Zorilla for MVP?
by FreeZorilla on Jun 4, 2009 9:07 AM EDT
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Sorry, I couldn't resist. Nonetheless, this is the type of season former slap-hitting utlity man Ben Zobrist is having. During the offseason, some people did not even have Any Inning Lightning even projected to make the opening day roster. Then there were the discussions of Zobrist maybe deserving to chip away at the Gabe platoon. In the last few days, there has been some chatter of Zorilla possibly being added as an all-star reserve. Let's go inside the #'s and see just how absurd the title of this post is to date. Here are your top 10 leaders to date in .ISO in the AL along with various other metrics (minimum 150 PA):
|
Name |
BB% |
BB/K |
OBP |
SLG |
OPS |
ISO |
Spd |
wOBA |
IFFB% |
UZR |
|
Ben Zobrist |
15.9% |
0.93 |
0.414 |
0.659 |
1.073 |
0.356 |
5.7 |
0.448 |
0.0% |
5.1 |
|
Jason Bay |
17.0% |
0.84 |
0.41 |
0.624 |
1.033 |
0.339 |
5 |
0.441 |
8.6% |
-9.4 |
|
Carlos Pena |
16.8% |
0.57 |
0.363 |
0.554 |
0.918 |
0.326 |
3.1 |
0.383 |
12.2% |
-0.3 |
|
Mark Teixeira |
13.2% |
0.78 |
0.388 |
0.595 |
0.982 |
0.316 |
1.4 |
0.414 |
9.5% |
-0.4 |
|
Nelson Cruz |
10.2% |
0.47 |
0.365 |
0.6 |
0.965 |
0.303 |
4.1 |
0.416 |
12.5% |
7.6 |
|
Hank Blalock |
3.6% |
0.19 |
0.293 |
0.558 |
0.851 |
0.301 |
4.5 |
0.357 |
9.4% |
0.1 |
|
Kevin Youkilis |
16.0% |
0.74 |
0.482 |
0.664 |
1.147 |
0.299 |
3 |
0.484 |
8.5% |
2.6 |
|
Russell Branyan |
14.0% |
0.54 |
0.421 |
0.614 |
1.036 |
0.295 |
2.7 |
0.438 |
3.6% |
-0.7 |
|
Justin Morneau |
11.3% |
0.74 |
0.414 |
0.632 |
1.046 |
0.294 |
2.5 |
0.434 |
16.4% |
-2.5 |
|
Evan Longoria |
10.2% |
0.45 |
0.391 |
0.614 |
1.005 |
0.292 |
2.9 |
0.426 |
3.1% |
5.8 |
I included IFFB% simply to show that Zobrist's magical swing has yet to produce one single infield pop up. Now let's determine each player's rank within each category excluding IFFB%.
| Name | BB% | BB/K | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | Spd | wOBA | UZR | Total |
| Ben Zobrist | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 19 |
| Jason Bay | 1 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 34 |
| Carlos Pena | 2 | 6 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 6 | 59 |
| Mark Teixeira | 6 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 60 |
| Nelson Cruz | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 56 |
| Hank Blalock | 10 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 10 | 5 | 73 |
| Kevin Youkilis | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 28 |
| Russell Branyan | 5 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 8 | 51 |
| Justin Morneau | 7 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 9 | 52 |
| Evan Longoria | 8 | 9 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 10 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 59 |
If we sort by their total ranks we get this:
| Name | Total |
| Ben Zobrist | 19 |
| Kevin Youkilis | 28 |
| Jason Bay | 34 |
| Russell Branyan | 51 |
| Justin Morneau | 52 |
| Nelson Cruz | 56 |
| Carlos Pena | 59 |
| Evan Longoria | 59 |
| Mark Teixeira | 60 |
| Hank Blalock | 73 |
Pretty remarkable right? I sincerely hope we never have to have the everyday player debate again.
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Comments
In my big money fantasy league someone dropped him a few weeks ago cause he was too inconsistent
I blew my number 1 waiver priority on him in a heartbeat. My OF is stacked but Cruz is a special talent.
My strategy of picking up mad Rangers players is working out meh
Cruz: Baller
Kinsler: Mega Baller
Blaloch: Great value
Salty: To the waivers
Chris Davis: ??????
Until Next Time,
The Sports Chief
by Top Gun Numba 1 on Jun 4, 2009 10:43 AM EDT up reply actions
I can't be bothered to spell correctly.
Until Next Time,
The Sports Chief
by Top Gun Numba 1 on Jun 4, 2009 10:44 AM EDT up reply actions
You'll be pleased to know that my team has the most Jews on it
Until Next Time,
The Sports Chief
by Top Gun Numba 1 on Jun 4, 2009 10:45 AM EDT up reply actions
That is to say 2
Braun and Kinsler
Until Next Time,
The Sports Chief
by Top Gun Numba 1 on Jun 4, 2009 10:45 AM EDT up reply actions
When spelled Blaloch, Hank makes 3
Until Next Time,
The Sports Chief
by Top Gun Numba 1 on Jun 4, 2009 10:46 AM EDT up reply actions
Also, I know this isn't you, but I kind of wish it was
Until Next Time,
The Sports Chief
by Top Gun Numba 1 on Jun 4, 2009 10:47 AM EDT up reply actions
"Apart from a reference to Pynchon, I still couldn't give a fuck about Spymaster"
Holy fuck. That guy’s like a more obnoxious, annoying version of me. And we both have beards.
Somebody fuck me in the gallbladder.
I was assuming his reference to Checkov was about the Star Trek man, not the Playwrite though
Until Next Time,
The Sports Chief
by Top Gun Numba 1 on Jun 4, 2009 10:52 AM EDT up reply actions
Haha, nice Murray Head reference in your tweet
Until Next Time,
The Sports Chief
by Top Gun Numba 1 on Jun 4, 2009 10:53 AM EDT up reply actions
RT
jasoncollette One night in Bangkok made a hard man humble – David Carradine found dead, hanging in his hotel closet
Death is funny.
Until Next Time,
The Sports Chief
by Top Gun Numba 1 on Jun 4, 2009 10:54 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
There's a Five Point Palm Exploding Heart Technique joke here....
No idea what it is though
RD over and out.
by ReasonableDoubt on Jun 4, 2009 11:10 AM EDT up reply actions
How does the Five Point Palm Exploding Heart Technique relate to an obvious auto-erotic asphyxiation death?
Until Next Time,
The Sports Chief
by Top Gun Numba 1 on Jun 4, 2009 11:15 AM EDT up reply actions
He needs to be our starting second baseman
At this point you just cannot argue with it.
I know RJ compares him to Brady Anderson. I disagree with that. What evidence do we have that shows that Benzo cannot sustain this? Well at least 3/4 of what he is doing now? Sometimes a player changes. His style of play, his work ethic, his swing, his approach, and then his numbers. And in the case of Anderson…roids.
We need to throw out all his numbers pre-transformation. They simply are irrelevant to the new Benzo. It is comparing apples to oranges. Sure the orange sample size isn’t as large as we’d like, but its growing. I know this doesn’t happen much in baseball, but it happens in statistics all the time. At some point we have to stop thinking the former numbers are going to heavily influence the future numbers.
That being said I don’t think Benzo is his good. However he could be a top 3 offensive 2b in the AL and a top 5 overall. That is attainable at this point. Frankly odds are that is what he will be if given the chance.
Another thing
If he gets a full time gig at 2nd then we should expect to see defensive improvement over time given his lack of time at the position.
I think he's going to be pretty awful at 2B, regardless. But, that's okay - I think we'll accept a .500+ slugging percentage for shitty defense.
The more interesting scenario to me next year is the outfield. I could easily see Crawford being dealt, with Zobrist taking over LF, letting Brignac/Aybar take over at 2B.
I can see that also
But then we have Jennings.
The Benzo emergence is pretty nice, but now that has increased the logjam. We are going to see some people going.
Sure... it is interesting though
It is just interesting to ponder about which direction they will go.
In the OF you are going to have CC/BJ/Jennings and possibly Benzo for two spots.
Middle Infield you have Bartlett, Brignac, Aybar, and possibly Benzo for two spots. (I’m assuming Aki is as good as gone and of course Beckham is awhile away).
SP we have Kazmir, Neimann, Sonnanstine, Davis, and Hellickson for 2 spots plus others in the pipeline (I’m assuming we keep Garza).
The only weak links at 1b and catcher. I think Navi just isn’t good enough and Pena will have to go at some point. But with all of this trade potential something will happen.
FYI how much is Bartlett going to make next year? Holy crap.
I agree
But you never know.
Also whenever we look at depth we forget about what we get in return. If we trade CC next year we certainly are going to get some very strong pieces back. At least one piece that is projected to be close to a star and pretty darn close to hitting the majors.
This.
Which sucks. I’d love to keep CC, but it just makes too much sense to deal him after the season and bring back some critical pieces.
Zobrist in 2010, Jennings in 2011 and beyond.
Trading CC this off-season after the year he is having
Should honestly net the most out of any trade in the past few years.
In all fairness...
Your using the same stats twice when you have OBP, SLG, and OPS in there. It would be more accurate to to drop either both OBP and SLG together or just drop OPS.
