Deja Vu
by R.J. Anderson on Jul 23, 2009 4:25 PM EDT
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| OBP | SLG | BABIP | ISO | BB% | K% | HR/FB | |
| April | 0.342 | 0.448 | 0.314 | 0.179 | 9.87 | 22.61 | 10.3 |
| May | 0.362 | 0.455 | 0.323 | 0.177 | 10.95 | 22.17 | 11.3 |
| June | 0.366 | 0.498 | 0.317 | 0.214 | 10.7 | 21.76 | 15.8 |
| July | 0.328 | 0.366 | 0.291 | 0.129 | 11.44 | 24.86 | 7.5 |
Does this look familiar? If not, it should. Look at the June/July splits from last season. Same thing in the exact same months. Evan Longoria was hurt and a few others slumped. The Rays true talent offense isn't as good as it was in June, it's also not as bad as it is in July. Nobody was worried in June, nobody should be worried now.
It sucks, but it won't continue.
---
Edit: Yes this was written before the game. Snark away.
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Per Ken Rosenthal
Halladay has told several Tampa Bay players that he would waive his no-trade clause to play for the Rays, according to major-league sources.
"Doesn't Manny Ramirez look like the monster from Predator??" - Will Farrell as Harry Carey
Thanks for the post
It’s amazing how for the first 3 months of the season to this point the SP has struggled and the offense carried us and now in the last few weeks the offense begins to struggle all of a sudden the need is offense. The offense may not be the best in baseball like they were playing earlier in the year but they aren’t anywhere close to as bad as they have been lately.
i think its totally reasonable to expect our next baserunner to appear in
late august
So long, Sweet Lime!
Well we aren't going to get perfect gamed every single time out
If thats what you meant
c'mon work with me here
we’re in deep do do
Yea we're finished. 4 games out of wildcard, cancel August and September. The time is NOW
www.draysbay.com
by Tommy Rancel on Jul 23, 2009 4:41 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
So what do we do?
Sorry about earlier. I am more depressed now than pissed, so I’ll try to be more civil.
moving him up 2 spots isn't going to make a world of difference
I’m not saying I wouldn’t mind seeing it, but saying its going to turn the offense around is off base
i really don't think we were all that overrated to begin with
in fact, navarro, beej, and ptb have yet to really spark at all this year, not to mention pena and longo sucking hobo dick for the past month.
So long, Sweet Lime!
You guys bank too much on regression
It isn’t a crutch to be used whenever the team is playing poorly.
Who is truly supposed to regress upwards? The outlook is a bit more grim than what you think.
Upton's wOBA is .320, last year it was .354.
I’m not going to play games in this thread.
by R.J. Anderson on Jul 23, 2009 5:02 PM EDT up reply actions
Ok fine
Take away his woeful first month and he is right on track
No
I’m not the one saying it is a problem. I am saying we are what we are. We aren’t really over or underachieving. This is our team. Expecting our offense to dramatically improve is setting yourself up for dramatic disappointment.
We are an above average offense that is prone to major streaks both ways. That is what this team is.
And we're only 4.0 games back...
In the middle of a bad streak. If we go on a hot streak like the first two months of the season, with improved pitching, that makes us… GASP! a winning team?!
Pena has a bit of BABIP regression in store
as do Navi and Kapler. Burrel’s HR/FB% will not stay this low.
Oh, you mean playing in a non-pitchers park and in the AL might hurt him?
Good lord. I’m done here.
by R.J. Anderson on Jul 23, 2009 5:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Obviously RJ you totally missed the point
You guys are in some fantasy land thinking that Burrell is the same guy as he was in the past. He isn’t. It has nothing to do with park or league. He just isn’t as good. If you are waiting for that talent to arrive you will probably be waiting forever.
My main point is it annoys me when people misuse regression
You can’t throw it out there all the time when it doesn’t apply. On this site people throw it out there far more than they should. It is literally like whenever something bad happens it is OMG this is a fluke we must regress. That isn’t how statistics works.
How does it not apply
just offensively you could make a point for Kapler, Burrel, Pena, Navi, Upton, and lately Longo
Then do it
The whole “he is hitting under his career average so he must regress up” is not regression. You have to take into account variability and sample sizes and all that jazz. And for baseball players things like changes in leagues and parks etc. I would not be shocked if what Burrell is doing is actually fairly expected. Definitely could be within the range of likely possibilities. A highly streak hitter with an injury risk going into a tougher environment.
10% of HR/FB is pretty jarring...
when his other skills haven’t necessarily declined, certainly not as much at least…
Baseball players don't lose skills that quickly.
I did the research on ISO declines, Burrell would be the most all time by quite a bit. You really think that’s likely?
by R.J. Anderson on Jul 23, 2009 5:16 PM EDT up reply actions
take a look at Burrell's 2003 numbers
this has happened before. Batting average is mainly in the .250’s…now he’s in a better league, better division,etc. He’s a little below what could be expected for a worst case scenario, but sadly, not really.
by raysfaninminnesota on Jul 23, 2009 5:20 PM EDT up reply actions
Years of data
as opposed to half a season?
I could be wrong though
by staplemaniac on Jul 23, 2009 5:02 PM EDT up reply actions
Navi?
If anything he is a candidate to regress down all the way to AA
in July? almost all non-Navi's
which is when all this crying began
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
Why? True talent level is much higher
You can’t bank on regression the rest of the way. But you don’t blow up the roster b/c the players are underperforming. You hope it corrects itself.
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
I didn't say blow up the roster or that we aren't a good team/offense
I said that regression isn’t going to save the day. We are playing like we are supposed to play. A highly streaky offense that over the cumulative ends up being above average. That is what we are.
Ok
but the choices are to hope for the team to start hitting better which they should, or change players. Its a no brainer. There are a lot of good hitters in this lineup.
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
We have a bunch of hitters with high variability. Guys that are prone to major streaks. So when they go on a streak it shouldn’t be dismissed. It is to be expected and planned for. We act like it is somehow shocking on the board that some of our guys have horrible months. It should not be shocking. It should be expected.
Ok, so after a bad streak, their is a good streak?
Plus, streakiness doesn’t matter, its the overall effect a player has.
Brad Ziegler had a scoreless inning streak. Brad Ziegler had not met BJ Upton.
Well yes streakiness does matter
This isn’t roto baseball. But the impact isn’t huge so thats not the point.
This isn't roto baseball? Are you fucking kidding me?
Is there some sort of point system for doing well in months I was not aware of?
Brad Ziegler had a scoreless inning streak. Brad Ziegler had not met BJ Upton.
It is called a game
It has 9 innings in it. And you get wins and losses at the end.
We don’t determine who makes the playoffs by the team that has the highest wOBA at the end of the year or the lowest tRA
Except, if the team has the highest wOBA and lowest tRA
Odds are they’re really good.
by R.J. Anderson on Jul 23, 2009 5:18 PM EDT up reply actions
Seriously?
We don’t determine who makes the playoffs by the team that has the highest wOBA at the end of the year or the lowest tRA
That implies that just because you’re good in both doesn’t mean you’ll make the playoffs, does it not?
by R.J. Anderson on Jul 23, 2009 5:20 PM EDT up reply actions
Do you know what the fuck you're saying?
You basically just said the team that hits the best and pitches the best doesn’t make the playoffs. wOBA isn’t even a predictive stat. IfIt’s okay to be wrong, just admit it before you sound legally retarded.
Brad Ziegler had a scoreless inning streak. Brad Ziegler had not met BJ Upton.
I am beginning to question the cognitive function of your brain.
Brad Ziegler had a scoreless inning streak. Brad Ziegler had not met BJ Upton.
Three or four people just got the same message from your post.
Perhaps the problem was with the content of your message.
by R.J. Anderson on Jul 23, 2009 5:20 PM EDT up reply actions
I'll try to clarify again
Teams make the playoffs based upon wins and losses that are built upon 162 9 inning increments.
Team do not make the playoffs based upon who has the best wOBA at the end of the year. Last time I checked that isn’t how MLB does it. Is wOBA a good predictor on who will have the most wins? Of course it is, but it is not who determines who makes the playoffs.
Therefore lets think about this for a second. A highly streaky team can build up a their wOBA in less amount of games than a more consistent team. Since not all runs are equal it is very possible that two teams with the exact same wOBA could have two different win values and two different postseason destinations.
It comes down to would you rather have a team that scores 0 runs one game and then 12 runs the next game or a team that scores 6 runs every game. Of course thats not apples to apples with wOBA, but the same general principle applies. Variability does matter.
wOBA is not a predictive stat, if you have the best wOBA, you have the best Offensive team.
Your argument is silly.
Brad Ziegler had a scoreless inning streak. Brad Ziegler had not met BJ Upton.
3rd in wOBA, 3rd in runs
Brad Ziegler had a scoreless inning streak. Brad Ziegler had not met BJ Upton.
i can at least understand what he's getting at
stats can get skewed if a team has a bunch of blow out wins, but struggles or is below average in other games. The blow outs can make it appear that the offense is better than what it is, when all it is actually saying is the team can get bad pitching very well. This isn’t always the case, but i can see how it could happen.
by raysfaninminnesota on Jul 23, 2009 5:28 PM EDT up reply actions
like I've said twenty thousand times now
scoring runs in blowouts as opposed to consistently 5-5-5-5-5-5 isn’t something repeatable and will regress to the mean…
I want you to find an instance where the best offensive team(Most runs) didn't also have the highest wOBA.
Brad Ziegler had a scoreless inning streak. Brad Ziegler had not met BJ Upton.
i don't but that's how some do
a team is considered to have a good offense if it scores the most runs. I thought I was agreeing with you that it can be a fake stat and doesn’t exactly show how good an offense a team has.
by raysfaninminnesota on Jul 23, 2009 5:32 PM EDT up reply actions
wOBA correlates to runs scored extremely well.
If a team has a good wOBA, they have a good offense. It’s really not far-fetched.
If a team has a good tRA, they have a good pitching staff.
by R.J. Anderson on Jul 23, 2009 5:33 PM EDT up reply actions
wOBA isn't predictive at all.
It’s based on results. Singles, doubles, etc. that’s it.
Find a team that finished in the top 5 of wOBA and tRA that didn’t make the playoffs because of the streaks.
by R.J. Anderson on Jul 23, 2009 5:27 PM EDT up reply actions
This is pointless.
You: What if the sun burned out on odd numbered days, we couldn’t grow crops!
Me: The sun can’t just burn out.
You: What if it does?
Me: It doesn’t. Stop.
You: Why are you ignoring facts?
by R.J. Anderson on Jul 23, 2009 5:30 PM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
scoring "12 runs one game and 0 runs the next" as opposed to "6 runs both games" is not something that is repeatable
at least I don’t think
Of course that exact scenario isn't
But teams do have different variabilities. The number of runs scored alone is not enough. The variability of how those runs are scored is very important.
but variance of when runs are scored isn't a repeatable "skill"/value
so it should regress to the mean in that case, if it doesn’t, it will over time.
Are you trying to tell us it might not? If so put that in a memo and title it Shit, We Already Know
Of course streaks aren't repeatable
Great players want no variance.
This is stupid, of course its "roto" baseball
a hot streak will follow, and you have seemingly admitted it.
So you’re saying the impact of a hot streak isn’t huge?
I said streakiness does matter
P Brady said it does matter. I’m guessing his theory is a cold streak and a hot streak essentially balance each other out. I said that is close to true, but not always entirely. You aren’t guaranteed 50/50 splits in streaks in a given year. The distribution of your streaks makes a big difference in your playoff chances.
no, it doesn't matter
because it balances out. Maybe it wont in the amount of time we have left in this season, but if you don’t expect it to balance then you obviously think their true talent is less than the information we have suggests…
whcih would mean you’re wrong
It may balance out over a career or a decade
Not in an individual season.
"career or decade"
Wow…really?
Brad Ziegler had a scoreless inning streak. Brad Ziegler had not met BJ Upton.
Actually there really is no such thing as balancing out
Each year is independent of each other in the team result sense.
If a player is super hot for 100 games then super cold for 100 games then those two seasons are going to be totally different. This is my point. It isn’t really rocket science.
Well I meant for the individual player
A streaky player should have close to an equal portion on both sides. Like a bell curve. This will balance out over a course of a career
But we were talking about team results. It won’t balance out for an individual team since teams are measured every season.
I know that is probably a bit confusing.
It depends how severe their variance is
If it is very high they could be a below avg team one year and a tremendous team the next. No team is that high, but making the playoffs can come down to a win or two here and there.
I have no concrete information to rebute your claim
but if you want to try and find some to support your claim that goes against accepted knowledge than be my guest, but I doubt you’ll find enough
Of course it's not going to be fucking perfectly balanced. but in a whole season its not going to fucking matter
Brad Ziegler had a scoreless inning streak. Brad Ziegler had not met BJ Upton.
Yes it will
The teams are too bunched up. A streaky team having a few extra games on the hot side one year and a few extra on the cold side the next year could result in two totally different season ending results holding all else equal.
of course, but its not something we can necessarily fix
yes, thats variance, bravo, that was your point, but you can’t just assume that if everyone under performs that they won’t bounce back because they are on a “streak”
there is nothing to say we won’t have a 2 month long hot streak to override this 1 month long cold streak, you’re just speculating randomly
Where was this talk when the team almost hit for a .900 OPS in June?
by R.J. Anderson on Jul 23, 2009 5:24 PM EDT up reply actions
It was here
Plenty of us were talking about the variability and streakiness of our offense. It isn’t our fault some people here ignore the facts that they do not like.
Yes, I ignore facts.
And I thought my horse was high.
by R.J. Anderson on Jul 23, 2009 5:28 PM EDT up reply actions
I wasn't speaking to you in general
But yes many people here said we were a streaky team. This isn’t exactly something that is new.
Nobody said otherwise.
Most baseball teams are streaky. Most baseball players are streaky. You are reinventing the wheel.
by R.J. Anderson on Jul 23, 2009 5:32 PM EDT up reply actions
so you predicted a cold streak
when we were on a hot streak
isn’t that balancing out, something you’ve been trying to tell us doesn’t happen the way we say it does?
Pythag had the WC team 9 games better than the next best team last year
Brad Ziegler had a scoreless inning streak. Brad Ziegler had not met BJ Upton.
and for some reason you just assume that all streaks are negative
because not once do you say that guys like Burrel can actually gasp go on a hot streak, as you mentioned he is prone to doing.
Sorry if I fail to see the point. A cold streak followed by a hot streak is called regression, regardless of what you want to quantify it as. Over time it stabalizes, you should know that, so the fact that we have players that noticeably go hot and cold is dumb as our point is that over a few months it should stabilize…
No I do not
I’m saying it is very possible that many of the guys that you are saying are underperforming aren’t truly underperforming at all.
Under what premise?
Kapler and Pena are debatable, other than that the others should all progress…
If you think Upton and Longo are this bad then why not advocate trading them?
I guess I'm thinking more in statistical terms
Are they under their average? Under what I’d expect their average to be? Yes (avg meaning the avg for any metric)
My point is due to their variability that what they are doing right now is something that should expect. It may not be something totally unexpected. Yes that means they could turn around and have a monster 1.1 OPS month. For someone like Longoria that may not even be overperforming due to his variability.
It is what I've been saying the whole time
Absolutely no different. Instead of using the present (the low portion of the interval) I used the high portion. There is literally no difference.
no, the way I read it you were implying we would finish below the mean of our expected performances
because that is what will happen if we don’t progress at all, but you’ve been saying we aren’t going to progress, meaning that we will finish below the mean. This is the first time you’ve invited the possibility of a streak going in the other way, but I doubt its full hearted as you tried, earlier, to argue about how there was no room for progression…
I was speaking statistically
That could be the root of the problem.
When I see a number lower than the mean I don’t immediately think it has to rise. I first have to determine if it is significantly different than the mean.
For example
Say in two sets of games BJ hits:
0.35
0.34
0.35
0.37
0.3
0.38
0.38
0.38
0.34
0.36
And then
0.33
0.34
0.33
0.34
0.35
0.33
0.33
0.38
0.33
0.38
The first one has an avg of .355 and the second of .344
Did he really hit any differently? Did he really hit better in the first sample? For me I wouldn’t be able to say that he did. I’d argue that there is no difference in the two samples.
Is there? I didn't run a test on them but I'd be very surprised if there is at a 95% level of confidence
Whats the p value?
And in that same example if we held the means constant and increased the variance then we would have an even higher p value that could be utterly worthless.
Now, I'm just a caveman.
Your world frightens and confuses me. I see a fly ball and think,“My god, the moon’s been knocked loose from earth’s orbit! Any moment now it will crush us and destroy life as we know it”
So you’ll have to excuse me if I think choosing the difference between a .355 average and a .344 average is a completely asinine and arbitrary way of trying to prove a point.
It isn't a matter of proving a point
It is just a matter of understanding statistics. I’m not a prof so I do it horribly. Just way too often people here say “OMG he is hitting .280 instead of .300 this week he must regress” and that just isn’t always true.
I don't think anyone here makes that point.
Every knows the difference between 280 and 300 is a couple of singles falling in. The batter hasn’t changed, his ability to hit hasn’t changed, it’s just random variance.
hm
Lee is a “longshot” to be traded and Martinez “more of a longshot,” one source says. The Red Sox, however, continue to scout and express interest in Martinez even after acquiring first baseman Adam LaRoche.
Brad Ziegler had a scoreless inning streak. Brad Ziegler had not met BJ Upton.
Ugh
3:31pm: Ricciardi told The Canadian Press that talks have become “a little bit more heated up.” He believes some teams are trying to make preliminary moves to acquire Halladay.
Brad Ziegler had a scoreless inning streak. Brad Ziegler had not met BJ Upton.
Doing so wouldn't happen before we made a move for a rotation hand.
by R.J. Anderson on Jul 23, 2009 4:45 PM EDT up reply actions
so if we made a move to get Lee or Halladay it would come before trading Kaz
or in a 3 way would make the most sense I would think.
have we heard any word on who the mysterious third team might be
I would assume it would be one of the teams involved in the Halladay talks, Phillies, Dodgers, Brewers?
what do you expect Kazmir's value is right now?
Are they going to pair him with Andy Sonnanstine for Jeff Mathis? The point is, the Rays wouldn’t sell that low and they should just wait and see if they can get help from Kazmir down the stretch.
by Daniel Berlyn on Jul 23, 2009 4:57 PM EDT up reply actions
I want Kaz to stay
That man was the beginning of who we are today. (I guess you could say CC as well but Kaz was the one who got all the good trades rolling for the Rays)
"Doesn't Manny Ramirez look like the monster from Predator??" - Will Farrell as Harry Carey
me too.
Kaz is probably my favorite player. I am going to hate seeing CC playing somewhere else, but I know it is going to happen. We just signed Kaz to an extension. I would hate to see him traded before he plays it out. Plus, trading him now would be selling low on a premier talent. I can stand seeing EJax doing so well with the Tigers. I dont think I can take Kaz returning to form with someone else, especially someone in the east.
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