The Fear and Truth
by R.J. Anderson on Jul 16, 2009 5:00 AM EDT
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PrintBaseball resumes play tonight. At least the National League, not for the Rays or most of the American League. The Rays themselves need that extra day off for travels - it's a long flight from St. Louis to Kansas City - and I suppose a reward for playing 40 games in six weeks. This will be the Rays last day off until July 30th, which is a startling few weeks away.
The ultimate goal is to have the season-ending series mean something. We'll see whether those will be the final three before the playoffs or the three that decide whether the Rays make the playoffs. I cannot stop imagining a scenario where the Rays win 92 games and miss out on the playoffs. I think that might qualify as the baseball playoffs version of purgatory: win 90 games, be the third best team in the American League, but be in the same division as the first and second best teams and well... be safe while enjoying your winter.
Calling for structural changes or divisional realignment would be an easy, and unopposed, way of solving this unique problem. Instead, I think we should embrace it. Undoubtedly the buzzsaw is going to chop us one time over the next half-decade. As everyone knows, I'm more satisfied as an analyst with winning the division than winning the pennant. Luck is less of a factor, smart managing and micromanaging is more of a factor.
I know I'm in the minority and I still wear my World Series t-shirt on a regular basis. I watched game seven again recently and still experienced a bleak feeling of hope after Dustin Pedroia homered and a rush of adrenaline when David Price entered. The fan in me really enjoyed playoff baseball; even the World Series, even with the results.
So when the fan and analyst meet in the middle and say: 90-something wins, no playoffs, I grimace and feel a bit sick. I'm not resigned to finishing in third and outside of the playoffs, I'm certainly not hoping for it, but I've come to the realization that someone in the division is definitely getting duped. This is nothing new, nothing the projection systems and common sense didn't tell us in spring, but the realization just set in.
I'm dreading the season ending because it means another cold winter and could mean an extremely cold playoffs. I'm anticipating these next 73 games perhaps more than any over set of regular season games I've experienced. Even last year, everything seemed to break the right way - well, the Rays way - now we're in a fight on uneven ground and the favored result is going to sting fiercer than any 100 loss season or stupid trade has before.
We're about to experience something supreme in feeling to last season. Whether that's good or bad, let's find out.
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if we miss out on the playoffs,
especially if by a handful or so of games, we can look back at the shitty series against oakland and cleveland first. those are games you ABSOLUTELY MUST WIN if you want to make the playoffs, and we didn’t get it done.
True
and the Red Sox “awesome” bullpen would never blow a 10-1 lead to a last place team with 9 outs to go.
What
do you mean it hardly matters? It may seem like it hardly matters now, but the lead the Red Sox have is not very large, and this is one hell of a tough division. Trust me, as a Sox fan the Rays and Yankees worry me plenty. If the Sox don’t make the playoffs, I am sure I can look back at lots of things, like how we “lost” a 2-1 game to the Marlins that was called in the 6th inning due to rain, or the aforementioned meltdown against the Os, or a similar meltdown against the Royals. I am sure Yankee fans have the same kind of lists. All teams do. You get the point-tough division, top three teams basically equal, and stuff can still go any which way over the next 80 games.
understood. but the fact remains that the sox lead the yankees by 3, and the rays by 6.5.
my point is that it’s easier to put those “shoulda coulda woulda” games behind you when you’re ahead in the division. yes, a whole half season remains to be played. but if you’re the rays, and you’re looking to catch up, the winnable games which you end up losing usually come back to bite you.
Only the fans remember that stuff
If we finish the wild card a game out I don’t think Beej is going to say, “Oh man if only we had beaten the A’s.”
SOSH AUCTION to K ALS
by Sandy Kazmir on Jul 16, 2009 12:55 PM EDT up reply actions
brilliant. except the yankees are already ahead of us in the standings, and have been on an absolute tear.
it’s easy to dismiss “let down series” against the “Natinals” if you’re already 12 (?) or so games over .500.
Our season starts tomorrow
No more excuses, expectations or ’we’ll get em tomorrow’
Wait so our season starts tomorrow, but we won't get them tomorrow?
SOSH AUCTION to K ALS
by Sandy Kazmir on Jul 16, 2009 10:15 AM EDT up reply actions
meaning after we lose as an excuse
i’d like to see some 2nd half community projections, or at least a 1st half re-cap of what was predicted
I have to do actual work today, but that's a great idea
If I get some time today I will see what I can do.
SOSH AUCTION to K ALS
by Sandy Kazmir on Jul 16, 2009 10:29 AM EDT up reply actions
I got a new territory
That’s probably why you haven’t seen me on the job lately.
SOSH AUCTION to K ALS
by Sandy Kazmir on Jul 16, 2009 10:48 AM EDT up reply actions
Good stuff, RJ.
I’ll be particularly sad if we win 93 games and miss out on the playoffs, but at the same time, I really treasure this competitiveness, this team, and organization.
The nagativety surrounding the first half is pretty comical...
This is a competitive team, they’ve just been on the other end of bad luck quite often.
Some of it is self-inflicted, as opposed to just plain bad bounces.
Though we’ve certainly had our fair share of those.
Well that happens...
The Rays were very lucky last year with performance, injury, and outcomes. That stuff tends to even out over a couple years.
Im pumped that were even talking about a pennant race
Obviously my expectations going into the season and even right now are to make the playoffs, if not win the division. But that being said, we get to watch a very competitive, young team with likeable players participate in one of the most exciting things in sports: a September pennant race. And after watching ten years of suck ass baseball, I for one cannot wait.
by BJ the Bossman on Jul 16, 2009 10:39 AM EDT reply actions
I dunno about the best milkshake in the world
but this is one good fuckin milkshake
by BJ the Bossman on Jul 16, 2009 10:42 AM EDT up reply actions
All in all we are just slightly behind what people had hoped for pre-season
The biggest problem has been better than expected success for NYY and Bos. Let’s see if it will shake itself out in the second half.
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
Boston doesn't shock me.
New York kind of does – Damon and Jeter are having very good years. It’s surprising that they’ve managed to stay this productive well into their 30s.
The sound effects are a lot better, though
SOSH AUCTION to K ALS
by Sandy Kazmir on Jul 16, 2009 10:56 AM EDT up reply actions
I like it for the most part, but the sirens going off every 10 seconds and other loud "future" noises really got under my
skin. I watched City of Ember yesterday and that is kind of similar as far as people living in an isolated situation and can only believe what they are told.
SOSH AUCTION to K ALS
by Sandy Kazmir on Jul 16, 2009 10:59 AM EDT up reply actions
I'm surprised Damon
has that many homers.
Come ON Pat the Bust, Navi can not have more homers than you
Is it a jet stream, because I thought that it was more structural in nature?
Like the wall being 2 feet shorter (vertically) and the wall going straight across the alley instead of bowing out.
SOSH AUCTION to K ALS
by Sandy Kazmir on Jul 16, 2009 11:02 AM EDT up reply actions
2008 (with range rings)
2009 (it won’t show the range rings, conspiracy?)
SOSH AUCTION to K ALS
by Sandy Kazmir on Jul 16, 2009 11:06 AM EDT up reply actions
He's probably playing a bit over his head..
The problem is a lot of guys are just having good seasons. Melky is back to respectability after a terrible 2008 season, Damon’s been hot, Tex is Tex, and Jeter’s having a productive season.
They had a down year in 2008 and this year seems to be a bounce back.
Good weather for the KC series
Unlike the last month or so, the temperatures are supposed to top out at only 80-85 degrees; cold by July standards. Much rather start a 10-game road trip like this instead of a draining 100-degree series.
Oh Question for anyone:
How do you measure a pitcher’s luck and fip’s if they were in a neutral park?
Come ON Pat the Bust, Navi can not have more homers than you
95 wins.
I believe it will take 95 wins for the wild card in the AL this year. If that’s true, the Rays have to go 47-26 to finish the season. That’s a .644 winning rate and I just don’t see how they can do that. Since 5/1 they are 38-27 and that’s a long way from .644.
Maybe the Yanks or Sox will fall back a little with an injury or someone just loses his touch, but I wouldn’t bet on the playoffs this year. It just seems like we’ve been waiting for the Rays to get red hot all year and they get close, then lose a few, get hotter, lose a couple. And that’s indicative of a team with a 48-41 record.
Go Rays!
If only we could get 3 extra wins. Who around the league is worth 3 wins... hmmmm...
Type Strong
Let's work together to combat Terminal Rocco Disease.
by Top Gun Numba 1 on Jul 16, 2009 11:29 AM EDT up reply actions
I see this young pitcher in Detroit. Looks like he's worth 3.1 wins. Interesting
Type Strong
Let's work together to combat Terminal Rocco Disease.
by Top Gun Numba 1 on Jul 16, 2009 11:32 AM EDT up reply actions
He's not going to be worth 3 wins in the second half.
Unless you think he throws 240 innings this season.
by R.J. Anderson on Jul 16, 2009 11:34 AM EDT up reply actions
But 95 wins is a full season metric. Imagine if we had him for the whole season. There's the diff between 92 and 95
Trading Edwin Jackson cost us the playoffs.
Type Strong
Let's work together to combat Terminal Rocco Disease.
by Top Gun Numba 1 on Jul 16, 2009 11:35 AM EDT up reply actions
Perhaps we should trade Kazmir for him.
by R.J. Anderson on Jul 16, 2009 11:36 AM EDT up reply actions
Agreed 100%
Type Strong
Let's work together to combat Terminal Rocco Disease.
by Top Gun Numba 1 on Jul 16, 2009 11:37 AM EDT up reply actions
No, Price would be a great Closer
Type Strong
Let's work together to combat Terminal Rocco Disease.
by Top Gun Numba 1 on Jul 16, 2009 11:39 AM EDT up reply actions
And the Braves trading for Tex in '07 may have hurt their playoff odds this year.
Not sure if we can always live in retrospect.
WE CAN AND WILL
Type Strong
Let's work together to combat Terminal Rocco Disease.
by Top Gun Numba 1 on Jul 16, 2009 11:36 AM EDT up reply actions
It'd be great if they're within 2-3 games for that last series.
It would be like playoff baseball at the Trop.
well said
I’m more satisfied as an analyst with winning the division than winning the pennant. Luck is less of a factor, smart managing and micromanaging is more of a factor.
You just knew the usual idiots
would fuck up a perfectly good post with their stupid drivel in the comments. You guys didn’t let me down.
Oh, did some comments ruin your ability to enjoy the post?
Or disrupt you from starting a new subthread to add/comment on something relevant to the post? Gee, that sucks.
Not yours.
Geez, that was sensitive.
I was hoping to get some more insight in the comments and got it in large part, but I knew the trollbait were going to show up to complain about E-Jax or complain about the Oakland series as if that never happens to anyone else.
......uhhhh, yeah. people are going to complain about the oakland series. it sucked.
“stupid drivel” is a pretty fucking obnoxious comment, especially if you just direct it to posters generally. anyhow, it’s a valid point. the oakland series blew, and the rays could have used the wins.
Is the general feeling that it will take 95 wins to get in the playoffs?
is that a guesstimate or based on some sort of historical trend?
www.bucem.com - SBNation's source for all things Buccaneer
You have three true-talent 90+ win teams in the divison.
So, yeah, it’s probably taking 94-97 to touch October.
by R.J. Anderson on Jul 16, 2009 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions
And the latest "projections" have the Rays
finishing with what, 92 wins? 89 wins? So we have 2 weeks from tomorrow to figure out if we are buying or selling, gonna be an interesting two weeks.
www.bucem.com - SBNation's source for all things Buccaneer
Agreed.
Not sure why people are asking if the Rays are buyers or sellers. I have no idea what they’d sell and less of an idea on what their buy would be.
The Crawford deal will only happen if the right offer comes along, I don’t think the next two weeks have much of an affect on that. I suppose a reliever trade could happen if they fall back some more but I would hope they would trade those players anyway.
I just don't see that as a buy...
Sure it is, but when the media hooks onto the buy and sell I generally don’t think they mean a backup catch.
Incremental improvement at catcher would be beneficial, so would a trade of an excess reliever.
I just don’t expect any type of splash.
If we get Zaun, I don't think he'd be a back-up as much as a platoon player.
by R.J. Anderson on Jul 16, 2009 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions
I refer to it as back up because either he basically platoons with Navarro or Navarro goes on a tear and he just replaces Hernandez with actual production.
As far as the pen goes, I wouldn’t mind seeing moves made to clear room for Talbot, Thayer, and Sonnanstine (and Davis in September).
Is he still going to be injured in two weeks?
Also, still can move Wheeler and one of Nellie/Bradford for Sonny (unless the mono sticks with him for a while, which is obviously possible) and Thayer.
Take it back about Bradford.
I wouldn’t move him unless someone had a genuinely interesting piece to offer back, but I have no qualms about shipping out Wheels or Nellie for an Aneury Rodriguez and promoting someone else.
Bradford isn't is critical as he was last year thanks to the emergence of Cormier
Cormier induces over 50% ground balls and can serve as our ROOGY. If it will save over 1 million in salary and bring back a lower level prospect I’d be on board.
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
Acquiring a guy like Zaun is always a possibility.
Since Wieters up and they have no hope in hell at making the playoffs, the Orioles really don’t need him at all. It wouldn’t take much to acquire him.
We've already called on him this season.
They wanted to wait until Wieters was up.
There’s little chance someone of importance would be required. If we can flip them Morlan for him, consider it a success.
by R.J. Anderson on Jul 16, 2009 2:30 PM EDT up reply actions
Buy AND sell.
I wouldn’t close the door on either, no matter what. If you can grab Zaun, do it, if you can move Wheeler for a C-list prospect and salary relief, do it.
by R.J. Anderson on Jul 16, 2009 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Both a quick estimate for my post and....
after doing some research….
The wild card winner in the AL had
95 in 2008
94 in 2007
95 in 2006
95 in 2005
98 in 2004
95 in 2003
So I suppose 95 is as good a number as any in that 93-99 range for what it will take to get in the playoffs. Here’s to hoping and like someone said in a previous post, we should know for certain in the next 15-20 games. Don’t the Rays have 10 on the road and then 10 at home? 6-4 and then 8-2 sounds great to me. Even 5-5 and 8-2 sounds good.
99 in 2002
If the Rays were not playing the Red Sox and Yanks head to head
I would concede and start to come to the realization that third place is as good as it gets this year. But, the Rays have 8 games against the Red Sox and 10 against the Yanks. If they take they 5 from the Red sox they gain three games, they they take 7 from the Yanks they 4 games on the Yanks they just need to play consistent ball, which the Rays are very capable of doing. This season is far from over. Go Rays.
In the name of Shinji Mori, we shall win!
by thebaddancingraysfan on Jul 16, 2009 1:23 PM EDT reply actions
Taking 5 of 8 ....
is only a gain of 2 games, is it not?
At any rate, it’s a steep, uphill climb. Yes it is far from over but with each passing day, and no ground made up, the slope becomes steeper. I guess looking at it this way is better. Being within 4 or 5 of the wild card on 9/1 is in it. More than 5 out, it’s gonna be a feat.
Go Rays!
I was wrong on my quick math. You are right.
I agree w/you full heartily. Right now IS WAY TOO SOON to be talking bleak. The Rays are is a fine striking distance. If they are outside of 5 games come September THEN, I WILL START be sick to my stomach becuase the Rays will win 92 games and not make the playoffs. I really do like your insight, though.
Go Rays.
In the name of Shinji Mori, we shall win!
by thebaddancingraysfan on Jul 16, 2009 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions
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