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Around SBN: Post-UNC Thoughts

Series Preview: 6/29-7/1 Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays

6/29: Jeff Niemann vs. Roy Halladay (7:07 SS)

6/30: Matt Garza vs. Scott Richmond (7:07 SS)

7/1: James Shields vs. Ricky Romero (1:07 FSF)

Playoff odds

Coolstandings: 49%

BP (PECOTA): 25%

BP (no PECOTA): 57%

After the jump, a Q&A with Tom Dakers of Bluebird Banter

Star-divide

 You get to watch Roy Halladay pitch every five days. I'm envious. On a scale of 1 through cat, how awesome is he?

There is no possible way to describe how awesome he is. I can't compare him to anyone really. In every start this season, except for the one that he got the strained groin in, he pitched at least 7 innings. He is so focused.

Will Carroll, on the Baseball Prospectus website, in one of the dumber things I've ever read, said CC Sabathia "may be one of the most purpose-built athletes around". If that is true, I have no idea what Doc is doing, but everything he does is to make sure he's as mentally and physically prepared to pitch each start as humanly possible.


Marco Scutaro went from the guy Billy Beane didn't even want to one of the best shortstops in the league, two years running. What in the world happened?

What happened is he finally has been given a full time job. His defense has been terrific, he is sure handed and makes all the plays he is supposed to and he makes a number of highlight reel plays as well.

I wasn't thrilled when Cito decided he ought to be our lead off hitter this season, but he has taken to the job with a real intelligence. He sees a lot a pitches, takes a lot of walks but when there is a pitch in his zone he hits it hard. So he's won me over.

If Scott Downs were healthy, I would argue we have the two best relievers in the division facing off with Downs and J.P. Howell. He's not though, so who should we expect to see in the latter innings for the Jays?

Our bullpen situation is, I guess fluid would be the term. But it looks like Cito Gaston has settled on Jason Frasor as the closer. He seems to be just going with whoever he thinks is the hot hand at the moment for the setup man job. Most of the guys in that role have been running hot and cold. We are hoping Downs returns to the team in early July. That should give us more defined roles in the pen and should help everyone out.


Given the proximity to the trade deadline and the Jays relative playoff odds, what are the chances J.P. Ricciardi makes a move or two down the stretch?

Is 'I hope so' an answer? The team has said they would add salary if we are close. I am so tired of watching Kevin Millar. Figure if you can't hit and can't field, likely your shouldn't have a job on the team. We really could use a bat, one more bat to DH or play LF. I hope JP pulls the trigger.

Being Canada's only team, are there a lot more Blue Jays fans nowadays, or did all the Expos fans become apathetic towards the game?

I think likely Expos fans were apathetic to baseball after the strike cost them a shot at the playoffs. I'm not sure there was Expo fan base after that moment. Basically the sport of choice on this side of the border is hockey, but those of us that like baseball do follow the Jays.

Montreal did have a long baseball history, the Dodgers had their Triple-A team there for year and Jackie Robinson played there before becoming a Dodger. But baseball did everything it could to kill of baseball there and it worked. I'm not sure there is anyone left in Quebec that follow the game

---.

Big thanks to Tom, and be sure to check out my portion on BB.

0 recs  |  Comment 95 comments |

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The only important fact:

9 of the Rays next 22 games are against the Blue Jays.

I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.

by kericr on Jun 29, 2009 12:47 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Also of note: 16 of those 22 games are road games.

There’s a pretty good chance that the success of the Rays season rides on this stretch.

I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.

by kericr on Jun 29, 2009 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

But at last we're at near full strength, so no excuses

i expect us to do well

Good pitching is the key, a one hitter v TEX last night in Arlington

by Raymondo on Jun 29, 2009 1:01 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

after those 16 roadies...

home stretch has 30 home games and only 17 road games.

by Jason Collette on Jun 29, 2009 1:33 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'd love too see Bradley do some giga-punch action on some water coolers.

I wanted him here. I kinda feel sorry for him and his slump.

I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.

by kericr on Jun 29, 2009 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Fuck him, he's is own worst enemy

every team can’t be wrong, at some point one needs to look in the mirror

Pinella and him were only a matter of time

by Raymondo on Jun 29, 2009 1:02 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

You nor I know him personally.

Trying to make character judgments from afar is pointless.

by R.J. Anderson on Jun 29, 2009 1:14 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

As it turns out, neither Bradley or Burrell were the answer

and Ibanez and Abreu are hurt, and Giambi is sucking

by Raymondo on Jun 29, 2009 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Ibanez' Type-A status never made him an option anyways.

And I didn’t think we could really go wrong out of the other four.

by R.J. Anderson on Jun 29, 2009 1:18 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

KAPLER SHOULD FACE RIGHTIES

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Jun 29, 2009 1:47 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Kapler needs to be starting CF.

