The Change in Perception of BJ Upton

Disclaimer:  This is not a pro-Upton or anti-Upton post, just a matter of facts to dispute a claim.

I recently heard Wills or Andy Freed say that B.J. Upton was not a patient hitter.  They said he's not the prototypical leadoff hitter because he doesn't see a lot of pitchers.

It surprised me.  Wills and Freed are generally very good, and this seemed like a ridiculous statement.  Later on I heard someone refer to BJ as a free swinger. 

Upton's perception has changed since last year.  He's not the hitter who waits too long and looks for the perfect pitch.  He's now seen as an impatient free swinger.

BJ Upton loves the first pitch, he always has.  In 2007 Upton has swung at the first pitch 35%, then 34% in 2008, and 34% in 2009.  That's pretty consistent and hasn't changed. Could that be what makes him a free swinger?

Lets look at all MLB players with 300 PAs this year. (Using fangraphs, BB-ref, and ESPN for info).

First, let's see if Upton is a free swinger by looking at total swings.

Upton swings at 41.2% of all pitches thrown.  That puts him in the top 25% in baseball for lowest swing percentage (37th/159).

So now we know he doesn't swing a lot.  Maybe he chases ball out of the strike zone. 

Upton swings at a ball out of the zone 17.5% of the time.  That puts him in the top 7% in baseball (11th/159)

Alright,  Upton doesn't swing a lot and doesn't chase out of the zone.  Maybe he's just swinging at everything in the zone.

Upton swings at a ball in the zone 63% of the time.  That puts him in the top 33% in baseball (or bottom, depending if you think this is good or bad).

Well, maybe Upton just makes weak contact and doesn't see a lot of pitches.

Upton has seen an average of 4.10 pitches per place appearance this year.  That's in the top 18% of baseball (29th/159). 

How about the last month?

He's averaged 4.17 pitches in July.  That makes him in the top 21% in baseball for the month (46th/216)

So what does it mean?  Basically Upton is the furthest thing from a free swinger. 

Upton has not been a good offensive player this year.  His numbers are down across the board.  With that comes some misconceptions about what is wrong.  From the numbers, the one thing BJ is doing poorly is missing pitches.  His contact % of balls in the strike zone is 81.5%, that's in the bottom 8% of all of baseball.  It's pretty poor.  There are some good players right there with him (his brother, Matt Kemp, Jason Bay, Longoria, Pena, Dunn), but they rely a lot more on power than BJ does.

BJ isn't a free swinger, he's just not making contact.