Updated Deserved Wins

by Sandy Kazmir on Jun 28, 2009 11:15 PM EDT Comment 7 comments

I've updated the FIP look I did the other day and thought you guys might find it interesting. I have made the workbooks more user friendly, though it is still a process. I now have the Red Sox and Yankees so here we go:

Pitcher	FIP	PROBw	Starts	Est. Wins
Sabathia	3.76	70.4%	16	11.27
Beckett	3.33	73.2%	15	10.99
Shields	3.79	64.4%	16	10.30
Pettitte	4.57	61.3%	15	9.20
Burnett	4.96	59.5%	15	8.93
Lester	3.85	56.8%	15	8.51
Wakefield	4.28	59.3%	14	8.30
Chamberlain	3.62	63.8%	13	8.30
Penny	4.72	58.6%	14	8.21
Garza	4.67	51.1%	15	7.67
Sonnanstine	5.63	46.1%	15	6.92
Niemann	4.81	44.4%	14	6.21
Kazmir	5.93	43.4%	10	4.34
Matsuzaka	3.75	68.0%	6	4.08
Hughes	6.25	49.4%	7	3.46
Masterson	6.23	38.2%	8	3.05
Wang	7.40	30.6%	7	2.14
Price	5.82	34.0%	6	2.04

Team x Team

Pitcher	FIP	PROBw	Starts	Est. Wins
Shields	3.79	64.4%	16	10.30
Garza	4.67	51.1%	15	7.67
Sonnanstine	5.63	46.1%	15	6.92
Niemann	4.81	44.4%	14	6.21
Kazmir	5.93	43.4%	10	4.34
Price	5.82	34.0%	6	2.04
Team	4.96	49.3%	76	37.49

Pitcher	FIP	PROBw	Starts	Est. Wins
Beckett	3.33	73.2%	15	10.99
Lester	3.85	56.8%	15	8.51
Wakefield	4.28	59.3%	14	8.30
Penny	4.72	58.6%	14	8.21
Masterson	6.23	38.2%	8	3.05
Matsuzaka	3.75	68.0%	6	4.08
Team	4.25	59.9%	72	43.14

Pitcher	FIP	PROBw	Starts	Est. Wins
Sabathia	3.76	70.4%	16	11.27
Pettitte	4.57	61.3%	15	9.20
Burnett	4.96	59.5%	15	8.93
Chamberlain	3.62	63.8%	13	8.30
Hughes	6.25	49.4%	7	3.46
Wang	7.40	30.6%	7	2.14
Team	4.74	59.3%	73	43.30

This does not include Price's fine start today, but it does factor in a start where Joba put up a .16 FIP due to only pitcher 2/3rds of an inning.

Google Docs

RAYS

RED SOX

YANKEES

Lastly, I wanted to break this down to show the average for what should be the various starter spots. It won't mean much quite yet, but as we get more data, it will become more meaningful, and hopefully end up with something like Graham or Matthew's (Sorry dudes I can't remember which) look last year, using tRA, to see the thresholds between the various starter spots.

Pitcher	FIP	PROBw	Starts	Est. Wins
1	3.63	69%	15.7	10.85
2	4.46	59%	15.0	8.88
3	4.21	61%	13.7	8.27
4	5.04	47%	14.7	6.93
5	5.31	54%	7.7	3.96
6	6.48	34%	7.0	2.41

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Comments

Excellent work

You probably should mention that the probability is based upon the distribution of FIPagainst (basically the teams offense). So in general people should not try to compare wins across teams since it is relative to the teams offense. Of course these three teams have similar offenses so the differences would be large.

I wonder how the est wins would change if instead of the FIPagainst for that particular team we used the league average FIPa

by matthan on Jun 28, 2009 11:45 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

You are correct sir (I miss you already Eddie Mac)

Thank you for stating it directly. I have a layover on my flight home tonight, I will try to take a look at the extreme teams next (high offense, low pitching, and vice-versa), though I really want to see what Doc has earned.

Rays Win!

by Sandy Kazmir on Jun 29, 2009 8:16 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

What I find interesting is that this shows how variable the Rays offense has been

Yes its been the most potent in the league in terms of runs, but it has not been the most variables. A team that scores less but has less variability is actually more valuable. Although I can’t compare their FIPa’s since for some reason those cells in those workbooks show as errors. No biggie though

by matthan on Jun 28, 2009 11:54 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Try pasting as values

Rays Win!

by Sandy Kazmir on Jun 29, 2009 7:19 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Pick another pic

Swav or Die
For the lulz

by SRQman on Jun 29, 2009 1:03 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Are these "estimated WINZ" or "estimated team wins when each pitcher has started the game"?

They seem to add up to a high number, making me think it’s the second.

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by Sky Kalkman on Jun 29, 2009 8:28 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

The comparison is between Team starters vs. all opposition pitchers (assuming 9 innings)

Since this omits the effect of relievers, I would say Starter Wins. After revamping the workbooks all night, they are pretty much good to go. I just want to write up a methodology and then I will get everything over to you.

Rays Win!

by Sandy Kazmir on Jun 29, 2009 8:42 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs