Evan Longoria Vs. Tim Lincecum Three Years Later
by Tommy Rancel on Jul 10, 2009 2:22 PM EDT
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PrintThree years ago the Rays were ready to draft Tim Lincecum with the third pick in the 2006 MLB Draft. Later on in life in a radio interview, Andrew Friedman said the Rays were not only ready to draft Lincecum, but the two sides had discussed a contract. The reason the Rays targeted Lincecum is because they were under the impression that the player atop their draft board, Evan Longoria, would go second overall to the Colorado Rockies. The Rockies decided to draft Greg Reynolds instead of Longoria and the rest is history. Longoria is the reigning AL Rookie of the Year and a two time all star. Reynolds has pitched 62 innings of unimpressive baseball in his major league career, but at least they have Jason Hammel.
While Longoria has been a stud in the Rays lineup, Linceum has been arguably the best starting pitching in the National League, if not the entire major leagues for the past year and a half. The 2008 NL Cy Young Winner went 18-5 with a 2.62 ERA/2.62 FIP last season. The matching FIP/ERA just goes to show the "freak" is no fluke. In 2009, Lincecum has been even better. After last night's start he is 10-2 with a 2.33 ERA. His 1.99 FIP suggest that he has been even BETTER than his ERA. Lincecum is striking out 10.50 batters per nine while walking under two and a half. He has allowed just four home runs in 127.2 innings and has struck out at least eight batters in his last six starts.
It's hard to say the Rays made a bad choice with Longoria, but Lincecum has racked up a WAR of 16.1 over his career while Longoria has just crossed the 9.0 WAR threshold. Hindsight is 20-20 and remember, there is no guarantee that Lincecum would be as good as he is had he been pitching in the neutral Tropicana Field and facing better competition in the AL East.
We could play the "what if" game all we want, but the Rays got themselves a perennial AL MVP candidate at a position where there isn't much talent in the majors. Sure there are some fine third basemen in the game, but how many better than Longoria, if any? While it would be insane to have a rotation of James Shields, Matt Garza, Scott Kazmir, David Price and Tim Lincecum, the Rays still remain one of the more pitching rich organizations in the league without Timmy. In a perfect world, I would love the Rays to have both Longoria and Lincecum, but I'm still plenty happy with the way things turned out.
2006 MLB First Round WAR
| Hochevar | 2 |
| Reynolds | -0.5 |
| Longoria | 9 |
| Lincoln | N/A |
| Marrow | 1 |
| Miller | 2.8 |
| Kershaw | 3.3 |
| Stubbs | N/A |
| Rowell | N/A |
| Lincecum | 16.1 |
| Scherzer | 3.3 |
| Kiker | N/A |
| Colvin | N/A |
| Snider | 0.1 |
| Marrero | N/A |
| Jeffress | N/A |
| Antonelli | -0.4 |
| Drabek | N/A |
| Sinkbeil | N/A |
| Parmelee | N/A |
| Kennedy | 0.5 |
| Willems | N/A |
| Sapp | N/A |
| Johnson | N/A |
| Conger | N/A |
| Morris | N/A |
| Place | N/A |
| Bard | 0.4 |
| McCulloch | N/A |
| Ottavino | N/A |
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Hard to really disagree with either choice
although I forgot Lincecum fell after us. This could be a decision to look at every few years, just to compare.
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There really wasn't a wrong choice between the two.
Longoria is arguably the best player at his position as is Lincecum.
www.draysbay.com
by Tommy Rancel on Jul 10, 2009 2:29 PM EDT up reply actions
Is there way to find the average career span
of a Right handed 3B vs a Left handed starting pitcher? It might not have any relevance, but wonder what the typical career arc is and what their (Longo and Lincecum) arcs will be
www.bucem.com - SBNation's source for all things Buccaneer
Whoops
didn’t even bother to look, thought he was lefty. Well then sub right handed SP for left handed SP to my above post
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Linc's mechanics still make me question him long term. I think the position player is the safer bet
Type Strong
Let's work together to combat Terminal Rocco Disease.
by Top Gun Numba 1 on Jul 10, 2009 3:18 PM EDT up reply actions
I'd agree with that.
just wondering what the career span’s are. I gotta think if you find a #1 starter, you take them, but I wonder if our pitching depth figured into it at all.
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so take your zero and suck it.
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You'd rather have Lincecum
but you can’t complain about having Longoria there either.
Not me.
Longoria’s the safe bet to collect more WAR from here on out. Throw in the fact that you would never do the deal Longo got for a pitcher, and I’d bet dollars to doughnuts the surplus value the Rays collect from Longo will surpass the surplus value the Giants receive from Lincecum.
Plus WAR is a counting stat and Lincecum got called up first.
So he accumulated 3.2 wins before Longo even got to the show.
Tools Whore
The cheap extension Longoria signed helps a lot
Who knows whether Lincecum would have agreed to such a deal. At the end of the day, we may end up having Longoria for 3 years longer than we would have had Lincecum, and that adds some real value.
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
Hmmm a guy that will win two cy youngs in three years, and will be the most dominate pitcher in the league for the next 15 years or
A really good 3b, who might never complete an entire season without an injury. AKA injury prone.
I can't wait until lincecum has 10 cy youngs in 11 years and you guys will still be discussing if
we made the right choice. While Longo is still just a .300avg 30hr guy.
by putupyourDUKES on Jul 10, 2009 3:30 PM EDT up reply actions
So what you're saying is it's a
50/50 shot as to who’s better.
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Greatest pitcher of the generation vs a very good hitter
Isn’t much of a competition if you understand baseball.
by putupyourDUKES on Jul 10, 2009 3:36 PM EDT up reply actions
Of a generation?
Doesn’t a new one of those come up every year?
SOSH AUCTION to K ALS
by Sandy Kazmir on Jul 10, 2009 3:42 PM EDT up reply actions
I like how coining him the greatest pitcher of his generation after roughly 2.25 years in the majors isn't premature.
I mean, no way a “Five-foot-eleven”, “one-hundred-seventy-five-pound” guy throwing 95MPH breaks down, right? I mean, it never happens.
Your best comparison right now is Pedro Martinez who was the best player while he was in his prime, but when he broke down, he collapsed like a house of cards.
I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.
When I tried to emulate his motion my shoulder tsrated hurting :(
Brad Ziegler had a scoreless inning streak. Brad Ziegler had not met BJ Upton.
R U Retarded?
He’s not going to b dominate for the next 15 years, try 7, if that.
I’d take Longo anyday, though having Timmy wouldn’t be bad
I might be off base here
but the Rays needed some right handed power, they had pitching. Do they get to the ALCS and WS with Lincecum instead of Longo? Do they even come close to contending? I guess you can’t really answer that, but seems a corner IF with right handed power was more of a need. Shields, Garza, Kaz, Price and now Hellickson, Talbot, Davis. Not to say we wouldn’t want Lincecum but I can see the reason for the outcome so far.
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Pitching is much harder to find then hitting.
How many hitters put up numbers comparable to longo? A lot.
How many pitchers put up lincecum’s #’s? none.
by putupyourDUKES on Jul 10, 2009 3:39 PM EDT up reply actions
I would actually respond to this legitimately, but I can't help but think you compulsively troll.
I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.
Just take off your homer hats for 10min and give this discussion some serious thought.
by putupyourDUKES on Jul 10, 2009 3:40 PM EDT up reply actions
Ok. Based on his service time in the majors and how long he's been around, he's Scott Kazmir.
I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.
Scott never came close to what lincecum does
by putupyourDUKES on Jul 10, 2009 3:41 PM EDT up reply actions
That's because Scott played for two of the worst teams ever in back to back years.
I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.
He seems extremely volatile.
