ZiPS Forecasts Regression for the Rays Rotation

by R.J. Anderson on Jul 14, 2009 1:04 PM EDT

	FIP	RoS FIP
Shields	3.71	3.56
Kazmir	5.45	3.87
Garza	4.28	4.03
Price	5.18	4.43
Niemann	4.47	4.85

James Shields is one of the best pitchers in the AL. Over the last three calendar years, only nine American League starters have better FIP than Shields: Roy Halladay, CC Sabathia, Josh Beckett, Felix Hernandez, Cliff Lee, John Lackey, Javier Vazquez, Justin Verlander, and A.J. Burnett. Good company, right? Consistency in the light of change is impressive. Shields has altered his pitch distribution while still putting up similar numbers. He's just about everything you could ever want in a starting pitcher.

ZiPS doesn't know about Scott Kazmir's injury or trip to Rick Peterson. You can probably adjust that projection upwards as you see fit, though his homer and strand rates are likely to bounce back as the season progresses.

Matt Garza had a rough June, ZiPS doesn't care.

We talked about David Price's walk rate regressing due to the amount of strikes he throws, ZiPS agrees he'll walk less, and has him pegged for a conservative 7 K/9.

Niemann, well, you know.

The good news is that the average FIP of those five in the first half was 4.41. The projected second half FIP is 4.08. For reference, the 2008 rotation had a FIP of 4.24.

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Shields

Despite pitching for a team that is seven games above .500, Shields has a 6-6 record even though nearly two-thirds of his starts qualifying as quality starts. The Rays only score 3.3 runs when Shields is in the game – 19th worst in all of baseball. Consider the fact the Rays offense scores 7.8 runs for Scott Kazmir, 7.6 for Andy Sonnanstine, and 7.0 runs for Jeff Niemann when they are pitching and you can see why Shields has a legitimate beef. It is not as if Shields is always up against an ace pitcher; his latest no-decision came against Brett Anderson.

Dockoftherays.com

by Jason Collette on Jul 14, 2009 1:05 PM EDT reply actions

Consider our closer has one fewer win and we are an above .500 team

Shields record is silly given his quality and the team he plays on.

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by FreeZorilla on Jul 14, 2009 1:12 PM EDT up reply actions

Sorry, our chiller

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by FreeZorilla on Jul 14, 2009 1:13 PM EDT up reply actions

I have him as pitching well enough to win 11.26 games

that would make his record 11-7, not too shabby.

SOSH AUCTION to K ALS

by Sandy Kazmir on Jul 14, 2009 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions

Would he receive losses in all the non-wins, though?

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by Sky Kalkman on Jul 14, 2009 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions

According to this yes, it's more based on theory as far as that angle.

SOSH AUCTION to K ALS

by Sandy Kazmir on Jul 14, 2009 2:36 PM EDT up reply actions

Also, after reworking for his last game he is now at 11.89 in 19 starts

I just put together Bos and they look like:

Pitcher FIP PROBw Starts Est. Wins
Beckett 3.46 71.3% 18 12.83
Lester 3.46 66.4% 18 11.94
Penny 4.49 61.4% 17 10.44
Wakefield 4.11 61.0% 17 10.38
Masterson 3.75 68.0% 6 4.08
Smoltz 2.06 92.6% 4 3.70
Matsuzaka 6.23 38.2% 8 3.06
Team 4.08 64.1% 88 56.43

We look like:

Pitcher FIP PROBw Starts Est. Wins
Shields 3.83 62.6% 19 11.89
Garza 4.37 54.3% 18 9.78
Niemann 4.62 46.8% 16 7.48
Sonnanstine 5.63 45.2% 15 6.78
Kazmir 5.59 45.3% 12 5.44
Price 6.68 39.1% 9 3.52
Team 4.91 50.4% 89 44.88

SOSH AUCTION to K ALS

by Sandy Kazmir on Jul 14, 2009 2:38 PM EDT up reply actions