James Shields Stays True To Form In Rays 7-3 Victory Over Marlins.

by Tommy Rancel on Jun 27, 2009 10:21 AM EDT Comment 67 comments

James Shields was very James Shields-like last night. 6.2 IP, 9 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 5, 1 HR. This is basically your normal Shieldsian effort. After a little trouble in the second inning with the bases loaded, Shields barrelled down and continued to limit the damage through out the rest of his outing. Shields would get a no decision, but for six innings he kept his team in the game against of the better arms in baseball, Josh Johnson.

Once again, Shields used his entire arsenal of pitches. He threw a combined (two seam and four seam) 34% fastballs, 21% change ups, 23% sliders, 17% curveballs, 5% cutters. Overall, he threw 65% of his pitches for strikes. The key for Shields was mixing up all his pitches in different spots. Just check out this chart from brooksbaseball.

via brooksbaseball.net

As I pointed out a few weeks ago, Shields continues to use his slider while limiting his cutters and the results continue to show. In his past six starts, Shields is 3-1 with a 3.05 ERA/2.57 FIP. He has just four walks in his past 41 innings and has a K/BB of 7.25 during the stretch.

Also, how good is J.P. Howell? 11 pitches to record the final four outs...J.P. in game chilled...quickly.

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We need to spend money on a real closer

Like K-Rod

What's on my mind

by Jason Collette on Jun 27, 2009 10:45 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

nah, Kerry Wood for $20.5 million seems like a deal to me

by Raymondo on Jun 27, 2009 12:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Gagner is French for To Win

I’m sold

Rays Win!

by Sandy Kazmir on Jun 27, 2009 4:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Anyone see Jason Hammel lately?

Nice to see him turn it around

3.73 FIP and 2+ BB/9

by Raymondo on Jun 27, 2009 12:42 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

he is a good example of why I think we really should trade either Niemann or Sonny by the deadline

We are more than likely going to move one of them eventually and the longer we wait the lower their value will be. We got next to nothing for JH because teams knew we basically had to get rid of him, if we wait till the off-season (when Davis is added to the rotation) we will have the same issue with Sonny and/or Niemann.

by Dbullsfan on Jun 27, 2009 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Just package either as "Hey, pitchers leave here and really become good" :(

What's on my mind

by Jason Collette on Jun 27, 2009 12:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You make a very valid point

I’m sure some of the hierarchy view Aneury as the next Johan, but as of today we missed on Hammel

by Raymondo on Jun 27, 2009 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Haha, what a goofy statement

Maybe I’m just an old fashioned BJ suck-off-er. (Good call Sandy)

by Lurch's Lobbyists on Jun 27, 2009 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

what do you mean we missed on hammel? cause he's doing okay in the NL?

by walkoffwalk on Jun 27, 2009 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm saying he's doing better than our 4 and 5 SP

he’s been able to up his K total and lower his BB

He’d probably be in our rotation right now, pitching like this

by Raymondo on Jun 27, 2009 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not AL East makes a difference

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Jun 27, 2009 3:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You don't think pitching in the NL where the 8th hitter sucks and the 9th hitter is a pitcher has anything to do with it?

by walkoffwalk on Jun 27, 2009 4:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

No, but the difference wouldn't come close to covering the gulf between their stats

It is really fishy how pitchers get better right after they leave..

by matthan on Jun 27, 2009 1:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The problem i find here time after time is admitting thast an ex Ray could possibly do well elsewhere

by Raymondo on Jun 27, 2009 1:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

That is a bit problematic

It is hard for us to properly evaluate in terms of trades and our roster in general if players are not hitting their potential here

by matthan on Jun 27, 2009 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I agree, but wouldn't it be nice if we had a bit of luck and had traded Niemann and kept Hammel

by Raymondo on Jun 27, 2009 1:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

who is to say Niemann wouldn't be doing a lot better if he were facing the AL West

instead of the AL East. you are looking at the best/worst offensive divisions in baseball.

by Dbullsfan on Jun 27, 2009 1:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Or he could be doing better because of better coaching

Honestly adjusting for divisions at this point on the season is so minor and the differences in the stats are so large. Neimann has how many starts vs ALE opponents? Given the low number of starts there is just no way it makes up that large of a difference

Players are in fact getting better

by matthan on Jun 27, 2009 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Honestly adjusting for divisions at this point on the season is so minor and the differences in the stats are so large.

