Navigation: Jump to content areas:


Pro Quality. Fan Perspective.
Login-facebook
Around SBN: Explaining Jeremy Lin's Early, Surprising Success

Dioner Navarro Does Some Silly Things

Defensive abilities going into a slump just like offensive abilities is a concept some find hard to grasp. Sometimes players have minor injuries that cause them to miss a step here or there, or they go through a spell where the ball is difficult to pick up, or they just have some bad luck on glove placement. It happens. Even to catchers, as Dioner Navarro proved today.  Navarro sailed two throws to second base over his middle infielders' heads. I don't know what the tallest combined middle infield in baseball history is, but both Ben Zobrist and Reid Brignac stand 6'3" inches. There's no familiarity concept here, Navarro isn't used to throwing to taller infielders or anything like that, these were just poor throws. The blame shouldn't be placed solely on Navarro though, David Price allowed Alex Rodriguez to take off, first move, and force Navarro into a grab and fire maneuver.

Later on Navarro would try and pick Melky Cabrera off third, something that failed miserably. I don't know if Navarro nails him with a perfect throw or not, but there's no way of knowing whether the Rays escape that inning without allowing a run. Yeah, Price struck out Jeter then got Damon to roll out, but both approaches change if there's a runner on third. Bad play, but the run may have found a way to score anyways.

It's only one game, and only three plays, and I'd rather not have anyone place too much emphasis on the events. Still, given our relatively lack of ability to place numbers on catcher defense, I'm wondering if John Jaso could be worse behind the plate when offense is accounted for.

ZiPS has Navarro getting ~300 more at-bats with a .296 wOBA, good for -8.6 offensive runs. Even if John Jaso between his .309 and .323 ZiPS and CHONE projected wOBAs, over 320-330 plate appearances that's a six run swing. Six runs, gained just from making John Jaso the everyday catcher. Is Jaso six runs worse than Navarro defensively over that same time? Would Jaso butcher play-calling duties? I don't know the answer to either of those questions.

I don't think Navarro is this bad of a player, but sometimes offensive regression ignores our arbitrary schedule length and takes longer than 162 games. Navarro's greatest assets right now are things unquantifiable, and forgive me if that makes me a bit weary on keeping him in the lineup when there's a chance of an upgrade being available.

Star-divide

Regarding Price, this was a pretty mediocre start. The control was lacking, and he missed away countless times. Price threw two spike curves today, about 30 sliders, and the rest fastballs. I guess on the positive side, if the worst Price start is going to be one where he gives up three runs, then we should be pretty happy. On the negative side, the same issues we've been talking about popped up again. He's going to have some bumps in the road, just keep his talent in mind and don't set your expectations too high.

It seems odd that just a month ago people were trying to figure out how Willy Aybar and Ben Zobrist get their share of at-bats. Today both were batting in the top five of the lineup and are essentially regulars. This could change soon, with Pat Burrell and Evan Longoria returning, although it's still funny how things work out.

Matt Joyce was one faint breeze away from hitting a homerun off Mariano Rivera.

In many ways, Joe Dillon is basically Ty Wigginton. The blasé veteran who hustles, hits for some pop against lefties, and has a likeable demeanor. Consider it a good thing that 1-2 win players of Wigginton's ilk are no longer thought of as amongst the team's best players and are instead correctly thought of as role players.

More on Navarro, I can't believe I was actually for a sacrifice bunt from him in the 9th. When a sabermetrically inclined fan wants you to bunt in the 9th inning when you lead by one, in a wind tunnel of a stadium, that means your season is ranking in on the bad scale as approximately "Flipper". A runner on second with one out has a RE of 0.72, runner on first with one out is 0.55, and nobody on, two out 0.11. It didn't matter in the long run, since Navarro essentially bunted and the Rays scored a few more runs, but really, Navarro's season has been an absolute nightmare.

Reason 14 as to why you cannot demote Sonnanstine: Team's best pinch runner.

Reason 642 why B.J. is cooler than you: Those sunglasses.

Reason 643: Over his last ~110 plate appearances his OPS is near .800.

I can't remember the last time I saw both managers ditch the DH rule during one game. The Rays by moving Joe Dillon to the field, and the Yanks by doing the same with Jorge Posada. Given that the Rays bench was essentially Michel Hernandez and Gabe Gross, I think we can all agree it's a good thing the game ended before that lineup slot came up again.

I kept thinking we would only have two games against the Yankees, then I realized we play them Monday too. I don't know who designed the Friday-Monday series, but I'm not a fan. It just throws everything off.

Comment 32 comments  |  0 recs  | 

Do you like this story?

Comments

Display:

I would like to see Jaso in the majors

it’s worth a try

Rays baseball + Colorado Football= amazing

by raysfan81 on Jun 6, 2009 8:24 PM EDT reply actions  

.229/.319/.364

Jaso is not exactly making an inspiring effort to get called up

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Jun 6, 2009 9:13 PM EDT up reply actions  

From my POV, Navarro just hasn't had it at all this year.

