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A Look at the Rays and Full Counts

With the addition of Pat Burrell, the 2009 Rays have become, well, Burellian. The Rays have really excelled at working the count and sit  2nd in the AL in walk % at 10.7%. One man sticks out like a sore thumb, Dioner Navarro  has 4 walks and is walking 1.8% of the time.  In a nutshell, Navi has been hacktastic.  The interesting thing is Navarro was a double-digit walker in 2005-06. Even just last year, he walked 7.4% of the time.

I decided to look at which hitters worked full counts the most often. I also looked at what the results were after the count reached 3-2.  Unfortunately, I  compiled this data yesterday and am too Anti-Zobrist (lazy) to adjust so the results will not include the Full Count clinic put on by Carlos Pena and Pat Burrell last night.


Onto the data:

Star-divide

TPA  FC FC% BB/FC  K/FC  BB/K  OBP
Carlos Pena 310 74 23.90% 36.50% 39% 0.93 0.432
Willy Aybar 155 32 20.60% 40.60% 6% 6.5 0.5
B.J. Upton 306 57 18.60% 26.30% 26% 1 0.439
Pat Burrell 156 29 18.60% 37.90% 24% 1.57 0.483
Akinori Iwamura 176 32 18.20% 21.90% 16% 1.4 0.406
Gabe Gross 149 25 16.80% 48% 12% 4 0.64
Ben Zobrist 233 39 16.70% 25.60% 28% 0.91 0.385
Gabe Kapler 111 16 14.40% 50% 0% 0.688
Evan Longoria 295 39 13.20% 41% 15% 2.67 0.59
Carl Crawford 319 33 10.30% 27.30% 12% 2.25 0.576
Jason Bartlett 211 20 9.50% 30% 20% 1.5 0.55
Dioner Navarro 223 20 9% 10% 25% 0.4 0.25

 

Wow, Carlos Pena reaches a full count 24% of the time. Once he reaches a full count he walks or strikes out over 75% of the time!

How about Gabe Kapler's pitch spoiling ability? 16 full counts resulting in 8 walks and 0 strikeouts.

Willie Aybar has shown very good ability at working the count as well with a 6.5:1 BB/K ratio in full count situations while reaching a full count 1 in 5 plate appearances.

Then we have Navarro at a team low 9% of plate appearances reaching full counts. Only 10% of those result in walks. His on base % in full counts is a pitiful .250. Eyeballing the results, only Ben Zobrist is below his season OBP in full count situations and he's within .020 or so.

As mentioned yesterday, John Jaso has been excercising a lot of plate discipline at AAA Durham with a 14.1% BB% and a 1.27 BB:K ratio. Given Jaso's patience and Navi's OBP% floundering at .239, it would not take much hitting for Jaso to outperform Navarro at the plate. Are we nearing the end of the line for Navarro?

H/T RGlass for the sweet table appearance, stats from Bref

0 recs  |  Comment 73 comments |

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I'm a big believer in the power of enviroment, the power of systems.

If Navarro can’t learn to lay off pitches while watching Upton, Pena, Burrell, Gross and the others work the count, then there is no saving him.

by Suttree on Jun 26, 2009 12:05 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Both of Navi's walks came after FCs.

He even tried to hack his way out of his two walks. What has happened to teh All Star?

by rglass44 on Jun 26, 2009 12:15 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

He has 4 walks

one came w/ 1st base open with runners on 2nd and 3rd 2outs and Matt garza on deck early in a game

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Jun 26, 2009 12:16 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Oh, My B

I thought he only had 2, so the math worked. Oh well.

by rglass44 on Jun 26, 2009 12:20 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Thanks for the props

Anyone have any idea how Jaso’s defense has fared this year?

by rglass44 on Jun 26, 2009 12:16 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I think the chart reemphasizes

another value of Gross. He seems to work the count very well. Purely anecdotally it has always appeared to me that he rarely sees fewer than 4-5 pitches and even with 2 strikes will watch a few balls go by and foul off some marginal pitches before completing the AB, even against lefties. Notice too that once reaching a full count he walks 4 times as often as he strikes out, second only to Aybar’s remarkable 61/2 times. (and Kapler’s of course. Even in his deepest slump, Kapler was walking a pretty good % of the time, more I think than he had done during his career.)

As noted in another thread, this year’s hacking tendency of Navarro, while a continuation of his trend while in TB, is completely out of line with his reputation and earlier history and so dramatically different even from last year’s low as to need more explanation. I am not ready to write him off yet or expect Jaso to replace him so soon.

by bobr on Jun 26, 2009 12:34 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Good point

Combined our RF named Gabe has reached 41 full counts resulting in 20 walks and 3 strikeouts. Thats in a word, awesome.

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by FreeZorilla on Jun 26, 2009 12:51 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Why don't we foul off more pitches?

It seems that our pitchers struggle with other teams who foul-off multiple pitches, Kazmir come to mind. But our batters, especially BJ seem to take the close pitch. As the data shows, he strikes out as often as he walks. Why do they take the chance on the ones at the corners of the plate.

by jso on Jun 26, 2009 12:41 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

.500 OBP is solid, no?

Put the ball in play and its going to be between .290-.350 ish

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by FreeZorilla on Jun 26, 2009 12:45 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Opponents are walking 34% of the time when reaching a full count with an OBP of .480

I’ll do a separate post on pitchers

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by FreeZorilla on Jun 26, 2009 1:15 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Last night Kennedy described navi's proble, perfectly

Durbin threw him a perfect pitch for strike one, and then in typical navi fashion he misses a breaking ball by a foot. Kennedy said you can’t be sitting on a breaking ball for strike one so why change on strike two?

I watch each and every one of navi’s ABs and he rarely takes a pitch if he has a strike

by Raymondo on Jun 26, 2009 1:46 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

He also swung at like 3 breaking balls in the dirt.

A few off a side-arming lefty which never got below the knees. He looks lost up there.

by rglass44 on Jun 26, 2009 1:48 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I have been a big supporter of Navi, but his approach, as shown here and elsewhere, is just the pits

I don’t see him as a particularly exceptional defender, either. Could he be trade bait in a package? Ride that All Star sheen?

So long, Sweet Lime!

by PlayOnWords on Jun 26, 2009 2:00 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Even with me.

I loved him since we acquired him. A lot of that was predicated on his on-base skills, though, much like Zobrist.

by rglass44 on Jun 26, 2009 2:07 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

FZo

I’d be curious to see what the GIDP #s look like in this context. Got any idea?

So long, Sweet Lime!

by PlayOnWords on Jun 26, 2009 2:23 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Can you elaborate?

GIDP on full counts?

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Jun 26, 2009 2:32 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

si

So long, Sweet Lime!

by PlayOnWords on Jun 26, 2009 2:32 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

rally killer stat

is where im going with that. for fun.

So long, Sweet Lime!

by PlayOnWords on Jun 26, 2009 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

What is the league average for catchers?

Not that I defend Navi, but my guess is that catchers as a whole have a higher rate than average due to them being pretty slow.

by wtbudlight on Jun 26, 2009 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Although it is frustrating to watch Navarro

swing and miss so much, it seems to me he is hitting more line drives this past month than earlier in the year when he appeared to constantly be popping up or hitting weak grounders. Even his foul balls are often well-struck. Is there any truth to that perception?

by bobr on Jun 26, 2009 2:24 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Navarro is hitting 19% liners in June.

18% overall, obviously that number was lower prior to June.

by R.J. Anderson on Jun 26, 2009 2:46 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think I pointed out his SLG is up month over month

but if navarro is never going to walk he will need to hit .300 to have a respectable OBP. Hes not going to be a consistent .300 hitter.

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Jun 26, 2009 2:47 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Right.

I’m curious as to why he’s fearful of walking all the sudden.

by R.J. Anderson on Jun 26, 2009 2:49 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm not sure what this means

How can you hustle or not hustle on a walk? I don’t really think there is such thing as hustling or not in a dead ball situation. It is like how some people complain about someone not hauling butt out to their position.

One thing I did notice. Navi seems to give 100% on offense but he seems very lazy (for a lack of a better word) on defense. My guess is that it isn’t intentional but rather he has fallen into some really bad habits.

by matthan on Jun 26, 2009 3:44 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

It was a joke

It was a stupid statement

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Jun 26, 2009 4:35 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

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