The same could be said about random variation.

by rglass44 on Jun 27, 2009 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

19 ER 55 2/3 innings outside the ALE 15 ER in 16 2/3

While it is early in the season here are Niemann’s splits per divison.

AL East- 16 2/3 innings 15 ER
Outside the AL East 55 2/3 innings 19 ER

by Dbullsfan on Jun 27, 2009 2:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Wonder about the FIPs?

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by FreeZorilla on Jun 27, 2009 3:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't know where to get those stats and understand them all that much to be honest

but I would imagine that there is a pretty big split using most if not all stats.

by Dbullsfan on Jun 27, 2009 3:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The problem with this is you are only looking at Neimann. While the ALE does have the best offenses the discrepancy is not that large. You can’t give Neimann credit for failing far worse vs the ALE than the typical pitcher.

by matthan on Jun 27, 2009 3:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I was just going about it thinking that if Niemann were in Detroit or Colorado

he may have better numbers given what he has done this season.

by Dbullsfan on Jun 27, 2009 3:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I’m sure he would. I’m saying if Neimann and Hammel pitched against the same exact teams that Hammel would have superior numbers. Hammel has a 3.73 FIP and Neimann a 4.81. There is no way Neimann makes up that if the schedules were even.

Remember Hammel pitches in freaking Colorado too.

by matthan on Jun 27, 2009 3:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Did you predict that Hammel would be better?

by rglass44 on Jun 27, 2009 3:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Before the season? no

But now the evidence against Hickey is really piling up. If a similar case took place next year, say with Neimann, then I would predict a step in the right direction for the player under the guidance of a different pitching coach.

by matthan on Jun 27, 2009 3:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

We'll see.

I’m hesitant to put much stock in the effects of pitching coaches.

by rglass44 on Jun 27, 2009 4:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

It may be something else here (IE Navarro)

However it is awfully coincidental that pitchers seem to get better when they go to Hickey and get worse when they get Hickey. And its not like he had a great track record in Houston.

by matthan on Jun 27, 2009 4:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I can't type

They get better when they get away from Hickey

by matthan on Jun 27, 2009 4:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I imagine the FO will look into it.

by rglass44 on Jun 27, 2009 4:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm sure

I don’t blame Friedman for the trades. I’m sure he got the best value given the circumstances. I just think our coaches clearly missed something, and when you are that far pushed into a corner it causes bad deals to be put on the table.

If everything was in synch we should have traded Neimann last year and Jackson this year and kept Hammel. We would have gotten the most via trades and kept the payroll down.

Of course that is all hindsight.

by matthan on Jun 27, 2009 4:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't buy Hammel or Jackson being this good.

by rglass44 on Jun 27, 2009 4:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't think they are this good either

I would definitely take both over Neimann long term. And certainly Jackson over Sonny. At this stage of the game I see Sonny and Hammel as about equals. Mid to low 4 FIPs for both of them. EJax about 4.

by matthan on Jun 27, 2009 4:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ugh

You are really selling me. If the argument against dropping him is pitching coaches are of little value, then what harm is a change?

