Help me DRaysBay - Looking for opinions on Pena, Who is the real Pena?

by ChadGod on Jun 5, 2009 4:19 AM EDT

I'm a huge A's fan - love the Rays also. I really love Carlos Pena because I have followed his entire career (since it started in Oakland) and I am so glad to see him tap into that immense potential.

I am also an avid fantasy baseball player and I love to draft Pena on my teams, but I haven't been able to watch him play at all and I was hoping some Rays fans could rationalize his inconsistency for me:

Since the beginning of 2007, Pena has been awesome for a lot of the time - All of 2007, Second half of 2008, first ~30 games of 2009.

And then not so awesome - First half of 2008, this last month.

WHAT IS THE DEAL?!

Is he just looking totally lost or should be still fully expect a turnaround to his early season/second half of 08/2007 form?

Also, while I'm at it I might as well ask about people's thoughts on the sustainability of Bartletts and Zobrists offense?

Thanks

This post was written by a member of the DRaysBay community and does not necessarily express the views or opinions of DRaysBay staff.

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IMO

Some guys are just streaky and tend to lose their swing a bit for stretches, and Pena’s just one of those guys; however, even when his swing is off, he’s still valuable due to his eye and defense, so it doesn’t end up being that big of a deal.

Bartlett’s offense is probably completely unsustainable. His bat was worse in 2008 than we expected, so a little bit of it is probably regression, but there’s nothing out there to lead me to believe that he’s suddenly become a power hitter. Some guys just have that big stretch, and based on luck as much as anything, sometimes it stretches for a full season. Before getting hurt, he was having his Zoilo Versalles year.

Zobrist changed his approach some in 2008 and changed his swing in the offseason (some kind of swing coach. so it’s possible that his power surge is somewhat more for real this year, although there’s still probably some flukiness involved. The on-base is probably for real though. In the minors, he was always a .100+ IsoD guy, he just hadn’t shown it much in the majors before because who the hell isn’t going to throw over the plate to a guy with a career .450 OPS? Now that pitchers know who he is, he should at least continue to walk, even if the power fades.

But don’t listen to me too much on these – there are some guys on here much smarter than I when it comes to this kind of thing.

Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."

by Brickhaus on Jun 5, 2009 7:55 AM EDT reply actions

Pena is now a handsome, affable, solid defensive version of Jack Cust. Plan accordingly

Until Next Time,
The Sports Chief

by Top Gun Numba 1 on Jun 5, 2009 9:12 AM EDT reply actions

Well said.

"Where we all wait in earnest with pudding in hand for the Upton comet to sail through the roofed skies, so that we may meet Him."

by kericr on Jun 5, 2009 9:45 AM EDT up reply actions

On the year Los is K'ing about 6% more against RH than his career avg.

That might be part of it, I just looked at that particular split. He is still OPS’ing around .820 against lefties, which is well above his .757 career OPS against LH. The K’s are alarming, but he is doing everything else as well as last year.

Rays Win!

by Sandy Kazmir on Jun 5, 2009 10:25 AM EDT reply actions

A few more stats (not broken out by handedness of pitcher)

Year BB% K%
2007 17.4 29.0
2008 16.4 33.9
2009 17.4 35.9
Avg 13.6 30.8

- Average is Pena’s career avg, not league avg.
- While his walk rate continues to be higher it’s not fluctuating much year over year.
- His K’s have increased every year the past two years and are trending away from his career average

For comparison sake (as mentioned above) we can look at Cust (not factoring in fielding)
Cust BB% K%
2007 21.0 41.5
2008 18.8 41.0
2009 12.1 28.2
Avg 18.1 39.3

- This year being the outlier (smaller sample size), Pena seems to compare a bit favorably to Cust, walking at about the same rate, but striking out less.

Not to pick on Cust, but he’s usually hailed as an all or nothing, strike out or homer guy. Here’s a look at Pena and Cust (ISO for CP followed by ISO for JC, then OBP for Pena followed by JC. Can’t figure out how to put these tables in here)

Year CP JC CP JC
2007 .345 .248 .411 .408
2008 .247 .245 .377 .375
2009 .323 .172 .366 .338
avg .250 .226 .356 .376

- Relatively speaking, Pena still seems a significant upgrade over Cust, even when taking fielding out of the equation. Similar walk rates, better K rates,

One question on my own mini-analysis that hopefully someone can answer. With relatively similar OBP, but with Pena exceeding in ISO, is it safe to say that while on base a similar amount of time, Pena is sitting on second (due to higher ISO) more often?

by Buc Wild on Jun 5, 2009 11:39 AM EDT up reply actions

I believe Pena is triking out an alarming pace because he's pronouncing Tobacco, tob "o"cco.

Once he straightens this out he’ll be fine and hitting towering HR’s again.

by ConnorManning on Jun 5, 2009 12:36 PM EDT reply actions

And he's "S"triking out too.....

by ConnorManning on Jun 5, 2009 12:36 PM EDT up reply actions

So in your guys opinions the strikeouts will regress or not?

I would think there will be some regression. I’m looking for 40 HRs from Pena this year.

I miss Chad God

by ChadGod on Jun 5, 2009 2:13 PM EDT reply actions

When he gets hot again, I think they may go down a bit, but he is going to K well over 150 times this season.

I see him putting up numbers in between 07’ and 08’…………probably .250/.380/.550 with 40HR and a lot of K’s.

by twenty5psi on Jun 5, 2009 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions

i'll take that.

by walkoffwalk on Jun 6, 2009 12:16 PM EDT up reply actions

I feel like 40 HRs might be a tad optimistic

But I really hope so. Pena is truly a badass power hitter in my book. His just really love his approach, which is essentially to sit fastball until he either has a 2-0 or better count at which point he switches to sitting inside fastball only, or once he gets two strikes he stops cheating fastball as much.

When Pena connects on an inside fastball when he is sitting inside fastball…he hits the ball with immense impact force, so fun to watch if you love power hitting.

I miss Chad God

by ChadGod on Jun 8, 2009 2:51 AM EDT up reply actions

What about Burrell?

It seems Carlos’ slump has coincided with Burrell going on the DL. Even though Burrell wasn’t tearing it up, pitchers respected him and Carlos was getting better pitches to hit with Burrell protecting him in the lineup. Pitchers are going more out of the strike zone now, and Pena is chasing pitches he laid off of earlier in the season.

by raysnbran on Jun 5, 2009 9:29 PM EDT reply actions

Carlos Pena

Los is a great power hitter also great defense but he strikes out WAY too much,i really think when Barlett comes off the DL he wont continue to hit 360 but i think 300 to 320 is definetely possible this year and his defense is also very good last year he had lots of throwing errors to first he’s definetely better at that this year,as for Zobrist i think the guy is a lock to hit 20 to 30 homers this year and beyond,he defense is above average i think if Maddon would give him one position and stop moving him all over i think his defense could be outstanding but Maddon keeps moving him to second shortstop and the outfield leave him in one position i think he would be outstanding.

by Jason B on Jun 5, 2009 10:17 PM EDT reply actions