Scott Kazmir's Start Comes Tomorrow

by R.J. Anderson on Jun 26, 2009 11:59 PM EDT

Lots of shuffling between Durham and St. Petersburg tonight, let's go step-by-step.

In the end, roster flexibility was the difference. Jeff Niemann has no options, Sonnanstine does, there was no way the Rays were going to designate Niemann for assignment, and sending him to the bullpen is a pretty good way to sap any potential trade value he has. For the short run, the difference between the two is quite marginal. Sonnanstine has a 6.01 tRA and 5.10 FIP; Niemann has a 5.44 tRA and 4.82 FIP. In the long run, things get murky. Sonnanstine's tRA* is 5.28 and his xFIP is 4.64; meanwhile Niemann has a 5.20 tRA* and a 5.50 xFIP. The regressions are heavily based upon inflated and deflated homeruns allowed rates.

Scott Kazmir to start Saturday

Hopefully Kazmir's Durham start is an indication of things to come. Don't expect the world in this first start back, otherwise you'll probably be disappointed. If Kazmir has regained 2006 or even 2008 form the Rays are a better team for it. If he's still the mess we saw in April...well, let's wait and see.

Winston Abreu designated for assignment

Sigh. So ends the Quada era.

Hopefully Abreu passes through waivers. I wouldn't be shocked to see a team like San Diego, Seattle, or Pittsburgh throw a claim his way. It's not that Abreu is an overly rare commodity, or even a valuable asset, it's just a bit confusing as to why the Rays would promote him instead of Dale Thayer and risk losing a lottery ticket for a few innings of mop-up work. Not many teams were lining up to give Abreu a roster spot prior to this season, maybe he's back closing in Durham next week after all.

At some point he's going to start drinking heavily before taking the mound in Triple-A. Just so has a challenge.

Chad Bradford added to the 25-man roster

FIP over the last three seasons: 2.53/3.56/4.08. ZiPS has Bradford at 3.39, CHONE at 3.86. If Bradford pitches somewhere in the middle he's the third best high-leverage reliever on the team behind Howell and Choate. Having a sure thing against righties who induces a ton of groundballs should be fun again. My umi says Bradford's delivery is fascinating.

David Price starts Sunday

Demoting Price to the bullpen makes no sense, especially if the goal is for him to learn a third pitch. Seriously, put Price in the pen and he turns into Matt Thornton. I'm not sure where Price falls the rest of the year, but at least he's fun to watch.

Jeff Niemann starts Monday

With Roy Halladay opposing him. Anyone who judges pitchers off wins and losses should A) stop, B) ignore this game as an evaluating tool for Niemann. The Rays offense is good, but it's Halladay.

Tweet Comment 40 comments | 0 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

I'm not a fan of getting rid of Abreu

Dillon would have been better

by matthan on Jun 27, 2009 12:04 AM EDT reply actions

serious why even keep Dillon

Sonny was used as a PH over him

Ricky Rubio has become my new man crush

by RaysOfHope on Jun 27, 2009 12:08 AM EDT up reply actions

I think Dillon may be gone before 10 days are up

DFAing Abreu gives them 10 days to figure out what to do. If someone needs to be removed from the 40-man, I wouldn’t be shocked if it’s someone else and Abreu ends up in AAA.

Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."

by Brickhaus on Jun 27, 2009 4:09 PM EDT up reply actions

anyone besides me not too happy with Kazmir and Price starting back to back

not only does it give opponents back to back looks at lefties (if that matters any) but more importantly both of those guys are highly likely to go 5 innings or less and highly unlikely to go 7 innings +. While they are sandwiched by 2 guys in Niemann and Shields who both can consistently go 7 innings it still has the makings to deflate the pen. This wouldn’t be as big of a problem if Dillon had been DFA’d and Abreu kept.

by Dbullsfan on Jun 27, 2009 12:07 AM EDT reply actions

I'm sure it'll get adjusted at the all star break

by matthan on Jun 27, 2009 12:08 AM EDT up reply actions

No matter how you slice it, the Rays are going to have a fear of 2 potentially volitle guys going back to back.

Shields and Garza can sandwich a potential fireman, but if we pretend that you put them in the 2 and for spots, you still have this problem when the rotation rolls from 5 back to 1.

I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.

by kericr on Jun 27, 2009 12:08 AM EDT up reply actions

Thats why I think this is an unique situation where a 13th arm would be wise

by matthan on Jun 27, 2009 12:11 AM EDT up reply actions

in theory if keeping Dillon around was because of Longoria's Hammy

we could always have Dale Thayer on call if we need to fly him down if the pen is taxed.

by Dbullsfan on Jun 27, 2009 12:22 AM EDT up reply actions

Niemann's average start is 5 innings as well, and that includes the CG. So three in a row averaging 5 IP per start.

13 pitchers seems like a very logical move, especially for the next three days….

by Doyouseeit? on Jun 27, 2009 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions

very good points.

by walkoffwalk on Jun 27, 2009 4:43 PM EDT up reply actions

When Niemann wins this game by 14 runs, I'm going to burn my Shields jersey.

I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.

by kericr on Jun 27, 2009 12:07 AM EDT reply actions

I'll hold you to it

We need Robots....The time is now Bud, Stern, and Goodell.
Seriously, Officiating Sucks in this Country

by 4QB on Jun 27, 2009 8:08 AM EDT up reply actions

I'm actually working on a piece that shows Sonny should be 2nd on the team in wins with Neimann having the most losses on the team

Given a constant offensive output. Of course there are other ways to look at it that shows Sonny as the one performing poorly.

Although the hypothetical w’s and l’s portion may not be exact since I’m not using the absolute correct FIP formula. I’m just using 3.2 as a constant across the board since thats really all the info i can easily get. It won’t really make a difference since I’m just comparing members of the same team rather than across teams

by matthan on Jun 27, 2009 12:07 AM EDT reply actions

Ooops

Not performing poorly. Performing worse would be the better way to put it

by matthan on Jun 27, 2009 12:09 AM EDT up reply actions

I think the constant this year is 3.15, for what it's worth.

by R.J. Anderson on Jun 27, 2009 12:11 AM EDT up reply actions

Ah thanks

I have all the formulas refering to one cell so that would be easy to change. Either way I’m comparing the pitchers so it wouldn’t really make it or break it if my FIPs are a tad bit high across the board as long as its consistent

by matthan on Jun 27, 2009 12:13 AM EDT up reply actions