A Look at Runs, By Inning Splits

by Sandy Kazmir on Jun 30, 2009 1:30 PM EDT Comment 42 comments

The above image is the Rays, and their opponents', runs by inning. Look at that vast chasm from the 5th inning on. The only inning we have been outscored is the first (thanks Kaz & Sonny).

Here is the K, BB, HR, and R rates for the Rays and their opponents by inning. The rate is calculated by taking the quantity of each stat divided by PA. I was looking at this stuff today and thought you guys might find it interesting how we have dominated teams throughout a game, not just a good inning. This also shows how much better our middle relief has been versus opponent middle relief.

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It also shows the philosophical difference between Maddon and other managers

Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."

by Brickhaus on Jun 30, 2009 1:41 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

K's OK, BB's better?

Rays Win!

by Sandy Kazmir on Jun 30, 2009 1:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

My take aways

Our starting pitchers get better into the game. I would generally expect runs scored in the 5th-6th to be greater than 1st-3rd (as it is with our hitters). Seeing the pitcher multiple times, starter getting tired, etc. This would appear to be a significant advantage.

Also, the directional movements of the 7th, 8th and 9th are consistent for both us and opponents. The Rays RA in the 7th being such an outlier I guess would be in part because of their willingness to use their best reliever if the situation presents itself.

Does anyone have a chart of who has pitched the most in the 7th this year?

by Mulva on Jun 30, 2009 1:51 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Shields pitches in the 7th just about every 5 days...

by td32 on Jun 30, 2009 2:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

This workbook has IP for each starter up to about 2 days ago (the last update was after the Kaz start)

googledoc

Rays Win!

by Sandy Kazmir on Jun 30, 2009 2:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sandy, could you update the first graph to include the league average for each inning?

by nolesblogger on Jun 30, 2009 1:56 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Sure give me a few mins, I'm not great with PS so bear with me

Rays Win!

by Sandy Kazmir on Jun 30, 2009 1:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I have updated each chart with AL Averages

I used the AL Average for obvious reasons. You will probably want to view the charts in another tab/window so it is less cluttered.

Rays Win!

by Sandy Kazmir on Jun 30, 2009 2:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The 7th inning is interesting.

It’s almost like the Rays know when to pull their starters.

by R.J. Anderson on Jun 30, 2009 2:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Fire Jim Hickey

Rays Win!

by Sandy Kazmir on Jun 30, 2009 2:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Lets compromise

Hickey can be the “Watch the pitchers to see if they get tired coach” and we can hire Peterson to be the actual pitching coach

by matthan on Jun 30, 2009 6:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

A lot of them make it a pretty easy decision

So long, Sweet Lime!

by PlayOnWords on Jun 30, 2009 2:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks

Our offense outperforms the AL average for each inning, which is no surprise. Anybody have any guesses for why the pitching/defense gives up more than the average in the first 2 and last 2 innings? Is this significant?

by nolesblogger on Jun 30, 2009 2:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

We should sign 2 closers

1 for the first 2 innings and one for the last 2, then just let our starters go the middle 5 FTW. For realz, it does seem like we get off to a bad start (across the board, the first is tough for most of our guys, and then they settle in). The last 2 are close, but since many teams do throw their relief ace(s) in those innings they will probably allow less runs.

Rays Win!

by Sandy Kazmir on Jun 30, 2009 2:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I figured that was the most likely reason for the end of games.

If you take away the Cleveland meltdown than that would probably put us below average for the ninth. I think for the most part it is insignificant when runs are scored. I would say our offensive output in the 6th and limiting our opponents in the 7th more than make up for our early and late shortcomings. I think the best thing you can gather from this graph is when to make pitching changes.

by nolesblogger on Jun 30, 2009 2:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i'm almost positive Piniella started a game with a reliever and had his starter come in after the 2nd or 3rd

by digs the long ball on Jun 30, 2009 4:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He threatened to do that here!

He was in a poor mood at that press conference.

“I’ve made up my mind, and that’s what we’re going to do,” Piniella said. “People are going to think I’m crazy, but we’re just going to try it. Starting (tonight). I’ll bring in whatever reliever I feel like starting the game with, and I’ll bring my starter in in the third inning and we’ll play nine innings of baseball that way. I’m serious.”

by wtbudlight on Jun 30, 2009 4:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I should mention

In the first chart that is runs by inning for the entire AL then I divided by 14 to bring it into scale, this would include the Rays in there.

Rays Win!

by Sandy Kazmir on Jun 30, 2009 2:19 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

OT: Pena finally mkes the top 5

He has no shot but at least people are finally voting for the HR leader…..

