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#25: David Price, LHP, Tampa Bay: 0.2 WAR

The adjustment from bullpen playoff hero to front of the rotation starter has been rougher than planned, as Price's command has been miserable this season, but he's still showed ace-in-the-making stuff. Once he gets a little more confidence in his change-up, watch out. The major league contract he signed as the top pick in the draft makes him more expensive than most pitchers with his service time level, but he's still a remarkably big bargain, and he won't be eligible for free agency until after 2015.

#21: B.J. Upton, CF, Tampa Bay: 1.8 WAR

Pretty soon, we might just have to label Upton a tease. He has all the skills, and after a dominating October, he looked poised for a huge year. Instead, he's regressed a bit, and at 25-years-old, we're still waiting for him to put it all together. Even with the .239 batting average, he does enough other things (especially on defense) to be valuable, but he could be so much more than the +4 win player that he is now. With arbitration coming this winter, and the Rays depth of outfield talent, it will be interesting to see how patient Tampa is with him.

about 1 year ago Roots_game_tiny R.J. Anderson 430 comments 0 recs  | 

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It's tough to quantify..

And he had such poor power numbers last year that it would almost be a year and a half argument.

The trend is to claim 2007 as the outlier and these past two years as his performance level.

by tallyray on Jul 16, 2009 1:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

I agree with that...

But I watch him on a daily basis. Going just off stats, the ’07 season and ’08 playoffs stick out.

by tallyray on Jul 16, 2009 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'm not talking about you...

All this is referring to your original comment asking why everyone ignores his injury. Most people don’t get to watch a player on a daily basis or don’t follow the ins and outs of every injury. Most analysts are looking just at his stats and it appears his power is gone.

by tallyray on Jul 16, 2009 3:01 PM EDT up reply actions  

Ohhh OK.

Sorry for the dickwad response then. I thought it seemed strange you were like “I agree” then “biyatch!”

by rglass44 on Jul 16, 2009 3:08 PM EDT up reply actions  

I for one thought June was a glimpse of what we might see

on a regular basis, but July has been awful

Upton’s a tough call

Is he worthy of a multi year deal that buys at least his 1st year of free agency or the tease the post suggests?

by Raymondo on Jul 16, 2009 2:01 PM EDT reply actions  

Even if 2008 is ultimately his bat, that makes him a valuable player mixed with his +15 defense.

4-5 year deal in accordance with that talent level and he outperforms that? Even better.

by Suttree on Jul 16, 2009 2:04 PM EDT up reply actions  

I love this website

and have told RJ as such many times

What don’t you agree with about my statement?

by Raymondo on Jul 16, 2009 2:13 PM EDT up reply actions  

There isn't a remote chance, barring a nuclear bomb exploding within his shoulder, that he finishes the year with a 239 BA.

If he consistently puts up his 2008 season, 270/380/400 and plays +15 defense, is that a disappointment? Yes, but it’s still a good player.

by Suttree on Jul 16, 2009 2:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

Less than 800 OPS OFers, don't impress me

look i’m hoping for the best, let’s wait and see

by Raymondo on Jul 16, 2009 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

Seperate corner and center.

And realize that Carl Crawford is more valuable than Adam Dunn almost every season.

by R.J. Anderson on Jul 16, 2009 2:27 PM EDT up reply actions  

There is, in my view, a singular theme behind DRB: processes over results

The post of yours which I responded to ignored the former completely, despite exact processes being cited in this thread. He’s been injured or in the recovery process for 18 months. Do you just throw away his entire baseball life of being exceptional in favor of whatever argument suits your adversarial mood?

So long, Sweet Lime!

by PlayOnWords on Jul 16, 2009 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

Uh, depends on the price.

It always depends on the price. I’d sign Willie Aybar to a multi-year deal buying out five years of free agency if the price was right.

by Sky Kalkman on Jul 16, 2009 2:38 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yes.

If he’s asking for free agent market value, tough.

by R.J. Anderson on Jul 16, 2009 2:45 PM EDT up reply actions  

yes

What do you prefer?

by rglass44 on Jul 16, 2009 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

And...

