7/27 Post-Game: New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays
by R.J. Anderson on Jul 27, 2009 10:33 PM EDT
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not a great way to allieviate pain
wins do that
"Doesn't Manny Ramirez look like the monster from Predator??" - Will Farrell as Harry Carey
by Gone Phishing on Jul 27, 2009 10:36 PM EDT up reply actions
Can Lee DH when he doesn't pitch?
Why do you think his W total is so low?
They can’t score runs for him
RYAN GARKO HAS CLEANED OUT HIS LOCKER
for a trip to the SF Giants
"Doesn't Manny Ramirez look like the monster from Predator??" - Will Farrell as Harry Carey
Doesn't anyone realize this?!
NO Victor Martinez! Garko was their 1st baseman……now they need Martinez to play there.
This shuts the door on the Rays!!! Look at the depth charts!
"Doesn't Manny Ramirez look like the monster from Predator??" - Will Farrell as Harry Carey
by Gone Phishing on Jul 27, 2009 10:42 PM EDT up reply actions
WRONG
Andy Marte, a.k.a. Agent M, will take most of the 1B playing time.
You are reading my signature.
they cant prove that
"Doesn't Manny Ramirez look like the monster from Predator??" - Will Farrell as Harry Carey
by Gone Phishing on Jul 27, 2009 11:03 PM EDT up reply actions
well
Kazmir tend to make New York teams sad
by RollingWave on Jul 27, 2009 11:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Man I want to see a blockbuster trade as much as anyone
But on a real tight budget would you trade Davis or Hellickson with your team 7.5 out of first place? Yes, there’s lots of games left but a trade would have to make us BETTER than NY and BOS or else it doesn’t make sense. Does Cliff Lee and VMart make us better than those two teams?
This is why Friedman is smarter than I, but I am getting skeptical of our team being a traditional “buyer” at the break.
I don't always drink beer, but when I do, I prefer to drink WAY too much of it.
I've been begging to buy and sell for a good month and a half now.
by R.J. Anderson on Jul 27, 2009 10:46 PM EDT up reply actions
I guess I'll write about playof probability tomorrow.
by R.J. Anderson on Jul 27, 2009 10:48 PM EDT up reply actions
True
If we trade for Lee we have control through 2101
2009 Rays Baseball: Still Kings of the Sunshine State
Off hand, not sure.
I’m going to sketch some things out.
by R.J. Anderson on Jul 27, 2009 10:55 PM EDT up reply actions
That'd be what, 10B in the Loss column for the East and 8 in the WC
Not good, but wouldn’t be surprised if something was done, even to lose some payroll like Shouse or something
by Transplanted on Jul 27, 2009 10:52 PM EDT up reply actions
perhaps we should make a move
but it might be a cost cutting move and not the type of thing that helps us win this year.
I don't always drink beer, but when I do, I prefer to drink WAY too much of it.
by stpetelawyer on Jul 27, 2009 10:54 PM EDT up reply actions
oops, guess i was late on this one
I don't always drink beer, but when I do, I prefer to drink WAY too much of it.
by stpetelawyer on Jul 27, 2009 10:55 PM EDT up reply actions
This should have been the first and only response to that idiotic comment.
I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.
how is questioning whether to buy expensive short term players or keep our prospects idiotic?
I don't always drink beer, but when I do, I prefer to drink WAY too much of it.
by stpetelawyer on Jul 27, 2009 11:01 PM EDT up reply actions
The questioning of it isn't idiotic. The FUD spread by implying that the team can only make the playoffs by winning the division is.
And since Boston right now has only two legitimate starting pitchers, It isn’t unreasonable to think that Boston might have some problems if the best pitcher they can pick up is Bronson Arroyo.
I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.
I guess the same question can be posed considering that we are 5 out of the Wildcard race
and I’m not implying that we can’t make that up, because I do think BOS is vulnerable, as you say, but how big a gamble is it with a tight payroll?
do you think that adding Cliff Lee makes us BOS? Enough to pass them in the standings? I’m not sure.
I don't always drink beer, but when I do, I prefer to drink WAY too much of it.
by stpetelawyer on Jul 27, 2009 11:08 PM EDT up reply actions
When you're done combing over the Rays financial books, please make copies and distribute it among the masses so that we can clearly understand the financial strain Sternberg finds himself in.
Attempting to justify against a trade solely on financial reasons is stupid unless you’re Stewart Sternberg.
I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.
i thought sternberg publically said that our payroll was stretched as far as it could go
ignoring financial considerations of a trade is stupid.
and another thing – why are you being such a dick?
I don't always drink beer, but when I do, I prefer to drink WAY too much of it.
by stpetelawyer on Jul 27, 2009 11:11 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm not ignoring them. You're not providing any kind of argument against the trade other than, 'we can't afford it'.
The fact is, you’re not in a position to make that call.
As for being a dick, it’s what I do. Don’t take it personally.
I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.
I'll lay out the argument a bit simpler for you and try not to use complex sentences or fancy words to confuse you.
I really question whether adding cliff lee makes us good enough to make the playoffs. It might, but I hardly think its even “probable.” AND, with alleged budget constraints (according to Sternberg’s comments) such a risk hardly seems worth it. We need to free up $$ for arbitration eligible players this offseason. If we had a real good chance to win the whole thing this year, then yes – make the deal. I don’t think the deal being talked about makes us a probable playoff contender. There, you don’t have to agree, but there is an argument in there. It’s the same argument stated earlier, but maybe a bit clearer.
I don't always drink beer, but when I do, I prefer to drink WAY too much of it.
by stpetelawyer on Jul 27, 2009 11:20 PM EDT up reply actions
Trading Kazmir for Lee (in effect) actually alleviates some budget concerns.
It frees Kaz’s salary in 2011 and 2012. ~25 mil.
by R.J. Anderson on Jul 27, 2009 11:23 PM EDT up reply actions
To be fair, those are option years
Brad Ziegler had a scoreless inning streak. Brad Ziegler had not met BJ Upton.
True, but if we decline those option years, we likely aren't getting comp picks.
by R.J. Anderson on Jul 27, 2009 11:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Would we be getting comp picks anyway?
Brad Ziegler had a scoreless inning streak. Brad Ziegler had not met BJ Upton.
and yes, i'm grumpy after this loss and need to not take having my comment called "idiotic" personally
i apologize for the tone of this past comment and i’m headed to bed
I don't always drink beer, but when I do, I prefer to drink WAY too much of it.
by stpetelawyer on Jul 27, 2009 11:23 PM EDT up reply actions
That's not what you said.
But on a real tight budget would you trade Davis or Hellickson with your team 7.5 out of first place? Yes, there’s lots of games left but a trade would have to make us BETTER than NY and BOS or else it doesn’t make sense. Does Cliff Lee and VMart make us better than those two teams?
This is why Friedman is smarter than I, but I am getting skeptical of our team being a traditional "buyer" at the break.
Tell me, where in that statement does it say that you don’t think the Rays can make the playoffs by pulling that trade? Considering you’re skeptical about the Rays being better then both ‘Boston AND New York,’ not Boston, New York, Texas, OR Anaheim, you’re concerned about winning the division, not making the playoffs.
I am probably not the person you want to challenge to a contest on reading comprehension.
Regardless, on this particular point, you’re probably right. Even with Boston’s shoddy rotation, I don’t think this trade would make the team good enough to win a playoff spot. Cliff Lee and V-Mart aren’t going to make the team hit lefties considerably better, and they’re not going to make the team much more formidable on the road.
I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.
alright captain reading comprehension
I said this -
“do you think that adding Cliff Lee makes us BOS? Enough to pass them in the standings? I’m not sure.”
BEFORE you said I didn’t make an argument. So the argument was layed out, you just chose to ignore it.
I don't always drink beer, but when I do, I prefer to drink WAY too much of it.
by stpetelawyer on Jul 27, 2009 11:31 PM EDT up reply actions
and this is actually kind of fun now but the Ambien is taking hold and I see my grammar going downhill...quickly
I don't always drink beer, but when I do, I prefer to drink WAY too much of it.
by stpetelawyer on Jul 27, 2009 11:33 PM EDT up reply actions
Also, you gave a topic for the OT thread tomorrow, so thanks.
I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.
Not in this thread you didn't. Doesn't matter. You don't want to discuss this anymore anyway.q
I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.
It's always been about LT success
And to compete in the AL East it’s about depth. I find it unlikely the Rays will make a splash. They’ve proven they prefer depth and cost control as their strategy to compete in the AL East. It’s not glamorous, or exciting, but it offers what the FO believes is the best risk/reward given what they’re given to work with. You don’t mortgage the future unless you can make a killing, and the Rays aren’t in the greatest position to make a killing.
I’m sure when RJ makes his playoffs probability post it will show that the Rays’ odds have fallen the past week. What the team is interested in, is just staying tight enough to keep the race interesting, that way they can look back on the season and say they tried, but came up just a little short. You have to figure they’re calculating the expected revenues of a playoff appearance, vs the expected revenues of building a fanbase. In fact, I’d almost argue the difference between making the playoffs and not making the playoffs but keeping it close is a lot closer than people think in terms of generating LT success or LT interest in the team. (please don’t use the if we win the WS argument)
Sure Lee and Vmart will be under our control for 2010, but you’re giving up prospects. Do you trust your scouting dept for type A, or the other potential prospects next year if we fall out of the race. If they’re struggling to land Buchholz/Davis, imagine what the haul would be next year. The way the market is now, prospects are at a premium, and will probably remain so for the foreseeable future. I don’t see them reducing their depth, given the way the organization has been run. Depth gives them more options, lowers the impact of a freak injury affecting your team, essentially lowering variance. And its not like these prospects won’t also accrue value within the next few years either.
Hey i’d love to see a trade, but don’t get your hopes up. I figure it was a smokescreen to drive the price up for BOS/NYY, although now that we’re no longer as close as before, it doesn’t seem as believable as before.
we don’t NEED to make the playoffs, it’s not expected by our fanbase, and will be forgiven if the FO plays smart, put out a good product and build your base, that’s all they can ever really hope for
Blog: www.lostinsoxcountry.com
find it unlikely the Rays will make a splash. They’ve proven they prefer depth and cost control as their strategy to compete in the AL East.
…Jason Bay?
Brad Ziegler had a scoreless inning streak. Brad Ziegler had not met BJ Upton.
sentence after that
“unless they can make a killing”
Bay would have been an excellent calculated risk given that he was underrated, underpriced, and favorable to an extension. They were also in first at the time right?
Blog: www.lostinsoxcountry.com
Being in first with the comfortable amount we were at the time is more of a reason to make a trade now, and not then.
Brad Ziegler had a scoreless inning streak. Brad Ziegler had not met BJ Upton.
Agree to Disagree
At that point you’re expected playoff odds are probably pretty good, adding Bay is icing for the title run. in essence, a killing.
Adding Lee maybe ups our odds to 50%? more? less? Is that worth giving up xyz prospects? I don’t necessarily think so, and I’d imagine the FO doesn’t either. At this point it’s a gamble. I’m sure the FO has their odds.
Make moves when the odds in your favor and when you can win, otherwise it’s almost like gambling
Blog: www.lostinsoxcountry.com
Playoffs are pretty much a crapshoot.
Brad Ziegler had a scoreless inning streak. Brad Ziegler had not met BJ Upton.
Lee would add them to about 50%, and then add 6 WAR for next year.
Would I give up Kaz-Davis-Barnese-Whatever for that? yes.
Brad Ziegler had a scoreless inning streak. Brad Ziegler had not met BJ Upton.
I'd do a Victor Wang style Trade Eval if I weren't lazy
but I am.
Hey, I’d love to see Lee for the Rays too, but for a coin Flip + next year at the cost of depth + valuable prospects, you have to figure the farther back we slip, the less likely this will happen.
Blog: www.lostinsoxcountry.com
50% is deceiving
He increases their chance from 20% to 30%
50% could also be going from 5% to 7.5%
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
But getting there isn't necessarily
and Bay definitely stacks both the AL run and the playoff odds in our favor
Blog: www.lostinsoxcountry.com
We were pretty much a shoo-in for at LEAST the wild card at that point.
Brad Ziegler had a scoreless inning streak. Brad Ziegler had not met BJ Upton.
Probably
but extra odds, + 4-6 WAR from Bay this year are probably worth the cost. Risk/Reward what not.
Hey! I’m not saying trading for Lee is good or bad. I’m saying I wouldn’t do it given the cost, and that I doubt the FO would too, but that’s just me.
Blog: www.lostinsoxcountry.com
Depends on the cost
Moore/Hellboy = No
Davis/Brignac = Yes
Brad Ziegler had a scoreless inning streak. Brad Ziegler had not met BJ Upton.
like most things in life
well we’re not necessarily privy to that information are we. Actually, we have next to nothing compared to what the FO probably has.
I’m sure if the FO thinks it’s worth it, they’ll do it. I wouldn’t, you would. Given what I know, and my own opinions, and the way I see the baseball market evolving, I place a premium on prospects and depth. I’m probably more conservative than most when it comes to pulling triggers on trades. It would appear to be the better long term play given our circumstances.
Blog: www.lostinsoxcountry.com
I have no delusions about the team pulling off the trade.
And I’m already on record in saying that I already think the team isn’t making the playoffs. I’m just damn tired of hearing people saying the reason why the team won’t do anything is because of cost concerns. It’s a lazy cop-out of an argument. Obviously you’re going a bit more in depth in skepticism about potential future depth, but the general ‘the team can’t afford this player’ argument is tired.
I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.
Unfortnately, in a nutshell, that statement's basically true
While at least for 1-2 years they can certainly defer revenue or value for a title run, it’s not something that’s feasible in the long run, which ultimately ties back to affording a player because the market is smaller. So they really can’t make splashes recklessly.
It’s why Boston or NY can take on players with salaries without giving up too much because they know they can afford to take the large hit and still turn a profit in current or future years.
It’s simple really. Just ask them why THEY don’t buy (insert pricey product here), its because they know that if they do, they’ll get bitten in the ass later down the road. That’s why the Rays don’t do anything. Not that they can’t, but because it’s just not a good long term play.
Alternatively, I also offer, “if you find me $X million for him, we’ll gladly get him, but money doesn’t grow on trees, unfortunately”
Blog: www.lostinsoxcountry.com
ok then, we either have to play better than BOS or a lot better than NY to catch them
that work for you?
I don't always drink beer, but when I do, I prefer to drink WAY too much of it.
by stpetelawyer on Jul 27, 2009 11:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Why does this name sound familiar?
Jonny Gomes launched a pair of home runs as the Reds defeated the Padres 6-4 on Monday night.
VAULTED PADRES TEAM
With their 4 talented players
by Transplanted on Jul 27, 2009 10:53 PM EDT up reply actions
If we get swept, first of all that would be pretty lame, but
it’ll be Katie bar the door
Anyone not under control past 2010 or high priced could go
Hope not but even 2/3 losses could be deadly
I just wish we could play meaningful games in late SEP, even if we miss
Look, we all know -- or should -- that we're facing an uphill battle that requires multi-facets:
1. Some luck
2. A Lee/Martinez type acquisition
3. Boston standing pat
Even if we fall short, which yeah the odds are for that, don’t write this season off or ignore the games. Things are good. Nobody is happy. You only get 162 games a year, no sense in letting a 90 win season piss you off to the point you regret missing a few games in January.
by R.J. Anderson on Jul 27, 2009 11:12 PM EDT up reply actions
We had a 6-4 road trip against two decent teams and one awful team.
Soon we have to play BOS and we’re playing NYA, those are the two best teams in baseball. We’re very good, but so are they. Someone has to win 2 of 3.
by R.J. Anderson on Jul 27, 2009 11:16 PM EDT up reply actions
We will.
It’s BABIP and lack of home runs.
by R.J. Anderson on Jul 27, 2009 11:22 PM EDT up reply actions
I'd love to see a comparison of how we far in these low scoring games
Given we scored some runs later, but it seems we don’t see a lot of run production in game where we are outscored early.
Besides KC series.
This needs clarification
I think we have been really unlucky in run production this year, given the number of times we have destroyed teams, and the number we have scored very few runs.
I'm not sure of the exact number
but I would guess sense the WC was brought into play the team leading on Aug 1. wins it less than 1/2 the time. One of the things that makes the WC so special and why a lot of times a WC team makes the WS is because teams get hot and win it and carry that momentum into the playoffs. Yes we have been struggling in July but we have the talent and schedule to turn in a 20-7 August, especially if we can add a Lee and/or Martinez.
Winning 74% of your games in any month constitutes some luck.
by R.J. Anderson on Jul 27, 2009 11:20 PM EDT up reply actions
The schedule is nicely set up
yea it won’t be easy and the hitters are due to come around at some point and individuals (longo, Pena, BJ, CC, mainly) will get hot (call it regression or w/e these things just seem to find a way to even themselves out) and we are spending most of the month at home and against teams that don’t have great pitching.
Also
Baseball is supposed to be entertainment.
If you can’t handle your team losing, it might be worthwhile to find another hobby.
I do not think we are playoff bound considering how things are going, but who knows. I certainly don’t think a trade is going to do the trick. I think it depends on the current roster turning things around.
I don't like losing and we've endured enough to appreciate seasons like these rather than bemoan them.
Three years ago, I would’ve killed for a 90 win season. Now we’re on pace for about that and nobody is happy.
by R.J. Anderson on Jul 27, 2009 11:47 PM EDT up reply actions
Exactly.
We have the player with the most HR in the AL.
We WERE the highest scoring team in the AL.
A lot of good can still come out of this season.
this, we are 8 games over .500 and have a team set up for the next 5 years to be very good
and people want a firesale and are freaking out, only 4 teams out of every league make the playoff’s so not every good team is going to get in. Are we an underdog to make the playoff’s this year, yes, are we completely out of it, no. Thankfully AF isn’t as quick triggered as some of the people on here and will do or won’t do whatever he feels will make this team a playoff contender not only this year but the future as well. If that is trading Kazmir and getting Lee, than I’m sure he will do all he can to make that happen. If it is to sit back and stay pat, than he will do that too. I remember last year at the Trade Deadline, everyone thought we were done because AF wouldn’t pull the trigger on a deal for Bay and he wen’t to Boston. Guess what, we still made the WS and still have Reid Brignac, who is considered by some to be the best SS prospect in baseball and if not the best is one of the top 3. So whatever happens over the next few days is going to happen and we will move on from there with the hopes of making the playoff’s this year and the feeling that no matter what happens this year we are going to be a competitive ball club for the entire foreseeable future and that folks is something that has never been able to happen before as a Rays fan and everyone should feel pretty damn happy about that.
You're an idiot
It’s like McCarthyism.. Oh you’re not a fan! Whatever. All I’m saying is you have to be able to take the good and the bad and not punch a wall.
this cheered me up for a second.
keithlaw: Except for the fact that he’s terrible, Bronson Arroyo would be a great pickup for any club!
Price, Garza and Shields ... then its wide open
I don't always drink beer, but when I do, I prefer to drink WAY too much of it.
by stpetelawyer on Jul 27, 2009 11:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Only one of those does anything for me
Don’t know what happened to Shields
Low K high HR make for bad starts
Teams see a glaring pattern with his stuff
He needs to change it up
by Transplanted on Jul 27, 2009 11:13 PM EDT up reply actions
We have to do something with our logjam at SP.
If we don’t then we are going to have to end up trading these guys for less than market value because teams know we are in a bind. Trading for Lee gives us an excellent short term return and gives us return next year (depending on what avenue we take). The problem is if we just hold Kaz, Davis, Hellboy etc then something really has to give. We just cant throw them in the bullpen. That would be a waste of value. And we don’t want to give them away either. This is a good time to trim the number. If we are able to add an elite arm and then get the picks (or make a trade next year) then by all means do it.
I think many folks need to get out of the buy/sell ESPN mindset. It is all about the organization. Teams try to do what is best for their organization. Of course they take into account time value returns, but we need to stop thinking in terms if we trade a major league player we are selling and if we trade a minor league guy we are buying. It is all about shifting of assets to make the organization the strongest.
by matthan on Jul 28, 2009 12:25 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
People also need to get off the idea that you can only 'buy' OR 'sell'.
by R.J. Anderson on Jul 28, 2009 12:37 AM EDT up reply actions
Good point
were the Yanks sellers when they traded Randy Johnson and Sheff? No, they were retooling.
By the way, hi all. Been a while – life happens. Hope you all are well. Fun times at the deadline eh?
by nyyfaninlaaland on Jul 28, 2009 1:54 AM EDT up reply actions
well said
I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.
by Sandy Kazmir on Jul 28, 2009 3:38 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
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