25 Million Pieces: The Potential Cliff Lee Trade and How it Affects Playoff Probability, Payroll, Prospects, and Draft Picks
by R.J. Anderson on Jul 28, 2009 12:35 AM EDT
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PrintThe season isn't over and the playoff hopes aren't either, but the odds are heavily against us. BTB had the Rays at 24% odds Sunday morning, those have almost certainly dropped to 20% or so. That's a one-in-five chance at the post-season. The Yankees are basically guaranteed a playoff spot and the Red Sox are five ahead with only 62 to play.
The Sox actually have 64 to play, but if you assume they play .592 ball the rest of the way, like they have to date, then the Rays need to go 43-19 to tie them and 44-18 to top them. Winning 70% of the remaining games isn't impossible, but at the same time isn't predictable either. From now until Friday a ton of trade rumors are going to swirl around, with the most prevalent being Cliff Lee to the Rays. The basis for any deal is going to look like this:
TB: Lee
CLE: Prospects
Third team, probably an AL West team: Scott Kazmir
Lee and Kazmir are making about the same this year and equal next year, after which Lee would be a free agent and Kazmir would be entering the final two years of his deal at a combined 25 million. The perks for adding Lee and ridding Kazmir are summed up in money, performance, and essentially guaranteed draft picks following next season. That 12-13 million freed up in 2011 and 2012 could come in real handy with Matt Garza and B.J. Upton nearing free agency as well.
As for the performance issue, there's no way of knowing whether Kazmir will ever top his 2007. The same can be said for Lee this year though. If you assume Kazmir is basically replacement level - like he's been to date this season - then Lee represents a true change of about 1.5 wins from here on out. If you assume Kazmir is better, then the difference is closer to a win at most.On that BTB chart, an additional win is worth 7%, two is worth 14%, so 1.5 is close to a 10% gain. That puts the Rays at, oh let's say 30%. About a one-third chance. Better odds for sure, but to make the playoffs we also need:
1. Luck.
2. Boston to not upgrade by the same amount.
The odds aren't fantastic, and both of those conditional statements are unlikely, still though, a Lee deal gives the Rays a better shot this year and next. Assume any Lee deal includesWade Davis and it gets a bit murkier. Davis is a top 50 pitcher, which puts his surplus value at 16 million. Assuming Lee nets the Rays a pick between 16-30 and a supplemental pick, those two combine for 7.8 million in surplus value.
So the Rays theoretically lose 8 million there. The difference between Lee and Kazmir probably makes that up. Even if Kazmir turns it up to be a 3 win pitcher per season, Lee is probably better next season by at least a win, maybe two. Those extra wins push the Rays closer to the playoffs which means a shot at the gold. In Baseball Between the Numbers, Nate Silver estimated that a playoff appearance is worth 25 million.That doesn't mean go out and trade Desmond Jennings and Tim Beckham - mostly because top 50 hitters are worth about 23 million apiece - but it does mean that there's a lot to be gained by simply making the playoffs.
Here's how everything breaks down if the Rays decide for trading Kazmir and Davis for Lee:
- The Rays gain ~10% in playoff odds this year, 15%+ next year. Raising their odds this season to ~30% and next season to ~53% (based on what CoolStandings.com had us slated for on opening day 2008, and adding 15%)
- The Rays gain 25 mil in budget room combined for 2011 and 2012.
- The Rays likely gain two draft picks in the 2011 draft (a first and a supplemental first) from Lee.
- The Rays potentially gain 25 million from a playoff appearance, although this is hardly guaranteed.
- Keeps Lee away from Boston and New York.
- The Rays lose two additional seasons of Kazmir.
- The Rays lose three costless seasons from Davis, and three cost-controlled seasons.
Of course the Rays could simply trade Kazmir to a team like the Angels or Mariners for some prospects or decide against dealing Wade Davis and throw him into the rotation mix next year. Those are variables and about a million of them exist. A few more would be: how much will the Red Sox and Yankees upgrade in the off-season? How will the prospect value market shift over the next 12 months? How will the free agent market shift? What is the difference between 89 and 91 wins if the Rays fail to make the playoffs? How much does losing Davis hurt the system?