It isn’t a measure of potential or worth going forward; it is a measure of value up to this point.

by rglass44 on Jul 16, 2009 3:14 PM EDT up reply actions  

RJ, i'd take Price over Sowers seven days a week and twice on Sunday

but when i get flashed these stats, i like to balance them out a bit

by Raymondo on Jul 16, 2009 3:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

Huh????
The adjustment from bullpen playoff hero to front of the rotation starter has been rougher than planned, as Price’s command has been miserable this season, but he’s still showed ace-in-the-making stuff. Once he gets a little more confidence in his change-up, watch out. The major league contract he signed as the top pick in the draft makes him more expensive than most pitchers with his service time level, but he’s still a remarkably big bargain, and he won’t be eligible for free agency until after 2015.

by rglass44 on Jul 16, 2009 3:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

I don't understand what your point is.

Price has been worth less than Sowers because so far he’s been worse at pitching. Going forward, that’s not likely to be the case. WAR is telling us that so far, he hasn’t been good. We cannot use 10 starts of WAR and nothing else for predictive purposes.

by R.J. Anderson on Jul 16, 2009 3:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

What point?

That you lead the site in straw-man arguments?

by rglass44 on Jul 16, 2009 3:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

I don't get why we're in this argument

I agreed with the thread, suggesting Upton might be a tease, and that i guess is not allowed

by Raymondo on Jul 16, 2009 3:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

Exactly.

You just said WAR isn’t a valid statistic out of nowhere. You are a troll.

by rglass44 on Jul 16, 2009 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

You call this trolling? I call it a good debate

what fun is a site, if we all blow every Rays player?

by Raymondo on Jul 16, 2009 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

I don't think that's the point at all.

If you look above, I agreed with you – there’s a chance Upton is a tease… but based upon his all ready established MLB levels of success, he’ll still be a good player barring a catastrophe – just not a Hall of Fame type player, despite his tool shed. The problem is when you say things like,“If he doesn’t improve on his 230 batting average..” Of course he’s going to improve on that! It’s impossible for him not to unless he gets hit the head and suffers a loss of brain functionality.

by Suttree on Jul 16, 2009 3:26 PM EDT up reply actions  

He was a 4.5 win player the last two years.

He’s been worth 1.8 so far, so he’s going to finish near 3.5-4 most likely. 4 win center fielders are nice. People love to point out the flaws in Upton’s game, but he’s already pretty damn good.

by R.J. Anderson on Jul 16, 2009 3:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

Also: he's what, 25? So he should only get better as long as he's here.

And he’s here for less than free agent market value.

Desmond might be our centerfielder in three years and play just as well as B.J., but I would advise against taking his talent for granted.

by R.J. Anderson on Jul 16, 2009 3:30 PM EDT up reply actions  

Oh, I agree, I'm just defending the viewpoint that BJ may not live up to his ceiling.

Which is absolutely fine, because based upon his all ready established MLB playing level, he’s a damned good player.

by Suttree on Jul 16, 2009 3:32 PM EDT up reply actions  

Not to mention that he is one of the funnest players in baseball to watch.

When was the last time you saw someone take hom on a throw to first?

by rglass44 on Jul 16, 2009 3:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

Did i or did i not say this?

‘if he holds serve on his 239/320 he needs to be replaced’?

by Raymondo on Jul 16, 2009 3:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

You did, which a ridiculous thing to say, because again - barring a lobotomy -

there is no chance a player who just the year before was a 4 win player finishes the season with a 240 batting average. The simple law of averages prevent this from happening. The entire history of baseball prevents this from happening. Arguing that point is not only inane, it’s insane.

by Suttree on Jul 16, 2009 3:31 PM EDT up reply actions  

How about this?

If he finishes the season with a BA above .250 then I get to mock you whenever I want for being a tool. If he doesn’t then you get to.

by rglass44 on Jul 16, 2009 3:33 PM EDT up reply actions  

That doesn't seem fair.

There are far worse trolls on this site than Raymondo.

by R.J. Anderson on Jul 16, 2009 3:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

Not when hes on his game

Sometimes he slips up

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Jul 16, 2009 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yes

He is the one that trolls the least trolly and I can’t just ignore. He’s not an actual troll, but he is more annoying because of it. I am glad he’s still here, though.

by rglass44 on Jul 16, 2009 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions  

At least he shows up on a nearly daily basis and isn't hit and run.

And he’s not posting “Will this team even finish .500?” in every thread. He’s gone soft.

by R.J. Anderson on Jul 16, 2009 3:36 PM EDT up reply actions  

lol

Maybe I’ll do the 54 things I miss about Longo4prez.

by rglass44 on Jul 16, 2009 3:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

the funny thing is, i love Upton, and have stated

the day he leaves for the Yankees will be a sad one

by Raymondo on Jul 16, 2009 3:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

What about the White Sox

where his work ethic would be appreciated.

www.bucem.com - SBNation's source for all things Buccaneer

by Buc Wild on Jul 16, 2009 3:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

but...
‘if he holds serve on his 239/320 he needs to be replaced’?

by rglass44 on Jul 16, 2009 3:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

You don't debate, though.

You never are clear in what you are “debating.” You’d rather skirt around with innuendos and the like so you can hide behind your veil of ambiguity. I have no problem with you disagreeing, but THE WAY you disagree is chock full of intellectual dishonesty.

by rglass44 on Jul 16, 2009 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions  

No you can't.

You might THINK a stat means something, maybe because you don’t understand it or someone’s pulling the wool over your eyes, but stats don’t lie, people do. If you deal with them properly (which is really damn tough to do) then you get proper conclusions most of the time.

by Sky Kalkman on Jul 16, 2009 3:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

You can make stats say anything

the point is to look at them the way they were meant to be used. If i go 1 for 1 in a game, we could say I’m a better hitter than anyone in MLB history, but that’s taking it out of context.

Common sense people.

www.bucem.com - SBNation's source for all things Buccaneer

by Buc Wild on Jul 16, 2009 3:43 PM EDT up reply actions  

WAR says nothing about age or potential

Compare WARs at ages

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Jul 16, 2009 3:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

They can...

It will just be about as valid as my answer.

by rglass44 on Jul 16, 2009 3:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

Are you serious?

I asked what we could get for him. That is the exact same question…

Wow.

by plasticman on Jul 16, 2009 3:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

We could get a lot of things.

The issue is what are we looking for? We could probably get Halladay for him (or come close).

by rglass44 on Jul 16, 2009 3:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

Nobody on this site, the place you asked that question, would know what we could definitely get for him.

None of us are in the front office daily or know what GMs are willing to give up. Do you not understand this?

by R.J. Anderson on Jul 16, 2009 3:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

RAY GIRLS, 3 AT A TIME!

Especially the curly haired one with glasses. You have to take a hedge clipper to clean the shit up between her legs.

by Suttree on Jul 16, 2009 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions  

They may or may not.

The issue is trying to figure a fictional package for a player we have no incentive to trade. It’s the definition of an exercise in futility.

by rglass44 on Jul 16, 2009 3:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

Raymondo

In a clear concise paragraph, explain why Upton’s current service game would need to be replaced. Explain why you don’t credit him as hurt but others you do.

/WINDS UP PLASTICMAN

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Jul 16, 2009 3:43 PM EDT reply actions  

I like plasticman.

He gets mad when I make jokes about the jews.

by Suttree on Jul 16, 2009 3:44 PM EDT up reply actions  

Random aside.

I love how many people here are so gung-ho about trading great players if the return and situation merit it.

And then there are Pirate fans who are bemoaning the potential loss of Jack Wilson, who’s gone soon anyways, and will never have any bearing on whether the team makes the playoffs or not.

by Sky Kalkman on Jul 16, 2009 3:47 PM EDT reply actions  

Price's .2 WAR

expected or unexpected at this point?

www.bucem.com - SBNation's source for all things Buccaneer

by Buc Wild on Jul 16, 2009 3:48 PM EDT reply actions  

Uh, completely unexpected.

I figured one or two really bad starts, and then a lot of 5 innings, 8 strikeout, 3-4 walk games, not shittiness.

by Suttree on Jul 16, 2009 3:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

His performance has been the biggest disappointment this year

Although his underlying numbers are showing serious improvement.

by matthan on Jul 16, 2009 3:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

Kazmir wasn't pitching that well at the end of last year

So his performance wasn’t totally unexpected. I think most of us expected Price to do pretty well.

Although both guys, and Sonny, have pitched better than what their numbers indicate.

by matthan on Jul 16, 2009 3:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

I seem to remember him doing pretty well in a certain ALCS game 5

If only the bullpen had held out, perhaps he would have hoisted an MVP instead of the The Garz

SOSH AUCTION to K ALS

by Sandy Kazmir on Jul 16, 2009 3:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

Well obviously thats a small sample

Kaz hasn’t sucked every single game since the ASG last year. His performance from the ASG to the end of last year wasn’t exactly stellar.

by matthan on Jul 16, 2009 3:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

He wasn't horrible down the stretch last year and into the playoffs.

Once the finish line was in sight he was throwing sliders again, elbow be damned. If we are going to use injuries as an excuse for Beej, then that same hand has to be extended to Kaz who has gutted it out with a hurt wing.

SOSH AUCTION to K ALS

by Sandy Kazmir on Jul 16, 2009 3:57 PM EDT up reply actions  

You guys are arguing degrees.

He wasn’t horrible, but he wasn’t great either. Matthan’s just saying Kaz’s performance has been as shocking because of the injuries and what not, where as Price has no such excuse.

by Suttree on Jul 16, 2009 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions  

Here's FIP Based on Chone pre-season, with k/9 & B/9 after

Shields 3.72 7.02 1.80
Kazmir 3.68 9.78 3.75
Sonnanstine 4.05 5.95 1.90
Garza 4.11 6.70 3.16
Price 4.59 6.72 3.87
Niemann 4.85 6.91 3.78

SOSH AUCTION to K ALS

by Sandy Kazmir on Jul 16, 2009 4:10 PM EDT up reply actions  

Actuals in same order

Shields 3.71 6.28 1.81
Kazmir 5.45 7.26 4.79
Sonnanstine 5.11 5.51 2.42
Garza 4.28 7.94 3.50
Price 5.18 9.61 6.34
Niemann 4.51 5.18 3.86

SOSH AUCTION to K ALS

by Sandy Kazmir on Jul 16, 2009 4:14 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'll just sum this up

Upton’s career so far has been a disappointment. By that I mean he hasn’t reached the potential he has at this age. So in comparison to his potential it as been a disapointment. Of course dominating in the playoffs gives him quite a bit of rope. In comparison to other CFers Upton is not a disappointment. Sure he isn’t as good as we thought he’d be by now, but he is still one of the best CFers in the game. You don’t replace or talk about replacing one of the best players at his position because he isn’t as good as you thought he could be.

Why has Upton not be as good as we thought he’d be? Well this is pure speculation. Of course we’d have to put injury near the top. Then perhaps changing positions and being rushed through the system. Then perhaps his personality and approach at the plate.

Over time those factors will become less and less of an influence. If injury is the main cause for his less than what we’d expected performance then we should see a major spike in his performance at some point. If it isn’t then perhaps this is what BJ Upton is: a very good CFer.

by matthan on Jul 16, 2009 3:49 PM EDT reply actions  

I disagree.

Most were writing him off when he was booting 40 balls a year in the minors.

by rglass44 on Jul 16, 2009 3:51 PM EDT up reply actions  

I imagine I would be too

if the last taste of success I had was snuffed out by a man slower than a quadrapalegic beating a throw home.

www.bucem.com - SBNation's source for all things Buccaneer

by Buc Wild on Jul 16, 2009 3:50 PM EDT reply actions  

Fuck

Ultimate Reply FAIL (supposed to be on the Pirates sub-thread).

www.bucem.com - SBNation's source for all things Buccaneer

by Buc Wild on Jul 16, 2009 3:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

This, not until kericr starts it

This was supposed to be his moment

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Jul 16, 2009 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions  

That FanPost went down DRB's memory hole.

Along with bgfour and that teabag photoshop in the SRQ thread.

Sign lady must die.

by EminenceFront on Jul 16, 2009 4:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

He emailed Erik again.

Guy really is annoying for someone who hates this site.

by R.J. Anderson on Jul 16, 2009 4:04 PM EDT up reply actions  

RJ has some pretty impressive dick spreadsheets.

They have all the DickFX calculations and everything.

by rglass44 on Jul 16, 2009 4:08 PM EDT up reply actions  

These were on SRQ's shoulder.

I can’t process that shit man.

Sign lady must die.

by EminenceFront on Jul 16, 2009 4:08 PM EDT up reply actions  

bgfour still lives on in spirit with his Fanposts

the unkowninsider’s collective genius has been lost though.

www.bucem.com - SBNation's source for all things Buccaneer

by Buc Wild on Jul 16, 2009 4:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

Article idea: total team WAR using only players born in the Bay area

Joyce, Span, Litsch, Figgins, Sheff, Kevin Cash, i know I’m forgetting more.

So long, Sweet Lime!

by PlayOnWords on Jul 16, 2009 4:27 PM EDT reply actions  

i mean active

an all time list would be sick, probably the best for one metro area

So long, Sweet Lime!

by PlayOnWords on Jul 16, 2009 4:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

Cinci

Griff, Pete Rose, Youks, ???

by rglass44 on Jul 16, 2009 4:30 PM EDT up reply actions  

I was in her Marine Biology class when he was in the World Series.

Her class was easy and she like me, so I never had a problem with her.

Tools Whore

by Tyler on Jul 16, 2009 4:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

It was eays.

She hated me, though. Me and all my stoner friends had it right after lunch. Needless to say we weren’t the most enjoyable bunch to teach. I think I had her the same year. Weird.

by rglass44 on Jul 16, 2009 4:36 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah, she was a bitch if she didn't like you.

I had her first period so I was barely awake.

Tools Whore

by Tyler on Jul 16, 2009 4:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

Isn't Brandon Backe from the area?

He’s still a stud right?

SOSH AUCTION to K ALS

by Sandy Kazmir on Jul 16, 2009 4:31 PM EDT up reply actions  

Slide Master Coghlan

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Jul 16, 2009 4:33 PM EDT up reply actions  

Lastings MIlledge

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Jul 16, 2009 4:33 PM EDT up reply actions  

HoJo!!!

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Jul 16, 2009 4:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

Jesse Litsch

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Jul 16, 2009 4:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

Kurt Abbott

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Jul 16, 2009 4:42 PM EDT up reply actions  

There was the tall, skinny white kid that went to Illinois for basketball.

Smith was his last name, I think. Also, a girlfriend of mine went there. No big deal.

by rglass44 on Jul 17, 2009 9:19 AM EDT up reply actions  

Nick Smith, 7 footer?

I played against him in the Tampa Bay Club Sports Men’s League.

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Jul 17, 2009 9:55 AM EDT up reply actions  

I had a few friends that went to Bloomingdale

Whenever they saw Nick Smith in that one Big Dance they would just laugh their asses off.

SOSH AUCTION to K ALS

by Sandy Kazmir on Jul 17, 2009 10:11 AM EDT up reply actions  

I owned him in a game.

Dude was terrible. He was 7 feet and could shoot, though.

disclaimer*****

By owned I mean went for like 15-10 while holding him to less. I did not drop like 30 on him.

by rglass44 on Jul 17, 2009 10:14 AM EDT up reply actions  

Yea, he can defintely shoot, but so uncomfortable underneath

He should own the boards in a local yokel rec league and score at will in the paint. He did neither. He was probably the 3rd best rebounder on his team. Of course, we were the worst rebounding team in the league, champs nonetheless.

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Jul 17, 2009 10:43 AM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah

I was a year or two younger, 6 iches shorter, and still bullied him in the paint. Pussy.

by rglass44 on Jul 17, 2009 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

Apparently rglass is our resident giant

DRB strikes me as a bunch of Lilliputians (all 5’9 of myself included)

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Jul 17, 2009 12:32 PM EDT up reply actions  

I love how I got attacked by asking about a trade, when the linked article is called "trade values"

I just noticed that:)

WINDS UP FREEZORILLA AND ANYONE ELSE WHO WANTS TO VENT THEIR FRUSTRATIONS ON THE INTERNET BECAUSE THEY HATE THEIR LIVESARRRRRGGGHHHH!!!!

by plasticman on Jul 16, 2009 5:38 PM EDT reply actions  

Do I come off as angry and miserable? Wow, you have the wrong guy

I just think its funny that for consecutive days, Raymondo has been talking in one sentence circles that when put together make no logical sense, and you act outraged that people challenge his opinion(s). DRB only needs one patent attorney looking out for his client.

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Jul 16, 2009 5:51 PM EDT up reply actions  

FreeZorilla

You made the comment about me: believe me, I’m not trying to seriously insult you. I’m kidding around. I don’t know why you made the comment about me… maybe I should be flattered?

W Raymondo, just let him talk or ask questions. Really, it makes more sense to do that than to go after him. What is the point otherwise? Sometimes brining up alternate points of view is very helpful, even if the argument is not great. That’s all I’ve said.

And when I ask questions, I often get a runaround or people take offense that—GASP—I’m asking questions because I think you guys might have some good answers!

by plasticman on Jul 16, 2009 6:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

Fair enough

Your question deal w/ RJ is that issue. I just thought the Raymondo defense was odd. He clearly was trolling given his lack of answers to my questions

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Jul 16, 2009 6:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

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