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Should The Rays Trade Carlos Pena?

I must admit I've thought of this scenario before. I mean it's natural for any Rays fan to question how long a high priced player will be on the roster. It's the nature of the beast we've chosen to follow. Since Joel Sherman brought up Carlos Pena's name yesterday, I decided it was time to look into it. Should (the situation present itself) the Rays trade Carlos Pena?

The answer is yes and here is why. The answer is yes as long as the deal makes the Rays better in 2009 and 2010. Whether this is Cliff Lee, Victor Martinez or both, if we need/can trade Carlos Pena to make it happen then by all means do it. We love you Carlos, but good luck. I know that sounds harsh and I am a huge Carlos Pena fan, but I'm a Rays fan first and foremost and when thinking of potential trades we must put our emotions and personal favorites aside.

Star-divide

Off the bat people will say we will not be able to replace Pena's leadership, his clubhouse leadership and his heart. That may all be well and true, but last time I checked we don't have a metric for heart or leadership, but I'm sure fangraphs.com is working on it. What we do have is good ol' stats.

Despite his 25 home runs, Pena is having his worst season with the Rays. His .217/.348/.496 falls well short of his monster 2007 season of .282/.411/.627 and is still short of his 2008 campaign of .247/.377/.496. Despite his .217 average, Carlos is still hitting the ball with authority and that's good. He nearly has as many doubles (19) as he did in 2007 (29) and 2008 (24). His ISO is also still above average at .279,

The problem hasn't been extra base hits or power; it's been the other facets of Pena's game, most namely getting on base via the walk. Pena is what he is, a three outcome player for the most part. While the home run part of the equation has remained stellar, the other two have not. As FreeZorilla pointed out, Pena has become an even more free swinger than in years pass.

BB%

K%

BB/K

OSwing%

2007

17.4

29

0.73

19.8

2008

16.4

33.9

0.58

20.8

2009

15.6

36.8

0.50

23.0

Pena is just swinging more and more. Not only is his O-Swing his highest since joining the Rays, but his swings inside the zone are also up. The bad news is the contact he's making on those pitches and just pitches overall is down.

Swing%

Miss%

Contact%

ZSwing%

ZContact

2007

42.1

29.7

70.3

71.1

78.4

2008

43.5

29.5

70.5

70.7

77

2009

45.4

33.8

66.2

74.1

73.8

Another argument people are going to make is Pena's gold glove defense. While that may have been true is years past, it's not in 2009. In fact, Pena is the teams worst defender and has arguably been the worst defensive first basemen in the AL. I know that sounds ridiculous, but his -3.5 UZR is a full run plus worst than the next lowest, Justin Morneau -2.3. Of course, we know better than to look at one year of defensive data, but given Pena's age and a trending decline in range, there is a concern.

Much of Pena's defensive value last year was because of his errors, or lack there of. Pena made just two errors in 132 games. This year he has eight in 99 games. Errors are subjective, but range is not. Here are Pena's RngR or Range Runs Above Average for the past three years...

 

RngR

2007

3.4

2008

1.4

2009

-2.2

Not the trend you want to see for a 31 year-old first basemen.

So this begs the question, we'll with all that being said, why would a team want Pena? Well, like I said Pena can still mash with the best of them and while his contract is pricey for the Rays next year ($10 million), there are teams that can afford to pay him for his offense only. Ideally, the Rays would keep Pena and move him to the DH, but we are locked with Pat Burrell for the 2010 season.

I'll end this by saying, I DO NOT WANT TO TRADE CARLOS PENA. However, if the Rays are really hot and heavy for Cliff Lee and Victor Martinez AND they can find a team willing to give up some value for Carlos Pena, then it is Andrew Friedman's obligation to make that deal whether our emotions like it or not.

*numbers as of Tuesday afternoon*

Comment 119 comments  |  0 recs  | 

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And it was more about his free swinging than anything.

