC% | BB/FC | K/FC | BB/K | OBP | |
| Carlos Pena | 310 | 74 | 23.90% | 36.50% | 39% | 0.93 | 0.432 |
| Willy Aybar | 155 | 32 | 20.60% | 40.60% | 6% | 6.5 | 0.5 |
| B.J. Upton | 306 | 57 | 18.60% | 26.30% | 26% | 1 | 0.439 |
| Pat Burrell | 156 | 29 | 18.60% | 37.90% | 24% | 1.57 | 0.483 |
| Akinori Iwamura | 176 | 32 | 18.20% | 21.90% | 16% | 1.4 | 0.406 |
| Gabe Gross | 149 | 25 | 16.80% | 48% | 12% | 4 | 0.64 |
| Ben Zobrist | 233 | 39 | 16.70% | 25.60% | 28% | 0.91 | 0.385 |
| Gabe Kapler | 111 | 16 | 14.40% | 50% | 0% | 0.688 | |
| Evan Longoria | 295 | 39 | 13.20% | 41% | 15% | 2.67 | 0.59 |
| Carl Crawford | 319 | 33 | 10.30% | 27.30% | 12% | 2.25 | 0.576 |
| Jason Bartlett | 211 | 20 | 9.50% | 30% | 20% | 1.5 | 0.55 |
| Dioner Navarro | 223 | 20 | 9% | 10% | 25% | 0.4 | 0.25 |
Wow, Carlos Pena reaches a full count 24% of the time. Once he reaches a full count he walks or strikes out over 75% of the time!
How about Gabe Kapler's pitch spoiling ability? 16 full counts resulting in 8 walks and 0 strikeouts.
Willie Aybar has shown very good ability at working the count as well with a 6.5:1 BB/K ratio in full count situations while reaching a full count 1 in 5 plate appearances.
Then we have Navarro at a team low 9% of plate appearances reaching full counts. Only 10% of those result in walks. His on base % in full counts is a pitiful .250. Eyeballing the results, only Ben Zobrist is below his season OBP in full count situations and he's within .020 or so.
As mentioned yesterday, John Jaso has been excercising a lot of plate discipline at AAA Durham with a 14.1% BB% and a 1.27 BB:K ratio. Given Jaso's patience and Navi's OBP% floundering at .239, it would not take much hitting for Jaso to outperform Navarro at the plate. Are we nearing the end of the line for Navarro?
H/T RGlass for the sweet table appearance, stats from Bref
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73 comments
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Comments
I'm a big believer in the power of enviroment, the power of systems.
If Navarro can’t learn to lay off pitches while watching Upton, Pena, Burrell, Gross and the others work the count, then there is no saving him.
by Suttree on Jun 26, 2009 12:05 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Both of Navi's walks came after FCs.
He even tried to hack his way out of his two walks. What has happened to teh All Star?
by rglass44 on Jun 26, 2009 12:15 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
He has 4 walks
one came w/ 1st base open with runners on 2nd and 3rd 2outs and Matt garza on deck early in a game
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by FreeZorilla on Jun 26, 2009 12:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks for the props
Anyone have any idea how Jaso’s defense has fared this year?
by rglass44 on Jun 26, 2009 12:16 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Oh, did FreeZorilla wake you up finally?
You guys are adorable.
by Suttree on Jun 26, 2009 12:32 PM EDT up reply actions 5 recs
See that other thread where Zo claimed you were sleeping.
There’s only one way he could know, and it’s not a slumber party.
by Suttree on Jun 26, 2009 12:35 PM EDT up reply actions 5 recs
Understandable, it's tough to keep your hands off old Free Zorilla.
by Suttree on Jun 26, 2009 12:44 PM EDT up reply actions 5 recs
they listened to the julianna zobrist album while talking about what kind of house they might have in five years
So long, Sweet Lime!
by PlayOnWords on Jun 26, 2009 2:00 PM EDT up reply actions 5 recs
FreeZorilla: Andy, if I were obsessed with Edwin Jackson instead of Ben Zobrist, would you still love me?
RJ: Shhh…. (puts his finger to Zo’s lips)
by Suttree on Jun 26, 2009 2:15 PM EDT up reply actions 6 recs
it all ends when rj discovers an email chain freezo's been having with raymondo
So long, Sweet Lime!
by PlayOnWords on Jun 26, 2009 2:19 PM EDT up reply actions 5 recs
Only later do they find out the email chain was an elaborate ruse set up by TGN1 to shatter their love.
by Suttree on Jun 26, 2009 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions 6 recs
no. rj gets huffy and leaves the relationship, but then, two weeks later, he walks into Ferg's to discover
that the emails were really just to set up rj’s surprise birthday party!!! in the meanwhile, though, rj totally grudgefucked matthan. so that’s all awkward.
So long, Sweet Lime!
by PlayOnWords on Jun 26, 2009 2:27 PM EDT up reply actions 5 recs
Just to make matters worse, matthan video taped it, like his usual date rape routine.
After the birthday party and brief reconciliation between Zo and RJ, Anderson gets a job offer from Baseball Prospectus. Miffed that RJ’s gone back to Zo, matthan calls RJ a cuntwagon and sends the sex tape to Prospectus’ offices, threatening to blow up the whole situation. That is, until Christina Kharl gets a hold of the tape…
by Suttree on Jun 26, 2009 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions 6 recs
...shows it to Sandy, who blackmails his way into owning DRB and turning the site into a
webkinz blog
So long, Sweet Lime!
by PlayOnWords on Jun 26, 2009 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions 5 recs
If this entire thread doesn't go green, I will never rec another one of you guys ever again.
I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.
by kericr on Jun 26, 2009 3:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Me and Chrissy are tight dawg
Rays Win!
by Sandy Kazmir on Jun 26, 2009 4:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think the chart reemphasizes
another value of Gross. He seems to work the count very well. Purely anecdotally it has always appeared to me that he rarely sees fewer than 4-5 pitches and even with 2 strikes will watch a few balls go by and foul off some marginal pitches before completing the AB, even against lefties. Notice too that once reaching a full count he walks 4 times as often as he strikes out, second only to Aybar’s remarkable 61/2 times. (and Kapler’s of course. Even in his deepest slump, Kapler was walking a pretty good % of the time, more I think than he had done during his career.)
As noted in another thread, this year’s hacking tendency of Navarro, while a continuation of his trend while in TB, is completely out of line with his reputation and earlier history and so dramatically different even from last year’s low as to need more explanation. I am not ready to write him off yet or expect Jaso to replace him so soon.
by bobr on Jun 26, 2009 12:34 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Good point
Combined our RF named Gabe has reached 41 full counts resulting in 20 walks and 3 strikeouts. Thats in a word, awesome.
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by FreeZorilla on Jun 26, 2009 12:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Why don't we foul off more pitches?
It seems that our pitchers struggle with other teams who foul-off multiple pitches, Kazmir come to mind. But our batters, especially BJ seem to take the close pitch. As the data shows, he strikes out as often as he walks. Why do they take the chance on the ones at the corners of the plate.
by jso on Jun 26, 2009 12:41 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
If it's really a close pitch, then they have a 50/50 shot at reaching base or not.
Those are fantastic odds.
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 26, 2009 12:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
.500 OBP is solid, no?
Put the ball in play and its going to be between .290-.350 ish
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by FreeZorilla on Jun 26, 2009 12:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Opponents are walking 34% of the time when reaching a full count with an OBP of .480
I’ll do a separate post on pitchers
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by FreeZorilla on Jun 26, 2009 1:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
For reference, league wide OBP in 3-2 counts: .478.
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 26, 2009 12:45 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Did you check the # of walks?
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by FreeZorilla on Jun 26, 2009 12:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The Rays are at 32.6% with an OBP of .475
Damn Navi Drag
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by FreeZorilla on Jun 26, 2009 12:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
As a team meaning the players on the table
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by FreeZorilla on Jun 26, 2009 12:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Last night Kennedy described navi's proble, perfectly
Durbin threw him a perfect pitch for strike one, and then in typical navi fashion he misses a breaking ball by a foot. Kennedy said you can’t be sitting on a breaking ball for strike one so why change on strike two?
I watch each and every one of navi’s ABs and he rarely takes a pitch if he has a strike
by Raymondo on Jun 26, 2009 1:46 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
He also swung at like 3 breaking balls in the dirt.