Bossman Junior’s laziness fits in much better with a platoon in right. He gets to work less days and cover less space.

Kap’s got the grit to handle centerfield. He doesn’t catch fly balls – he intimidates them into falling into his glove.

by Suttree on Jun 29, 2009 1:49 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I said in the off season

To make Aybar the DH. Go after some Bullpen help. I wanted Percy and Wheeler gone.

Aybar at DH for a year wouldn’t be so bad and if Aybar showcases well he makes for excellent trade bait. Or fill in for other injuries while here.

by PewterPirate55 on Jun 29, 2009 3:50 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Not to mention Rodriguez, Day, Bateman, DePaula, and Isringhausen.

We acquired a ton of pen depth. None were big names, but all were potentially useful.

by R.J. Anderson on Jun 29, 2009 4:14 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm all for getting a bunch of "crap"** and throwing it against the wall to see what sticks

Of course the problem IMO is when one of the pieces, Abreu, dominates yet we don’t use him. Its useful because you can catch lightning in a bottle with great talent (ala Balfour), but if you don’t give them a shot then it is relatively pointless.

**crap as in nobody else really wanted these players.

by matthan on Jun 29, 2009 4:21 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Choate and Nellie have worked out nicely.

It’d be nice if they had kept Abreu and given him some more chances, but they’re probably banking on him making it through waivers and coming up once Longo’s hammies are feeling better. If he doesn’t, well, we still have Thayer and the pen’s been just fine without Abreu playing a larger role.

by Suttree on Jun 29, 2009 4:32 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Abreu had an opt-out clause two days after being called up.

Which explains why they brought him up instead of Thayer, he could’ve left on his own, at least now we have a chance of keeping him.

Should he have a spot? Probably. Wheeler has been used better as of late though, and Nelson is the only guy you could seriously talk about dumping.

by R.J. Anderson on Jun 29, 2009 4:34 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Is there any truth to Wheels developing a sinker?

I was at the game Saturday sitting in an obstructed viewing area so I didn’t get a good look at the plate, but he generated two ground balls and a fly ball.

by Suttree on Jun 29, 2009 4:38 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

He calls it a splitter.

I’ve been meaning to get pitchfx data on it. Thanks for bringing it up. I’ll start skimming for it.

by R.J. Anderson on Jun 29, 2009 4:40 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

46.4% GB this month

Hasn’t been under 40 since 2004
28.4% last year

This is good

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Jun 29, 2009 5:17 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Bah. They're like the same thing.

Slightly different grip, but both break downward at the knees. I guess the sinker technically adds a little horizontal movement and drops deeper, but same effect – keep the ball low and generate groundouts, which would be pretty huge for Wheels.

by Suttree on Jun 29, 2009 4:46 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I wasn't saying you were wrong.

I’m just saying that’s what he calls it.

by R.J. Anderson on Jun 29, 2009 4:51 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm not sure there is much of a difference.

I’m looking at some of his gamecharts on FG, and the only difference between some of his change-ups and the splitter is velocity. It sits about 3-4 MPH higher. I’m guessing he has decent command of it though.

Also, doesn’t look like he threw one on Saturday, instead curves/sliders.

by R.J. Anderson on Jun 29, 2009 4:59 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I figured the groundballs might have come off sliders. Like I said, I couldn't see well.

I wonder if Hickey/Maddon told him to stop relying on his fastball and pitch backwards. I don’t recall the curve being a big part of his routine before.

by Suttree on Jun 29, 2009 5:05 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I would argue that the majority of our team IS so-called crap.

In terms of guys nobody wanted; Pena, Aybar was dumped, Gross was dumped, Kapler, Shouse, and Iwamura were essentially free major league contributors on the open market, and so on.

Acquire a few superstars and throw average crap around them, you’ll make the playoffs most years.

by R.J. Anderson on Jun 29, 2009 4:37 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

If Burrell hit as he was supposed to...

Then picking up a DH was much more valuable. It kept the depth and flexibility that the Rays needed.

Burrell had an OPS+ of 120 over the past four seasons, I don’t think anyone saw him falling off a cliff like he did this year. And if he did, then they always have Aybar as depth.

by tallyray on Jun 29, 2009 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Actually I'm the one in love with him, so to speak.

I equate him to a Porsche though. When it goes, it goes like fucking stink. All you’ve got to do is keep it out of the garage. Therein lies the problem.

Again, with his ‘personal problems’ I find it extremely odd that many MANY times, the other person in the equation is ultimately found to have some level of fault. Pinella literally called Bradley a piece of shit because he punched a water cooler. Regardless of context, that’s not appropriate.

I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.

by kericr on Jun 29, 2009 1:49 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

That's the point I'm trying to make. He's always ultimately getting an apology.

