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Around SBN: The Most Dangerous Division in Sports

Series Preview: 7/27-7/29 New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays

Newest_tiny by R.J. Anderson on

7/27: A.J. Burnett vs. James Shields (7:08 FSF)

7/28: CC Sabathia vs. Scott Kazmir (7:08 FSF)

7/29:  Joba Chamberlain vs. Matt Garza (7:08 SS/ESPN)

Our playoff odds sit somewhere between 25-35%. I really don't need to explain how big winning this series is.

AL East Standings

W L PCT GB STRK
New York 61 38 .616 0 Won 2
Boston 58 40 .591 2.5 Won 1
Tampa Bay 54 46 .540 7.5 Lost 2
Toronto 49 51 .490 12.5 Won 2
Baltimore 42 56 .428 18.5 Lost 1

(updated 7.28.2009 at 10:10 AM EDT)



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Comments

Display:

This seems early.

I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.

by kericr on Jul 28, 2009 10:36 AM EDT reply actions  

I laughed

suttle but funny

Kap-rilla???

by Sveet on Jul 28, 2009 10:57 AM EDT up reply actions  

I think you mean the tbt* Party Deck

Fast News You Can Use

Support the Type Strong Movement, Like This Little Lady Does
Let's work together to combat Terminal Rocco Disease.

by Top Gun Numba 1 on Jul 28, 2009 11:10 AM EDT up reply actions  

But no sand, no water, no $1 beers.

It’s not the beach anymore.

I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.

by kericr on Jul 28, 2009 11:53 AM EDT up reply actions  

Eh..

They lost the sponsorship on the $1 beer thing. I personally hated it. I go to games to watch them, not to spend 45 minutes in line waiting to pay $2 for a couple of shot glasses filled with Bud Light.

I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.

by kericr on Jul 28, 2009 11:55 AM EDT up reply actions  

I hope they remove your beatboxing contract

Support the Type Strong Movement, Like This Little Lady Does
Let's work together to combat Terminal Rocco Disease.

by Top Gun Numba 1 on Jul 28, 2009 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions  

A bit of a bait--yes

but there was post after post after they re-loaded how bad their defense was and how that would be the edge we needed

by Raymondo on Jul 28, 2009 11:00 AM EDT up reply actions  

Well, his range has improved.

His UZR right now is 4.4, UZR/150 8.7.

He hasn’t had a plus defensive year since 2002, which as far as UZR goes back.

Apparently the Yanks had him work on his lateral movement in the off season. You had Tex on the end of his throws instead of Giambi, and you’ve got a shortstop living up to his reputation.

by Suttree on Jul 28, 2009 11:44 AM EDT up reply actions  

Joe Chat at it's finest

Dave (Tampa)

Joe, is there any way the Rays can be successful this year if they continue to struggle against left-handed pitching?

Joe Morgan (11:04 AM)

I think the Rays problem more than left-handed pitching is they’re short picthing. They traded Edwin Jackson and Sonanstine was sent to the minor leagues. That’s their big problem. I’m more about starting pitching than a lot of other things. They thought they had a lot of starting pitching and it turns out they don’t have as much as they had. Last year, it seems guys had career years and not their normal years.

"I want to live in a world where a solo homerun in the 2nd inning counts as much as a solo homerun in the 8th."

by RaysnNoles on Jul 28, 2009 11:32 AM EDT reply actions  

It was not 'that' terrible

…but he completely avoided the question.

"I want to live in a world where a solo homerun in the 2nd inning counts as much as a solo homerun in the 8th."

by RaysnNoles on Jul 28, 2009 11:36 AM EDT up reply actions  

True

I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.

by kericr on Jul 28, 2009 11:39 AM EDT up reply actions  

Meh

Edwin is a lazy move to pick on and Sonny was a casualty of the numbers game. Maybe we should’ve left Price at Durham. If there’s fault to be had, its there.

So long, Sweet Lime!

by PlayOnWords on Jul 28, 2009 11:39 AM EDT up reply actions  

than ppl would blame struggles on that

sonny wasn’t exactly on pace for a cy young

by Dbullsfan on Jul 28, 2009 11:43 AM EDT up reply actions  

i agree that he got called up too soon, i've said that since the start

but price in the rotation instead of sonny is far from our biggest problem

by Dbullsfan on Jul 28, 2009 11:47 AM EDT up reply actions  

Well no doikie.

I was addressing Joe Morgan’s expert opinion on our lil’ ballclub.

So long, Sweet Lime!

by PlayOnWords on Jul 28, 2009 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions  

gotcha

Joe Morgan is an idiot, and makes Sunday night baseball nearly unwatchable

by Dbullsfan on Jul 28, 2009 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions  

So is steve phillips

god, i hate that guy.

Come ON Pat the Bust, Navi can not have more homers than you

by 4QB on Jul 28, 2009 11:56 AM EDT up reply actions  

ESPN's coverage of baseball

from ‘Baseball Tonight’ to live games is terrible.

"I want to live in a world where a solo homerun in the 2nd inning counts as much as a solo homerun in the 8th."

by RaysnNoles on Jul 28, 2009 12:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

They need to pull the trigger and move Navi and Kaz to the Indians for Lee and Martinez.

I am sure that the Indians will want a Davis type 3rd player, but it needs to get done. Navi had a career year last year, and history shows it wont happen again

Support the Type Strong Movement, Like This Little Lady Does
Let's work together to combat Terminal Rocco Disease.

by Top Gun Numba 1 on Jul 28, 2009 11:38 AM EDT reply actions  

Oh I know now.

I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.

by kericr on Jul 28, 2009 11:40 AM EDT up reply actions  

Rays have done very well with the worst Manager and pitching coach in BB.

 Let the pitchers pitch and not have to look over their shoulders all the time. Its all about pitch count and match ups. Our genius leader gives games away. Yes we need help

Support the Type Strong Movement, Like This Little Lady Does
Let's work together to combat Terminal Rocco Disease.

by Top Gun Numba 1 on Jul 28, 2009 11:40 AM EDT up reply actions  

They would be smart to make Longoria part of any deal.

Support the Type Strong Movement, Like This Little Lady Does
Let's work together to combat Terminal Rocco Disease.

by Top Gun Numba 1 on Jul 28, 2009 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions  

lol

Support the Type Strong Movement, Like This Little Lady Does
Let's work together to combat Terminal Rocco Disease.

by Top Gun Numba 1 on Jul 28, 2009 11:52 AM EDT up reply actions  

Fuck.

I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.

by kericr on Jul 28, 2009 11:53 AM EDT up reply actions  

I don't know of anyone who wants to trade Longoria

at least not on here, I don’t read the heater stuff. If you mis understood what I was saying earlier, it wasn’t to trade Longoria. I just found it funny that you think Longoria is the leader of this team, just because he is the best player. When there have been multiple things said and reported that Longoria actually isn’t a “leader” type player in the locker room at all and keeps mainly to himself.

by Dbullsfan on Jul 28, 2009 11:56 AM EDT up reply actions  

We also need to get rid of Upton, move Bartlett to leadoff till Aki gets back and make Zorilla number 3 batter.

Maybe then we could score a run in the 1st to help dictate games. And please get rid of the tubby tub behind the plate!

Support the Type Strong Movement, Like This Little Lady Does
Let's work together to combat Terminal Rocco Disease.

by Top Gun Numba 1 on Jul 28, 2009 11:39 AM EDT reply actions  

I think its Tampa sports fans in general

on average we have to be some of the dumbest fans in the world

Kap-rilla???

by Sveet on Jul 28, 2009 11:52 AM EDT up reply actions  

2009: BJ Upton, Evan Longoria, Carlos Pena, Pat Burrell, Dioner Navarro

Aki (injured), Scott Kazmir, David Price, Andy Sonnonstine, Grant Balfour and Dan Wheeler, Troy Percival

Need i go on?

by Raymondo on Jul 28, 2009 11:55 AM EDT reply actions  

I ought to box you for this.

I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.

by kericr on Jul 28, 2009 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions  

No, he only used 15 words, not 1500

Support the Type Strong Movement, Like This Little Lady Does
Let's work together to combat Terminal Rocco Disease.

by Top Gun Numba 1 on Jul 28, 2009 12:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

and didn't post an adult friend finder site

www.bucem.com - SBNation's source for all things Buccaneer

by Buc Wild on Jul 28, 2009 12:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

And he doesn't sign his posts

And he doesn’t air out his transgressions on his profile.

And he doesn’t directly email regular users and personally attack them.

And he wouldn’t threaten legal action for being banned.

And he contributes.

I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.

by kericr on Jul 28, 2009 1:26 PM EDT up reply actions  

The season is far from over. The offense hasn't been any worse than it was last year.

It slumps in a similar fashion. The difference has been the consistency of our starting pitching, and bad luck.

by Suttree on Jul 28, 2009 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions  

THE ray are going nowhere when they ca`t evan put down a bunt or whwn was the las time the sacrficed sombody to 2nd or 3rd and why do they soak the infield so much there is no sun out there i don`t get it do they ever think about the squeeze NO LIFE

Support the Type Strong Movement, Like This Little Lady Does
Let's work together to combat Terminal Rocco Disease.

by Top Gun Numba 1 on Jul 28, 2009 12:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

Book Blog had a great post on regression to the mean

And basically stated that when players are above average they will always regress downward.

This is partly what has happened. A lot of players played over their head last year, or at least at the good end of their expected output. This year they are probably playing as expected or on the poor end.

It happens. I don’t know what you’d like to do about it.

by tallyray on Jul 28, 2009 12:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

I think there was a good chance that a lot of players were on the positive side of their performance distribution...

Sonnanstine, Navarro, Pena, Longoria, Balfour, Wheeler, Shields, Garza

They all probably performed a better than should be expected (whether slightly or significantly).

This year, a lot of them are probably on the other side so the spread looks a whole lot larger.

by tallyray on Jul 28, 2009 12:08 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'll give you Sonny, Navi, Balfour, and Wheeler

but I don’t really agree on the rest.

Kap-rilla???

by Sveet on Jul 28, 2009 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

.
The thing that people don’t understand (actually one of the things) about regression toward the mean in baseball is that the reason any above or below average player will always regress, on the average, towards average, is that they were not really as good or bad as we thought in the first place, based on any of their stats. That goes for Sabathia, Halladay, Bonds, Chipper Jones, etc., etc. Chipper Jones is not as good as his career stats tell us, even after you do all the appropriate adjustments. Same for Halladay. And Sabathia. And everyone else who has been above average and we think has true talent X. When I say "as we think" I mean as their stats suggest, not as we think based on a credible projection which already does the regression. And of course, there is some chance that any given player is better than his prior stats – it is just that the chances of him being worse is greater than the chances of him being better. That is ALWAYS the case, as long as we properly define the mean for that player.

by R.J. Anderson on Jul 28, 2009 12:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

Basically we tend to overvalue/undervalue players based on their current production

And generally we overvalue because we are more likely to dismiss poor play then dismiss very good performances.

As much as we hate to admit that luck plays a huge part (or random variance if we don’t want to call it luck), it is a huge part of baseball. Unfortunately, as lucky as the Rays were last year, they have been pretty unlucky this year.

by tallyray on Jul 28, 2009 12:10 PM EDT up reply actions  

Help!

“Chipper Jones is not as good as his career stats tell us, even after you do all the appropriate adjustments. Same for Halladay. And Sabathia.”

Wouldn’t the players be pretty damn close to as good as CAREER stats tell us?

I am going to have to read this book. I guess I’m misinterpreting the statement.

by wtbudlight on Jul 28, 2009 12:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

It's an odd statement...

I think he’s saying that players who finish with very good stats are more likely to have outplayed their true talent level. Basically saying it’s much easier to be lucky over several years then to really be that much better than everyone else. RJ may want to correct me if he interpreted it differently.

by tallyray on Jul 28, 2009 12:47 PM EDT up reply actions  

I think this is correct.

I went back and read the Regression to the Mean section in The Book and basically it was “X amount of hitters with Y PAs hit for a .400 wOBA in 200Z, the next year that same group hit for a P wOBA. (which was about .010 points lower or so) what happened? They were lucky.”

Then it gets into regressing those players expectations based on a few different aspects and so on.

by R.J. Anderson on Jul 28, 2009 12:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah, going to have to read it...

If the argument about players generally being worse than their stats show is valid, then that means it is more likely that you get lucky than get unlucky over the long run.

Putting that into perspective, what the author is saying, if I’m right, is that a career .320 wOBA player, is much more likely to go for a .330 wOBA in any given season than a .320 wOBA.

What i can’t put my finger on is why that is and why an infinite timeline wouldn’t result in an average of true ability, but would indeed be skewed upward.

by wtbudlight on Jul 28, 2009 1:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

by the way..

the comments section at that link helps a lot to understand the points they are making.

by wtbudlight on Jul 28, 2009 1:07 PM EDT up reply actions  

I HAVE THE SOLUTION

Where is the unknowninsiders speech he wrote. THATS WHAT THE TEAM NEEDS

www.bucem.com - SBNation's source for all things Buccaneer

by Buc Wild on Jul 28, 2009 12:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

Not hi-jacked, merely converted, it has seen the light

and become more heater-ish. Clearly the best way to get the Rays to win is to over react, sell the team for pennies and make asinine absolute statements that eloquently show off how little we know.

www.bucem.com - SBNation's source for all things Buccaneer

by Buc Wild on Jul 28, 2009 12:23 PM EDT up reply actions  

TRADE DBULLSFAN FOR LEE AN MARTINEZ

Support the Type Strong Movement, Like This Little Lady Does
Let's work together to combat Terminal Rocco Disease.

by Top Gun Numba 1 on Jul 28, 2009 12:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

WE CANT WIN BECAUSE THEIR PAYROLL IS HIGHER THAN OURS

www.bucem.com - SBNation's source for all things Buccaneer

by Buc Wild on Jul 28, 2009 12:22 PM EDT reply actions  

Since we are talking regression is anyone really worried about Shields?

He has been declining year over year for the past few. What are the chances that this is the real Shields? Not that 2009 Shields is bad, but I think we were all expecting a bit more.

by matthan on Jul 28, 2009 12:24 PM EDT reply actions  

Are you kidding?

His FIP over the last three years:

4.39
3.86
3.82
4.00

He’s going through a bad slump at the moment, but there’s no reason to think he won’t rebound and end the year with a 3.8 FIP again. Weren’t you just singing his praises a few weeks ago?

by Suttree on Jul 28, 2009 12:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

Big differnce between comparing him among his peers and comparing him against himself

Take a look at his K rates and Walk rates.

K%
2007-21.05%
2008-18.24%
2009-16.02%

BB%
2007-4.12%
2008-4.56%
2009-5.34%

by matthan on Jul 28, 2009 12:30 PM EDT up reply actions  

Thanks

How do we know what his true talent level mean is? You need a pretty large enough sample size, but of course then you have possible distortions due to age, injury, etc. Like I said perhaps his early career K rates were in fact on the “high” side of his true talent level mean? And now he is a good portion lower to balance it out. We just cant take his first few years and derive the mean that way.

I understand that post, but my post is pointed towards the last sentence of the second to last paragraph. Namely “as long as we properly define the mean for that player”. This is what I’m asking. What is James Shields mean?

by matthan on Jul 28, 2009 12:45 PM EDT up reply actions  

But can't K and BB rate's be susceptible to variation?

I tend to think so… As referred to above, this may be on the downside of his expected output. His true talent is probably a little better than this.

by tallyray on Jul 28, 2009 12:32 PM EDT up reply actions  

Actually his expected strikeouts is just about around 16%

He really outperformed it in the past and has been regression towards his expected number.

I was just hypothesizing that perhaps his first couple of years were data points above his true talent level mean. Maybe they were, maybe they weren’t. Either way those declines aren’t exactly good to see.

by matthan on Jul 28, 2009 12:35 PM EDT up reply actions  

Which is possible.

How were the expected strikeouts calculated?

Am I wrong in assuming the better the changeup the more likely he’ll get a K?

by tallyray on Jul 28, 2009 12:45 PM EDT up reply actions  

I used a multiple regression based upon call strikes, swinging (in and out of zone) strikes, fouls, in play etc

And came up with a formula based upon 7 years of data. The adjust r-squared was 91.5% so it was really strong. Essentially Shields was one of the bigger outliers. His expected strikeouts consistently was in the 16 or so % range. He routinely outperformed it, and this year he is finally in line. Which of course with a 91% r-squared all the variation isn’t explained so perhaps Shields has some other variable that will cause him to consistently outperform it? However I’d expect his true talent is more in the 16-17% range than the 20% range we’ve seen in the past.

by matthan on Jul 28, 2009 12:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

In this context I don't think it matters

The “stats” for the great pitch would be found in a higher percent of swinging strikes/called strikes/etc. And players with bad pitches would have more balls as well as more balls being hit in play.

by matthan on Jul 28, 2009 1:04 PM EDT up reply actions  

But are the swinging/called strikes divided by pitch types or count?

If a pitcher has a strikeout pitch, and sets a player up accordingly, couldn’t we expect a higher swinging strike percentage with two strikes? A rate that would not be consistent with the norm?

by tallyray on Jul 28, 2009 1:07 PM EDT up reply actions  

Well that is the thing

The model only explains 91.5% of the variation. That is extremely strong, but not perfect. Obviously there are other variables to throw in the pot, the problem is just collecting the data.

I’d love to break down swinging strikes by count (already can do zone) and called strikes by count. I’d also love to regress called strikes that were balls also, and say first pitch non-contact strikes. There are other variables that are just uncollectable. The further we can break it down the better. The power of the model increased a good portion by being able to separate swinging strikes to in zone swinging strikes and out of zone swinging strikes.

by matthan on Jul 28, 2009 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

It sounds like great work...

Pitch by count just sounds very key (and you may have covered this in the article, I just skimmed it before).

For example:

In 2009, Shields’ swinging strike rate is 15%. That means he’s had ~ 215 swinging strikes

He has 26% strikes looking (382). However, his K-looking percentage is only 19%.

That means that 80 of his 215 swinging strikes (37%) come with two strikes, while only 19 of his 382 looking strikes (5%) come with two strikes.

by tallyray on Jul 28, 2009 1:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

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