It comes down to a cost-benefit analysis, something in which this front office excels.
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My question
It seems we are having starting pitching problems all around—does adding Lee do anything to help our other pitchers have success?
You're not framing it the right way
Adding Lee increases our current playoff chances 50%! Trade for him now!
But on a more serious level, $25m x 0.25 increase means an extra expected 6.25m from playoffs, so 16m v 14m doesn’t seem as bad. But we’re also not factoring in if we need additional prospects, or whatever other prospects we’d be giving up if Kaz is traded and their costs, so I’d imagine it’s prolly like 25m? vs 14m?
And I’m in the camp that doesn’t think prospect overvaluations will change. There are too many reasons both financial and performance wise why they’ll continue to be valued at a premium, especially given the revenue/attendance issues across the league.
70% isn’t impossible, it’s just highly improbable, and would still be even if Pujols magically played for us
Blog: www.lostinsoxcountry.com
You have snatched my last three ideas for posts.
I apparently need to get more original.
I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.
So on a braves message board, there has been speculation on carl crawford and his availability. Now I realize the Rays are not willing to punt this season and the braves don’t really have the prospects outside of Heyward and Freeman (who are unavailable) to interest the rays. However we do have a front of the rotation pitcher comparable to Cliff Lee, Javier Vazquez. I’ve also heard the Rays are looking to upgrade the bullpen. So I wanted to see if you all thought that this would be a fair deal: Vazquez, Ryan Church, and Mike Gonzalez for Crawford and Hellickson/Davis. Based on conservative WAR estimates, I have the Rays at a slight advantage in excess value but considering the Braves excess pitching I’d do the deal. What do you all think? Now I realize this deal won’t happen and is highly speculative but just throwing an alternative idea out there
by McCann's the Man on Jul 28, 2009 1:54 AM EDT reply actions
Vazquez, Ryan Church, and Mike Gonzalez for Crawford and Hellickson/Davis.
No. No. No.
Why do we need Ryan Church? Why do we need Mike Gonzales? We will not be giving up Davis/Hellboy ALONG with crawford.
Brad Ziegler had a scoreless inning streak. Brad Ziegler had not met BJ Upton.
Think before you post
33,30,31 for 27, 23/22
"I want to live in a world where a solo homerun in the 2nd inning counts as much as a homerun in the 8th."
For Crawford & Hellickson/Davis
We better be getting your entire farm.
Church sucks. Gonzales? We’re ok. Vazquez? Might as well an keep Hellickson/Davis and cancel that out. In the end, we’d basically just giving you Crawford, for nothing.
If you want Crawford you'd have to give up Heyward
I think Vazquez is highly underrated, but you just can’t mix and match major league players to create a trade. This isn’t some playstation 3 game.
Hanson would get Crawford too.
It is really no different than what the Indians are doing with Cliff Lee. Why would they want some shady major league players or so so prospects? That just isn’t worth it. They either get an elite prospect or they’ll just keep their player. The Rays would be no different.
I’d go with something such as Crawford and Jennings for Heyward and Vazquez. You’d win on the major league side and we’d win on the minor league side
Which I doubt the Rays would do that either
It would put them in a serious bind with starting pitching. We’d be forced to give up a couple starters for a bag of chips.
As you said there are a million variables and scenarios
I think it comes down to the fact that the Rays have excess starting pitching. Next year we will have Shields, Garza, Kazmir, Niemann, Price, Sonnanstine, Davis, and Talbot. The year after that Hellickson. We have to trade somebody at some point. We must maximize efficiency and value. Sonnanstine and Talbot will have virtually no value; at least they will be way undervalued. So Sonny should be in the rotation perhaps? and Talbot in the pen next year. That essentially leaves Kazmir, Niemann, and Davis. Flipping two of them into Cliff Lee?
My opinion, which I think would be the best overall solution, would be to do a Kaz/Davis for Lee type deal now. In the offseason trade Niemann. Go into next year with Lee, Shields, Garza, Price, Sonnanstine.
Need to keep more than that
All 5 starters aren’t going to be healthy the entire season…..needs some backups and I wouldn’t want to rely on people like Carlos Hernendez down in Durham
"Doesn't Manny Ramirez look like the monster from Predator??" - Will Farrell as Harry Carey
by Gone Phishing on Jul 28, 2009 9:45 AM EDT up reply actions
Where are you going to put them?
Players are going to start running out of options, and it is a giant waste of value to have a guy like Sonnanstine in the minors
Will the current series against NY
sway the front office into doing/not doing something? Meaning, are they more likely to sit tight or make a move if we get swept? If we win the next 3 are they more likely to make a move? Just wondering (aside from playoff hunt) how important these next games are to the structure of our team
www.bucem.com - SBNation's source for all things Buccaneer
Very important
I think we need to make a couple moves. What happens these next two days will determine how we value the next 2 months.
And it looks like its just Lee for now?
V-mart would be too expensive (in terms of add’l players) to addon?
www.bucem.com - SBNation's source for all things Buccaneer
Who knows?
Maybe he becomes worse and we won’t be even able to trade him for nothing! Then we would be forced to put him in the pen or DFA him and eat ALL the money!
I'd be curious to see how he does without that monster Jim Hickey
Kidding, aside, he really hasn’t looked good since Butchy left.
I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.
by Sandy Kazmir on Jul 28, 2009 9:18 AM EDT up reply actions
yes, my son?
I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.
by Sandy Kazmir on Jul 28, 2009 9:43 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I hate the pitching coach argument.
The statistical support for it is indirect at best and presumptuous at worst. There was a lot of hard work that went into the study (by matthan and others, or maybe just matthan), but all it does is construct a scapegoat.
So long, Sweet Lime!
i see your point, but would
another guy be any worse? better? this fo has shown very adept at filling round holes with round pegs, i trust their judgment in finding someone that gets the most out of our considerable talent. i don’t advocate peterson since he probably will come with a heavy tag, but there are a ton of guys out there that can do that job. i guess i prefer to put no names in a position since theyve always had to work harder
I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.
by Sandy Kazmir on Jul 28, 2009 10:01 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Wow, it sounds like you've been broken?
Change of stance, right?
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
by FreeZorilla on Jul 28, 2009 10:08 AM EDT up reply actions
I said from the start that I'm not sure a PC has a big impact. I would think that would make
them easily replaceable. My beef was with people basically saying that Jim Hickey was ruining our staff when I am more likely to point a finger at the guy on the bump.
I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.
by Sandy Kazmir on Jul 28, 2009 10:02 PM EDT up reply actions
To be totally honest, I don't have the slightest clue about what a change would bring.
All I know is that last year Hickey didn’t get stick. During our hellacious slump here, Steve Henderson isn’t getting stick. It seems like the pitching coach argument is a convenient filler for a heretofore unexplainable issue. At the end of the day, James Shields makes the choice to throw his changeup or not on any given count. Carlos Pena makes the choice to go out of the zone or not on 2-0. A skill coach at the ML-level is pretty redundant. These players have been executing the mechanics of their particular skill set since a very young age (Zorilla is a very rare occasion). We should really just lobby the team to employ a fleet of traveling psychologists.
So long, Sweet Lime!
by PlayOnWords on Jul 28, 2009 10:12 AM EDT up reply actions
eh
I’ll amend that to say the pitching coach argument is a blanket reason for a difficult issue with a lot of variables.
So long, Sweet Lime!
by PlayOnWords on Jul 28, 2009 10:13 AM EDT up reply actions
This.
Maybe pitching coaches, maybe they don’t, but it’s really just a very easy way of explaining something without actually being accurate.
That is a fair explanation
As I’ve always said, if you believe that coaches do not matter, then what is the harm in switching? Ignoring monetary concerns the only truly logical reason you’d want Hickey to stay is if you are 100% sure that coaches do not matter. You’d be totally indifferent to the coach. However if you are just 99% sure coaches do not matter then you should be in favor of a change as there is some chance at improvement.
We don't know this
We wouldn’t give much for Kaz right now. It doesn’t mean someone else won’t. We were supposedly very close to acquiring Lee for Kaz and Briganc essentially. Thats a good indicator he does have value out there.
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
People keep saying this, yet is it really?
1. It helps us land Cliff Lee.
2. You’re essentially dealing Kazmir for another top young pitcher, that’s a lot better return than anyone thought we could get three weeks ago.
by R.J. Anderson on Jul 28, 2009 10:01 AM EDT up reply actions
As far as playoffs go, the season is dangerously close to being
over. Now 6 GB BOS and 4 GB TEX
the key for me
is to get longo and los back to form. our offense shit the bed against the phils when those were looking, well a lot like they have lately. i’m encouraged by longo staying on the ball a little better lately, it seems like he is trying to hit the rf alley when a pitch is low and away instead of just hacking away.
I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.
by Sandy Kazmir on Jul 28, 2009 9:38 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
sorry about the punctuation bit via mobile
is hard when you havent been to bed in far too long
I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.
by Sandy Kazmir on Jul 28, 2009 9:41 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Thats a pretty good comparison
This has been a month long World Series of offensive performance
July wOBA
Upton .273
Pena .258
Longoria .279
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
5 games back of Boston. 2.5 back from Texas.
I know you like to be Debbie Downer and try to bait everyone, but seriously, this takes two clicks of a button to find out.
Into the Wall : Sarcasm for the Soccer Guy
by ReasonableDoubt on Jul 28, 2009 9:44 AM EDT up reply actions
Do you just have a book of baseball cliches that you go to?
Into the Wall : Sarcasm for the Soccer Guy
by ReasonableDoubt on Jul 28, 2009 9:56 AM EDT up reply actions
That was then, this is now.
/McCarver’d
Into the Wall : Sarcasm for the Soccer Guy
by ReasonableDoubt on Jul 28, 2009 10:00 AM EDT up reply actions
They had more gritty white guys, though.
So long, Sweet Lime!
by PlayOnWords on Jul 28, 2009 10:00 AM EDT up reply actions
trade Kaz + a prospect (Kang/Nowak?) for Holland (if that gets it done)
and hold it right there. Sonny comes up and gives what should be equal value at least for the rest of this year (relative to Kazmir), we get a top 50-type prospect, shed salary, maintain around a 20% chance to make the playoffs while also clearing up space and building for a potential scenario when we can’t take care of both Upton or Garza with more prospects. The difference from Kaz to Sonny, given their performances the last 1.5 years can’t be more than 1/2 a win (10 starts or so) in my mind, and we clear up the salary and reload our farm a bit while not letting playoff odds slip drastically. What is the bonus with Lee > Niemann/Price. 1 – 1.5 war? Helpful, definitley, but I can’t see more than a 5-10 (maybe) percent increase which might not be worth a lateral move in terms of money.
This would be a good deal in terms of value (although I think we’re paying Sonny alot less these next two seasons for a FIP anywhere from 4.5 – 4.0 which is a better value then Lee giving us a FIP from 3.5 – 3.0 for 5 million more. Its about 1 point of FIP for about million, and its probably a slight downgrade in value. If we’re doing it for this year I can’t see it helping us SO much this year that it is worth possibly taking a hit in value for next year.
The money we save from Lee can be used to make a move this offseason for next season, where that move will have much more time to take effect. Do it then, not now when our playoff odds are already squandered a decent amount, let the move propogate (yes, I know Lee would last from now through next year, but I’m assuming we would eat the remaining salary for Lee THIS year which could bite into money, when combined with his salary next year, for a player)
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