A few off a side-arming lefty which never got below the knees. He looks lost up there.
by rglass44 on Jun 26, 2009 1:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I have been a big supporter of Navi, but his approach, as shown here and elsewhere, is just the pits
I don’t see him as a particularly exceptional defender, either. Could he be trade bait in a package? Ride that All Star sheen?
So long, Sweet Lime!
by PlayOnWords on Jun 26, 2009 2:00 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
By "particuarly exceptional"...
did you mean “good at all”
by wtbudlight on Jun 26, 2009 2:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i was using my joe magrane/diplomatic outrage voice
So long, Sweet Lime!
by PlayOnWords on Jun 26, 2009 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm sure the patience level with navi is wearing down
by Raymondo on Jun 26, 2009 2:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Even with me.
I loved him since we acquired him. A lot of that was predicated on his on-base skills, though, much like Zobrist.
by rglass44 on Jun 26, 2009 2:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
FZo
I’d be curious to see what the GIDP #s look like in this context. Got any idea?
So long, Sweet Lime!
by PlayOnWords on Jun 26, 2009 2:23 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Can you elaborate?
GIDP on full counts?
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by FreeZorilla on Jun 26, 2009 2:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
rally killer stat
is where im going with that. for fun.
So long, Sweet Lime!
by PlayOnWords on Jun 26, 2009 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
and i know you don't need a full count for it
So long, Sweet Lime!
by PlayOnWords on Jun 26, 2009 2:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Navi has GIDP in 17% of situations with a runner on 1B and < 20 outs
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by FreeZorilla on Jun 26, 2009 2:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Team average is 8%.
Wow. He’s terrible.
by rglass44 on Jun 26, 2009 2:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
18% last year
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by FreeZorilla on Jun 26, 2009 2:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
What is the league average for catchers?
Not that I defend Navi, but my guess is that catchers as a whole have a higher rate than average due to them being pretty slow.
by wtbudlight on Jun 26, 2009 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
thats a different stat entirely, maybe next week.
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by FreeZorilla on Jun 26, 2009 2:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
None for Navi
1 for Aybar, Hernandez and Brignac.
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by FreeZorilla on Jun 26, 2009 2:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Although it is frustrating to watch Navarro
swing and miss so much, it seems to me he is hitting more line drives this past month than earlier in the year when he appeared to constantly be popping up or hitting weak grounders. Even his foul balls are often well-struck. Is there any truth to that perception?
by bobr on Jun 26, 2009 2:24 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Navarro is hitting 19% liners in June.
18% overall, obviously that number was lower prior to June.
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 26, 2009 2:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think I pointed out his SLG is up month over month
but if navarro is never going to walk he will need to hit .300 to have a respectable OBP. Hes not going to be a consistent .300 hitter.
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by FreeZorilla on Jun 26, 2009 2:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Right.
I’m curious as to why he’s fearful of walking all the sudden.
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 26, 2009 2:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He's not lazy. He may not be fast, but he hustles more on a grounder than a BB
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by FreeZorilla on Jun 26, 2009 2:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not sure what this means
How can you hustle or not hustle on a walk? I don’t really think there is such thing as hustling or not in a dead ball situation. It is like how some people complain about someone not hauling butt out to their position.
One thing I did notice. Navi seems to give 100% on offense but he seems very lazy (for a lack of a better word) on defense. My guess is that it isn’t intentional but rather he has fallen into some really bad habits.
by matthan on Jun 26, 2009 3:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It was a joke
It was a stupid statement
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by FreeZorilla on Jun 26, 2009 4:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You don't walk off the island
Rays Win!
by Sandy Kazmir on Jun 26, 2009 4:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
ZOBRIST FANS UNITE!!!!!!!!!!!!
Ben Zobrist should be an All-Star.
Join the online petition:
http://www.petitionspot.com/petitions/zobrist
by Z_is_for_Zobrist on Jun 26, 2009 8:10 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
how about average with a full-count? it's not really fair to look at OBP with a full-count because you can only bb on a 3-ball count
by walkoffwalk on Jun 26, 2009 9:09 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Right, so you should have a high OBP
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by FreeZorilla on Jun 26, 2009 11:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

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