Obviously his bat has been dead, but he’s really looked bad behind the plate. You have to remember he had a horrible April behind the plate with about a trillion passed balls where it was pretty clear he wasn’t watching the ball to his glove and it did extend into early May before it seemed to taper off. This is 1st half 2007 Navarro. This Navarro is God Awful. The Rays may need to find a catcher; I don’t know what’s up with him, but he’s a bad baseball player right now.

"Where we all wait in earnest with pudding in hand for the Upton comet to sail through the roofed skies, so that we may meet Him."

by kericr on Jun 6, 2009 10:04 PM EDT up reply actions  

Preachin to the choir.

Joe Maddon just needs to realize finally…

This is GARZA!!!

by PenaColada on Jun 6, 2009 11:48 PM EDT up reply actions  

Preaching to the choir brother.

Joe Maddon just needs to finally realize…

This is GARZA!!!

by PenaColada on Jun 6, 2009 11:51 PM EDT up reply actions  

I don't think he will be relegated to the bench

but he may not be a regular at any position, unless Maddon prefers him at 2B to Aybar. Rather, he will probably start most games but at different positions. Apparently he can handle that and still maintain his offense which makes him even more valuable.

I suppose the Rays could demote Joyce and make Zobrist the regular right fielder, but I don’t think that is likely. If they demote Joyce, which I think is very possible, they will return to a Gross/Kapler platoon I think.

by bobr on Jun 6, 2009 11:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

Bob, do you think Brigs will go down?

where he can play everyday when Barty returns? The Rays could utilize a 2B/RF platoon of Aybar/Zo/Gross with Zo playing everyday if they are really going to send Joyce back down.

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Jun 7, 2009 9:33 AM EDT up reply actions  

Lance is getting exposed as an awesome pitcher, 54% GB

We knew he wasn’t a strikeout pitcher when we got him. His babip is pretty low,.243, but he could be helped by our awesome IF (when they are all on the field at the same time). Choate I don’t put as much faith in, but if used strictly as a Loogy I don’t see how he is any worse than Shouse at this point. Trading Burrell would be a colossally bad move IMO. We have a GREAT power hitter signed to a great deal. Don’t put much stock in his start, because he can still rake. If he is saving up his streak this year for the end run we will be very, very hard to beat.

Rays Win!

by Sandy Kazmir on Jun 7, 2009 10:23 AM EDT up reply actions  

Disagree

But that’s what we’re here for.

In Burrell’s case the Rays are doing better w/o him. Why not trade his ass along with the money he isn’t worth and get someone who could close the flood gates in the late innings? If you think about it, a stopper is more valuable than Burrell’s bat even if he’s hitting like Dillon is now.

Navi? I postured toward VMart because of what happened in the series and what’s happening in May. If Pena goes on his strike out spree in the playoffs we can kiss advancing or winning goodbye with an ice cold Carlos and an automatic out in Navarro in the line up.

BTW, good post.

by ConnorManning on Jun 7, 2009 10:45 AM EDT up reply actions  

We have stoppers.

Their names are Howell and Balfour.

Trading a perennial two-win player after one bad month and his first injury for a middle reliever is a waste. Just promote Winston Abreu.

by R.J. Anderson on Jun 7, 2009 10:48 AM EDT up reply actions  

I agree

It’s easy to get on PTB right now, but we still need that RH power bat to sandwich around Pena. PTB went on the DL 5-11-09, since then his OPS has gone from 1.022 to .897. Is there anyway to see his pitch type splits post- PTB DL stint?

Rays Win!

by Sandy Kazmir on Jun 7, 2009 10:56 AM EDT up reply actions  

since then his OPS has gone from 1.022 to .897

This refer’s to Pena, if it isn’t clear.

Rays Win!

by Sandy Kazmir on Jun 7, 2009 10:56 AM EDT up reply actions  

boo ya

March&April/Last 30
FB=61.6%/59.1%
SL= 13.5/16.1
CT=5.5/1.7
CB=8.6/8.1
CH=9.41/11.8

Success rate vs. these pitches on the year /c
FB=.93
SL=.92
CT=1.64
CB=1.42
CH=.32

He’s seeing less FB and more SL which he is about equal at, but less CT which he mashes. He is seeing less CB which he also crushes, and more CH which is his worst pitch.

Rays Win!

by Sandy Kazmir on Jun 7, 2009 11:37 AM EDT up reply actions  

To a point

I’d like to see Balfour juicing it up there in the mid 90’s again rather than hitting 89 on the radar gun all to often. And WTF was that umpire looking at when Grant throws a pecker high fastball down the middle of the plate against Posada and he calls it ball four?

Stopper issue with Howell? When he doesn’t hit his spots batters tend to hit his 84 MPH heater a looooooong way. Howell has to stay, I’m talking closer.

Now, you can chastise this move all you want. Why mess with the SP rotation if Sonny gets on track and Kaz gets healthy?

If Scottie gets his velocity back I’d like to see Joe put him in as closer and just tell Kaz to get out there and throw it as hard as you can. I can’t see anyone else on this team in the role of closer besides Price. He pitched like crap yesterday and still only gave up 2 hits. That guys phenomenal! He’s the streak buster.

Kaz for closer!

by ConnorManning on Jun 7, 2009 11:32 AM EDT up reply actions  

I do think that is possible.

I think this is one of those cases where there is no one clear right decision but rather a number of reasonable options in which many factors will play a role-financial included.

For example, it seems pretty obvious that Kapler should go, but aside from not wanting to eat the remainder of his $1+ salary, it is possible the Rays believe he is due to start hitting and they would be losing him just as he is about to contribute.

Some people call the Rays reluctance to change things too quickly stubborness. I don’t think that is so because there is ample evidence that they will change their minds when confronted with enough evidence that they have been wrong.

Rather I consider their approach having the courage of their convictions, something we saw in 2006-2007 when it seemed there was no significant improvement while they stayed the course. Having signed Kapler for a specific purpose this off-season, I don’t think they are being stubborn about him. I think they simply trust the judgment of their staff who wanted him and are not yet convinced they were wrong.

Oops, I strayed off topic. The only way I see Brignac staying in TB is if Maddon decides to make him the regular second baseman, and I think that very unlikely. What would be the point of having him sit on the bench here or only play against righties? And given Zobrist’s and Aybar’s performance so far, why have Brignac play regularly in the place of either of them? Isn’t it more likely they keep Dillon?

by bobr on Jun 7, 2009 11:01 AM EDT up reply actions  

good synopsis

Brignac isn’t ready for the show. Zobrist should be announced as the every day 2B with Aybar the utility player. How bad is it that Dillon is killing the ball and deserves his role on this team yet PtB will come off the shelf Friday. If you’re Dillon, life just aint fair.

Kaplers the driver, Dioner navigates on their trip to Montgomery.

by ConnorManning on Jun 7, 2009 11:36 AM EDT up reply actions  

because having them play SS now (without brignac or bartlett)

would be funny to watch defensively…. for other people

it would be vomit-enducing for us…

by Navi's_Navy on Jun 7, 2009 2:33 PM EDT up reply actions  

Quick Rebuttle

while I agree that catcher defense is unquantifiable (other than throwing runners out, which Navi has been traditionally good at, and he doesn’t, anecodtally, seem to be good at blocking balls). I still take my chances with the catcher we believe can play good defense instead of Jaso who projects as below average offensively anyway (still projects better than Navi). I still don’t know if Navi stays around .300 for his wOBA though…

We suspect Jaso is bad defensively, and he doesn’t project too well offensively (and hasn’t been playing well in AAA regardless), so I’m similarly skeptical to insert someone in the lineup who hasn’t been succeeding at an easier level, and the projections aren’t necessarily favorable for his improved skill (batting) anyway.

I’m not saying Navi will continue to be a viable option for a top team, but Jaso right now or Michel/Shawn at any point is no better at all.

by Navi's_Navy on Jun 7, 2009 2:37 PM EDT reply actions  

Comments For This Post Are Closed


User Tools

Founded in 2005, DRaysBay is home to, "Progressive statistical analysis and reasoned argument."

Please read our Community Guidelines.

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recommended FanPosts

Small
Zobrist vs Pedroia vs Cano
Scaled_php_small
Rays Community Prospect #31 Runoff
127992041_extra_large_small
Fantasy Baseball 2012

Recent FanPosts

Scaled_php_small
Rays Community Prospect #33
Scaled_php_small
Rays Community Prospect #32
Scaled_php_small
Rays Community Prospect #31
Scaled_php_small
Rays Community Prospect #30 (Again)
Scaled_php_small
Rays Community Prospect #30 Runoff
Small
Take A Moment To Rosterbate
Scaled_php_small
Rays Community Prospect #30
Cloudtree_small
Statistics Manager at ESPN (Job Opening)

+ New FanPost All FanPosts >

FanShots

Quick hits of video, photos, quotes, chats, links and lists that you find around the web.

Recent FanShots

ESPN Chat with Matt Moore
Danny Clyburn: 1974-2012
Joe Maddon Town Hall Contest
Hickey said as of now all of the starters -- Wade Davis, Jeff Niemann,...
White Sox sign Dan Johnson
Indians acquire Canzler
Justin Ruggiano to Elect Free Agency
Dougdirt over at MinorLeagueBall compiled John Sickels' rankings with WAR values from Victor Wang's research.

Thread here.
The increasingly desperate search for offense has caused some teams to...
Zobrist wallpaper I made :]
Actual Link: http://i1207.photobucket.com/albums/bb472/lewiedesigns/Wallpapers/Zobristwallpaper.jpg

+ New FanShot All FanShots >

DRB Fantasy Baseball

Friends of the Site

DRB Suggestion Box

Drb4_medium


Managers

Slowsky__1__small Steve Slowinski

Dad_small Jason Collette

Brad_small BWoodrum

Price_small Erik Hahmann

Analysts

Lob-city_design_small rglass44

Untitled_small EminenceFront

Small Mulva

Rutg_uakjmedjwh9ndzd4lkll_small Imperialism32

100_1952_small MrNegative1

Steak-with-crown_small CBJones

Whelk_small Whelk

Small PGP

Scaled_php_small mr. maniac

Tampa_theatre_small jcmitchell

Me_small John Gregg