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Rays Career Performance, Before/After the All-Star Break

I’ve been a  long time lurker here on draysbay and I recently decided to try my hand at writing about baseball. I posted something similar to this on BtB and I figured I’d construct a similar post for the defending AL Champs. I'm new to posting, so I'm hoping this fanpost is somewhat interesting and reasonably sabermetrically sound.

Basically what the post looks at is the career pre and post ASB numbers for Rays players on roster, excluding injuries like Aki (I included Percy, because we'll never be able escape Percy, ever, okay kidding I didn't include him), and then attempts to come up with team runs above replacement values based off a 1st half and 2nd half team wOBA and FIP.

TB

1st Half

2nd Half

∆RAR

Batting

53.2

71.1

-17.91

SP

70.5

83.2

-12.67

RP

15.1

12.2

2.90

Total

138.9

166.6

-27.69

Wow, that’s a large run difference in the 2nd half. It appears the Rays have a lot of 2nd half performers, with hitting and starting pitching expected to improve and relievers holding steady. Overall, the 2nd half team should play a lot better than the 1st half team and at 2.7 wins, it will make the competitive AL East race even tighter.

Batting

BA

OBP

SLG

OPS

BB%

K%

wOBA

1st Half

0.265

0.344

0.439

0.784

10.4%

19.6%

0.350

2nd Half

0.272

0.350

0.450

0.799

10.1%

18.4%

0.357

Diff

-0.007

-0.005

-0.010

-0.015

0.002

0.012

-0.007

You can see from the hitting table that the Rays hitters play a lot better in the 2nd half. They’re batting average improves to go along with less strike outs. Walks also decreased but their BB/K shows some improvement. At 17 runs or 1.7 wins, the already dangerous Rays offense could get a 2nd half boost.

Pitching

W-L%

ERA

WHIP

K/9

BB/9

HR/9

IP/GS

FIP

1H-SP

0.545

4.23

1.34

7.44

3.05

1.07

6.04

4.19

2H-SP

0.505

3.97

1.32

8.02

3.00

1.01

5.97

3.96

Diff

0.041

0.27

0.02

-0.58

0.06

0.06

0.08

0.23

Rays starters have pitched poorly over the 1st half of the season. However, looking at career splits, we see that their 2nd half has historically been better. All the good signs are there, more strikeouts, fewer walks, and lower HR/9. A 12 run pitching improvement just might be what the Rays need to get back in the race.

Pitching

W-L%

ERA

WHIP

K/9

BB/9

HR/9

FIP

1H-RP

0.552

3.91

1.32

7.27

3.41

0.85

3.94

2H-RP

0.445

4.21

1.42

6.99

3.61

0.86

4.05

Diff

0.107

-0.30

-0.10

0.28

-0.19

-0.01

-0.11

The Rays bullpen has been surprisingly effective the past two years. In the 2nd half it appears that they’ll be about 2 runs worse. Given their workload already, it doesn’t bode too well. Fewer strikes and more walks will make for some tense late innings, but overall the relieving corps should hold steady.

With a 27.7 run improvement in the 2nd half, The Tampa Bay Rays will put pressure on the rest of the AL East. The defending champs still have some life and their career splits give them some hope. Better batting, better starting pitching, and a steady bullpen sure sound like a winning formul.

Thanks for reading! Any feedback or suggestions would be much appreciated.

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good stuff

Hopefully this holds true and the team comes out guns blazing.

www.draysbay.com

by Tommy Rancel on Jul 16, 2009 7:32 PM EDT via mobile reply actions  

I like the sub-4 FIP for our starters 2nd half

One question, are these weighted averages or simple averages? Good stuff.

SOSH AUCTION to K ALS

by Sandy Kazmir on Jul 17, 2009 9:53 AM EDT reply actions  

Much appreciated. Do you happen to have by player breakdowns?

Also, don’t take much stock if you’re not getting a lot of comments on this thread. Keep posting.

I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.

by kericr on Jul 17, 2009 12:35 PM EDT reply actions  

Good stuff

I agree that we should be a better team come the second half. If we could get some consistency from our starting pitching I think this team is poised to make a great second half run. I’m not worried about the offense too much because I think Burrell and Upton will help to offset the regression I’m expecting from Zobrist and Bartlett. Good post though. I like to see stats that back up my expectations.

by ReyL on Jul 17, 2009 11:53 PM EDT reply actions  

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