He may have a great 4-6 year run, but 9 years of Longo at a great price is what I would prefer.
SOSH AUCTION to K ALS
by Sandy Kazmir on Jul 10, 2009 3:42 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm not debating that fact
I’m saying for the position the Rays were in, you could argue Longo made more sense for their team structure.
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For the draft I agree with longo
No one knew lincecum was this good, and we needed hitting more then pitching.
What I am debating is that in hindsight you cannot compare the two.
by putupyourDUKES on Jul 10, 2009 3:41 PM EDT up reply actions
I read the article
as if it were comparing the decision Friedman and co. had to make between Longo and Lincecum. To date, as Tommy pointed out, the WAR is in Lincy’s favor. But to me, Longo’s value to the Rays has been more so thatn Lincecum’s based on positional need
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Right,
but why did we sign PtB? Right handed power bat (more or less). Wouldn’t that need be even greater minus Longo? You can always use great starting pitching, but the structure of the team seemed to demand what Longo had or was projected to have.
We also fared well without Price last year, doesn’t mean we didn’t/don’t need him.
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if we weren't so concerned with how we hit against lefties maybe we could have gotten Ibanez
I’m still holding judgement on Burrell though. He is capable of having a huge hot stretch that will even his numbers out in the long run.
I didn't mean to jump into a PtB discussion
was just pointing out if PtB was supposed to help fill the right handed power spot, how much bigger would that need have been minus Longo?
www.bucem.com - SBNation's source for all things Buccaneer
Ibanez signed right away for the Phillies at an exuberent price. We weren't going anywhere near him.
I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.
You realize Ibanez was a Type-A free agent, right?
by R.J. Anderson on Jul 10, 2009 3:53 PM EDT up reply actions
I didn't I thought I heard our names being listed around him last year
I guess that was just optimistic memory.
You never know. Look at the first eight players
in the Townsend draft. Only one sticks out
I don't blame the rays for the townsend draft
He blew his arm out, you can’t really predict that, unless it’s a historical thing.
by putupyourDUKES on Jul 10, 2009 3:34 PM EDT up reply actions
I DO
Wade Fuckin’ Townsend? except for Hell Boy, that was a god-awful draft for us.
He was busted when we drafted him.
There were reports that he’d go as high as 3rd overall as a signability pick, then he threw for teams. His curve ball wasn’t there at all and he topped out at 87 and everyone backed off.
Tools Whore
So was Brazelton.
The BA writers said his knees were shot and the Rays knew it before we even drafted him. And yet, we drafted him and somehow were surprised when his conditioning was consistently awful and velocity fell off.
I've never heard that before.
Damn hurricanes keeping us from Mauer/Prior.
Tools Whore
That was from an email exchange
with John Manuel a few years ago, some time after the Rays gave up on him.
Apparently they didn’t subscribe to the Sickels Theory that the problems started with the mechanical changes and rapid promotions which prevented him from developing a decent third pitch, harmed confidence and wrecked his fastball. At any rate, we never saw the 94-97 mph fastball with movement Sickels raved about and it still bugs me.
I don't think he ever threw 97, even in college
His thing was that he was supposed to have a plus-plus change that was a true out pitch, and he could ratchet it up to 95. Never saw those either really.
But I subscribed to the Sickels theory long before Sickels ever enunciated it. In fact, I talked about it enough on his website, I wouldn’t be shocked if I planted the idea in his head, at least subconsciously.
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
Yes, with him, you could predict it
Coach Graham eats elbows for breakfast.
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
Despite Lincecum's success I'd still rather Longoria
I know recent drafts may be different if we didn’t have Longoria but given what is in the current system.
Starting pitching depth past (Shields, Kaz, Garza, Price)
Niemann, Sonny, Davis, Talbot, Hellickson, Moore, Barnese, Lobstein
3B Depth past Longoria
Aybar, Elliot Johnson, Nowak
Having the best 3B in the league for the next 8 years compared to other in house options > The best pitcher in the league for the next 8 years
You don't really "get" baseball do you?
by putupyourDUKES on Jul 10, 2009 3:37 PM EDT up reply actions
Hitter's comparable to longo are not that rare
Pitcher’s like lincecum come around ever 20 years or so.
by putupyourDUKES on Jul 10, 2009 3:39 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't care what position they play.
by putupyourDUKES on Jul 10, 2009 3:42 PM EDT up reply actions
Wouldn't be fantastic to see BJ Upton back in the infield?
I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.
Or an arguably more direct analogy, Albert Pujols should play center.
I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.
Or u don't care about DBullsfan's point.
Longo is a damn good 3B who WILL win multiple MVPs and GG’s. THOSE don’t come around very often.
so I guess Joe Mauer's come around everyday too because of numbers
not that he is doing it behind the plate.
Fuck that. Put him on the mound and make everyone happy.
I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.
I like how he's the only positional reliever to make more then one appearance this season.
Even moreso that after his first appearance, he had the worst statistics amongst those who have done so.
I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.
I know you are attempting to be sarcastic
However anyone that looks at the data without Rays glasses on would bet their first born on Lincecum not being a better pitcher on the Rays than he is on San Fran. Perhaps Hickey may not have made him worse, but there is virtually 0% chance he would have made him better. Lincecum being worse on the Rays has a chance far greater than 0%.
I do understand that many of you guys are homers here and attempt internet sarcasm
However homerism shouldn’t take away your ability to follow the mission statement of this blog.
If Hickey doesn’t have an impact on pitchers or pitching coaches do not have an impact in general then please show me the numbers that show that. If you can’t than you are just speaking purely out of your Rays colored ass.
I'd make a lot of money if my ass was wedding white with columbia-blue piping and I shit out yellow sunbusts.
I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.
Show me the numbers of a good pitching coach with consistent improvement
Brad Ziegler had a scoreless inning streak. Brad Ziegler had not met BJ Upton.
For about a decade Leo Mazzone consistently improved pitchers
At least based on ERA+ and RAA3. But it was about 4 years ago when I ran those numbers, and they weren’t fielding independent, so who knows how it would come out now.
IIRC, the other pitching coach who showed a significant positive impact was Mel Stottlemyre.
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
Sorry I hurt your feelings. I wasn't mocking you or your Hickey data.
I’m just not on the “Fire Hickey” bandwagon based on interesting but limited information.
I do take to heart being called a homer. That hurts, matthan, and really adds nothing to your mission.
Now I must put on my # 48 Rays jersey and head out the door.
Why is this a debate?
Longoria’s contract and predictability >>> Lincecum’s potentially superior peak years.
Plus Evan had like ~8 WAR in his first 650 career PAs.
Who's to say Lincecum wouldn't have signed that contract with us?
That isn’t a good argument. Talent vs talent Lincecum is better.
by putupyourDUKES on Jul 10, 2009 6:38 PM EDT up reply actions
haha you made a silly
Brad Ziegler had a scoreless inning streak. Brad Ziegler had not met BJ Upton.
Everything.
He can’t hit, no power, won’t walk, is lazy, fat, can’t field, and has an awful contract.
by R.J. Anderson on Jul 10, 2009 3:59 PM EDT up reply actions
Thought you'd like that
Now he has your two favorite players with Willy there (AL triples leader btw)
Oh my god, you weren't joking.
And they gave up their best (only) pitching prospect above A ball to get him.
If you pro-rate performances so far...
Per 180 IP Lincecum is at 5.8 WAR
Per 600 PA Longoria is at 6.3 WAR
They’re probably equal talents with equal ceilings.
The fact that Longoria’s a position player makes the decision obvious for me. Add in the fact that he’s already signed to a sweet contract (the best commodity in baseball by a lot) and the question of which one you’d want going forward is a no-brainer.
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Would it be that far off to say that there is literally nobody that you would trade Longo for straight up?
When you consider his contract, both dollars and length along with the payroll constraints the Rays have?
I mean, I trade him for Pujols when you just consider talent but with all the other factors, you don’t make that trade, right?
Or am I wrong?
Jeter Sucks.
by PriceMultiCyYoungs on Jul 10, 2009 4:44 PM EDT up reply actions
Longoria is a potentially rarer player than Lincecum
How many Third basemen come along of that talent vs starting pitchers of that talent? There are fewer guys in the HOF for 3rd base than any other position so guy at the rarer position is the better choice, especially long term(Longoria has had 2 injuries that have basically eradicated a huge chunk of games)
I dunno, Lincecum is a pretty rare talent.
You could make a case for Scott Rolen and Eric Chavez as being pretty recent 3B of this caliber… which makes Longo’s injury concerns a little more worrisome.
Scott Rolen's age 22 season (ROY): 283/377/469, 21 HR/35 2B
Evan Longoria’s age 22 season (ROY): 272/343/531, 27 HR/31 2B
Scott Rolen’s age 23 season (MVP, GG): 290/391/532, 31 HR/45 2B
Evan Longoria’s age 23 season to date: 287/364/533, 16 HR/26 2B
Eric Chavez is on point too.
Because he signed a really good looking deal.
by R.J. Anderson on Jul 10, 2009 4:19 PM EDT up reply actions
Chavez is a very scary comp.
Because Chavy had all the same qualities as Longo – great power, great defense, good but occasionally iffy plate discipline (Chavy loved striking out against high fastballs, Evan loves striking out against low breaking balls), MVP caliber years at a young age, great contract, small market team.
Chavez didn't start falling apart though until he was 27-28..
If Evan suffers the same kind of injury woes, but gives us similar production until he hits 28 or so, I’m gonna be pretty happy.
And for fun, Eric Chavez...
Chavez age 22 season (his second year in the bigs): 277/355/495, 26 HR/23 2B
Chavez age 23 season (GG): 288/338/540, 32 HR/43 2B
It'd be great if he was Scott Rolen
Scott Rolen’s first eight seasons (from 1997-2004 without the 1996 partial):
Avg: 143 Games 96/28/102 .287/.379/.524
Rolen was on a Hall of Fame pace until he turned 30.
Oh, I agree completely.
And as I said above, I wouldn’t mind if Longoria was Chavez – we can buy out his contract, and it’d end by the time he’s starting to fall apart anyway.
Just saying that 3B with great gloves and power aren’t entirely unique – Timmy Linc is pretty unique just because, if you believe in his mechanics, he’s going to have a rubber arm despite throwing 97.
I attempted to prove this wrong...
But a quick tour of B-R proves he’s pretty damn unique. I guess Pedro and Clemens could be comps.
As crazy as it sounds, Pedro is likely the best comparison.
But, if you do believe in Timmy’s mechanics, then he’s not going to have that Pedro-type breakdown in his early thirties – and maybe have Clemens’ longevity, albeit without the steroid help.
I'm more confident that Lincecum will be a HOFer than Longo
Mainly for two reasons:
1. Longo seems a bit injuried prone
2. Longevity is more of a requirement for a position player than a pitcher
They both have the potential to be the best player at their position. They both arguably already are.
Of course I wouldn’t base my pick of who I’d rather have by who is more likely to be in the HOF.
I'm fine either way.
In a vacuum, I’d rather Lincecum, but considering the other options available at the positions, it favors Longoria more. Consider the contract, and it swings things to Longoria. Consider that if we had Lincecum, we probably would have drafted Weiters instead the next year, and it swings a bit back to Lincecum (I’d rather have Lincecum/Weiters than Longoria/Price, without a doubt).
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
I'd rather have Cain.
King of the bling come to lay down the evidence//Not George Bush, L-Millz be da president
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