James Shields Stays True To Form In Rays 7-3 Victory Over Marlins.
James Shields was very James Shields-like last night. 6.2 IP, 9 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 5, 1 HR. This is basically your normal Shieldsian effort. After a little trouble in the second inning with the bases loaded, Shields barrelled down and continued to limit the damage through out the rest of his outing. Shields would get a no decision, but for six innings he kept his team in the game against of the better arms in baseball, Josh Johnson.
Once again, Shields used his entire arsenal of pitches. He threw a combined (two seam and four seam) 34% fastballs, 21% change ups, 23% sliders, 17% curveballs, 5% cutters. Overall, he threw 65% of his pitches for strikes. The key for Shields was mixing up all his pitches in different spots. Just check out this chart from brooksbaseball.
As I pointed out a few weeks ago, Shields continues to use his slider while limiting his cutters and the results continue to show. In his past six starts, Shields is 3-1 with a 3.05 ERA/2.57 FIP. He has just four walks in his past 41 innings and has a K/BB of 7.25 during the stretch.
Also, how good is J.P. Howell? 11 pitches to record the final four outs...J.P. in game chilled...quickly.
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We need to spend money on a real closer
Like K-Rod
by Jason Collette on Jun 27, 2009 10:45 AM EDT reply actions
Anyone see Jason Hammel lately?
Nice to see him turn it around
3.73 FIP and 2+ BB/9
he is a good example of why I think we really should trade either Niemann or Sonny by the deadline
We are more than likely going to move one of them eventually and the longer we wait the lower their value will be. We got next to nothing for JH because teams knew we basically had to get rid of him, if we wait till the off-season (when Davis is added to the rotation) we will have the same issue with Sonny and/or Niemann.
You make a very valid point
I’m sure some of the hierarchy view Aneury as the next Johan, but as of today we missed on Hammel
Haha, what a goofy statement
Maybe I’m just an old fashioned BJ suck-off-er. (Good call Sandy)
by Lurch's Lobbyists on Jun 27, 2009 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions
what do you mean we missed on hammel? cause he's doing okay in the NL?
by walkoffwalk on Jun 27, 2009 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm saying he's doing better than our 4 and 5 SP
he’s been able to up his K total and lower his BB
He’d probably be in our rotation right now, pitching like this
No, but the difference wouldn't come close to covering the gulf between their stats
It is really fishy how pitchers get better right after they leave..
That is a bit problematic
It is hard for us to properly evaluate in terms of trades and our roster in general if players are not hitting their potential here
who is to say Niemann wouldn't be doing a lot better if he were facing the AL West
instead of the AL East. you are looking at the best/worst offensive divisions in baseball.
Or he could be doing better because of better coaching
Honestly adjusting for divisions at this point on the season is so minor and the differences in the stats are so large. Neimann has how many starts vs ALE opponents? Given the low number of starts there is just no way it makes up that large of a difference
Players are in fact getting better
Honestly adjusting for divisions at this point on the season is so minor and the differences in the stats are so large.
The same could be said about random variation.
19 ER 55 2/3 innings outside the ALE 15 ER in 16 2/3
While it is early in the season here are Niemann’s splits per divison.
AL East- 16 2/3 innings 15 ER
Outside the AL East 55 2/3 innings 19 ER
I don't know where to get those stats and understand them all that much to be honest
but I would imagine that there is a pretty big split using most if not all stats.
The problem with this is you are only looking at Neimann. While the ALE does have the best offenses the discrepancy is not that large. You can’t give Neimann credit for failing far worse vs the ALE than the typical pitcher.
I was just going about it thinking that if Niemann were in Detroit or Colorado
he may have better numbers given what he has done this season.
I’m sure he would. I’m saying if Neimann and Hammel pitched against the same exact teams that Hammel would have superior numbers. Hammel has a 3.73 FIP and Neimann a 4.81. There is no way Neimann makes up that if the schedules were even.
Remember Hammel pitches in freaking Colorado too.
Before the season? no
But now the evidence against Hickey is really piling up. If a similar case took place next year, say with Neimann, then I would predict a step in the right direction for the player under the guidance of a different pitching coach.
It may be something else here (IE Navarro)
However it is awfully coincidental that pitchers seem to get better when they go to Hickey and get worse when they get Hickey. And its not like he had a great track record in Houston.
I can't type
They get better when they get away from Hickey
I'm sure
I don’t blame Friedman for the trades. I’m sure he got the best value given the circumstances. I just think our coaches clearly missed something, and when you are that far pushed into a corner it causes bad deals to be put on the table.
If everything was in synch we should have traded Neimann last year and Jackson this year and kept Hammel. We would have gotten the most via trades and kept the payroll down.
Of course that is all hindsight.
I don't think they are this good either
I would definitely take both over Neimann long term. And certainly Jackson over Sonny. At this stage of the game I see Sonny and Hammel as about equals. Mid to low 4 FIPs for both of them. EJax about 4.
Ugh
You are really selling me. If the argument against dropping him is pitching coaches are of little value, then what harm is a change?
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I still think your underestimating opponents
Hammel has made starts against
SD (2), SF, Fla, Hou(2), Atl, Det, Mil, Sea, Pitt, Oak
and as far as playing in Colorado his 6 home starts were against SD(2), Fla, Hou, Sea, Pitt. That is far from murderers row.
more on my point, runs per game for those opponents
SD (30)
SF (29)
FL (13)
Hou(26)
Atl (22)
Det(11)
Mil (14)
Sea(28)
Pitt(19)
Oak(24)
The Rays are not reading poor pitchers, but Jackson was going to make too much money and Hammel was out of options.
The Rays felt they had conparable options in house that could fill those roles. I expected both Hammel & Jackson to have success, they were good pitchers here.
No
Have you seen what the RF platoon is doing? We’ve had the second-best production out of our RF in all of baseball (only the D-Backs is higher).
I know.
It is a little frustrating seeing guys leave here and do better, but it has been less than half a season. This FO doesn’t have merely a half season in their minds. They look further down the line than that. If Jackson and Hammel figured it out that’s great, and maybe we should look into what’s going on here.
I'm on the fence with Hickey
Is Bosman still pitching coordinator?
Don't know.
Like I said above, I’m hesitant to put too much stock in the role of the pitching coach.
Well the Joyce trade remains to be seen
Safe to say we gave away Hammel
We would have had to DFA him.
We at least got something. It’s not as if we could have just kept him unless we give up on Percy (which I would have preferred). I don’t remember anyone clamoring to keep Hammel or put him in the rotation.
I think the message most are trying to convey is trade these guys
when they have value to other teams, not when other teams know we muct make a deal
Other teams can look ahead too.
It’s also important to keep depth in the system. Look at what it has done for us so far this year.
I have gone on record as saying Friedman is the absolute best
at putting together a 40 man roster
I think my point was that for some reason these players aren’t reaching anything close to their potential here. This hurts our trade returns. I understand your point about options and other teams knowing the same things as we do. That just means we even need more foresight. I know we love to hoard young talent, but if we allow ourselves to backed into a corner before we make a move then we just aren’t going to get value.
We are one of the best teams in baseball.
We have one of the best farm systems in baseball. Why worry about what you get for a few fringe average starters that had no place on the team? It’s really splitting hairs.
Because the only way a franchise with our payroll limitations suceeds longterm is by maxmizing our assets, or getting close to it
We definitely did not with Jackson or Hammel. We missed big time.
Joyce may turn out to be a stud, but given what the league sees in Jackson now we could have gotten someone quite a bit better.

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