Who are you, and what have you done with Edwin Jackson?

by jdh on Jul 21, 2009 12:40 AM EDT Comment 22 comments

Look there he is!

As I’m currently in NYC for the summer, I got a chance to see my boy Edwin Jackson pitch against the Yankees last Sunday. I proudly wore my Rays Jackson jersey throughout the game (okay I don’t really own one, did anyone ever?). Funny thing is, Edwin Jackson is actually good this year, as the buddy I went with reminded me. Incessantly.

Seriously, what happened to Edwin Jackson? For the Rays he was at best, average, and at worst, well… it was painful. Moving to Detroit he all of a sudden found command, mastered his slider which always gave him fits, and blossomed into an All-Star pitcher. Which got me thinking as I was sitting there, lost in Yankees country, how did he do it? What changed?

Let’s look at his 2008 and 2009 splits just for fun before we dig in.

	ERA	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BABIP	tRA	O-Swg
2008	4.42	1.51	5.30	3.78	1.13	0.301	5.68	21.7%
2009	2.52	1.08	7.06	2.80	0.84	0.249	3.26	27.5%

Good grief, it’s an entirely different pitcher. More strikeouts, less walks, less homers. But look at that BABIP and O-Swing percentage. Jackson’s getting lucky and batters are chasing his pitches. The 2009 version is the Ejax we could only dream of.

But, looking at 2008 and 2009 Pitch f/x data, I’ve come up with the conclusion Jackson really doesn’t appear to be all that different. Okay, that’s not entirely true, one of his pitches is entirely different, but could that pitch be the sole explanation for why Jackson suddenly turned into a beast?

2008 Pitches

Pitch Type	Avg. Speed	Max Speed	Avg. H-Break	Avg. V-Break	Num. %	Strike %
CH	85.80	90.40	-6.91	5.94	7.7%	55.7%
CU	78.07	82.60	2.65	-4.64	2.0%	70.2%
FA	94.18	99.80	-3.93	10.90	68.5%	62.1%
SL	86.80	91.60	2.25	3.01	20.7%	62.8%

2009 Pitches

Pitch Type	Avg. Speed	Max Speed	Avg. H-Break	Avg. V-Break	Num. %	Strike %
CH	85.18	88.10	-7.28	6.04	6.1%	54.6%
CU	80.89	86.30	2.04	-3.85	3.5%	56.7%
FF	94.34	99.80	-4.37	10.59	65.7%	64.8%
SL	85.97	90.00	0.54	2.13	24.4%	61.7%

So the 2009 Jackson is throwing slightly fewer fastballs and more sliders. He’s also throwing his fastball for more strikes, 64.8% vs 62.1%. Everything looks roughly the same between 2009 and 2008. So how did he become the dominant pitcher he is today? If you look closely, you’ll see the slight shift in horizontal break in all his pitches. I admit I was surprised when I saw the shift and don’t really know what it means. Maybe it’s better as more of his pitches tail away from lefties? Although, what’s also interesting is that his fastball-changeup speed difference, and fastball-slider speed difference both gained about 1 mph. But the pitch that’s really jumps out is his slider. It’s essentially a completely different slider as seen below.

via lostinsoxcountry.wordpress.com

Look at that change from 2008 to 2009. His 2009 slider has more drop and significantly less horizontal break. It still has the same speed, but it’s no longer breaking away from righties as much. Is this the answer to why Jackson has suddenly become ridiculously good? Everything else in his 2009 pitches seems to be in line with his 2008 pitches, except for that slider. Any ideas on what else it could be?

Or, as my buddy quipped, maybe he’s just channeling his inner Verlander, duh.

Thanks to: Baseball Reference, Brooks Baseball, Fangraphs, StatCorner

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Comments

Yay another Edwin Jackson discussion!!!111!!1ONE!!!

by Doug09 on Jul 21, 2009 12:42 AM EDT reply actions

No, this one is perfectly acceptable.

He obviously put thought into it. The annoying ones are when the ones that only say “WHY DID WE TRADE EDWIN?? AWESOME ERA FOR A MINOR LEAGUER?”

by R.J. Anderson on Jul 21, 2009 12:52 AM EDT up reply actions

I guess you're right.

by Doug09 on Jul 21, 2009 9:47 AM EDT up reply actions

I hear Sonnanstine is going to win AAA MVP

by matthan on Jul 21, 2009 12:46 AM EDT reply actions

On a serious note it does look like Edwin is getting lucky with his K's and Walks this year

But on the flip side he was unlucky last year with those two metrics.

Factor in that his stuff is a bit better, and he is throwing a better combination of his pitches and you get better results too. That leads me to believe that this is closer to his future performance than say last year. This is probably his peak though.

Is he a Cy Young contender year in and year out? No

But there is a good shot he can be a top 10 AL starter for the next 5 years.

by matthan on Jul 21, 2009 12:57 AM EDT reply actions

If you're a top 10 AL starter for the next 5 years

doesn’t that make you a Cy Young contender (pre-season at least) year in and year out?

I could be wrong though

by staplemaniac on Jul 21, 2009 1:42 PM EDT up reply actions

I wouldn't say so.

Maybe, but there are some guys that are top 10 every year that don’t get the love they should. Look at Buerhle, he’s got one top 5 finish, but I’d say he si consistantly a top 10 pitcher in the AL.

by rglass44 on Jul 21, 2009 2:14 PM EDT up reply actions

IMO I'd only say the top 5 guys are truly contenders

I’d say Shields is top 10 in the AL, yet he is never talked about in the Cy Young race.

by matthan on Jul 21, 2009 1:53 PM EDT reply actions

About that slider...

I think it was touched on here a little bit earlier, with someone suggesting that it actually wasn’t a slider, but a curve.

I wonder how it’s movement holds up to other sliders in the league, per velocity and movement?

I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.

by kericr on Jul 21, 2009 1:53 PM EDT reply actions

Looks like the pitch Price threw last night.

by R.J. Anderson on Jul 21, 2009 2:07 PM EDT up reply actions

Oh, so the solution is simple then. Price should throw that same exact pitch 23% of the time instead of 1%, and wa-la, we have EdWIN back.

I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.

by kericr on Jul 21, 2009 2:39 PM EDT up reply actions

RJ wrote about the new slider on Fangraphs

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/edwin-jacksons-new-slider

by BrendanHarrisLives on Jul 21, 2009 4:20 PM EDT up reply actions

I thought he picked

the slider up from galarraga.

Come ON Pat the Bust, Navi can not have more homers than you

by Some other guy who does not care on Jul 22, 2009 10:06 AM EDT up reply actions

I just added the Tigers to my Est. Wins workbooks, I thought you guys might find this interesting

Top 10 by Est. Wins
Pitcher FIP PROBw Starts Est. Wins
Verlander 2.92 71.3% 20 14.27
Sabathia 3.77 71.6% 19 13.60
Beckett 3.46 71.3% 18 12.83
Halladay 2.98 74.1% 17 12.60
Lester 3.46 66.4% 18 11.94
Shields 3.83 62.6% 19 11.89
Jackson 3.85 60.2% 19 11.43
Floyd 4.00 59.3% 18 10.67
Penny 4.49 61.4% 17 10.44
Burnett 4.86 61.4% 17 10.43

This includes ALE + CWS & DET

Here’s Edwins Game-by-Game FIP chronologically
4.24
7.98
1.98
5.35
2.32
1.82
1.58
1.44
4.90
2.99
1.78
2.37
6.95
3.98
2.86
1.72
6.31
4.72
7.86