David Price Rocked, Ends Roll

by R.J. Anderson on Jul 25, 2009 6:51 PM EDT

Great job by the bullpen A) keeping the score the same and B) eating just enough innings to do the job.
More on David Price in a few paragraphs, but for all the talk about his velocity being down, pitchfx currently has his four-seamer at 93.5 MPH for the season. Last year he was at 93.8. Confirmation bias or memory loss?
Right time, right place luck from Carlos Pena and Willy Aybar, especially in the ninth. Scott Downs is awesome, to beat him twice in two days is pretty unusual, but here we are.
Speaking of which, the Rays are guaranteed six wins on this 10 game road trip. Realistically, you can't expect to sweep a team, but if they can, 7-3 is absolutely wonderful. It's funny how quickly a team propels you over a perfect game by going out and dueling with Roy Halladay then coming back by eight runs.

Price was knocked around today. 3 IP, 18 TBF, 3 HR (on 10 fly balls), zero walks, and a strikeout. His command wasn't bad (38/56 strikes) but his location/command were horrible. Something worth noting: Price threw more curves today than he has before. Check this:

Pricelocation_medium

Lots of pitches over the middle, right? Well, Price's home runs were each on fastballs over the middle and up. As you can see here:

Pricehra_medium

Thanks to those pitches, we're now burdened with a bunch of comments calling for his demotion. He sucks. He's overrated. Hickey ruined him. Whatever. Over the last 30 days (entering today, mind you) Price's FIP is 4.47. His ERA 5.49. Yes, the walks are still up, but so are the strikeouts. We've discussed that his walk rate is going to drop (speaking of which, 3 walks in the past 70 TBF; 4.2%) but the simple truth is, over the last four weeks, he's pitched as well as James Shields.

I guess you could send him down, but he's starting to show confidence in his curve and change-up. His fastball command has and will probably always be spotty. That's what got him in trouble today, nothing else. His velocity was fine, his movement was fine, his command today was hellacious. It happens.

Start	P	TBF	BB	SO	GB%	SwStr%	Strike%
1	100	19	5	6	25	7	57
2	108	25	2	11	36.36	12.96	70.37
3	106	24	5	3	46.67	4.72	50
4	105	20	6	6	37.5	6.67	58.1
5	99	30	0	5	17.39	8.08	71.72
6	88	24	2	2	50	4.55	69.32
7	96	25	5	4	43.75	7.29	58.33
8	61	12	5	3	25	8.2	54.1
9	103	25	1	7	31.25	10.68	63.11
10	108	27	2	6	36.84	11.11	63.89
11	56	18	0	1	23.53	1.79	67.86

The home runs today will kill his FIP, his tRA, and the perception around him, but he hasn't pitched poorly as of late; in fact he's been pitching right to league average expectations. If you weren't in favor of sending him down a month ago, you definitely shouldn't be in favor now.

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Comments

I wonder if

he can actually throw a curve for a strike? I would think it will help his fastball some to keep hitters wary of the slow curve, even if it is a show me pitch.

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by therayspartyleader on Jul 25, 2009 7:10 PM EDT reply actions

Scott Downs WAS awesome--not so since his return from DL

by Raymondo on Jul 25, 2009 7:36 PM EDT reply actions

The first 2 days were fine

then its downhill

Come ON Pat the Bust, Navi can not have more homers than you

by 4QB on Jul 25, 2009 9:12 PM EDT up reply actions

You said 'entering' today

Isn’t a current update, including today more relavent?

At this point does he enter ’10 in the rotation?

Not trying to be a wise guy, but this is a valid question

by Raymondo on Jul 25, 2009 7:47 PM EDT reply actions

its 11 starts.

www.draysbay.com

by Tommy Rancel on Jul 25, 2009 8:12 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

Would you concede this much, he's not developed as quickly as the Rays would have hoped?

by Raymondo on Jul 25, 2009 8:15 PM EDT up reply actions

Im not a Rays scout.

Remember I was a supporter of leaving him in the minors.

www.draysbay.com

by Tommy Rancel on Jul 25, 2009 9:08 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

Thats the funny thing

Most of us were. Remember the talk show circuit lambasting the Rays for sending him down? WIN NOW! Those same guys will flood the radio once again this week calling for a demotion.

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by FreeZorilla on Jul 25, 2009 10:37 PM EDT up reply actions

I am not sure

that he was promoted too quickly or not. But it was not just talk show nonsense that criticized his initial demotion. At BP, both Sheehan and Kahrl were very critical, almost disdainful, of the Rays’ decision. They argued that having him in the majors could make the difference of a win or two which could be crucial in the tight race all anticipated.

The reasoning for demoting him, as I remember, was that he needed to work on command of his fastball and improving his off-speed offerings. Seems that was accurate. In my view, if those remained issues, he was not yet a better major league pitcher than Niemann or Sonnanstine or whomever else he would replace in the rotation. And therefore, it was better to have him develop in AAA than try to work it out in TB.

by bobr on Jul 26, 2009 7:39 AM EDT up reply actions

Yes he enters 2010 in the rotation.

He’s shown progress. If I would’ve included today in the question it skews my point, which is essentially: until today, he’d been pretty good as of late.

by R.J. Anderson on Jul 25, 2009 8:20 PM EDT up reply actions

What if anything is happening with the Lee deal?

by Raymondo on Jul 25, 2009 8:23 PM EDT up reply actions

Dear Toronto,

Payback = Bitch

2009 Rays Baseball: Still Kings of the Sunshine State

by JMB on Jul 25, 2009 7:51 PM EDT reply actions

Just to show y'all i'm fair and balanced, E-Jax while posting a QS

today was visited by some of his old nemesis, 4 BB 1 HR and only 2 K 7 IP

by Raymondo on Jul 25, 2009 8:22 PM EDT reply actions

Will the real Edwin Jackson please stand up.

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For the lulz

by SRQman on Jul 25, 2009 8:24 PM EDT up reply actions

6 HR in 4 outings, 19k, 15 BB

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by FreeZorilla on Jul 25, 2009 10:40 PM EDT up reply actions

Not surprised

The HRs are irrelevant, it’s the Walks. They’re starting to go way up. Just like last year.

by Transplanted on Jul 25, 2009 10:42 PM EDT up reply actions

Not irrelevent

He had been skating by with a low HR/FB%, which most likely was not sustainable.

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by FreeZorilla on Jul 25, 2009 10:47 PM EDT up reply actions

But it's the walks that would scare you

Because that was one of the biggest reasons he was the #5 here, despite all that talent.

by Transplanted on Jul 25, 2009 10:50 PM EDT up reply actions

Sure, the walks madea huge difference yr/yr

But the missing long balls made him Cy Young stat caliber

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by FreeZorilla on Jul 25, 2009 10:53 PM EDT up reply actions

So, do i get credit for calling them both ways now?

OT:McCaechen with a nice start tonite, Downs too

by Raymondo on Jul 25, 2009 10:51 PM EDT up reply actions

I've said before you're not a moron

Just too reactionary. You have very little faith beyond what the past 48 hours tells you. Thats not a good baseball mentality. You shouldn’t be able to pull up a persons comment history and find an absolute flipflop on every single player over the course of a season. You turn sides more than a WWE wrestler.

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by FreeZorilla on Jul 25, 2009 10:55 PM EDT up reply actions

I'm working on it

did you think Kennedy nailed it when he crtiqued BJ’s AB (pop out, man on 3B 1 out)?

by Raymondo on Jul 25, 2009 10:59 PM EDT up reply actions

what did he say?

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by FreeZorilla on Jul 25, 2009 11:02 PM EDT up reply actions

He chased that 2-0 pitch which changed the entire AB

And lately that’s been his problem, getting himself out of a hitter’s count

by Raymondo on Jul 25, 2009 11:06 PM EDT up reply actions

Rhyne Hughes 6-8 w/ 3 doubles during the doubleheader

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by FreeZorilla on Jul 25, 2009 10:59 PM EDT up reply actions

that's my boy

RJ doesn’t like him

by Raymondo on Jul 25, 2009 11:06 PM EDT up reply actions

Well if you think Pena strikes out too much.....

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by FreeZorilla on Jul 25, 2009 11:14 PM EDT up reply actions

I'm not sure I can explain this very well but he doesn't "look" like a ML player

He has decent size but seems a just a tad bit slow on everything compared to the guys I’ve seen through the last 6 or so years in Durham. He may make it as a back-up one day but my best guess would be that he has AAAA written all over him.

by Dbullsfan on Jul 25, 2009 11:16 PM EDT up reply actions

he's really picked it up the last year

wish Joyce would

by Raymondo on Jul 25, 2009 11:20 PM EDT up reply actions

I'm actually not that high on Joyce myself.

He may become a decent starter and while I would have rathered Hermida of course I don’t believe he was available. So Joyce was a good return at the time for Jackson (no one saw Ejax breaking out quite like he did).

by Dbullsfan on Jul 25, 2009 11:40 PM EDT up reply actions

We never should have let Nick Green go!

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For the lulz

by SRQman on Jul 25, 2009 8:23 PM EDT reply actions

Do you recall who we gave up for him?

For a year or so, it was pretty lopsided

by Raymondo on Jul 25, 2009 8:27 PM EDT up reply actions

Yanks got him for cash...

I was joking anyway

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For the lulz

by SRQman on Jul 25, 2009 8:28 PM EDT up reply actions

We traded Jorge Sosato ATL for him

Sosa had a very good season that year, while Green couldn’t hit his cap size

by Raymondo on Jul 25, 2009 8:31 PM EDT up reply actions

Oh I misread yours

anyway I was kidding….but Ty Wigginton we should have never let him go!

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For the lulz

by SRQman on Jul 25, 2009 8:33 PM EDT up reply actions

Just saying, I think some people expected more, I'm actually not one of those people, but I've never been as high on Price as everyone else

after three solid starts in Durham can we have another run with Sonny please?

Also, on the Shields thing. James Sheilds, as you know, has a track record, and over the last 30 days is only 5 starts (not counting today). You know, where Price has put up 24 innings for us to analyze. I’m not really going to be that excited over 24 innings of league average pitching, which went down after today. But I get to complain because I never wanted him up, so, crap… I don’t want to have to complain

by Navi's_Navy on Jul 25, 2009 8:29 PM EDT reply actions

but the simple truth is, over the last four weeks, he's pitched as well as James Shields.

www.raysprospects.com

by Imperialism32 on Jul 25, 2009 8:40 PM EDT reply actions

who?

by walkoffwalk on Jul 25, 2009 9:11 PM EDT up reply actions

Quoting RJ regarding David Price

by acablue on Jul 25, 2009 11:06 PM EDT up reply actions

That sounds a lot more like a rip on Shields then a compliment to Price.

I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.

by kericr on Jul 25, 2009 11:45 PM EDT up reply actions

Is Lee the scheduled SP in SEA tomorrow?

If he makes that start, this deal looks dead

by Raymondo on Jul 25, 2009 10:26 PM EDT reply actions

Why's that?

by acablue on Jul 25, 2009 11:08 PM EDT up reply actions

duh?

by Raymondo on Jul 25, 2009 11:11 PM EDT up reply actions

I think the thing we have to worry about more right now is Seattle

I’m not so sure they will be as eager to take Kazmir if Bedard is hurt and they turn into sellers. I guess a lot depends on how highly they think of Brignac and if he is still worth making the deal also if Kazmir helps they’re chance to win next season more than Morrow.

by Dbullsfan on Jul 25, 2009 11:18 PM EDT up reply actions