In my eyes, that might make him overly sensitive, but a cancer he is not.

I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.

by kericr on Jun 29, 2009 1:52 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Right. Same thing with the Pads.

It’s not like he imploded in the locker room. Even with the umpire things, it’s not like Carl Everett head butting the ump simply because of a bad call. The ump talked shit and Bradley flipped out over it and hurt himself. A little bit silly, absolutely, but not cancerous.

He was a perfect citizen with the Rangers, and the A’s only traded him because they couldn’t afford him.

It reeks a little bit of racism. Youkilis acts like a dick all the time, and started a fight because MANNY OF ALL PEOPLE thought Youk didn’t give a shit about the team. Paul O’Neill through tantrums all the time, but that was okay?

by Suttree on Jun 29, 2009 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

That umpire called him a racial slur.

I’m not sure many people react much differently, or as well, as Bradley did when faced in that situation.

by R.J. Anderson on Jun 29, 2009 2:05 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

That's what I thought, but I wasn't sure.

I love the clip of that ump telling Matt Kemp,“NO, I AM NOT FUCKING KIDDING YOU” after a called third strike.

by Suttree on Jun 29, 2009 2:07 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

clips or its you who said that to kemp in response to

his balking at your request to eat french toast crunch out of his jock strap.

So long, Sweet Lime!

by PlayOnWords on Jun 29, 2009 3:01 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

For those interested.

Marquis Fleming is on Twitter.

http://twitter.com/THE_REAL_QUIS/

Seems like a decent guy, and he’s a good pitcher so.

by R.J. Anderson on Jun 29, 2009 1:10 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Do the playoff projection %'s

give any bias based on division vs wild card? I’d be interested to see our divisional chances versus wild card, sitting 5 and 2 back respectively.

Makes me sick to look at other divisions and see where the Rays would/could be.

by Buc Wild on Jun 29, 2009 1:52 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Yessir.

Each gives a division and wild card split.

coolstandings.com
And
http://baseballprospectus.com/statistics/sortable/

Bottom right hand corner on the BP site.

by R.J. Anderson on Jun 29, 2009 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Sweet
very helpful. Looks like the AL East is set to throw 2 teams in the playoffs (again). Those 11 games against the Yanks, particularly the last 3 seem pretty damn important. But i guess we gotta get to that point and still be in the race to make them count.

by Buc Wild on Jun 29, 2009 2:06 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Another week, right?

Maybe I’m just an old fashioned BJ suck-off-er. (Good call Sandy)

by Lurch's Lobbyists on Jun 29, 2009 2:22 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Ohpleaseohpleaseohplease

clear waivers.

Gross for an everyday position! (no offense, Kapler)

by B Ray on Jun 29, 2009 2:37 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, I checked out his first 2 starts

His control, it didn’t come back.

Maybe I’m just an old fashioned BJ suck-off-er. (Good call Sandy)

by Lurch's Lobbyists on Jun 29, 2009 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I saw him pitch in Brooklyn last night

and it was a disaster. I don’t think he would have been able to get out HS players.

by SuperB on Jun 29, 2009 2:57 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I was thinking Bob

I could actually see him still throwing up and in over-60 leagues.

by nolesblogger on Jun 29, 2009 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

That would be awesome if Edwin was done.

Not cause I don’t like him, I just don’t like how he constantly comes up here

by nolesblogger on Jun 29, 2009 4:57 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

ive made my points and i still believe

whether or not we are winning doesn’t play one fucking iota into it being a bad trade.

by RaysTheRoof on Jun 29, 2009 6:08 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Noted, but we still don't have enough of a sample size to honestly make this determination.

And in regards to the timing, it was a commencement of horrible posts and poorly thought out arguments.

I really don’t care if people think it was a bad trade, which is an opinion I disagree with so far, as long as they can argue that they had some legitimate foresight when this trade went down that the Rays were going to come out on the wrong side of this, either by some kind of analytical points or proof that they were here day of trade saying ‘this is a bad trade’.

For that matter, here is that thread. The one guy who seemingly stuck to his guns is raysfaninminnesota, so I’ll give him credit next time I see him.

And I’ve also said repeatedly that I will eat my own words if he wins the Cy Young, AL MVP, and some kind of playoff series VP award and instantly call it a bad trade.

I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.

by kericr on Jun 29, 2009 6:30 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Update - Rios sitting tonight

Jose Bautista playing RF….just in case we hit anything out that way tonight off Halladay

by Jason Collette on Jun 29, 2009 4:06 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Halladay is great but don't forget we have the best offense in the league

We can’t expect a 10 run outburst, but we should be able to get 4 or 5 over the course of the game. I say we put up 3 against Halladay in 7, 1 or 2 against League in the 8th and we win 4 or 5 to 3

by matthan on Jun 29, 2009 4:18 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

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