Open Day Thoughts

by R.J. Anderson on Jul 2, 2009 12:21 PM EDT

Evan Longoria sat at 820 plate appearances entering yesterday's game with a career wOBA of .384. As a 22/23-year-old, Alex Rodriguez posted a combined ~.398 wOBA in 1,320 plate appearances. Barry Bonds' wOBA at those ages was close to .365. David Wright's seasons resembled Longoria's nearly to a tee. Mike Schmidt wasn't a star at this age in his career, and Brooks Robinson would have one season of his illustrious career with a wOBA that tops Longoria's to date.

Talk about a June to forget. Matt Garza's ERA for the month looks nice, but his FIP is a plump 5.2. Blame it on the homeruns, decreased strikeouts, and increased walks. Somehow Garza stranded 90% of batters who reached base. That won't last, and neither will the 14% of fly balls going over the fences.

Not only is B.J. Upton now hitting above league average, but he's dangerously close to reaching 2 WAR. I take back what I said about reaching 4 WAR, I'm pretty sure he's going to reach it.

Back to Longoria for a second, he's on pace for a 7+ win season. Apparently Evan is really good.

Three with Texas, three more with Toronto,, three with Oakland, and then the all-star break. Going into the ‘halfway' point at 10 games above .500 would be a nice goal. Especially with a ridiculous road trip coming out of the break: 3 @ KC, 4 @ CHA, 3 @ TOR.

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James Shields gave up 3 HR's yesterday and took on yet another loss

How does Jim Hickey still have his job?

SOSH AUCTION to K ALS

by Sandy Kazmir on Jul 2, 2009 12:25 PM EDT reply actions

He didn't throw up the HR's?

by Raymondo on Jul 2, 2009 12:47 PM EDT up reply actions

I hope this was super duper sarcasm.

by Suttree on Jul 2, 2009 12:51 PM EDT up reply actions

what do you think

SOSH AUCTION to K ALS

by Sandy Kazmir on Jul 2, 2009 1:04 PM EDT up reply actions

I don't think, I READ

by Suttree on Jul 2, 2009 2:03 PM EDT up reply actions

If you really think this is the kind of argumentation that the "fire-Hickey" crowd is using

you are a moron. If you want to make a reasoned argument for keeping Hick go ahead. The argument that “he doesn’t do anything” isn’t substantive.

by RaysTheRoof on Jul 2, 2009 3:56 PM EDT up reply actions

The pitch always raises a few decibels after a performance like that.

I think Matt has hit the nail on the head with his and FreeZo’s work as far as what is moving in which direction. It still doesn’t tell us why. Why are they throwing less changeups? One thing that I do like is that they let the starters ease into ST and the early season after throwing all the extra innings throughout the playoffs last year. If this wasn’t Hickey’s idea, then at some point Mad Dog went to him and said hey what do you think about this, and clearly his input was on the pro side. I like that Shields is throwing more sliders than ever before. I like that Garza is so fastball heavy. I like that Joe Nelson has figured it out a little bit after a rough patch. I like that Wheeler is throwing his splitter again of late, and it isn’t just sitting up in the zone. I like that JP Howell went from a failed starter to our relief ace under Hickey’s watch. I like that we had the confidence to bring in Choate and then actually use him (for the most part in situations that he is designed for, if he does face a righty it’s usually a 4-5 pitch BB, always careful). I like that Niemann seems to be working a little quicker. I like that Percival is sitting on the DL. I like that Bobby Ramos continues to stay employed, I think he has the perfect mentality for what he does. I like that Balfour has thrown more sliders and seems to be more reliable of late.

Each one of these individual things may not seem like much or it could be said that the pitcher tweaked these things, but when you see all these things going in the right direction you have to give credit where it is due. Of course mistakes are going to happen along the way. No coach/manager is going to be right 100% of the time (in no job is someone going to be perfect), but it is how you bounce off the canvas and adapt to the new situation that matters. I see that out of Hickey. I’m sure you will have something snide to say about this, perhaps that there is no statistical basis, or that my argument is no different from the guys that want him to go. That’s fine, you asked me a question and here is my answer. I think he does a world of good for this team and it would be a shame if he is let go due to some overzealous shouting from people that think this kind of job is easy.

SOSH AUCTION to K ALS

by Sandy Kazmir on Jul 2, 2009 4:45 PM EDT up reply actions

Serious question

Why is FIP so highly regarded?

I point to the fact that Carl Pavano has a lower one thatn either Garza or Shields, yet i doubt many would assume that

by Raymondo on Jul 2, 2009 12:49 PM EDT reply actions

It's a good gauge of what's going on.

Some guys might sneak in based on their components, but you must admit that for the most part it is pretty effective.

SOSH AUCTION to K ALS

by Sandy Kazmir on Jul 2, 2009 1:06 PM EDT up reply actions

Who cares what many would assume?

Many are stupid.

by R.J. Anderson on Jul 2, 2009 1:13 PM EDT up reply actions

Could it be because Pavano has actually pitched well?

Oh and could it be that Garza hasn’t been some superstud this year?

by matthan on Jul 2, 2009 12:59 PM EDT reply actions

It's hard to imagine such a disparity between

a FIP and ERA, among pitchers

by Raymondo on Jul 2, 2009 1:01 PM EDT up reply actions

There shouldn't be...but if there is it is far more likely that the ERA is the one you should be skeptical of

by matthan on Jul 2, 2009 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions

So basically Garza's FIP has suffered as a result of all 3 components of FIP

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Jul 2, 2009 1:42 PM EDT reply actions

IMHO Rays fans overrate Garza

He is a good pitcher no doubt. But he isn’t a #1. He is a fringey #2/solid #3

However that is okay

If Shields maintains at #1, Price he move up to a #1, or a real good #2, Kaz and Garza can be a very good #3 then we would be loaded.

by matthan on Jul 2, 2009 1:55 PM EDT up reply actions

Why do you think Garza's only a 3 at best?

I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.

by kericr on Jul 2, 2009 2:04 PM EDT up reply actions

His K numbers belie his stuff

Now, maybe he can mix up the breaking balls more as the stakes are higher ala ALCS, but when he is just pumping fastballs his K’s stay pretty low.

SOSH AUCTION to K ALS

by Sandy Kazmir on Jul 2, 2009 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions

Figured that's what it was, but with the way he's been going recently, I was wondering if he had something a little bit deeper that I hadn't been seeing.

I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.

by kericr on Jul 2, 2009 4:24 PM EDT up reply actions

This may be unneccesary and I may be alone with this thought

but I would like to see Joe Dillon DFA and Carlos Hernandez added to the pen. Dillon has no use on the team now that interleague is over and I think having a long reliever like Hernandez could be very valuable. For those thinking why not just bring up Sonny and keep him in the pen, I think he carries more value starting in AAA than being a bullpen guy in the majors. If he is traded it will be to a team needing a 5th starter not a long reliever.

by Dbullsfan on Jul 2, 2009 1:46 PM EDT reply actions