Gabe Gross: Not so average?

by B Ray on Jun 26, 2009 11:38 PM EDT Comment 13 comments

I think most of us who frequent this site are aware of Gabe Gross' unusual righty/lefty split this year (i.e. he's hitting righties like usual, murdering lefties), and after watching him nearly collect his second HR off lefty Renyel Pinto, I began to question the perception of Gross as a righty-only kind of guy. So, I took a gander at some of his statistics and produced a number of the following inquiries...

via cache.daylife.com

First, career Gross' splits (per Yahoo! Sports, bleh):

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
vs. Left	120	136	19	23	8	2	3	13	22	49	2	0	.169	.285	.324	.608
vs. Right	429	950	149	244	51	5	34	136	141	212	15	7	.257	.354	.428	.782

Obviously, Gross' recent prolific hitting hasn't affected his considerably dismal career numbers against left handed hitting. However, with only 136 AB in 120 games, Gabe No. 1 sees these left handers only one time around -- when he actually does see them. Delving further, we find that Gross has accumilated 68 of his 136 ABs (49%) during 2008 (mostly with the Rays). Before that year, he was seeing lefties 11-21 times a year.

This year, as noted earlier, he's doing much better vs. LHP:

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
vs. Left	10	14	5	5	2	1	1	7	4	2	1	0	.357	.500	.857	1.357
vs. Right	47	115	18	30	6	0	3	17	19	28	5	1	.261	.366	.391	.757

Now, here's where my informations end and my questions begin:

Is that sample size (136 ABs / 158 PAs) too small to determine whether or not he's suited for platoon work? I definately know that his 14 ABs (18 PAs) this year is too small to predict anything. But anectdotally he seems sharper against LHPs.
Is there some place I can get BABIP or any other advanced metrics vs. LHP? I just can't seem to find anything. Mayhaps Gross was unlucky in '08 against LHPs?
Seeing as how I can't seem to find minor league splits, I'm assuming he must have had a track record of struggling against LHPs, otherwise we wouldn't be where we are. Does anyone else know if this is actually the case?
Is it possible that his increased PAs against LHPs in 2008 resulted in a significant improvement in his ability to see their pitches? Is there any prescedant for this?

Could Gross, with his "averageness" against righties and a possible potential "averageness" against lefties and plus defense, actually be above average!?! [pause for effect]

With an everyday Gross, we could deal Kaplar -- who's too good to just sit, IMO -- and let Joyce incubate for as long as necessary. Who knows?

Let me know what you think.

Poll

Could Gross play everyday RF?

Yes.

18 votes

No.

16 votes

Maybe?

17 votes

Zobrist should play two positions. At once.

31 votes

82 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs | Comment 13 comments

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Comments

The larger sample size says Gross is quite poor against lefties.

He doesn’t have poor at-bats, he just doesn’t hit them very well.

by R.J. Anderson on Jun 26, 2009 11:50 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

The only real way to know this for sure is to try it.

To a lesser extent, it’s like Gomes. He may get his shot, but it won’t be here.

I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.

by kericr on Jun 27, 2009 12:01 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Gross is the perfect platoon mate

by matthan on Jun 27, 2009 12:16 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I calculated your babip's

v. LHP 09=.364
v. RHP 09=.321
v. LHP career=.238
v. RHP career=.296

He has been close as close to above average this year as he has been below average in his career vs. lefties.

Rays Win!

by Sandy Kazmir on Jun 27, 2009 12:54 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs

Well, hey! How'd you do that? Where'd you get those numbers?

The .239 BABIP vLHP seems to indicate his poor career no.s are the outlier. Naturally he can’t OPS 1.300 vLHP forever, but a .770 or so with his defense would be excellent, IMO.

B Rad the Ray Fan

by B Ray on Jun 27, 2009 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm not sure that it indicates an entire career of data is an outlier. If you want to check my math, find the splits on bref

and then just plug them into the formula for babip:

BABIP = {H-HR}/{AB-K-HR+SF}

Rays Win!

by Sandy Kazmir on Jun 27, 2009 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Maybe "outlier" was the wrong word.

I meant to say that his numbers vLHP are poised for a healthy regression, especially since his career BABIP is .295. I mean, it’s not like he runs to first slower when he’s batting lefties, is it?

B Rad the Ray Fan

by B Ray on Jun 27, 2009 7:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well, if you make weaker contact (more pop-ups, more weak ground balls, etc.) versus lefties, your BABIP will naturally be lower. He might not be in line for regression.

by 17843 on Jun 28, 2009 5:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I chose maybe.

He’ll probably regress, but it’ll be a fun ride

Brad Ziegler had a scoreless inning streak. Brad Ziegler had not met BJ Upton.

by P Brady on Jun 27, 2009 2:11 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

great picture

He should only platoon but his his .238 BABIP vs LHP is interesting, I wish I knew how to calculate what his slash line vs lefties would be if that number normalized (poorly veiled attempt at getting someone who does know how to make that happen run those numbers, thanks)

Kaz/Shields/Garza/Sonny/Price/Davis/Hellickson-necessitate a drool cup or a 7 man rotation

by CubFanRaysaddict on Jun 27, 2009 7:36 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs