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Around SBN: The Slow Decline of Duke

The David Price Pitchfx Analysis (Part One)

Be warned: this is the graphs version. Latter on I'll go with numerical data.

Star-divide

What pitches is Price throwing?


Davidpricespitchesthru11starts_medium

Fastballs and sliders. Lots of them. This graph isn't taking velocity into account, but we can see some change-ups and curves throw into the mix as well. The change-ups are mixed and matched in the fastball clusters, the curves are not. See those pitches down in the lower-left quadrant? Yup, those are the spike curves. Or at least, those are the spike curves that actually broke like spike curves. We'll get to the exact numbers of each in part two, the purpose of this graph is basically to give you a feel of how the pitches break in comparison to each other. Don't be alarmed by the lack of movement in the slider either. Most sliders are straighter than fastballs; they're more or less straight lines, compare to the fastball arching path.

Where are the pitches ending up?


Davidpricekzonethru11gs_medium

This is from the catcher's perspective. So, let me answer the easier question in "Where aren't the pitches ending up?" Price has a fear of the low outside corner; meaning down and in to lefties and down away to righties. The disparity from the left-handed inside corner of the plate versus the right-handed side of the plate is striking. Either Price simply doesn't have the ability to hit that corner, or he doesn't want to.  If the former, wouldn't he have hit it by accident? If the latter, why not?

What pitches are being called strikes?


Davidpricecalledstrikesthru11_medium

The normalized strike zone has flaws, but David Price isn't facing a group of midgets every time out. He never, ever gets strikes called in the lower part of the zone. Is it because umpires think of him as the wild gunslinger with unharnessed fastballs? Price does get calls inside to righties, but again, the left-handed batter side of the plate is left untapped. That's the side Price is throwing from, in theory he should be able to pick apart righties by mixing in pitches away, and show that gusto and courage by going in on tough lefties. He doesn't though.

What pitches are being called balls?


Davidpricecalledballsthru11_medium

This is a trend. Price pounds it inside to righties but hardly to lefties. He misses up and down more than he does to the first base side of the plate. Notice that low part of the plate, talk about a squeeze job. Yes, some of those are legitimate balls against certain batters, but relative to his called strikes plot, I refuse to believe Price is getting the proper calls at the bottom of the zone that he should be.

Where is Price throwing his pitches to induce whiffs?


Davidpriceswingingstrikesthru11_medium

Tons of high pitches, some low, a lot over the middle, but few inside/away. Scroll back up to the called balls graph and look at all the borderline pitches being thrown then compare. Nobody swings at Price's borderline fastballs. Nobody. Throwing a heater away just isn't working for him. Maybe the movement hurts him, maybe the fact that batters can look away against him, I don't know, the simple fact here is that nobody is swinging at those borderline pitches.

What do we take from this?

Price simply doesn't use the first base side of the plate. Batters can sit back and look middle and inner/outer half. For righties, this means looking inside, for lefties, looking away.

Odds are it's not a strike if Price's pitch is to the bottom part of the zone.

Price can induce whiffs over the middle of the plate.

5 recs  |  Comment 11 comments |

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Good Stuff

Didn’t realize the low strike was that non-existant for Price. I had pointed out in one of his earlier starts this year his unwillingness to go inside on the lefty, and this definitely confirms it.

Is it teaching, stubbornness or fear? Those questions you pointed out, if answered at all, could change him as a pitcher.

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by Buc Wild on Jul 27, 2009 8:27 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

This really confirms that he has been being squeezed

What I’ve noticed with umpires is that they give more leeway horizontally than vertically. I’m sure this isn’t really news to anyone. With Price he is being squeezed on all sides. He only has a handful of pitches called strikes that were truly balls, but has tons of pitches on the corners called balls that were really strikes.

Also if you take a look at his usage graph and the “ball” graph you’ll notice quite a few of his right side of the plate pitches are in fact strikes that were called balls. Perhaps the fact that he never gets that pitch called is why he rarely going for it?

But yeah that bottom portion of the zone is just sick. I could understand not getting the ones on the borderline, but a lot of those pitches are significantly in the zone.

by matthan on Jul 27, 2009 8:34 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Yea, forget leeway

If its all inside the box, not on the border, thats not leeway. Thats umpires not doing their jobs. The Hernandez/Navi called strike comparison also was very interesting:

http://www.draysbay.com/2009/7/27/962933/the-david-price-pitchfx-analysis#comments
Its buried in the comments but has a big image
I’d also like to see the Ball comparison
Good stuff RJ

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Jul 27, 2009 9:09 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Great Post

It would be interesting to see a comparison to last season’s appearances (although a much smaller sample size) to see the difference in where he was attacking hitters/getting calls/etc. Being that he was so effective late last season and in the playoffs, I wonder where the differences lie. I dont understand why he would shy away from attacking lefties inside and righties away. That should be his bread and butter. Great work though!

by timmyj on Jul 27, 2009 9:30 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Wow the low zone really has disappeared this year

League walk rates are still up right? This has to be a concentrated effort by the umpires, no?

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Jul 27, 2009 11:13 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Price used to rack up quite a few HBP's in college

I wonder if that has anything to do with the not pitching inside to lefties; obviously it would not explain RH hitters.

At the time, NCAA batters were not required to make much of any effort to avoid a HBP and in general a lot of guys would camp out over the plate as a result; I would imagine this would be especially true of lefties since they didn’t have much hope of a sharp hit off Price. And it’s not like his walk rate was high or he accumulated a lot of wild pitches. I wonder if he inadvertently developed some bad habits as a reaction to the hit batters.

If so, you would think he would have adjusted his game since going pro, but keep in mind he’s just barely over 200 IP total as a professional.

Or it’s a reaction to being squeezed or a mechanical problem.

Your source for replacement level commentary

by RATW on Jul 27, 2009 10:27 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

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