It sure is nice to watch a great start. Niemann was brilliant last night and is really showcasing himself as the sponge that can go out and soak up some innings. I wanted to present the update Est. Wins for another reason, though. James Shields is a FREAKING STUD. He has thrown a sub-3.00 FIP in NINE of his eighteen starts. According to these numbers, that means in half of his stats he has given us, AT THE MINIMUM, an 83% chance to walk out with a win. SCORE THIS MAN SOME GD RUNS! Garza has also pitched really well, being roughly a win behind Shields.
Pitcher |
FIP |
PROBw |
Starts
|
Est. Wins
|
Shields |
3.87 |
62.6% |
18 |
11.26 |
Garza |
4.42 |
60.5% |
17 |
10.29 |
Niemann |
4.62 |
47.7% |
16 |
7.63 |
Sonnanstine |
5.63 |
46.3% |
15 |
6.95 |
Kazmir |
5.59 |
46.4% |
12 |
5.56 |
Price |
6.68 |
39.6% |
9 |
3.56 |
Team |
4.95 |
52.0% |
87 |
45.26 |
|
|
|
|
If you want to see progress, check this out,
Through 76 games
Pitcher |
FIP |
PROBw |
Starts
|
Est. Wins
|
Shields |
3.79 |
64.4% |
16 |
10.30 |
Garza |
4.67 |
51.1% |
15 |
7.67 |
Sonnanstine |
5.63 |
46.1% |
15 |
6.92 |
Niemann |
4.81 |
44.4% |
14 |
6.21 |
Kazmir |
5.93 |
43.4% |
10 |
4.34 |
Price |
5.82 |
34.0% |
6 |
2.04 |
Team |
4.96 |
49.3% |
76 |
37.49 |
|
|
|
|
Through 80 games
Pitcher |
FIP |
PROBw |
Starts
|
Est. Wins
|
Shields |
3.96 |
61.5% |
17 |
10.46 |
Garza |
4.60 |
52.5% |
16 |
8.40 |
Sonnanstine |
5.63 |
46.3% |
15 |
6.95 |
Niemann |
4.74 |
46.2% |
15 |
6.93 |
Kazmir |
5.93 |
43.4% |
10 |
4.34 |
Price |
5.59 |
37.3% |
7 |
2.61 |
Team |
4.94 |
49.6% |
80 |
39.69 |
|
|
|
|
Through 83 games
Pitcher |
FIP |
PROBw |
Starts
|
Est. Wins
|
Shields |
3.96 |
61.5% |
17 |
10.46 |
Garza |
4.42 |
56.1% |
17 |
9.53 |
Sonnanstine |
5.63 |
46.3% |
15 |
6.95 |
Niemann |
4.74 |
46.2% |
15 |
6.93 |
Kazmir |
5.75 |
44.6% |
11 |
4.90 |
Price |
7.36 |
33.4% |
8 |
2.67 |
Team |
5.06 |
49.9% |
83 |
41.45 |
|
|
|
|
The Team PROBw increasing is what I like to see.
I also put this stuff together this morning while messing around on FanGraphs, take from it what you will: