6/29 Post-Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 29, 2009 9:49 PM EDT
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| Player | WPA |
| Niemann | 0.356 |
| Crawford | 0.144 |
| Wheeler | 0.087 |
| Upton | 0.077 |
| Burrell | 0.041 |
| Bartlett | 0.036 |
| Choate | 0.016 |
| Gross | -0.012 |
| Longoria | -0.028 |
| Aybar | -0.046 |
| Navarro | -0.056 |
| Pena | -0.114 |
151 comments
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Reposting this
Race for 15+ wins/2nd straight year with 5 guys with 10+ wins
Niemann 7
Shields 6
Ghost of Sonny 6
Garza 5
Kazmir 4
Price 2
Rotation: 1. James Shields 2. Matt Garza 3. David Price 4. Scott Kazmir 5. Jeff Niemann
JP has 4!
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by FreeZorilla on Jun 29, 2009 10:16 PM EDT up reply actions
Brilliant game by Niemann
His control over his curve was superb. Count me as impressed.
RJ, you gotta do a pitch f/x on BJ's 1st and 3rd ABs
I don’t see that well, but that ump gave Halladay a foot
Yeah he got hosed a couple times for sure
in general the umps zone seemed a little wide, but fairly consistent.
I checked the first at-bat, I didn't see anything glaring.
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 29, 2009 9:55 PM EDT up reply actions
seemed like a couple low balls were called strike.
i didnt mind the ump since he was willing to call Niemman’s big curves strikes
As I said in one of the other threads
If Jeff Niemann faced off against the same opponents that Jason Hammel has, he would have = if not better numbers. Niemann is a well above average #5 starter and above average #4 starter.
Yes.
Hammel is pitching well but Niemann is better
No way
The gap is way too large. Hammel gets more K’s, less walks, more swinging strikes, more out of zone swings, etc. He has pitched better across the board.
hmm. I didn't realize the discrepancy was that big
I guess he is pitching in Coors too which should elevate his numbers.
by RaysTheRoof on Jun 29, 2009 10:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Granted Hammel isn't this good
But he has had a real good year. Neimann has been consistent, but his best games have been smoke and mirrors.
don't know about the smoke and mirrors
he had a one-hitter and tonight. both legit
by RaysTheRoof on Jun 29, 2009 10:02 PM EDT up reply actions
24 balls in play, 4 hits
That’s unsustainable, but whatever, I’ll take it.
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 29, 2009 10:05 PM EDT up reply actions
that is low
but people were not swinging at his curve and when they did it was not a good result.
by RaysTheRoof on Jun 29, 2009 10:07 PM EDT up reply actions
Results were fantastic.
And not every Niemann start is quite this radical, so whatever, it’s a really weird outlier.
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 29, 2009 10:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Pitching to contact maybe?
I thought they only had two hits?
by RaysTheRoof on Jun 29, 2009 10:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Four hits against Niemann.
And pitching to contact generally isn’t good unless you’re a supreme groundballer. Even then, ~30% of your balls against are going for hits on most nights. 24 BIP is eight hits.
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 29, 2009 10:10 PM EDT up reply actions
He's usually not quite that extreme, though.
I’ll take a 5th starter who lets the defense do the work and doesn’t implode, though. Especially if we can con some body into thinking,“Former top 5 pick, big guy, great curve, mid 90s fastball, 10+ wins… WHAT A STEAL!” and gives us someone sexy.
If we could get a catcher or a highly touted 1st base prospect
that would be nice
by RaysTheRoof on Jun 29, 2009 10:15 PM EDT up reply actions
I would rather trade Sonny
but if you were to assume that a healthy 5 man rotation starting 2010 would be Kaz/Shields/Garza/Price/Davis . The difference from July-October shouldn’t be so great that I wouldn’t want to move whichever guy brings more back and that would most likely be Niemann.
I don't want him traded during the season
I want to wait til after we win the world series. I don’t think we should trade Sonny now — value too low.
by RaysTheRoof on Jun 29, 2009 10:21 PM EDT up reply actions
He could finish with 15 wins his rookie year
Some idiot GM will give away a good piece for him
Fair enough
I haven’t watched the Hammer pitch this year. Hard to believe he has improved so much.
by RaysTheRoof on Jun 29, 2009 10:13 PM EDT up reply actions
Don't forget that the more BIP that turn into hits means that he has to face more hitters...
Which then in turn means even more hits as those guys will be putting the ball in play
His FIP tonight was a bit under 4
Good start of course, but the perception is better than the reality
When nearly nearly all of your starts are against the bottom 10 offenses in baseball
you are going to get more swinging strikes and K’s no matter who you are
Of course
Hammel isn’t as good as his numbers, but you are really underestimating his performance. His season long FIP is lower than Neimanns “gem” tonight.
Fangraphs
I personally keep game by game FIP stats. I’m not sure if there is a resource that does that. Of course Neimann’s FIP was a bit high since his lack of K’s today.
Have you watched Hammel pitch?
What has been different this year?
by RaysTheRoof on Jun 29, 2009 10:17 PM EDT up reply actions
Only once or twice...
Basically his K’s are up, BB’s are down, HR’s are down…
Yet his BABIP is much higher this year….Hammels BABIP is .331 whereas Neimanns was .286 BEFORE this game, so I bet it drops a far amount more
Hammel has been significantly better IMO.
one interesting note on JH is he has only thrown over 100 pitches twice.
he has also only thrown over 6 innings twice (7, and 7 1/3) neither one of those went over 100 pitches.
according to linear pitch weights
seems like his breaking pitched (slider and curve) have improved over last year. In the case of Jackson, his fastball has improved a lot. I want to blame Hickey, but need more evidence.
by RaysTheRoof on Jun 29, 2009 10:20 PM EDT up reply actions
Jackson's slider
has actually gotten worse. It seems like all his gains have been from the fastball and curveball. Interesting. at.
by RaysTheRoof on Jun 29, 2009 10:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Last I checked he was throwing about 7% less fballs than last yr
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by FreeZorilla on Jun 29, 2009 10:34 PM EDT up reply actions
seems to be more effective when hitters see more offspeed pitches
which makes sense. Plus, his velocity is up.
by RaysTheRoof on Jun 29, 2009 10:35 PM EDT up reply actions
The problem with applying weights to year over year data is it doesn't totally account for changes in usage
The law of diminishing returns should definitely be in effect. When you throw more of a pitch its per pitch value should decrease. When you throw very little of a pitch its per pitch value should be at its max. So if its usage changes then that could be the sole reason why the value changes. The pitch may not actually be better or worse. He just may be throwing a more efficient (max value) combination of his pitches
Which again falls on the pitching coach and the statistical folks
They should be able to figure out the combination of pitches that creates the most value then relay that to the pitching coach which should pound that into the pitchers head
Yeah I think that if most the improvement comes from pitch usage
this would be the easiest way to show hickey should be booted. That is something he should be able to control through discussion with the pitcher.
by RaysTheRoof on Jun 29, 2009 10:47 PM EDT up reply actions
To be fair that is heavy statistical work
And honestly probably something that hasn’t even been examined closely. You’d have to know the sensitivities of certain pitches at certain levels.
Of course qualitatively a pitching coach should be able to tell and get the general usage in the right ballpark.
yeah I don't expect Hick to be crunching the numbers
i expect him to be able to tell by watching a guy pitch. That is after all, his job
by RaysTheRoof on Jun 29, 2009 10:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Or you could put the onus where it belongs,
on the pitcher. He is the only one that knows what his stuff feels like on a given night, with the catcher having the second best angle, and the coach a distant 3rd. Over a long enough timeline pitch usage should reach optimum conditions, of course over a long enough timeline everyone’s survival rate is 0.
Rays Win!
by Sandy Kazmir on Jun 29, 2009 11:17 PM EDT up reply actions
so what exactly is hickey's job?
he doesn’t teach pitches, he doesn’t seem to teach mechanics, and according to you, he shouldn’t have to teach pitch usage. basically, hickey is a figurehead under your scenario.
by RaysTheRoof on Jun 29, 2009 11:38 PM EDT up reply actions
Quit being such a dick
He has an impact (Price’s sudden changeup usage the other night springs to mind), but over the course of any 10 pitches it’s up to the pitcher to decide what is working and what isn’t. This is the same for every team in the league. A pitching coach might say this pitch looks like it’s doing this or that maybe try to mix in this or that, but give me a fucking break. It’s not like Knapp is holding Porcello’s hand out there or even calling the pitches. PC is more about philosophy and being able to give perspective. Players play, coaches coach.
Rays Win!
by Sandy Kazmir on Jun 30, 2009 12:44 AM EDT up reply actions
I think you hit the nail on the head, but yet I do disagree
It is about philosophy and the players play and the coaches coach. That is precisely our point though. I don’t think anyone is saying that Hickey or any other pitching coach exactly controls pitch usage during the game. The game is the culmination of thousands of hours of practice, drills, and meetings. That is where the pitching coach needs to hammer in to throw more of one pitch at the expense of another. That is where the pitching coach needs to tell the pitcher what pitch to throw in what count to what type of batters. That is where they practice new pitches and grips. Once the game starts I don’t want our pitchers to overthink their mechanics, pitch selection or anything of the sort. That should all be second nature by that point. That is Hickeys job.
Also OTOH I find the whole find what pitches are working and not working to be pretty bunk
That is the ultimate knee jerk reaction on a small sample size. Every single pitch is going to get hit hard at times. To back away from one of your good pitches because of a recent extremely small sample of it getting hit hard is just ridiculous.
What about a guy that just doesn't have a pitch that day?
Wheeler’s slider springs to mind. When it is on it is tight with deep sink and good lateral movement. When it is not it is flat and up and usually ends up over a wall. Somedays a guys fastball will be electric, while the change will be meh. It is up to the pitcher to know what his go to pitch should be on any given day and then throw it in the right count. I equate pitching coaches to babysitters that are there to control egos.
Rays Win!
by Sandy Kazmir on Jun 30, 2009 10:21 AM EDT up reply actions
But they still must be evaluated
Its not a free pass position
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by FreeZorilla on Jun 30, 2009 10:22 AM EDT up reply actions
This is true, and he was better last year then Niemann too.
I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.
1-0 vs Toronto
we so own them
Rotation: 1. James Shields 2. Matt Garza 3. David Price 4. Scott Kazmir 5. Jeff Niemann
Seriously, that sucks
Him and Navi should race at this point
Rotation: 1. James Shields 2. Matt Garza 3. David Price 4. Scott Kazmir 5. Jeff Niemann
He's chasing.
Needs to get his zone back
hehe 2 ahead of Toronto
Coming for Yanks
1.5 back
Rotation: 1. James Shields 2. Matt Garza 3. David Price 4. Scott Kazmir 5. Jeff Niemann
after like 2 months in 4th
we are 1.5 back of 2nd!
Rotation: 1. James Shields 2. Matt Garza 3. David Price 4. Scott Kazmir 5. Jeff Niemann
Now don't jump all over me with this
But is it just coincidence or coaching that two former Rays have completely turned their careers around this year?
3
4 if you wanna count Hammel
Jackson, Seay, Camp and Hammel? Also, McClung
Rotation: 1. James Shields 2. Matt Garza 3. David Price 4. Scott Kazmir 5. Jeff Niemann
Seay was never here with Hickey.
Camp was fine here.
McClung, whatever.
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 29, 2009 10:28 PM EDT up reply actions
Camp is a groundballer that played in front of one of the worst historic defenses. I didn't see Jim Hickey out at 2B
playing the Jorge Cantu lawn gnome defense
Rays Win!
by Sandy Kazmir on Jun 29, 2009 11:18 PM EDT up reply actions
I've seen enough evidence to think it probably is not a coincidence
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by FreeZorilla on Jun 29, 2009 10:25 PM EDT up reply actions
What, because of Hammel, Seay, Camp, and McClung?
Other than Jackson, you can’t associate any of them with poor coaching. Hammel was a victim of a crowded roster, Seay went to the pen, Camp was a bad FO choice, and McClung went to the pen and isn’t exactly on fire.
Hammells has improved
I don’t see why that wouldn’t be poor coaching. And his breaking pitches have improved, not his fastball. Seemingly breaking pitches would be more “coachable” than fastball, but I’m not entirely sure that is true.
by RaysTheRoof on Jun 29, 2009 10:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Broken Kazmir being somewhat fixed in a few weeks with Peterson
I didn;t think we’d see him for months
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by FreeZorilla on Jun 29, 2009 10:35 PM EDT up reply actions
think he was just doing consultant work
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by FreeZorilla on Jun 29, 2009 10:38 PM EDT up reply actions
he was hired a sa consultant
he needs to be hired fill time at the close of the season. Look what Knapp has done for the Tigers. I don’t think we’d see something similar with a Hickey for Peterson swap but I think it definitely had the possibility of helping things.
by RaysTheRoof on Jun 29, 2009 10:39 PM EDT up reply actions
I would love Peterson being a member of the org.
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 29, 2009 10:40 PM EDT up reply actions
I've been really impressed with Verlander this year
it has made me a believer that pitching coaches can make a big difference
by RaysTheRoof on Jun 29, 2009 10:41 PM EDT up reply actions
Think he will ask for a lot of $ ?
Any chance the Rays would fire Hick if the team makes the playoffs this year?
by RaysTheRoof on Jun 29, 2009 10:42 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't know.
Seattle was interested, but Wakamatsu is close friends with Peterson and didn’t want that becoming a problem.
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 29, 2009 10:47 PM EDT up reply actions
Is Hammel being ~average really a shock?
Didn’t I beat that drum during the spring?
Edwin being this good is shocking though. There was about a 5% shot he ever turned into something like this. Good for him and Detroit though.
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 29, 2009 10:25 PM EDT up reply actions
You aren't giving Hammel enough credit
You called Neimann league average
Hammel has a tRA+ of 117, Neimanns is 88.
That is a pretty large difference…
So Niemann has been below average.
Surprising.
by RaysTheRoof on Jun 29, 2009 10:32 PM EDT up reply actions
None of our pitchers have great tRA.
I think only Shields or Garza is in the green, so to speak.
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 29, 2009 10:35 PM EDT up reply actions
Honestly I think only Shields has pitched well this year
Garza has been so so. His BABIP is really low too.
Yeah it should balance out
Garza isn’t some superstud some people think though. He is a borderline 2 and solid #3
He's quite a bit a above avergae
1.6 war less than halfway through the season. He could easily end up at 3.5
by RaysTheRoof on Jun 29, 2009 10:29 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah I didn't know his FIP was 3.73.
His HR/FB% is down. Odd.
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 29, 2009 10:30 PM EDT up reply actions
He has been better across the board
I knew he was doing better, but not this much better
Although his GB, FB, LD%s haven't really changed from 08 to 09
His K’s are up and BBs are down though
How much of that is from a players natural talent swing as he ages and becomes more familiar with what it takes to be a pitcher?
Sorry if any of that sounds cliched, but there is some truth to all of it.
Rays Win!
by Sandy Kazmir on Jun 29, 2009 11:22 PM EDT up reply actions
RJ, how much of an effect do you think that opponents can have on someone's numbers.
JH hasn’t faced off against a top 10 offense all year and most have been in the bottom 10. I don’t think that is the only reason his numbers are better but I think it plays a bigger role.
It obviously has an effect.
How much? I don’t know, but if you’re facing an average of 3.5 R/G offenses instead of 4.5 R/G offenses, well, you better have better numbers.
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 29, 2009 10:35 PM EDT up reply actions
I forget how many runs you would expect to gain going from the NL to the AL.
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 29, 2009 10:37 PM EDT up reply actions
it wouldn't be only comparing AL to NL, it is AL East and NL West.
best and worst offensive divisions in baseball.
BP has a stat called quality opponents faced.
If someone wants to check for Hammel/Niemann while I wrap this recap post, it would be appreciated.
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 29, 2009 10:41 PM EDT up reply actions
Speaking of stats
Is there a reason why Fangraphs doesn’t use FIP as a measure of offense? Basically FIH?
good question
Hard to imagine wOBA would be better at predicting the future than FIH
by RaysTheRoof on Jun 29, 2009 10:46 PM EDT up reply actions
wOBA is a lot more precise than a FIH would be.
And FG is getting a certain other pitching stat soon…
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 29, 2009 10:47 PM EDT up reply actions
wOBA doesn't account for a string a bad luck though
seems like FIH would do a batter job of evaluating the process of hitting.
by RaysTheRoof on Jun 29, 2009 10:49 PM EDT up reply actions
To be fair.
Hitters have more control over stuff like HR rate and BABIP than pitchers. Sure, they slump, but you can spot those issues pretty easily.
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 29, 2009 10:50 PM EDT up reply actions
We looked at that earlier this year
http://www.draysbay.com/2009/5/22/883738/true-outcome-hitting
http://www.draysbay.com/2009/4/22/849121/fielding-independent-hitting
For one, hitting BABIP is more of a skill than pitching
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by FreeZorilla on Jun 29, 2009 10:49 PM EDT up reply actions
Well then why not something such as tRAagainst
Something that is in essentially a runs/9 format would be very useful.
Love RE24, underused stat
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by FreeZorilla on Jun 29, 2009 10:56 PM EDT up reply actions
Edwin's fastball and curve have improved
Maybe the curve could be attributed to better coaching. I don’t think the fastball can be. As for Hammell his fastball is worse and both his breaking pitches have gotten better. Hard to say whether or not it’s Hickey’s fault. It certainly doesn’t bode well for him though.
by RaysTheRoof on Jun 29, 2009 10:27 PM EDT up reply actions
why the heck does every thread have to have a section on edwin jackson.
by walkoffwalk on Jun 29, 2009 10:36 PM EDT up reply actions
we're discussing whether pitchers have improved since leaving the rays
and whether that improvement could be attributed to coaching. I’m not trying to be inflammatory or start an argument so just calm down.
by RaysTheRoof on Jun 29, 2009 10:37 PM EDT up reply actions
making the arguement against coaching
makes the arguement that we traded the wrong guys invalid. If coaching is the problem than it wouldn’t have mattered which guy got traded, the guys who stayed would still struggle and the guys who got traded would be better.
I don't think anyone blames Friedman
He can only act on the information he has available. Based upon that he did a very good job
Yes, I think I am starting to agree with this.
The problem is he was probably getting his scouting evals on Edwin from Hick.
by RaysTheRoof on Jun 29, 2009 10:44 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm sure Friedman took into account his predictive models, qualitative scouting, as well as the contract issues
According to that trading Edwin was a total no brainer. However if poor development was in place than that severely impacts the predictive models and the traditional scouting.
when is Hammell up for arb?
I know Jackson was already starting to get expensive, wondering if the same was true for Hammer.
by RaysTheRoof on Jun 29, 2009 10:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Great discussion, learned a lot
Glad i brought it up
If hammell really has gotten better im happy for him
he always seemed like a nice guy.
by RaysTheRoof on Jun 29, 2009 10:57 PM EDT up reply actions
he seems to be a fan favorite at Coors too
at least so far
by RaysTheRoof on Jun 29, 2009 11:03 PM EDT up reply actions
And I haven't seen Jackson brought up in about 5 days
so stop exaggerating
by RaysTheRoof on Jun 29, 2009 10:37 PM EDT up reply actions
What was up with Navi's steal tonight
Catcher double-pumped and still had him by a couple feet. Also, Gross was safe on that first steal.
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