You then get Zorilla with a score of 14 and Youk with 26, a 12 point spread instead of 9.
M.V.Z. Most Valuable Zorilla!
tru
Just grabbed most of fangraphs advanced metrics. This isn’t to say Zo is really the MVP, but he continues to be underrated. Obviously Speed Score is hardly as important as OPS. He’s jsut doing amazing across all facets of the game.
Agreed.
Hence my signature. Thanks for taking the time to put this together. It’s amazing how expectations for a player can change during the course of the season. I was at the game a few weeks ago where he tied it in the 9th with a HR, and everyone fully expected him to do it. I was at the game this past Tuesday where he hit a game-tying 2R HR, and everyone fully expedted him to do it. As for last night, was there really anyone who didn’t think he was going to hit that slam? I honestly see him being an All-Star this season joining Longo, CC, and Howell.
M.V.Z. Most Valuable Zorilla!
How many all-stars are the Rays going to have this year?
We are going to have a ton considering we are a small market team and under .500.
I could easily see 4.
All Stars
Longo will be voted in, so will Pena. Barty is way behind in votes, but deserves to be there. How many picks does Madden get?
Pena might not.
Morneau, Tex, Adrian Gonzalez, Youklis… Plus, it’s an NL park so no DH. Noway that many 1B go.
Jeter Sucks.
by PriceMultiCyYoungs on Jun 4, 2009 10:08 AM EDT up reply actions
Not sure why I said Adrian Gonzalez. I'm an idiot.
Jeter Sucks.
by PriceMultiCyYoungs on Jun 4, 2009 10:09 AM EDT up reply actions
Eh there are more high profile guys + better players than Pena
He is a solid player, but isn’t near the top of his position to warrant an all star selection
Teixeira, Cabrera, Youk, and Morneau are always going to be a better player than him. Especially among fans (which undervalue defense). I can see Pena matching Miggy due to defense, but that could be a stretch. Miggy is a better hitter by a legit margin. At best Pena is 4th in the AL and possibly 5th.
Also Branyon would be a 1B based upon all-star consideration. He is a having a better year than Pena also.
Though, I'll confess, that's cherry picking stats.
Youk and Tex topped him in wOBA last year, I believe. Still, he’s the best slugger and defender out of the bunch.
Youk and Teixeira are damn good defenders
I think that is largely a wash IMHO. Yes Pena has more power, but both of those other guys are far better hitters. Pena hits for nothing of an average and strikes out entirely too much. Therefore those guys are going to consistently out OPS him. And yes K’s do matter somewhat.
And also while Pena may have a higher ISO
I doubt he is really going to outslug them on a consistent basis.
He has been for the last 2 years, and this is going on a third.
The man loves to hit doubles and home runs, and walks about as often – if not more – than the others. The 30-60 extra points in batting average top him, though.
He out-slugged them in 2007
Not in 2008 and not so far in 2009.
I think we're getting into semantics here.
Pena has had better pure power over the last three season than Tex and Youk.
Yes pure power
If this was an invite to the home run derby then I’d take Pena over them. Since we are talking all-star we have to look at the overall game. Youk and Teixeira are clearly better than Pena in that respect. It isn’t even close IMHO. Pena is closer to Morneau and Miggy, but I’d still take those two over Pena.
The only metrics that are in Penas favor are ISO and Walks. He is the king there. Defense he shares with that bunch (minus Miggy).
Out of Cabera, Morneau, Youk, and Teixeira…
Pena would be in last in both Slugging, and OPS for 2008 and so far in 2009. All 4 of those guys have outperformed him. And while Pena walks the most he far and away strikes out the most out of the bunch.
Frankly it is very clear Teixeira, Morneau, and Youk are better players than Pena. Defense is what hurts Cabrera.
I know it is surprising (I'm surprised myself)
But Youk, Morneau, Cabrera, and Teixeira all outslugged Pena in 2008 and so far in 2009.
Pena is still really good and a valuable asset
But since to be an “all star” you need to be top 2 or 3 at your position there is just no way Pena deserves to go.
And like I said Branyon would be a 1B for this all star game. He has outperformed Pena also. Pena would be the 5th to 6th choice at 1b.
Better defender than Tex?
Jeter Sucks.
by PriceMultiCyYoungs on Jun 4, 2009 10:23 AM EDT up reply actions
Yeah that is definitely pushing it
I think Teixeira, Pena, and Youk are about even defensively. The differences between them aren’t going to significantly impact a season.
I think Teix is clearly better then Pena and Youk
Both of them are about equal.
"Where we all wait in earnest with pudding in hand for the Upton comet to sail through the roofed skies, so that we may meet Him."
Wait are you saying Pena and Youk are equal
I hate Youk but I will have to disagree with you there.