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by FreeZorilla on Jun 27, 2009 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I still think your underestimating opponents

Hammel has made starts against

SD (2), SF, Fla, Hou(2), Atl, Det, Mil, Sea, Pitt, Oak

and as far as playing in Colorado his 6 home starts were against SD(2), Fla, Hou, Sea, Pitt. That is far from murderers row.

by Dbullsfan on Jun 27, 2009 4:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

lol

by rglass44 on Jun 27, 2009 4:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

more on my point, runs per game for those opponents

SD (30)
SF (29)
FL (13)
Hou(26)
Atl (22)
Det(11)
Mil (14)
Sea(28)
Pitt(19)
Oak(24)

by Dbullsfan on Jun 27, 2009 4:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

* correction total runs, but I imagine rpg isn't too far off.

by Dbullsfan on Jun 27, 2009 4:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The Rays are not reading poor pitchers, but Jackson was going to make too much money and Hammel was out of options.

The Rays felt they had conparable options in house that could fill those roles. I expected both Hammel & Jackson to have success, they were good pitchers here.

by Doyouseeit? on Jun 27, 2009 1:14 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

*trading poor pitchers

by Doyouseeit? on Jun 27, 2009 1:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think the complaint is the value at this point is less than equal

by Raymondo on Jun 27, 2009 1:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Agreed, but lack of option years for Hammel and team control of Joyce vs Jackson were major factors.

by Doyouseeit? on Jun 27, 2009 2:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Quit being short-sighted.

by rglass44 on Jun 27, 2009 3:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm very dissapointed in Joyce since being sent down. Aren't you?

by Raymondo on Jun 27, 2009 3:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

No

Have you seen what the RF platoon is doing? We’ve had the second-best production out of our RF in all of baseball (only the D-Backs is higher).

by rglass44 on Jun 27, 2009 3:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

What does that have to do with Joyce sucking in Durham?

by Raymondo on Jun 27, 2009 3:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Once again...

Quit being short-sighted. Why worry about a couple hundred AAA ABs?

by rglass44 on Jun 27, 2009 3:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Just a discussion, that's all

by Raymondo on Jun 27, 2009 3:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I know.

It is a little frustrating seeing guys leave here and do better, but it has been less than half a season. This FO doesn’t have merely a half season in their minds. They look further down the line than that. If Jackson and Hammel figured it out that’s great, and maybe we should look into what’s going on here.

by rglass44 on Jun 27, 2009 3:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm on the fence with Hickey

Is Bosman still pitching coordinator?

by Raymondo on Jun 27, 2009 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Don't know.

Like I said above, I’m hesitant to put too much stock in the role of the pitching coach.

by rglass44 on Jun 27, 2009 4:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well the Joyce trade remains to be seen

Safe to say we gave away Hammel

by matthan on Jun 27, 2009 3:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

And Joyce is no kid, he's older than BJ

by Raymondo on Jun 27, 2009 3:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

We would have had to DFA him.

We at least got something. It’s not as if we could have just kept him unless we give up on Percy (which I would have preferred). I don’t remember anyone clamoring to keep Hammel or put him in the rotation.

by rglass44 on Jun 27, 2009 3:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think the message most are trying to convey is trade these guys

when they have value to other teams, not when other teams know we muct make a deal

by Raymondo on Jun 27, 2009 3:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Other teams can look ahead too.

It’s also important to keep depth in the system. Look at what it has done for us so far this year.

by rglass44 on Jun 27, 2009 3:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I have gone on record as saying Friedman is the absolute best

at putting together a 40 man roster

by Raymondo on Jun 27, 2009 3:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Exactly.

by rglass44 on Jun 27, 2009 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

woohoo James Houser

but no seriously, AF is pretty good at his job.

by Dbullsfan on Jun 27, 2009 4:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think my point was that for some reason these players aren’t reaching anything close to their potential here. This hurts our trade returns. I understand your point about options and other teams knowing the same things as we do. That just means we even need more foresight. I know we love to hoard young talent, but if we allow ourselves to backed into a corner before we make a move then we just aren’t going to get value.

by matthan on Jun 27, 2009 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

We are one of the best teams in baseball.

We have one of the best farm systems in baseball. Why worry about what you get for a few fringe average starters that had no place on the team? It’s really splitting hairs.

by rglass44 on Jun 27, 2009 4:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs