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Around SBN: Win or Lose, Boston Celtics' New Big 3 Era A Success

The David Price Pitchfx Analysis (Part Two)

This is the pure numerical data version.

A quick glossary of terms:

Average velocity is pretty simple.

Top-end is the highest recorded speed, and bottom-end is the lowest; used on breaking/off-speed stuff.

Usage is (Pitch total/total pitches)*100

Ball is (Pitch thrown for ball amount/total amount of pitch)*100

In play is (Amount of times pitch put into play/total amount of pitch)*100

Foul is (Amount of times pitch hit/bunted foul/total amount of pitch)*100

Swinging strike is (Amount of swinging strikes on pitch/total amount of pitch)*100

N = Number of pitch type thrown

Disclaimers:

1. These usage numbers will not add up to 100%. I reclassified the pitches and some were simply too close to call either way. I don't feel comfortable just throwing them in a bucket. The sum is about 97%. So we're talking about 30 pitches.

2. Since I did this on my own, I'm not claiming perfection, but I've dealt with pitchfx enough to know the difference between a change and a fastball, a curve and a slider, and so on. There should be a good level of accuracy involved since I weeded out the ~100 or so pitches I simply didn't feel comfortable calling.  This also means the usage percentages won't match up exactly with the ones on FanGraphs.

On to the numbers...

Star-divide

Fastball

Average velocity: 93.5 MPH

Top-end velocity: 98.6 MPH

Usage: 66.3%

Ball: 38.1%

In play: 15.1%

Foul: 19.9%

Swinging strike: 8.6%

N = 675

Slider

Average velocity: 85.4 MPH

Bottom-end velocity: 80.2 MPH

Usage: 24.1%

Ball: 35.1%

In play: 16.7%

Foul: 24.5%

Swinging strike: 6.5%

N = 245

Change-up

Average velocity: 85.4 MPH

Bottom-end velocity: 80.7 MPH

Usage: 5%

Ball:  33%

In play: 17.6%

Foul: 17.6%

Swinging strike: 9.8%

N = 51

Spike Curve

Average velocity: 76.4 MPH

Bottom-end velocity: 74 MPH

Usage: 1.3%

Ball:  84.6%

In play: 7.7%

Foul:  7.7%

Swinging strike: 0.0%

N = 13

For easier comparison:

 

Pitch Velocity Usage Ball In Play Foul SwStr
FB 93.5 66.3 38.1 15.1 19.9 8.6
SL 85.4 24.1 35.1 16.7 24.5 6.5
CH 84.5 5 33 17.6 17.6 9.8
CU 76.4 1.3 84.6 7.7 7.7 0

 

In simple terms:

- His fastball is good.

- The slider gets fouled off a lot, not a ton of swings and misses.

- He seems to be using the change-up well, at least that's what the fouls and swinging strike rate suggest.

- Zero spike curves thrown for a called or swinging strike to date. One foul strike, but wow. 85% balls? If we had a definition for a replacement level pitch, the results of this one probably qualify.

Comment 39 comments  |  5 recs  | 

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So, nothing has changed from the start - throw more changeups

Who’s most responsible for pitch selection? Ultimately it’s got to be VJ, right?

So long, Sweet Lime!

by PlayOnWords on Jul 27, 2009 7:20 AM EDT reply actions  

Regarding the Pt. 1 claim that he's getting squeezed at the bottom of the strike zone

I do believe strike zones vary among different pitchers, but how does this called strike distribution differ from other pitchers? My perception is that umpires almost never correctly call a high strike, but maybe my perception is wrong.
Is it possible they are missing low strikes on many (or most) pitchers. I know I saw several such calls this road trip: am I right Mr. Wheeler?

by Deepdoodle on Jul 27, 2009 7:30 AM EDT reply actions  

Shields gets a ton of whiffs in the bottom of the zone.

This is just off his change:

Price doesn’t get whiffs that low.

by R.J. Anderson on Jul 27, 2009 10:39 AM EDT up reply actions  

Right, but no called strikes

Maybe its time to formally change the expectations of a called pitch at the bottom of the zone

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Jul 27, 2009 10:42 AM EDT up reply actions  

Wouldn't the count have an impact on that?

If Shields is throwing two strike low changeups, wouldn’t the odds be great that he’d getting a swing and miss?

If price is behind in the count and throwing low fastballs/sliders, why would the batter chase?

I’m not sure if you can divide the chart by count, but it seems like Price is having to bring the ball up to almost guarantee a strike.

by tallyray on Jul 27, 2009 10:51 AM EDT up reply actions  

What's the deal with Jake McGee?

Are they just being cautious?

Also does Townsend have a chance?

by Raymondo on Jul 27, 2009 9:41 AM EDT up reply actions  

Yes.

Starts Ch%
1 1
2 1.85
3 0
4 0
5 9.09
6 2.27
7 4.16
8 19.67
9 0
10 8.33
11 12.5

by R.J. Anderson on Jul 27, 2009 10:43 AM EDT up reply actions  

It cant be a good thing that his change and slider have the exact same average velocity

right? I would guess that would lead to Price only using the change off of his fastball or vice versa? It would be nice to be able to use that change off the slider while still being able to mess with a batters timing. Now Im not an expert on PitchFx, but I do know that the change is supposed to look more like a fastball to hitters, and according to the graphs, they break similarly, but wouldnt that really boost Price’s repertoire if he could work his change in around his slider? It just seems to me that the pitches being that similar in speed would really limit Price. Maybe Im looking to much into that, because the swing and misses and fouls off the changeup would indicate that its doing its job, but maybe differentiating more in speed would at least help the slider?
All in all, good stuff RJ.

by BJ the Bossman on Jul 27, 2009 10:10 AM EDT reply actions  

Regarding where Price gets his whiffs on his pitches

Pretty much of his swingings and misses are on high fastballs. Price has the lowest O-Swing% on the the Rays.

by therayspartyleader on Jul 27, 2009 11:15 AM EDT reply actions  

Wow

Just Wow. So out of all this can we assume that price tries to work mostly within the strike zone and high? Sort of like balfour- if balf had a good slider or a average change.

Come ON Pat the Bust, Navi can not have more homers than you

by 4QB on Jul 27, 2009 11:21 AM EDT up reply actions  

Well those are just the swinging strikes

but Price tends to throw the fastball up in the strikezone, which hurts him when doesn’t change the vertical location much like what happened on Saturday.

by therayspartyleader on Jul 27, 2009 11:24 AM EDT up reply actions  

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