Project Prospect Midseason Top 50

DJ at 25 and Wade Davis at 36. They had Wade ranked at 49 and DJ at 75 (and Hellboy ranked at 44) in the offseason. A bit of an unorthodox list (as it notes at the bottom, it ranks guys based on floor more than ceiling), but at least someone is reanalysing these guys at midseason.

over 2 years ago Brickhaus 12 comments 0 recs |

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I read this earlier

and am intrigued by their comment on Beckham. I understand concerns about his fielding as he is making errors in bunches, and when I saw him play he seemed to throw wrong. But it seems to me that at age 19 he is holding his own at the plate pretty well. He isn’t dominating, but is not striking out inordinately and his walk rate, while mediocre, is not terrible. He also has a decent number of doubles and four home runs.

by bobr on Jul 2, 2009 7:47 PM EDT reply actions

I don't understand the Beckham comment either.

His offense is fine when you consider context.

by R.J. Anderson on Jul 3, 2009 12:58 AM EDT up reply actions

They'll hold him out at short as long as possible, right?

It’s kind of crazy to think maybe BJ could have actually played short – I mean, he was at the MLB level when he was 20.

by Suttree on Jul 3, 2009 11:12 AM EDT up reply actions

Here's my thinking

First off, thank you for the link. I’ve enjoyed watching DRaysBay grow over the years.

I could see why people would be caught off guard with the Tim Beckham comment we published along with our Top 50. The “things aren’t looking good at the plate” comment was in terms of how he compares to the other elite prospects in the game. We have Beckham in the top 1% of all baseball prospects. That’s outstanding company. Compared to them, he has room to improve offensively. That’s what I was going for.

by Adam Foster on Jul 3, 2009 2:12 PM EDT up reply actions

Adam

Would Beckham rank higher if he were killing rookie ball pitching?

by R.J. Anderson on Jul 3, 2009 2:32 PM EDT up reply actions

No

I don’t put much weight into numbers from short-season leagues.

by Adam Foster on Jul 3, 2009 2:35 PM EDT up reply actions

Understandable.

I was wondering if the raw numbers would’ve made him rank higher though.

Either way, thanks for stopping by. I appreciate it.

by R.J. Anderson on Jul 3, 2009 2:39 PM EDT up reply actions

Someone needs to explain to me how Bumgarner is so low.

Brad Ziegler had a scoreless inning streak. Brad Ziegler had not met BJ Upton.

by P Brady on Jul 3, 2009 12:13 AM EDT reply actions

Sure

He has an above-average fastball but his breaking ball and changeup are both below-average pitches. He’s a guy whose numbers look better, on the surface, than they actually are. Go check out his strikeout rate over the last month in Double-A — it’s about half of what it was in Low-A.

Bumgarner has some adjustments to make. He’s not the slam dunk prospect that a lot of people make him out to be. I’ve saw him pitch in high school and I’ve seen him pitch a few times this season. He really hasn’t changed that much since his days at South Caldwell HS.

by Adam Foster on Jul 3, 2009 2:17 PM EDT up reply actions

Hm, I've seen him a bit and I think you're underselling his breaking pitch a bit. It's not a plus pitch by any means, but I wouldn't call call it below average.

He still has a K/BB of almost 3 as a 19 year old in AA. I have him at 15, not sure why he’s worse than Weglarz or Brown. But different strokes for different folks, eh.

Brad Ziegler had a scoreless inning streak. Brad Ziegler had not met BJ Upton.

by P Brady on Jul 3, 2009 2:36 PM EDT up reply actions

As mentioned on the site

The rankings are based more on floor than ceiling. Bumgarner has a huge ceiling, but it’s not outside the realm of possibility that he ends up being a reliever or struggling at higher levels. In that context, it makes sense why Bumgarner is ranked lower and why Beckham isn’t ranked.

Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."

by Brickhaus on Jul 3, 2009 4:34 PM EDT up reply actions