Jeff Niemann Shares With His Fielders
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 29, 2009 11:00 PM EDT
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PrintJeff Niemann did his best Tommy John impression tonight, relying on his defense more than most pitchers would dream of. 27 batters faced and only three defensive independent results, and 24 balls in play. Amazingly Niemann was relatively unscathed with only four hits allowed. Quite a bit of good news from this start:
1. This isn't a typical Niemann start, otherwise I would be concerned moving forward.
2. The runs results were just what we needed when facing Halladay. Seriously, great night for a weird start.
3. We beat the Jays, therefore helping our playoff odds.
4. We beat their very best chance of winning a game in this series. They probably win one of the next two, but a series win would be huge, huge heading into Texas.
5. Seriously, we beat Halladay and didn't score a ton. Woo.
6. Niemann threw 69% strikes with his fastballs, 59% sliders, and 55% change-ups. Wow.
7. It also looks like a 35/65 split on two-seamers and four-seamers.
8. Maddon's bullpen management was pretty clean. He played the matchups and it worked. I'm shocked.
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I thought the Wells shot was gone.
Thankfully his HR/FB% waited to regress.
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 29, 2009 11:11 PM EDT up reply actions
wells needed it
he’s been the second worst regular player in mlb up to this point. Truly embarrassing considering how much money he’s making.
by RaysTheRoof on Jun 29, 2009 11:43 PM EDT up reply actions
where are you pulling this from?
second worst regular CF, maybe. player? not a chance.
by digs the long ball on Jun 30, 2009 12:22 AM EDT up reply actions
WAR
uhm, he is really really bad defensively.
Brad Hawpe laughs
by Navi's_Navy on Jun 30, 2009 12:26 AM EDT up reply actions
He's turned into just an absolutely awful player.
The craziest thing is he’s got over 105 million dollars left on his contract and it runs through 2014.
Tools Whore
Jerry Crasnick had a nice article over on espn.com if you care to search it out
I really like him as a writer.
Rays Win!
by Sandy Kazmir on Jun 30, 2009 12:47 AM EDT up reply actions
FanGraphs WAR, I imagine.
His defense has been unthinkably poor.
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 30, 2009 1:41 AM EDT up reply actions
Fangraphs
check out the link — by WAR Giles is the worst, Wells second worst
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=6&season=2009&month=0
The bottom of that list is actually pretty revealing
Ordonez, Giambi, Soriano, our old buddy Huff.
"What the hell is a Labradoddle?"
Huff is a victim of his defense. They've been playing him at 1st base
He’d be much higher on WAR if he could just play DH.
Also, you missed Big Sloppi rolling in at -0.5.
I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.
His defense has been worse than the DH penalty
That’s awfully tough, although the 1B penalty is pretty steep as well.
Rays Win!
by Sandy Kazmir on Jun 30, 2009 9:52 AM EDT up reply actions
Love to see Niemann getting ahead in the counts consistently.
I listened to this game on the radio instead of watching it on TV, but from what I heard, Niemann seemed to get quite a bit of pop-ups and grounders. Not too many line drives to the outfield.
This was also the quickest baseball game I’ve experienced in a while. What was it, two and a half hours?
Big, big intra-divisional win. Gotta love it!
Niemann worked much more quickly than he has in past starts i've watched.
by RaysTheRoof on Jun 29, 2009 11:43 PM EDT up reply actions
I noticed that too. He wasn't Sonny fast, but he was pitching like he was parked in front of a meter.
I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.
I kind of disagree with your #1 point
This was a very Neimann-esque type start. A start like this really isn’t unexpected. The way he got there was a bit different. His K’s and walks were down as well as his BABIP. However the differences weren’t totally huge (except for the BABIP).
I’m actually working on a Neimann thing. He has been really consistent. One of the most in the league. Of course the predictive value is small due to the small number of starts
A Foul Ball Is A Foul Ball
Yeah Wells hit a nice shot but too bad for him things didn’t work out. Hill also hit a nice shot but really that was about it as far as HR close calls go. It’s a big ballpark so I don’t expect to see HR’s. Niemann kept the Jays off balanced with a good mix of quality fastballs, sliders and change ups. If Maddon was smart he’ll pitch him again Sunday in Texas on national TV. I wouldn’t want him facing the Jays two times in a row and Texas is having problems scoring runs. Yeah it’s a HR ballpark down there but the Rangers aren’t hitting a lick lately.
What one has to appreciate in Maddon is how he uses everyone in the pen
This is in sharp contrast to Torre when he trotted out Proctor about a 100x a year and burned the pen by August
Those two moves are very different
BJ could have temporarily been moved down until he regained his form. Offing Kap has irrevocable consequences.
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Similar to the low risk involved with moving Zo into the everyday lineup
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The truth is moving BJ down could have been the right move
As long as they moved him back in due time. There is nothing wrong with getting your most efficient lineup out there.
I agreed with and suggested this.
When he was in his funk, it didn’t make sense after the first month to me to keep him at the top of the order, and I thought bringing him down to 8th and shuffling the lineup a bit would help ease the lineup a little bit and get everybody straightened out, then get him back up to #1 when he snapped out of it.
This probably wouldn’t have helped him any though, he wasn’t in a funk, he literally couldn’t hit.
I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.
When he did get on he was scoring roughly 50% of the time.
If he could work a walk, it was as good as a double, and with the bats behind him, he was scoring a lot of runs.
Rays Win!
by Sandy Kazmir on Jun 30, 2009 9:54 AM EDT up reply actions
It's all moot now anyway.
Besides, we already had this debate.
I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.
But the walk rates went way down
He started to swing first pitch quite a bit, and did not follow his usual approach. The % stat was hugely influenced by the slugging behind him. I’m curious how many of those runs would not have scored with replacements getting on first base. I would imagine that small difference is easily offset by the higher OBP of the other player.
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by FreeZorilla on Jun 30, 2009 10:26 AM EDT up reply actions
lineup
I thought batting order is statistcally irrelevant yo scoring runs.
RBI opps mostly has no difference except for leadoff
but the leadoff man will still have the most plate appearances each game.
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ergo vis a vis ergo ergo
more chances for bj to refine his swing and get his groove back without jetting off to a sunsplashed caribbean island.
So long, Sweet Lime!
the best thing a line up does in my opinion
is force the opposition to use up the bullpen
still don’t get Gardenhire having Mauer and Morneau back to nack, but it’s working
i think an optimized lineup gains the team about .5 wins over the course of a whole season
So long, Sweet Lime!
Optimized relative to what?
I’m sure putting Navilicious in the leadoff spot would cost more than .5 wins
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optimized relative to normal/random
this is according to Tom Tango. And, under that principle, the three most important spots in the order are 2, 4, 5. But his conclusion was that it doesn’t truly matter.
So long, Sweet Lime!
Of course you could argue having Navi in the lineup period costs wins.
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what the hell happened to this guy?
i’ve never seen a hitter down in the count as often as him, and with little chance of working his way back in
Thats b/c he takes strike 1 a lot
and then goes into hack mode at anything he doesn’t have to dodge
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You're correct. I have no stats to prove it
but after strike one, the pitcher always throws a breaking ball, out of the zone, and navi chases it
Zo what site gives you the game stats by FIP, LD% and so on?
Is it fangrapjs?
I don't know game by game
You can get monthlys on FG by going to the team tab.
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by FreeZorilla on Jun 30, 2009 10:27 AM EDT up reply actions
I did a study from the beginning of the Mets Series to before the last game of theMarlins
Navi had 14 looking strike 1s, to 3 swinging. He had 26 swinging strike 2 and 3s to only 1 looking. Talk about an easy pattern for a pitcher to throw to.
Looking to Swinging
Strike 1: 14/3
Strikes 2 and 3: 1/26
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by FreeZorilla on Jun 30, 2009 10:29 AM EDT up reply actions
It matters, but not that much.
Maybe five wins between optimal and absolute worst (pitcher fourth, etc.)
Maybe one win between optimal and a typical “ok” lineup. Two wins for some really dumb teams.
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by Sky Kalkman on Jun 30, 2009 11:14 AM EDT up reply actions
And put which proven pitcher in the rotation to take his place?
Warning: No matter what answer you give to this question, it’s wrong because they’re either not ready or they’re broken.
I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.
Let me clean the milk off my computer screen now...
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And if we don't share then we don't grow
Unabomber set the whole world on fire
by Orlando Rays on Jun 30, 2009 9:44 AM EDT up reply actions
Haha
But seriously, what about Ian Snell? The Pirates want to let him go and the guy fanned 17 in AAA yesterday. He’s also better than Jeff Niemann and not too expensive.
So long, Sweet Lime!
I wouldn't be willing to offer anything of value to the Pirates for Snell.
Not because I think Snell isn’t worth anything, but because that situation is a disaster, and paying anything at all is probably paying too much.
I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.
I hate a Snell type pitcher
saw him pitch v the Indians, all he does is nibble with his 86 mph fb
no one ever succeeds with that type of stuff
teams like us totally obliterate soft tossers like jamie moyer. total. obliteration.
So long, Sweet Lime!
by PlayOnWords on Jun 30, 2009 10:09 AM EDT up reply actions
The only team that HASN'T obliterated Jamie Moyer this year IS us.
But yeah, JP Howell sure sucks as a pitcher though. We need a true closer.
I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.
i know, but he's ~70 years old and has had a very successful career
So long, Sweet Lime!
by PlayOnWords on Jun 30, 2009 10:20 AM EDT up reply actions
1- he's LH, few LHP are power pitchers
2- For every Moyer, there are a 100 Snells
JP Howell did suck as a SP
and i’m not bitching about his velocity as much as he nibbles
Every jitter is 3-2
Based on ERA, a lot of pitchers "sucked" on the 2007 team
Howell FIP (starter) —
2006: 4.02
2007: 4.77
Snell is in a similar situation, if not quite as extreme. His FIP this year is 4.56 (career 4.44) compared to a 5.36 ERA.
Somebody is going to get a decent buy-low deal.
Does FIP consider LD's?
Unless i’m wrong it’s based on HR, K and BB
Howell that season, got around the order fine once, then it was ‘Katie bar the door’
You are right
His TRAs were 5.21 and 5.24 as a starter with TB
OUt of the pen he has been 3.92 and 3.66 past 2 years.
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by FreeZorilla on Jun 30, 2009 11:21 AM EDT up reply actions
remind me
is tRA* on the ERA scale? tRA+ on the OPS+ scale? (meaning 100=avg, 115=good
So long, Sweet Lime!
by PlayOnWords on Jun 30, 2009 11:33 AM EDT up reply actions
tRA = expected_runs/expected_outs*27
http://statcorner.com/tRAabout.html
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by FreeZorilla on Jun 30, 2009 11:41 AM EDT up reply actions
His first inning was actually one of his worst in 2007
Then, around the fifth inning things went south again which seems more related to inefficient pitch counts than it being the second time through the order.
Although keep in mind we’re looking at a total of 9-10 starts (51 IP).
But yes, as a starter he gave up a higher percentage of LD, but he also threw fewer strikes (back to the “nibbling” theory?) and had a poor defense behind him which led to high pitch counts by the fifth inning in about half of his starts that season.
Maybe he truly would suck, but just out of curiosity I still wonder how he would do now as a starter.
A couple OT: Jake McGee is he okay?
2- Alex Cobb removed last night after just 2.1 IP 0 R what’s up?
McGee had a pitch count of 20 in his first start and was pain-free.
He is scheduled to pitch again today. No idea on Cobb.
Check Cobb on FG, what an improvement
and with a 340 BABIP
why does many want to write off Niemann?
the kid is only in his first season in the bigs, is dealing with the ups and downs of learning to pitch at the majors, and still putting up solid numbers. He pitched a complete game shut-out earlier against Kansas City. He’s turning into a solid major league starting pitcher. And best yet, he’s cheap. Give the kid his due. He pitched well enough to win last night, and has done that on most of the days he pitches.
by raysfaninminnesota on Jun 30, 2009 11:04 AM EDT reply actions
Who's writing him off?
Putting 20+ balls in play during a game and expecting the same results is what I’m warning against. He doesn’t do this every game, but he boxscore is lying if it suggests Niemann pitched extremely well. He did okay, mostly because he limited the walks to only two, but getting two whiffs in 100 pitches, only one strikeout, and a ton of fly balls is a very, very good way to have a bad start.
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 30, 2009 12:13 PM EDT up reply actions
those who say "let's trade him"
the dude pitched 7 shut-out innings going into the 8th. So he isn’t a #1 starter, but he’s doing a great job as a number 5. What does everyone expect out of a guy who’s just getting his feet wet at the big league level. Whether or not he can sustain this is one thing, but give the guy a chance. Rick Porcello, who is also in his first year in the majors, also only has 44 K in 83 IP. If Niemann still has these numbers next year, maybe then the criticism is warranted. At this point, Niemann is just trying to survive in the majors. I do find it funny when a guy shields doesnt have a good start but doesn’t give up many runs, people say he “battled” well. But when a guy like Niemann does the same thing, he’s criticized.
Outside of 1 inning, Niemann has held his own in the majors so far this year. Give him a little time, and the strikeouts should rise. What do his minor league numbers indicate for strike outs? What’s his track record? Just because he doesn’t average a strikeout an inning, that doesn’t mean he can’t be a solid, servicable back-end starter.
by raysfaninminnesota on Jun 30, 2009 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions
It is all about value
Neimanns mainstream numbers are going to look far better than his actual performance, and his actual performance will probably end up average to below average.
he's in his first year and we already believe his performance has peaked?
he hasn’t even pitched a half-season in the majors yet. Niemann has done nothing yet to say he’s below average.
by raysfaninminnesota on Jun 30, 2009 1:07 PM EDT up reply actions
Probably because Shields is one of the best pitchers in the game, and probably the second best pitcher we've ever had
And Jeff Niemann is an average starter with irritating habits.
I hate it when people say “Well he’s a serviceable back-end starter”
That isn’t the debate. At all. The people saying trade him are because someone will value him HIGHER than that. Some team will look at a shiny W-L record and ERA, ignore the fact that his homerun rate will regress, and that his supposedly good stuff isn’t translating, and give us above market value for a 4/5 starter.
It’s nothing personal with Niemann, but if we can get good value for his dummy stats, then absolutely we should do it.
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 30, 2009 1:15 PM EDT up reply actions
What would you have in mind?
You can’t say catcher or young 1B prospect.
Rays Win!
by Sandy Kazmir on Jun 30, 2009 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions
of course if the rays are blown away with an offer
but unless you are getting an elite catcher or first basemen, then why trade him? At least wait until you are sure that Davis is ready to start.
by raysfaninminnesota on Jun 30, 2009 1:33 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah and your caveat applies to any player
Don’t trade Craw unless we get a Rangers Teix type package. The only untouchable is Longo due to his incredible deal. You could probably throw Shields in that mix as well.
Rays Win!
by Sandy Kazmir on Jun 30, 2009 1:39 PM EDT up reply actions
sorry...
it took me a sec to get what you meant. been a long day already.
by raysfaninminnesota on Jun 30, 2009 1:52 PM EDT up reply actions
When Aki comes back, it arguably makes an OFer expendable.
I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.
Because Sonnanstine is just as good moving forward.
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 30, 2009 1:42 PM EDT up reply actions
sonny will have arb coming up
niemann will be cheaper longer. Makes more sense to keep him. Makes more sense to trade Kazmir if he rebounds this year and free up the salary to keep other players or upgrades
by raysfaninminnesota on Jun 30, 2009 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions
how do you know this is all he is?
Shields has actually been getting hit more (BAA .275 to .259). But no one is saying he’s ‘average’ or should be traded. Shields is our best pitcher and I’m not comparing him to Niemann, but it seems as if people are selling Niemann short. Joe Saunders has comparable stats. It just seems premature to be calling Niemann average just yet. All I’m saying is, unless the Rays are blown away with an offer (not likely) give him some time to develop.
by raysfaninminnesota on Jun 30, 2009 1:31 PM EDT up reply actions
BAA is a luck driven stat.
And Joe Saunders is average as well, but with a shiny ERA so people think he’s really, really good.
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 30, 2009 1:36 PM EDT up reply actions
i'm not sure many would agree that Saunders is 'average'
by raysfaninminnesota on Jun 30, 2009 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions
Oddly enough, I couldn't careless how many would agree with that.
Anyone who knows what they’re talking about will tell you he’s closer to a 4.5 RA starter than 3.5.
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 30, 2009 1:46 PM EDT up reply actions
i guess i don't know what i'm talking about
but deciding you know all about a player in about 15 starts, is premature.
by raysfaninminnesota on Jun 30, 2009 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions
...and probably the second best pitcher we've ever had
I miss Rolando Arrojo :(
I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.
I think the market is slightly more effecient that you give it credit for.
"What the hell is a Labradoddle?"
How as Jeff's curve ball usage last night?
Did he throw it? For strikes?
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Shitske to the Yankees? Ha!
RD over and out.
by ReasonableDoubt on Jun 30, 2009 11:56 AM EDT reply actions
I loved Maddogs use of the BP last night.
Bring Wheeler in in a relatively low leverage spot. Let him get some out, and then leave the best RP in the BP even though it was a save situation. He went to the second-best LHP to get the final out rather than wasting Howell. PERFECT
He probably wouldn't have gone to Howell
He had just pitched 3 days in a row, and his control was a little iffy the night before. Better to let him sit a day (hopefully 2) and then get him back out there to finish off the series.
Rays Win!
by Sandy Kazmir on Jun 30, 2009 1:13 PM EDT up reply actions
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