Jeff Niemann Mr. Consistently Inconsistently Consistent

by matthan on Jun 30, 2009 5:29 PM EDT Comment 54 comments

As many of you are aware there have been a couple of posts lately pertaining to the issue of pitching and volatility.

I initially took a look at it and one of the conclusions that I found was Jeff Niemann was the consistent, albeit definitely not the best, pitcher on staff

Sandy Kazmir then took their previous work a step further and estimated wins based upon pitcher volatility combined with run distribution (in the form of "FIH)

Those articles can be found here: Intro to Volatility and Updated Deserved Wins

Those articles as well as Niemann’s recent performance raised my interest into Mr. Niemann. If you browse around DRaysBay, The Heater, talk radio, and other outlets you’ll see quite a bit of praise on Niemann. Of course the level of knowledge is vastly different based upon the source, but its exists nonetheless. Some of the praise that you’ll hear is that Niemann is improving, he is consistent, one of our best pitchers, etc.

It is very easy to see why Niemann’s 2009 is perceived the way it is. All you have to do is look at the histogram of earned runs. ER is still a popular mainstream metric although it is obviously very flawed. He has given up 3 earned runs or less in 80% of his starts. Oh by the way he is leading the team in wins. For the public that is excellent.

via lh3.ggpht.com

Does the perception equal the reality? And if so is the reality sustainable?

Earned runs just do not tell the whole story. Lets see if the reality matches using FIP. Firstly lets look at a good and interesting comparable to Niemann, Rick Porcello. As you can see by just looking at the graph Niemann has been more consistent than Porcello even using FIP. I also added a trendline for Niemann’s starts and as we can see his FIP is trending downward. That again is excellent.

via lh5.ggpht.com

Now lets really see if the reality matches the perception. I took a sample of a good handful of pitchers, as well as the 2009 Rays starters and measured their volatility. Niemann rates very well on this scale as he is 5th out of 22.. Niemann’s 1.795 Standard Deviation is in fact closer to the leader of this sample, Adam Wainwright at 1.60 than it is to the 6th most consistent at 2.01. As you can see Niemann does have a lower volatility than Porcello here confirming out suspicions founded in the previous graph. It appears the perception may be the reality.

via lh3.ggpht.com

On the other hand we see a few Rays trailing at the back of the group. Hopefully they can pick it up and become more consistent.

Out of this sample Niemann’s average start posts a FIP of 4.79 which puts him 14th out of 22 in this group. His "yearly" FIP on fangraphs is 4.69. I’ve been doing a bit of research on looking at volatility and FIP in this manner and I have found a correlation (looking at 2006/2007/2008/some 2009) of around ~.6-.7. In other words this means as the average FIP per start raises so does the volatility. Note this exercise is done for around 15 starts for each of these 22 so the sample size will have to bear out. What I’ve seen so far (in looking at 06/07/08/09 is that there is certainly a fair amount of year over year change in volatility for pitchers; however, generally there appears to be distinct ranges for pitchers. Some pitchers certainly seem more consistent than others when looking..

Either way this is the first anomaly for Niemann. Medium to high average FIP per start pitchers just cannot seem to sustain this low volatility. Niemann in fact has the highest spread between average FIP by start and volatility in this sample. This could be a bad sign in the future.

The next stage is to break down Niemann’s FIP to see what is really driving his consistent numbers. In this analysis we are just going to look at the basic components of FIP: HR, IP, K, BB. There has been some analysis on this site that has looked at how Niemann may improve those metrics. One way would be to throw more curves. However here we are just going to look at how those counting stats change over time by start.

via lh4.ggpht.com

Unfortunately we cannot take too much out of this graph. However it does begin to paint the picture that Niemann has in fact been all over the map (mainly IP) rather than the extremely consistent pitcher his start by start ER and FIP show. To further break this down we are going to look at the rates.

I decided to compare Niemann to Mr. Big Game James. I found this compelling because we all love Shields, think Shields is a great pitcher, he is a Ray, we think of him as consistent and yet he in fact has had higher volatility than Niemann. So let’s see how real that difference is or if it has been just a product of luck.

via lh4.ggpht.com

via lh3.ggpht.com

via lh4.ggpht.com

via lh3.ggpht.com

Out of everything in this post this is by far the most important. I’ve presented the data in both table and graph form. As you can see Shields has in fact been more consistent on a per start basis on each component than Niemann other than HRs (which Niemann is due for a regression). Shields has also flat out been better. The consistency and excellence of Shields over Niemann isn’t even close. Of course this Shields being better isn’t unexpected, but it does help us reach some not so great conclusions about Jeff.

This leads us to why Niemann has actually posted more consistent FIPs than Shields. The answer is simply luck. It appears that Niemann has little control over things like K, walks, or even the innings he pitches. He has simply been getting a "good combination" of those in each start equaling roughly the same FIP. However since each metric is very volatile it is only a matter of time before he has a "bad combination" such as high walks, low k’s, and low innings.

I’ll sum up with some pro’s and con’s

Pro’s:

Niemann’s FIP by start is trending downward
80% of Niemann’s starts have resulted in 3ER or less; 87% of 4 ER or less
He has not given up a home run in his last 6 starts
James Shields is rock solid. You know exactly what you are getting out of him every single start.

Con’s:

Niemann has been wildly inconsistent with his strikeouts, walks and innings pitched. It is really only a stroke of luck that he hasn’t produced wildly inconsistent (and bad) FIPs because of it.
His HR rate is due for a regression
Pitchers with high average per start FIP typically cannot sustain this low volatility
Sonny and Kaz haven’t been as bad as what people think (see my previous and Sandy Kazmir’s work), but wow they’ve been embarrassing as a whole. To have that type of volatility you really have to be all over the map.
We really have no idea what we are getting when Niemann takes the hill. He can give us a few innings or a complete game. He can give us literally 0 strikeouts and walks or he can do than at a rate of one per inning. The range is enormous and Niemann must be able to gain some consistency within his performance to become a reliable starter.

Hopefully Hickey and the crew can teach Niemann some new tricks in order to be consistent. Or perhaps they should take RJ’s advice and throw more breaking pitches. Or perhaps it will just take a bit more maturing and experience. However if all else fails it is very likely Niemann could be excellent trade bait at the end of this year. His "mainstream" numbers will be very good given that he is a young pitcher, but his underlying numbers may not.

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Yes I know about the spelling errors

I should probably doublecheck the name. I spelled it wrong previously when I was dabbling in word at work and for some reason it autochanges. I just copy pasted word to here. Of course thats neither here nor there

by matthan on Jun 30, 2009 5:38 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Well, I made it through the entire thing.

Rec’d as usual.

I agree with mostly all the pros and cons. Nieman’s results have been very good, but like you said, it’s hard to see them lasting unless he tweaks some things. Whether that means more curves/sliders or more two-seamers to righties, I don’t know.

by R.J. Anderson on Jun 30, 2009 6:12 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

When I start typing I can't stop

You definitely have a better idea than I do on how he can improve and stabilize those metrics such as strikeouts. He is a young guy so who really knows where he is going to go. Just right now he isn’t as good or as consistent as many folks in the public seem to think he is.

by matthan on Jun 30, 2009 6:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

great post

i tip my hat off to someone who takes a good look at the stats, both old and new, and can display them in a very ‘form your own opinion’ way. The only thing i’ve been frustrated with on this site, is why many are quick to want to trade him, instead of letting him progress and develop. He’s just been through 15 starts this year in the majors. Maybe by the end of this season or next season, we arrive at the point that maybe it’s best to trade him. But right now it is way too soon. The Rays pitching staff has been mostly in shambles until the last week or two. Part of that is due to kazmir. Part of that is due to Sonnanstine. But what it proves is you can never have too much pitching. Trading Niemann is one thing. But you better make damn sure that you have a replacement ready to produce same numbers or better, because when you play in the AL East, there is very little room for error. The Rays only have so many years to win with this group of players. You don’t want to sacrifice the future, but at the same time you don’t want to sacrifice the present.

At this point, it would make more sense for the Rays to trade Sonny or Kazmir, since Niemann has more years in pre-arb, aka cheap years, than Sonny and if Kaz resurfaces, he would fetch much more than Niemann would and also give the Rays the financial flexibility to retain players or upgrade other positions, much more than Niemann would.

If and when Wade Davis is ready for the show, moving Niemann to the bullpen or via trade would be a viable option. But I think it is awfully hasty to peg Niemann as this or that with only 15 starts as evidence. Before anyone says he isn’t a long term option with the Rays, it would be prudent to observe and evaluate him on at least one whole season before coming to a conclusion. If someone blows you away in the off-season with an offer, then by all means do it, just like you would on any other player on the roster. But having a cheap, solid starter is by no means a bad thing, and with injuries and unexpected poor performance having the ability to damage or derail a season, it would not be wise to get rid of someone that can help you try to win a championship.

by raysfaninminnesota on Jul 1, 2009 12:42 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I agree with you for the most part

However I think a good comp is Delmon Young. If Friedman comes to the conclusion that it is smoke and mirrors then the best thing to do is trade him. I fully understand the desire to win and win now, but if a players underlying numbers doesn’t suggest the performance he has had in the past then how does that really help you win in the future? And of course with any trade is all about what you get back in return.

And I’m not going to forget that Neimann is in fact a kid in MLB. It takes time. However the one thing that is important is even young pitcher usually strike guys out and get whiffs. Their problems are typically more with control. Niemann not being able to get swinging strikes is pretty scary.

by matthan on Jul 1, 2009 8:30 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

but has that been his issue all year or just a couple of starts?

Yes, his start against Toronto offered next to nothing on swinging strikes or strikeouts. Actually his last three starts have had low K marks. The last four starts before that, he averaged a K/IP. Also, I wonder if the fact that he gets the hook so quickly has anything to do with how he has been pitching.

by raysfaninminnesota on Jul 1, 2009 9:40 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Bravo. +1

Niemann as trade bait would make some pretty nice room for Mr. Davis.

Sign lady must die.

by EminenceFront on Jun 30, 2009 6:33 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Great great stuff

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by FreeZorilla on Jun 30, 2009 11:06 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I really like the fact his FIP has been trending downwards

Even if the lack of volatility is likely luck

Keep up the good work.

by RaysTheRoof on Jul 1, 2009 12:04 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

The fact that Niemann has shown some ability to be good is my appeal towards him.

If the Rays decide to keep him in the rotation, I wouldn’t be surprised to see everything normalize at some point. I’d take a #5 whose good for 4ER in 6 or 7IP every time.

I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.

by kericr on Jul 1, 2009 12:12 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

especially when he's years away from arbitration

accumulating talent is one thing, but accumulating cheap talent is quite another. That’s one of the reasons, if Niemann can sustain or improve on his numbers, that makes him so valuable. His pennies on the dollar salary allows the Rays to spend money elsewhere. When Wade Davis is ready, maybe Niemann is next to go. Or maybe it’s Kazmir. Either way, Niemann has the chance to be very valuable for the Rays, whether in trade or in keeping him themselves.

by raysfaninminnesota on Jul 1, 2009 12:46 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Again I do agree with you

I do think there is such a thing of having too much of a certain commodity. We want to maximize every players value to us whether it is via trade or just playing time on the Rays. Of course there is a fine line between too much and depth though. The longer we wait the more of a logjam we are going to get at the position which pushes us into a corner to make a move.

Although one thing I do disagree with you about. Niemann should not go in the bullpen. His value is as a starter. If we do not want him as a starter then trade him as a starter. We will get more value in the return for Niemann as a starter than we’d get with Niemann as a middle reliever.

by matthan on Jul 1, 2009 8:38 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

If we trade, I agree Niemann has much more value as a starter

But, one of the options going into this season with Niemann was Maddon’s curiosity of Niemann, with a little time, not being a middle reliever, but a late inning guy for the Rays, ala Howell, the right handed slightly taller version. They saw potential in that role late last season when he struck out the side in Minnesota. The question is, how much can they fetch for Niemann verses keeping him and his low cost, whether as a starter or reliever. With half of our bullpen leaving next season, and given Maddon and Friedman’s initial curiosity, and as expensive as it is to find bullpen pieces on the market, Niemann still may represent more value with the Rays than what they might get in return. Of course, it all depends what someone offers.

by raysfaninminnesota on Jul 1, 2009 9:52 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The problem is...

that maximizing his value for a trade and maximizing his value to the team are two different things. More likely than not, by the end of the year, he’ll be more valuable to this team in the pen than in the rotation, since he likely has a greater marginal advantage over the other players on the 40-man there. For trade value, you almost certainly keep him as a starter, unless the team knows he can bump his velocity a few ticks as a reliever.

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by Brickhaus on Jul 1, 2009 11:05 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

and that's the question

Where is he more valuable? As a trade asset? Or staying with the team, whether as a starter or late-inning reliever. Good pitching is hard to find and unless the Rays can get someone for him that solidifies a position of need for the next 5 years, I’d think he’d be more valuable to the Rays.

by raysfaninminnesota on Jul 1, 2009 11:08 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Could you describe the process used to get these nice charts in a post?

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by FreeZorilla on Jul 1, 2009 6:26 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Once you make them in excel I just save them to my computer and then upload them to an imaging hosting site. Then you can just add them in while making the fanpost. To save it you can just use something as simple as copy/paste into MS Paint and then save. To upload there are a bunch of sites but I use Picasa.

by matthan on Jul 1, 2009 8:32 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

cool thanks

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by FreeZorilla on Jul 1, 2009 8:38 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ive always had problem with tables though

When I copy paste tables from excel they always come out crappy so I just take a screen shot of the table and then crop it and save it as an image.

by matthan on Jul 1, 2009 8:45 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

If you are pasting from Excel make sure all columns outside the first are right aligned

Per RGlass:
switch to "html view." From there you’ll see "table border="0"" Replace it with a higher number. I use 3 generally. I aslo put a "1" in cell cushion and spacing. It makes it look money

I would agree

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by FreeZorilla on Jul 1, 2009 9:12 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sometimes I wish you'd go back to doing fanposts about saving power and distributing it elsewhere. This new shit where you bludgeon the hell out of us with statistical evidence is nowhere near as fun.

I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.

by kericr on Jul 1, 2009 9:18 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

There really is no need for Pena to hit 450 foot home runs to the deepest part of Fenway park

He can just aim for Peskys pole and get three HRs for every 2 he hits now.

by matthan on Jul 1, 2009 9:23 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You should do some biomechanical analysis that shows how he could do this if he only swung with his arms.

I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.

by kericr on Jul 1, 2009 9:27 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The answer is clear

Swing earlier and bunt less.

by matthan on Jul 1, 2009 9:28 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

BOW BEFORE CARLOS

I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.

by kericr on Jul 1, 2009 9:30 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Niemann is offered referred to as an average starter

which is true when you look at his seasonal metrics. What is the value if any of the lack of volatility. How many pitchers in the league average catagory are as consistent as he is? Given Niemann’s volatility across the FIP components, can his overall consistency be deemed as luck? What do other consistent pitchers’ individual FIP components look like across starts? Whats more valuable an inconsistent pitcher with Niemann’s seasonal metrics who can win and lose a few games by himself, or a pitcher who always gives you a chance to win?

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by FreeZorilla on Jul 1, 2009 9:22 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Also, did someone fart in here?

by Suttree on Jul 1, 2009 9:34 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

A few questions so I'll answer each in a different comment

League Average and consistency

The yearly FIP and the average start FIP are going to be very close. They won’t be exactly the same, but how you qualitatively define a pitcher won’t change based upon which metrics you use. Now I’ll move on to your question. Firstly I’ve found there is a correlation between FIP and volatility. Higher FIP means higher volatility. The correlation I found given my analysis, which definitely needs to be far more in depth, is around .6 to .7. A good way to quickly measure how much of an anomaly Niemann is in this sample is by the spread. Generally due to the correlation we expect high FIPs to match high volatilities and low FIPs to match low volatities (and average to average). Therefore the difference between the two should be minor and consistent. Niemann has the largest gap between FIP and volatility out of any player in the sample. He is the outlier. Also if I look at this more in depth I wouldn’t be shocked to find a strong linear relationship between the two and if I do I’d be able to tell you what I’d expect Niemanns volatility to be given his FIP. Either way it is definitely on the low end right now. I’m sure if I expanded the sample to all starting pitchers we would find a couple more guys with Niemanns characteristics, but not many.

by matthan on Jul 1, 2009 9:38 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Luck?

Yes it has mainly been luck. He has been wildly inconsistent with his strikeouts, walks and innings. So far he has just been able to mix and match them to produce a decent enough FIP. He has hit nearly a walk per inning 3 times so far. Given his lack of control over those metrics it is very possible we could see a 5 walk, 4 IP, 1 K, 1HR type performance….especially since his homeruns are due for regression.

by matthan on Jul 1, 2009 9:42 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

How other pitchers look?

Honestly I haven’t broken down by metric many different pitchers. I have Shields in this example. Clearly we all know Shields is a rock so he very well could be an extreme example. However the differences in the standard deviations are large.

With Shields we essentially know exactly what we are getting in terms of innings, k’s, and walks. Therefore we know exactly what we are getting with his FIP.

by matthan on Jul 1, 2009 9:45 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Volatility and team

Now this is almost exactly what myself and Sandy Kazmir were looking at. It really depends on your offense and your run distribution. This is my general analysis. High FIP and low volatility is better suited for high consistent run scoring teams. The games will always be close, but you’ll be in most of them. Of course this depends on exactly the distribution and FIP. High FIP and high volatility would be better suited for the lower scoring teams. Some games this guy will pitch you into games and sometimes he will totally bomb out. However a High FIP/low vol guy won’t really pitch you into games with that type of offense.

Of course if your FIP is too high with low volatility then you are really screwed.

The key is how many times given the volatility of your starts is a pitcher going to produce a FIP lower than the offensive production.

by matthan on Jul 1, 2009 9:51 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

This is also why people seem to think Jeff is doing better than what he actually is doing

An consistently okay pitcher is going to get much better “mainstream” results when they are teamed with an elite offense.

by matthan on Jul 1, 2009 10:11 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

but Shields averaged half a walk per inning in his first 15 starts in the majors

Sometimes pitchers cannot ever master the strike zone, but with nearly every pitcher, that is one of the last things a pitcher learns at the major league level. The question with Niemann is if those high walk numbers are also an anomoly, or if he will be a high walk pitcher.

by raysfaninminnesota on Jul 1, 2009 9:48 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Walks are associated with young pitchers, but lack of K’s/swinging strikes are not.

by matthan on Jul 1, 2009 9:51 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

agreed

But walks is part of what is being considered here. It does not answer the lack of K’s/swinging strikes, but it is another part of the equasion. However, again, Niemann in his last 3 starts has had a lack of those, but in the four starts prior, he was averaging a K/IP. It seems like it comes and gos in stretches and not a consistent lack of strikeouts and swinging strikes. Which becomes the more consistent option will tell a lot about Niemann’s potential. His minor league numbers in AAA had him at nearly a K/IP.

Another thing worth considering is how is he faring in 2 strike counts. Is he finishing the job, or are they making contact?

by raysfaninminnesota on Jul 1, 2009 9:57 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think the toughest question in baseball to answer is

How a player will truly translate in the next level and how long it will take them to settle in on that level. If Niemann can solve these problems then he can certainly be a good (or very good) starting pitcher. There have been some guys that made the jump and some that haven’t. There is just no way for us to predict that here IMO. The factors that impact that jump are things we just don’t have access to…both qualitatively and quantitatively. All we can really do is look at what he has done in the past and possibly estimate odds based upon similar pitchers in the past. Friedman has a tough job to do, but he has the tools at his disposal to make the most informed decision.

by matthan on Jul 1, 2009 10:01 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Niemann's BABIP is .277 vs the Rays .292

However his LD% is a very low 15.8% with a HR with a 45.1% FB% (lowest BA type of hit team FB% 39.1%) of which 14% is IFFB% (essentially a BABIP of .000, team IFFB% 7.9%). These #;s are almost certainly not sustainable, but to what degree should they regress? Also given his FB% he also has a low HR/FB% of 7%, team 10%. The low line drive % coupled with the fact he does not get taken yard often and induces a buncvh of popups could mean he is tough to get good wood on.

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by FreeZorilla on Jul 1, 2009 10:15 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Niemann's xBABIP

The Rays have a BABIP against on FB of .118. If the Rays have an IFFB% of 7.9%, that means 92.1% of FB’s are OFFB. That means 92.1% time x = .118. The Rays have a BABIP on OFFB of .128.

So if Niemann allowed 45.1% FB, of which 14% were IFFB that gives you an OFFB% of 38.8%.

LD= .720 * .158=.114
GB= .208 * .391=.081
OFFB= .128*.388 =.50
Niemanns xBABIP per BB Type is actually only .245, .032 below his true BABIP.

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by FreeZorilla on Jul 1, 2009 10:29 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

BTW, a .208 BABIP against on GB is a pretty good indicator of how good our infield defense is

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by FreeZorilla on Jul 1, 2009 10:37 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

a few more things to consider

When going back and looking at the Toronto game, there’s a couple more things to keep in mind. One, is looking at Toronto as a hitting team. They rank 3rd in the AL in BA (TB is 2nd), 5th in OBP (TB is 1st) and 6th in BB, and what is interesting in pertaining to Niemann is they rank 12th in Ks. In other words, as a team, they are the 3rd hardest team to strike out (Yankees and Baltimore are the other two).

They also appear to be a team that likes to see a lot of pitches. They swung at only 4 first pitches in an at bat, with two of those coming in the 8th with a runner on base, so they are not being as selective in trying to get back in the game with few opportunities remaining.

Niemann has 2 strike counts 15 times in his game against Toronto. All four of his hits came in 2 strike counts, and 1 walk. A .333 OBP with 2 strikes is a little high. He does need to improve on finishing off hitters, this is true.

But when you take a look at who he was facing, his low strikeout and swinging strike rate is not as alarming in this game at least. Bottom line is he went up against one of the best hitting teams in baseball and one of the hardest teams to strike out, and he won on a day that his counterpart happened to be Roy freaking Halladay. Sounds like a nice start to me.

I think it’s also important reminder that when considering a pitcher’s performance, to also evaluate the team he’s facing.

by raysfaninminnesota on Jul 1, 2009 10:37 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I like how you're trying to excuse the idea of a sub-.200 BABIP as something that shouldn't be alarming.

The ‘win’ isn’t on Niemann. He’s very, very lucky the Jays only got four hits off him.

by R.J. Anderson on Jul 1, 2009 11:07 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

he may be lucky, that I'm not trying to excuse

but there does seem to be some evidence as to why he didn’t get many strikeouts in THIS game.

by raysfaninminnesota on Jul 1, 2009 11:13 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

and i didn't say it wasn't alarming

I said his lack of strikeouts and swinging strike rate in this game wasn’t as alarming. There is a difference.

by raysfaninminnesota on Jul 1, 2009 11:15 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Even still his start wasn't bad

Certainly not 1 run in 7IP, but it wasn’t bad.

by matthan on Jul 1, 2009 11:43 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

and even if he was lucky

even if he were to give up a couple more hits and a couple more runs, 7 innings and 3 runs is still a great start. So, maybe he was lucky to do as well as what he did, but even if he gives up a couple more hits, it’s still a good start.

by raysfaninminnesota on Jul 1, 2009 12:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I read through your post Matt, but not all of the comments.

Thanks for the plug, this looks really good. I like your comparison to Delmon, mainly because, I think the best time to move him would be after the season. A trade would most likely max his value since we still don’t have much room for a guy. Trading Kazmir would provide the most utility for many reasons (would net the most in a trade due to talent plus a decent contract, he’s a name commodity, we clear salary, we can give his spot to another free talent pitcher), but his value is at an all time low right now. Great post all around.

SOSH AUCTION to K ALS

by Sandy Kazmir on Jul 1, 2009 12:17 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

for all the criticism of Niemann's last start

if you go back and actually watch his pitches again, should there have been more hits? Yeah, that’s a very fair assessment. A liner in the first could have gone past Aybar at 2nd for a single. Aaron Hill’s fly ball to left in the 3rd could have been a solo shot. Bautista’s fly to right in the 5th could have been a solo shot. To close out the 6th, the liner caught by crawford in left could have fell for a single. But Wells infield hit could have been an out as well, since it wasn’t exactly hit all that well.

Even if you count all of those, it means instead of 6 shutout innings and 2 hits, Niemann gives up 2 runs and four hits. I fail to see, when actually looking at his pitches, how he did so poorly as RJ states, or that he was very lucky.

He kept his pitch count down. He did a good job of establishing his fastball in the lower half of the plate during his first time through the Jays order and used his off-speed for strikes in the second time through the order.

He didn’t get many strikeouts because they are also the 3rd hardest team to strike out in the American League. How is this a bad or lucky start, even if a few of these bounces don’t go his way?

by raysfaninminnesota on Jul 1, 2009 1:10 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Question

What’s the point in providing this information half-way through a pitcher’s rookie year? The work you did is nice and very thorough. I applaud that. However, it really is meaningless at this point. Correct me if I am wrong. Maybe I’m missing something, but rarely does a rookie season provide what can be expected from a player, not just a pitcher, on a yearly basis.

I’m sure I’m going to get beat up over this post. In general, I enjoy the fanposts and the articles from RJ and the other folks, but sometimes I just don’t get the point of the time it must take to put this stuff together.

by Suckerpunch on Jul 1, 2009 5:37 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I think it's a good point and you shouldn't get much flak

but you don’t see any value whatsoever in a look like this? No one is saying that this is what his career will look like, only that this is what has transpired to this point.

SOSH AUCTION to K ALS

by Sandy Kazmir on Jul 1, 2009 6:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The simple answer: We're just really hot on Jeff Niemann right now.

I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.

by kericr on Jul 2, 2009 11:26 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm trying

Really, I am, but I’m having difficulty seeing the value. Maybe it’s the Shields/Niemann comparison. Or it might just be that I’m not a big enough number cruncher. Or maybe I just need to go home and stop looking at this site while I’m at work. I’m out. Have a good night!

by Suckerpunch on Jul 1, 2009 6:27 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Truer words have not been spoken.

SOSH AUCTION to K ALS

by Sandy Kazmir on Jul 1, 2009 7:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The Hive Mind Knows...

If there is anyone I trust more than Joe Madden, it’s Hunsicker and Friedman. They know what they’re are doing and they concentrate on pitching, defense, and base running. I guess they must know something. But I don’t like big men, they’re fragile. I say build up his stock and then trade him to some lousy N.L. team… the Nationals, lets say.

by The Knight of Tropicana Field on Jul 3, 2009 12:53 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs