J.P. Howell is More Qualified Than Most Analysts

by R.J. Anderson on Jul 11, 2009 12:36 PM EDT Comment 30 comments

So, I'm reading this fine piece by Tim Marchman on the closer-by-committee approach, and all of the sudden, he drops this fantastic J.P. Howell quote on me:

One wouldn't want to make the Rays out to be more unconventional than they are, however. Ace lefty J.P. Howell is getting most of the chances, and rightly so -- one of the real marvels of baseball, he has run up a 2.01 ERA since the beginning of last year and struck out 139 in 129.2 innings while serving straight slop, including a fastball that may touch 90 on days when he's feeling really good. Still, the team has yet to name him their capital-C closer, something he explains as well as anyone might. "I think just naming a closer would limit our bullpen," he recently told MLB.com.

Emphasis mine.

That's the player saying that. The player who would make a lot more money just by having the label and meaningless stat following him around. He said that. Just a few weeks ago we had to endure the FOX 'analysts' bashing on 'sabermetrics' for not having a closer. As it turns out, even the player with the most to gain gets it. Good Betsy, J.P. Howell is awesome.

Also, Tim Marchman really does know his stuff:

Dale Thayer, whose greatest virtue may be his fabulous moustache

This is true.

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Where does he write?

This seems particularly astute.

SOSH AUCTION to K ALS

by Sandy Kazmir on Jul 11, 2009 12:39 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Wall Street Journal.

by R.J. Anderson on Jul 11, 2009 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Used to write at the NY Sun before it folded.

Also:
http://www.tmarchman.com/

by R.J. Anderson on Jul 11, 2009 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks

I like to read guys/gals that can combine the theory behind the game, with hard statistics, and can do it while telling an interesting story. Not many can put all those elements together. Posnanski and Crasnick are two I like, but perhaps Marchman can join the gang.

SOSH AUCTION to K ALS

by Sandy Kazmir on Jul 11, 2009 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He is wonderful.

by R.J. Anderson on Jul 11, 2009 12:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Crasnick is underrated

and anyone who appreciates both JP Howell and Thayer’s ’stache has my undivided attention.

by RATW on Jul 11, 2009 2:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I like that Crasnick is always throwing out names that aren't mainstream

I imagine him as a guy that picks up change off the floor because he knows that for every 5 pennies he finds it’s as good as a nickel. He does his research well and drops names like FanGraphs at least once an article. Plus, one of my requirements was that it can’t be dry. He is more so than Posnanski, but still tells a great story that you feel like you are learning something without learning. That is the effect of any great teacher.

SOSH AUCTION to K ALS

by Sandy Kazmir on Jul 11, 2009 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Wow this guy is refreshing.

As the story goes, a team that declines to slot its pitchers into rigid roles is supposed to suffer all sorts of problems, as anguished relievers find themselves unable to prepare and mentally broken by the idea of pitching with the game on the line. The Rays, though, like the Braves, aren’t suffering at all. According to WPA/LI, one advanced measure, theirs may even be the best ’pen in the game.

SOSH AUCTION to K ALS

by Sandy Kazmir on Jul 11, 2009 12:41 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I love that photo.

Into the Wall : Sarcasm for the Soccer Guy

by ReasonableDoubt on Jul 11, 2009 12:42 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

We have to keep JP, right?

Even ignoring the awesomeness of his personality, it’s not like his stuff is going to suffer some kind of rapid decline. Has even suffered an arm injury since he was in high school? He’s been the best reliever in baseball over the last few years, and I don’t see why that won’t continue. He can pitch multiple innings, has a rubber arm, strike guys out, great control, two plus breaking pitches, AND he’d probably take a slightly below market deal.

by Suttree on Jul 11, 2009 12:45 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I know.

I’m usually against long-term deals for relievers (Balfour, for instance) but J.P. is nearing elite status.

by R.J. Anderson on Jul 11, 2009 12:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

His stuff is so complimentary

That’s the top down view. My freaking Gawd how do you know what’s coming, I love how he has almost a double helix going

Here’s the side view

I just picked a random game this is 5/6/09 against the Yanks

SOSH AUCTION to K ALS

by Sandy Kazmir on Jul 11, 2009 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I disagree about the deal part.

I think when it’s time, he’s going to be looking to get paid, and most teams are going to want to pay him somewhere between a bit less then closer money to closer money. The Rays aren’t going to be able to get away with giving him a deal like Dan Wheeler, they’re going to have to muscle up to keep him.

That being said, he looks invincible. I don’t know how you can’t roll up a truck for him.

I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.

by kericr on Jul 11, 2009 1:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'd pay him every penny.

Truly elite, consistent relievers are difficult to come by. If he’s our Rivera, he’s worth keeping.

by Suttree on Jul 11, 2009 1:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Last year he was Jeremy Affeldt and he just got 2/8

This year he is more like Rafi Soriano, who just got boosted to 6M and will be a FA after the year. BTW how good is this deal in retrospect.

Matt Thornton lhp
3 years/$3.25M (2007-09), plus 2010-11 club options

    * 3 years/$3.25M (2007-09), plus 2010-11 club options
          o signed extension with White Sox 4/07, replacing 1 year/$0.425M deal signed 2/07
          o 07:$0.55M, 08:$0.875M, 09:$1.325M, 10:$2.25M club option ($0.25M buyout), 11:$3M club option ($0.25M buyout)
    * 1 year/$0.355M (2006)
          o acquired by White Sox in trade from Seattle 3/06
    * 1 year/$0.323M (2005) (Seattle)
    * drafted by Seattle 1998 (1-22) (Grand Valley State)
    * ML service: 4.129

SOSH AUCTION to K ALS

by Sandy Kazmir on Jul 11, 2009 1:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

That's a pretty good buy-low bargin.

If the Rays are so inclined to sign Howell to a deal during the offseason, what would you pay, and for how long?

I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.

by kericr on Jul 11, 2009 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

It's a good question

As little as possible, but that is unrealistic. He’s making $433,667 this year in his final year of cost control. If you subscribe to the theory of taking FA value times .4 for Arb1, .6 for Arb2, and .8 for Arb3 then you are at 3/8.1. I think that would be a fair deal, but why buy out Arb just to lose him once he’s a FA anyway (see Shields deal) so I think something more like:

Year 1: 1.8
Year 2: 2.7
Year 3: 3.6
Year 4: 5
Option Year 5: 6.5, buyout around 800k

I think this would be incredibly fair and something that you would be getting value across the board. J.P. gets financial security in the event that he stops getting people out or gets injured. So with that model you’re looking at either 4/13.1 or 5/19.6. For a team that seems astute at finding relief gems from year to year this may seem like too much. To this I say scroll up and look at that top-down view and look at his FB/CU/CH movement, to me, that spells death on lefties and righties alike. Lastly, a 5/20 deal is a per year what Affeldt is getting this year to set up. With inflation this would be quite the bargain assuming he maintains this high level. I say go for it.

SOSH AUCTION to K ALS

by Sandy Kazmir on Jul 11, 2009 2:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

After thinking about this a little more I would lower the buyout to sub-500k

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by Sandy Kazmir on Jul 11, 2009 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Good stuff. I wasn't thinking in that kind of detail.

I had something more in mind of a ballpark figure, and I was eye-ing something that averaged 4.5-5m over 5 years (so 22.5-25) to get those first two free agency years. Interesting breakdown though.

I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.

by kericr on Jul 11, 2009 5:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

O/U Howell 3.0 WAR by the end of the season?

He currently sits at 1.4. I’ll take the under but if it was 2.9 I probably wouldn’t do it, but I would pause.

SOSH AUCTION to K ALS

by Sandy Kazmir on Jul 11, 2009 12:56 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I had the same reaction to Howell's comments.

I wonder if his agent is having a fit.

In the real world of negotiations it may not mean much, but it is refreshing to read.

by bobr on Jul 11, 2009 1:01 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Here's a Marchman line from another story

Right field: Jeff Francoeur, Atlanta: Apologies to Justin Upton, but when baseball no longer has a place for the likes of Francoeur, a player so extravagantly talented that he can hold down a major league job despite seemingly having little more idea of what to do with that talent than a tomcat, baseball will no longer be worth watching.

He was picking All-Stars based on who he would prefer to see in the game.

SOSH AUCTION to K ALS

by Sandy Kazmir on Jul 11, 2009 1:21 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Here's another great one

Anyone disappointed by the performances that these two have turned in is surely disappointed that their shrewd decision to send vital bank information to an Azerbaijani diplomat trapped in Paraguay and soliciting help via e-mail has yet to pay dividends. Free agency is not an alchemical act that turns dross to gold.

Referring to the FA signings of Kerry Wood and Oliver Perez

SOSH AUCTION to K ALS

by Sandy Kazmir on Jul 11, 2009 2:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

JP Howell is awesome. we won that trade. incidentally, was dayton moore GM of the royals back then? i forget.

by yeseggs on Jul 11, 2009 3:19 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Yes.

One of his first moves as GM, I believe.

I’d say Friedman should call him daily, but with Dan Cortes traded there really isn’t much of anything left to steal from the upper minors.

Speaking of Cortes, I’d bet worst case he ends up a plus reliever in the majors, as long as he isn’t hurt (K’s and BB’s are moving the wrong way this year). I’m “lucky” enough to be just a couple miles up the road from the Royals’ AA team and have seen Cortes pitch often over the last two seasons. He throws a filthy curve and a good low-90’s fastball but his control will just disappear sometimes. When he misses, it’s often unhittable as it is nowhere near the zone, so even when he’s off, he rarely gets hit hard.

My guess as a less than part-time follower of the Royals – they traded him mostly because of “makeup” issues. I’ve seen him blow up in the dugout more than once after a difficult outing; then he was arrested a week ago for public drunkenness – he pissed on a fence outside the college bars near the Univ. of Arkansas. Not a compelling reason to dump one of your rare advanced prospects (I’ve probably pissed on my share of fences in the same area – if only I could remember), but it’s not easy to grasp Royals logic and the timing is peculiar.

Why they would take Betancourt is anyone’s guess.

by RATW on Jul 11, 2009 4:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs