I’ve been a  long time lurker here on draysbay and I recently decided to try my hand at writing about baseball. I posted something similar to this on BtB and I figured I’d construct a similar post for the defending AL Champs. I'm new to posting, so I'm hoping this fanpost is somewhat interesting and reasonably sabermetrically sound.

Basically what the post looks at is the career pre and post ASB numbers for Rays players on roster, excluding injuries like Aki (I included Percy, because we'll never be able escape Percy, ever, okay kidding I didn't include him), and then attempts to come up with team runs above replacement values based off a 1st half and 2nd half team wOBA and FIP.

Wow, that’s a large run difference in the 2nd half. It appears the Rays have a lot of 2nd half performers, with hitting and starting pitching expected to improve and relievers holding steady. Overall, the 2nd half team should play a lot better than the 1st half team and at 2.7 wins, it will make the competitive AL East race even tighter.

You can see from the hitting table that the Rays hitters play a lot better in the 2nd half. They’re batting average improves to go along with less strike outs. Walks also decreased but their BB/K shows some improvement. At 17 runs or 1.7 wins, the already dangerous Rays offense could get a 2nd half boost.

Rays starters have pitched poorly over the 1st half of the season. However, looking at career splits, we see that their 2nd half has historically been better. All the good signs are there, more strikeouts, fewer walks, and lower HR/9. A 12 run pitching improvement just might be what the Rays need to get back in the race.

The Rays bullpen has been surprisingly effective the past two years. In the 2nd half it appears that they’ll be about 2 runs worse. Given their workload already, it doesn’t bode too well. Fewer strikes and more walks will make for some tense late innings, but overall the relieving corps should hold steady.

With a 27.7 run improvement in the 2nd half, The Tampa Bay Rays will put pressure on the rest of the AL East. The defending champs still have some life and their career splits give them some hope. Better batting, better starting pitching, and a steady bullpen sure sound like a winning formul.

Thanks for reading! Any feedback or suggestions would be much appreciated.