At best Pena is the 5th best 1B in the AL
Free Ray Durham!
I'm pretty sure he is only talking about defense
by nolesblogger on Jun 4, 2009 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions
Ya I was talking overall
The Pena for the AS game stuff should stop though. He just doesn’t deserve it
Free Ray Durham!
Yeah I was only talking about defense.
That being said, it’s not too late for him to make it. He IS in a slump right now, whether we realize it or not. If he can get his batting average back up to around .250, he should be there on his home run total alone.
"Where we all wait in earnest with pudding in hand for the Upton comet to sail through the roofed skies, so that we may meet Him."
Also Carlos isn't wearing a Yankees or Sux uni
I think Russell Branyan should be an All Star. He deserves it
Rays baseball + Colorado Football= amazing
MADDON should only have a true pick of one or two spots as he needs to make sure every team as a player selected.
So he probably will pick someone like Zobrist or Bartlett due to the logjam that will be at first. He also could help raise his trade value by selecting him. (if they considered selling high this offseason)
Jeter Sucks.
by PriceMultiCyYoungs on Jun 4, 2009 10:17 AM EDT up reply actions
Well, either I guess.
Jeter Sucks.
by PriceMultiCyYoungs on Jun 4, 2009 11:51 AM EDT up reply actions
you know, something funny about that
Well here comes the rape…
All of the information I was going to use to debunk the Zorbist myth got obsolete real quick. While I haven’t poored all my efforts into it (I’m hesitant to go pitch f/x and find a specific pitch he has weakness against). I’ll admit here that I’m completley baffled. He has a .440 wOBA and while he has had an ounce on luck he has been playing somewhere between .410 – .420, and it is all justified by batting ball rates (which wasn’t before). Before, I’m sure you know, his batted ball rates were much more severe. If I wanted to sound smart (instead of retarded like I do now) I should’ve jumped on it earlier, knowing something would change (I was assuming that when all the rates changed the wOBA would drop as well, but it hasn’t).
Nice prediction, I got nothing to counteract it. In my short time of relatively advanced analysis I’ve never seen something so ridiculously… well ridiculous. While I still think its fair to expect some regression (some) I see nothing (anymore) that warrants me claiming that he can’t keep a .400 wOBA. Before he was playing like a .370 – .380 wOBA (per the absolutley ridiculous batted ball rates), but now… I’m baffled.
I’m going to crawl into my hole and tend to my wounds
and when I said here comes the rape
I was implying that it was you who was doing the penetrating me and it was me playing to my namesake
I never agreed with his Batted Ball% anyway
He is hitting a lot of deep liners being classified as flyballs. Last night’s opposite field HR probably had the highest trajectory. No pop-ups.
Its the rare example of a player making a dramatic process adjustment to his swing requiring the discarding of all past data outside of discipline. The extreme results are incredible and were unpredictable. I didn’t know Zobrist would do this. I just recognized the past data was useless.
Nonetheless, was jsut having some fun. Your analysis was very good, just had to agree to disagree.
Pena has been hitting poorly lately
Last week – .118/.250/.353 1HR
last 2 weeks – .167/.327/.405 3HR
last 4 weeks – .179/.349/.381 4HR
Crazy Pena stat of the day -
After 1-0 – 1.287 OPS
After 0-1 – .601 OPS
Free Ray Durham!
He was released from the Atlantic League.
That’s a pretty good sign it’s time to hang up the spikes.
Poor Abernathy.
baseball is played on a calculator in your grandmother's basement, not on the field
Just out of curiosity..
What effect does playing left field in Fenway have on Jason Bay’s UZR?
"Clogging up the bases isn't that great to me." -Dusty Baker on OBP
He was a bad defender before he got to Fenway.
He’s only had one positive UZR year in left in his career.
I don't think it's possible to have a positive UZR in Fenway.
Defensive metrics don’t know how to deal with the short porch.
Tools Whore
It's possible.... but Jacoby Bellsbury played 58 games in LF in 2008 and notched a positive UZR (9.3).
Regardless, Bay was bad in Pittsburgh, too.
Not nearly as bad as he was in Fenway though.
Tools Whore
so I got lost a bit in all the all-star mess
but I would say Zobrist, Bartlett, and Howell make it at the most and no one else.
Howell won't make it, but CC should if he keeps it up
I could see Garza or Shields making it if they have a good June
Free Ray Durham!
Crawford won't beat out Bay for the starting job, sadly.
Which is a damned shame. Crawford’s the all around better player.
outfielders that should make it based on stats
Bay
Nelson Cruz
Adam Jones
CC
Nick Markakis
Torri Hunter
maybe Johnny Damon
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