Barty remains in 2nd…….about 2 mil behind Jeter

Longo is about 2 mil ahead of A-Rod and about 60,000 behind Jeter for the top

In the only race that is close for us, CC is 48,000 behind Hunter for 4th which is important because Hamilton will not be playing.

And the sad case, Ben Zobrist, not even on the ballot, is sure not reeling in the write in votes

Rotation: 1. James Shields 2. Matt Garza 3. David Price 4. Scott Kazmir 5. Jeff Niemann

by joeybw on Jun 30, 2009 2:31 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Our 4 all-stars

Longo, Bartlett, Crawford, and Zobrist.

They are probably the only guys who deserve to make the team unless you want to throw Howell in there

Kap-rilla???

by Sveet on Jun 30, 2009 2:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I have a nagging feeling Zobrist will be on the final vote

hope he wins…..

Rotation: 1. James Shields 2. Matt Garza 3. David Price 4. Scott Kazmir 5. Jeff Niemann

by joeybw on Jun 30, 2009 3:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

More then likely Pena is going to suck up one of those spots for being the HR leader, probably at the expense of Zobrist.

I see Longo, CC, and Pena as in for sure, and in a perfect world Bartlett, Zobrist, and Howell make it as well.

I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.

by kericr on Jun 30, 2009 3:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I thought Hunter was out as well?

Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."

by Brickhaus on Jun 30, 2009 3:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

And nobody's going to ever get significant write-ins

Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."

by Brickhaus on Jun 30, 2009 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

OT

I’m watching the Rays-Jays game from last night. Did anyone see the fuckwad that dumped a beer in Beej’s general direction on that long-run catch in the 8th. This shit has to stop with fans thinking they can do whatever they want.

Rays Win!

by Sandy Kazmir on Jun 30, 2009 2:48 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

It was two females...

They both were ejected according to Kalas

by tallyray on Jun 30, 2009 3:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

More OT: Milledge and Harranan for Morgan and Sean Burrnett

like it for the Prirates

Rotation: 1. James Shields 2. Matt Garza 3. David Price 4. Scott Kazmir 5. Jeff Niemann

by joeybw on Jun 30, 2009 3:14 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

holy shit the Nationals are retarded

by Suttree on Jun 30, 2009 3:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I thought Bowden being gone would help but they are still retarded

Rotation: 1. James Shields 2. Matt Garza 3. David Price 4. Scott Kazmir 5. Jeff Niemann

by joeybw on Jun 30, 2009 3:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Wow,

I love the Nationals, has to be a franchise like that in every sport

by Buc Wild on Jun 30, 2009 3:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

It's awesome

Swav or Die
For the lulz

by SRQman on Jun 30, 2009 4:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Unbelievable.

Glad to see the market’s fool has been identified before we hit July.

by R.J. Anderson on Jun 30, 2009 3:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I wonder if they'd give away Zimmerman?

That’d be the best thing ever.

by Suttree on Jun 30, 2009 4:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Fangraphs has a write up already.

They are not so down on the move.

by wtbudlight on Jun 30, 2009 4:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Dave likes the Morgan move a lot more than I do.

by R.J. Anderson on Jun 30, 2009 4:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Mostly because he's down on Lastings.

At an MLB level, it’s a good move for the Nats (in terms of Morgan cleaning up their outfield), but if Lastings lives up to his potential – OOPS.

by Suttree on Jun 30, 2009 4:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He's also taking this deal independent of Langerhans, and I'm not.

I see the two as equals and they just dealt Langerhans for Morse, so.

by R.J. Anderson on Jun 30, 2009 4:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Word. I believe the word is confusing.

Why not keep Langerhans, deal for Morgan, put Dukes in right, and either convert Dunn to 1st or deal him? It’s not like he’s helping you compete.

by Suttree on Jun 30, 2009 4:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Who would deal for Dunn?

The Angels? Rangers? Toronto?

Rays Win!

by Sandy Kazmir on Jun 30, 2009 4:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

It's too bad Riccardi shit all over Dunn.

He should absolutely be gunning him. They need atleast two bats and Dunn would be a huge asset for them.

by Suttree on Jun 30, 2009 4:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah JP really screwed the pooch there

He would fit in well, not sure they would take on salary, did you see the attendance last night?

Rays Win!

by Sandy Kazmir on Jun 30, 2009 5:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm sure Toronto would show up if they legitimately had a shot at the playoffs.

Those people have had to root for one of the top 5 teams in baseball over the last half decade with absolutely nothing to show for it. I’m not surprised their apathetic.

by Suttree on Jun 30, 2009 5:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs