The David Price Pitchfx Analysis (Part Two)
This is the pure numerical data version.
A quick glossary of terms:
Average velocity is pretty simple.
Top-end is the highest recorded speed, and bottom-end is the lowest; used on breaking/off-speed stuff.
Usage is (Pitch total/total pitches)*100
Ball is (Pitch thrown for ball amount/total amount of pitch)*100
In play is (Amount of times pitch put into play/total amount of pitch)*100
Foul is (Amount of times pitch hit/bunted foul/total amount of pitch)*100
Swinging strike is (Amount of swinging strikes on pitch/total amount of pitch)*100
N = Number of pitch type thrown
Disclaimers:
1. These usage numbers will not add up to 100%. I reclassified the pitches and some were simply too close to call either way. I don't feel comfortable just throwing them in a bucket. The sum is about 97%. So we're talking about 30 pitches.
2. Since I did this on my own, I'm not claiming perfection, but I've dealt with pitchfx enough to know the difference between a change and a fastball, a curve and a slider, and so on. There should be a good level of accuracy involved since I weeded out the ~100 or so pitches I simply didn't feel comfortable calling. This also means the usage percentages won't match up exactly with the ones on FanGraphs.
On to the numbers...
Fastball
Average velocity: 93.5 MPH
Top-end velocity: 98.6 MPH
Usage: 66.3%
Ball: 38.1%
In play: 15.1%
Foul: 19.9%
Swinging strike: 8.6%
N = 675
Slider
Average velocity: 85.4 MPH
Bottom-end velocity: 80.2 MPH
Usage: 24.1%
Ball: 35.1%
In play: 16.7%
Foul: 24.5%
Swinging strike: 6.5%
N = 245
Change-up
Average velocity: 85.4 MPH
Bottom-end velocity: 80.7 MPH
Usage: 5%
Ball: 33%
In play: 17.6%
Foul: 17.6%
Swinging strike: 9.8%
N = 51
Spike Curve
Average velocity: 76.4 MPH
Bottom-end velocity: 74 MPH
Usage: 1.3%
Ball: 84.6%
In play: 7.7%
Foul: 7.7%
Swinging strike: 0.0%
N = 13
For easier comparison:
| Pitch | Velocity | Usage | Ball | In Play | Foul | SwStr |
| FB | 93.5 | 66.3 | 38.1 | 15.1 | 19.9 | 8.6 |
| SL | 85.4 | 24.1 | 35.1 | 16.7 | 24.5 | 6.5 |
| CH | 84.5 | 5 | 33 | 17.6 | 17.6 | 9.8 |
| CU | 76.4 | 1.3 | 84.6 | 7.7 | 7.7 | 0 |
In simple terms:
- His fastball is good.
- The slider gets fouled off a lot, not a ton of swings and misses.
- He seems to be using the change-up well, at least that's what the fouls and swinging strike rate suggest.
- Zero spike curves thrown for a called or swinging strike to date. One foul strike, but wow. 85% balls? If we had a definition for a replacement level pitch, the results of this one probably qualify.
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Comments
How about a baseline?
I like the numerical form a lot, but it would be nice if we could compare his stuff to the league average marks.
F%#& Billy Beane. Actually... I kinda like Holliday
The league average baseline for starters is 6.5%
I don’t have the league average per pitch.
by R.J. Anderson on Jul 27, 2009 11:20 AM EDT up reply actions
You're talking about swing strike rate?
F%#& Billy Beane. Actually... I kinda like Holliday
by vivaelpujols on Jul 27, 2009 11:26 AM EDT up reply actions
So, nothing has changed from the start - throw more changeups
Who’s most responsible for pitch selection? Ultimately it’s got to be VJ, right?
So long, Sweet Lime!
Regarding the Pt. 1 claim that he's getting squeezed at the bottom of the strike zone
I do believe strike zones vary among different pitchers, but how does this called strike distribution differ from other pitchers? My perception is that umpires almost never correctly call a high strike, but maybe my perception is wrong.
Is it possible they are missing low strikes on many (or most) pitchers. I know I saw several such calls this road trip: am I right Mr. Wheeler?
Here's Shields called strikes the last 6 starts.

by R.J. Anderson on Jul 27, 2009 10:30 AM EDT up reply actions
Maybe its time to adjust the normalized strike zone?
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by FreeZorilla on Jul 27, 2009 10:34 AM EDT up reply actions
Shields gets a ton of whiffs in the bottom of the zone.
This is just off his change:

Price doesn’t get whiffs that low.
by R.J. Anderson on Jul 27, 2009 10:39 AM EDT up reply actions
Right, but no called strikes
Maybe its time to formally change the expectations of a called pitch at the bottom of the zone
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by FreeZorilla on Jul 27, 2009 10:42 AM EDT up reply actions
Wouldn't the count have an impact on that?
If Shields is throwing two strike low changeups, wouldn’t the odds be great that he’d getting a swing and miss?
If price is behind in the count and throwing low fastballs/sliders, why would the batter chase?
I’m not sure if you can divide the chart by count, but it seems like Price is having to bring the ball up to almost guarantee a strike.
RJ, do you have readily available % of changeups by chronological start?
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What's the deal with Jake McGee?
Are they just being cautious?
Also does Townsend have a chance?
Yes.
Starts Ch%
1 1
2 1.85
3 0
4 0
5 9.09
6 2.27
7 4.16
8 19.67
9 0
10 8.33
11 12.5
by R.J. Anderson on Jul 27, 2009 10:43 AM EDT up reply actions
He was consistently falling behind in that game
http://www.draysbay.com/2009/7/7/940896/david-price-ytd-facts
8 batters tooks a first strike, the other 4 crushed 2-0 pitches
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by FreeZorilla on Jul 27, 2009 10:48 AM EDT up reply actions
It doesn't seem to have a clear correlation to success.
Starts 2/9 were his best and he barely threw it, starts 11 and 8 were pretty awful and he threw it the most.
by R.J. Anderson on Jul 27, 2009 10:45 AM EDT up reply actions
So maybe he shouldn't throw it more
Probably just pick better spots when he decides to throw it
by nolesblogger on Jul 27, 2009 10:49 AM EDT up reply actions
He does not throw it enough for a correlation, but I'm pleased to see the trend
3 of 4 in double figures is nice
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by FreeZorilla on Jul 27, 2009 10:49 AM EDT up reply actions
It cant be a good thing that his change and slider have the exact same average velocity
right? I would guess that would lead to Price only using the change off of his fastball or vice versa? It would be nice to be able to use that change off the slider while still being able to mess with a batters timing. Now Im not an expert on PitchFx, but I do know that the change is supposed to look more like a fastball to hitters, and according to the graphs, they break similarly, but wouldnt that really boost Price’s repertoire if he could work his change in around his slider? It just seems to me that the pitches being that similar in speed would really limit Price. Maybe Im looking to much into that, because the swing and misses and fouls off the changeup would indicate that its doing its job, but maybe differentiating more in speed would at least help the slider?
All in all, good stuff RJ.
by BJ the Bossman on Jul 27, 2009 10:10 AM EDT reply actions
Regarding where Price gets his whiffs on his pitches
Pretty much of his swingings and misses are on high fastballs. Price has the lowest O-Swing% on the the Rays.
by therayspartyleader on Jul 27, 2009 11:15 AM EDT reply actions
Wow
Just Wow. So out of all this can we assume that price tries to work mostly within the strike zone and high? Sort of like balfour- if balf had a good slider or a average change.
Come ON Pat the Bust, Navi can not have more homers than you
Well those are just the swinging strikes
but Price tends to throw the fastball up in the strikezone, which hurts him when doesn’t change the vertical location much like what happened on Saturday.
by therayspartyleader on Jul 27, 2009 11:24 AM EDT up reply actions
Seems to me his Slider has been a big part of the problem this year
Just league average swinging strikes
and according to Fangraphs his wSL/C is -2.31
wSL/C is runs above average per 100 pitches for the slider
Kap-rilla???

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