Estimated Wins updated through last night

by Sandy Kazmir on Jul 11, 2009 11:39 AM EDT

It sure is nice to watch a great start. Niemann was brilliant last night and is really showcasing himself as the sponge that can go out and soak up some innings. I wanted to present the update Est. Wins for another reason, though. James Shields is a FREAKING STUD. He has thrown a sub-3.00 FIP in NINE of his eighteen starts. According to these numbers, that means in half of his stats he has given us, AT THE MINIMUM, an 83% chance to walk out with a win. SCORE THIS MAN SOME GD RUNS! Garza has also pitched really well, being roughly a win behind Shields.

Pitcher	FIP	PROBw	Starts	Est. Wins
Shields	3.87	62.6%	18	11.26
Garza	4.42	60.5%	17	10.29
Niemann	4.62	47.7%	16	7.63
Sonnanstine	5.63	46.3%	15	6.95
Kazmir	5.59	46.4%	12	5.56
Price	6.68	39.6%	9	3.56
Team	4.95	52.0%	87	45.26

If you want to see progress, check this out,

Through 76 games

Pitcher	FIP	PROBw	Starts	Est. Wins
Shields	3.79	64.4%	16	10.30
Garza	4.67	51.1%	15	7.67
Sonnanstine	5.63	46.1%	15	6.92
Niemann	4.81	44.4%	14	6.21
Kazmir	5.93	43.4%	10	4.34
Price	5.82	34.0%	6	2.04
Team	4.96	49.3%	76	37.49

Through 80 games

Pitcher	FIP	PROBw	Starts	Est. Wins
Shields	3.96	61.5%	17	10.46
Garza	4.60	52.5%	16	8.40
Sonnanstine	5.63	46.3%	15	6.95
Niemann	4.74	46.2%	15	6.93
Kazmir	5.93	43.4%	10	4.34
Price	5.59	37.3%	7	2.61
Team	4.94	49.6%	80	39.69

Through 83 games

Pitcher	FIP	PROBw	Starts	Est. Wins
Shields	3.96	61.5%	17	10.46
Garza	4.42	56.1%	17	9.53
Sonnanstine	5.63	46.3%	15	6.95
Niemann	4.74	46.2%	15	6.93
Kazmir	5.75	44.6%	11	4.90
Price	7.36	33.4%	8	2.67
Team	5.06	49.9%	83	41.45

The Team PROBw increasing is what I like to see.

I also put this stuff together this morning while messing around on FanGraphs, take from it what you will:

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Comments

Uh...Joe Nelson is in that picture

Swav or Die
For the lulz

by SRQman on Jul 11, 2009 11:59 AM EDT reply actions

2nd worst qualifying relief pitcher based on advanced fangraphs

by Raymondo on Jul 11, 2009 12:05 PM EDT up reply actions

They all look the same to me

Throw out his horrible May and he isn’t so bad

SOSH AUCTION to K ALS

by Sandy Kazmir on Jul 11, 2009 12:08 PM EDT up reply actions

Throw out a month in the market and i'm a millionaire

by Raymondo on Jul 11, 2009 12:15 PM EDT up reply actions

so thats why you never go to games.

So long, Sweet Lime!

by PlayOnWords on Jul 11, 2009 12:16 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah but baseball isn't played on Wall Street

SOSH AUCTION to K ALS

by Sandy Kazmir on Jul 11, 2009 12:20 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah it's on calculators

Swav or Die
For the lulz

by SRQman on Jul 11, 2009 12:28 PM EDT up reply actions

Abacii

SOSH AUCTION to K ALS

by Sandy Kazmir on Jul 11, 2009 12:37 PM EDT up reply actions

James Shields brings the strike zone to its knees.

So long, Sweet Lime!

by PlayOnWords on Jul 11, 2009 12:04 PM EDT reply actions

I just got the idea to use this to take a look at historical figures

The problem is that it is rather time-consuming to do it on a broad scale. My Excel skills are mint, but my programming ones are less so. Does anyone have a clue how to automate some of this so that I could just dump the data into the template and the program will set up all the links? Is this even possible? I’d really like to compare guys across era’s because this takes into account your teams run support. Or hypothetical situations like how many wins would Bob Gibson have with our offense, or was Nolan Ryan truly a .500 pitcher. The applications are endless I just don’t want to devote 60 hours a week to something.

SOSH AUCTION to K ALS

by Sandy Kazmir on Jul 11, 2009 12:11 PM EDT reply actions

by Sandy Kazmir on Jul 11, 2009 12:26 PM EDT up reply actions

Well here's what Bob Gibson's 1968 (Arguably the greatest season ever) would look like if he had our offense behind him

Gibson
FIP…PROBw…Starts…Est. Wins
2.49…81%……..34……….27.63

This is less exact because I had to fit his actual game FIP between intervals. He actually went 22-9. So what I’m saying is, lets trade Wheeler and Niemann for Bob Gibson

SOSH AUCTION to K ALS

by Sandy Kazmir on Jul 11, 2009 12:25 PM EDT up reply actions