Pena’s batting average is almost a non-issue to me. If he was hitting .250 or .260, I still feel the same way. One thing to note, Pena has a career OPS over 1.000 in August.

www.draysbay.com

by Tommy Rancel on Jul 29, 2009 7:36 AM EDT up reply actions  

Wow...this quote makes you come across like a cock...

" Looks like just a few singles to me. I thought this was the point where you guys would dig up some BABIP data, however it doesn’t help make your point (which I guess is now that Pena sucks and they should trade him) so I did it for you."

Well, since you didnt do the work, I did it for you. He is walking 1% less when compared to 2008, and 2% from 2007. His K% rate is up 3% from last season and 7% from 2007. While his BABIP is down, you fail to mention his LD% is down 2%. His GB% is down 2.5% from 2006, and 8% from 2007.

So his LD% and GB% are down. So maybe that’s why his BABIP is down.

by td32 on Jul 29, 2009 7:37 AM EDT up reply actions  

A little touchy?

The article said his biggest problem is “getting on base via the walk”, which is clearly not the case. His BB% on the year is still excellent, good for 6th in the AL The fact is that his OBP is down 30 points vs last year as a whole merely becaus is batting average is down 30 points. A few more singles find their way through the shift and all of a sudden his slash line looks like 2008. In fact, on July 30th of last year his slash line looked this: .236/.340/.447. Maybe we should have traded him at the deadline last year? You guys want to call Bartlett’s first half a fluke because his BABIP is way higher than recent years, yet the opposite is true for Carlos and you want to look for reasons why the relatively crummy numbers so far are reason to dump him.

Look, I know the point wasn’t “Pena sucks, let’s trade him.” However, my point is that the numbers aren’t all that different from where they were last year, we’re just (hopefully) on the back end of a slump heading into a hot streak. Maddon has said again recently that Pena gets himself into trouble when he expands his strike zone and overswings, hopefully that will get through to him soon and he can get back to crushing the ball. Is it really crazy to think Pena will go completely apeshit in August and September like he’s done previously and get his numbers closer to where they were the past two years? Is it worth trading one of the faces of the team on the chance that he doesn’t? To me, it seems like another case of trying to sell low.

 You want to make a big deal about a percentage point here or there in LD% and GB% — how about looking up LD%, GB% and everything else through July 30th last year and see how it compares?

by homeboogie on Jul 29, 2009 8:52 AM EDT up reply actions  

the only way I advocate trading Pena

If its part of a bigger deal. I’m not in favor of just a straight salary dump, but if we need to move him in order to get Lee and/or Martinez then I’m ok with that.

www.draysbay.com

by Tommy Rancel on Jul 29, 2009 8:58 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

so you want to get rid of Pena for Martinez, both who play 1B. You think Martinez is the better 1B?

I don’t think he is better defensively or offensively this would be incredibly stupid, beyond belief type of stupid

by Navi's_Navy on Jul 29, 2009 11:25 AM EDT up reply actions  

My post only pointed to Pena having his two worst months back-to-back as Ray when it comes to chasing pitches out of the zone

I don’t think its a skill decline, more a matter of frustration and pressing. He, Zobrist and Longoria are rarely seeing fastballs in the zone. Did you read my post?

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Jul 29, 2009 10:02 AM EDT up reply actions  

It certainly sounds like he did

And he makes good points with data to back it up. New person who can back up what he says with research wtf right?

I could be wrong though

by staplemaniac on Jul 29, 2009 10:28 AM EDT up reply actions  

Pena is striking out over 40% of the time in July.

With a higher % of outside the zone swinging strikes. I wasn’t referencing his batting average as I am generally not as concerned about BA. His OBP and SLG are really struggling. I looked at each month historically.

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Jul 29, 2009 10:36 AM EDT up reply actions  

I'd trade him and fast

and all i’d be concerned with is shedding the $10 million they owe him next year

He has really fallen off

by Raymondo on Jul 29, 2009 8:12 AM EDT reply actions   1 recs

Seriously?

Even if he drops off further, he’s still worth $10M.

Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."

by Brickhaus on Jul 29, 2009 11:17 AM EDT up reply actions  

Especially considering the alternatives at 1B

Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."

by Brickhaus on Jul 29, 2009 11:17 AM EDT up reply actions  

Always hard to part with genuinely likable guys

that have/had a hand in making the Rays contenders, but you’re absolutely right, if the right deal comes along, you have to cut the cord and wish him good luck.

www.bucem.com - SBNation's source for all things Buccaneer

by Buc Wild on Jul 29, 2009 8:15 AM EDT reply actions  

The problem is who would want them?

Only teams such as the Rays would see real value in a player like Pena. Most teams would shy away from his batting average and high strikeouts. Like could just go sign Russell Branyon

by matthan on Jul 29, 2009 8:23 AM EDT reply actions  

Yep that is the problem.

I said I’d only do the deal if we get value back, but that value may not be out there. If that’s the case you hold on to him. Hopefully his yearly August hot streak happens again.

www.draysbay.com

by Tommy Rancel on Jul 29, 2009 8:26 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

That's wgy i suggest don't worry about

a return, just dump the salary

Honestly, hope he has a comeback year in ’10, casue right now, nobody will take on that salary

by Raymondo on Jul 29, 2009 8:30 AM EDT up reply actions  

He's making 8M and so far has been worth 6.3M

I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.

by Sandy Kazmir on Jul 29, 2009 10:46 AM EDT up reply actions  

Also I realize perception isn't reality...

But it just appears Pena isn’t doing that great in high leverage situations (although the Toronto game was nice). He just seems to strike out way too often with men on base. That may not be the case and it may just be selective memory, but thats just how i remember it.

by matthan on Jul 29, 2009 8:30 AM EDT reply actions   1 recs

I don't think you're neccesarily wrong.

Considering how many big hits Carlos has gotten over the years, I’m not sure it’s an issue of whether or not he has the clutch gene, like some tv analysts my take it, but he’s certainly struck out in a lot of big situations.

by Suttree on Jul 29, 2009 8:56 AM EDT up reply actions  

ZoRilla did a breakdown, whicj Staats spoke of last night

In his 1st AB, he struck out on 5 pitches, not one being a strike

by Raymondo on Jul 29, 2009 8:59 AM EDT up reply actions  

Would trading him REALLY make us better?

His defense is highly under rated. When he compartmentalizes the strike zone he is very dangerous. I don’t think Pena is as easily replaced with a platoon as some think.

by floridaroar on Jul 29, 2009 9:06 AM EDT reply actions  

I know there's no metric for this, as said by Tommy above

But I’ve heard that Pena is a pretty big component of that locker room. I’m 100% down with the unflinching truths of stats and all the SABRporn of DRB and the at-large baseball blogosphere, but Los is reportedly like everyone’s big brother on the team. I’d assume there’d be some kind of let down, some Sad Panda action subsequent to a trade. I wish I was pulling this info out of my ass. I would hope to be wrong, tho.

So long, Sweet Lime!

by PlayOnWords on Jul 29, 2009 9:13 AM EDT reply actions  

Just wanted to add what I said on radio last night

I still think the deadline comes and goes and the Rays don’t make a blockbuster deal. It hasn’t been Friedman’s style to make the big splash. The Rays have enough talent on the roster to make a run without making a move.

But I’m all for Cliff Lee at the same time.

www.draysbay.com

by Tommy Rancel on Jul 29, 2009 9:22 AM EDT via mobile reply actions  

Certainly The Idea Has Merit

But you have the wrong philosophy when making trades.
You buy low sell high.
You don’t trade a Pena (or a Kazmir for that matter) when they are performing at their worst levels.
This is probably the bottom level of Pena’s ability right now. Trading him will only return equal talent.
Unfortunately, you have to wait for him to heat up to consider this.
Kazmir has certainly increased his value somewhat after last night’s performance.
Now’s the time for him to go.

by s125405 on Jul 29, 2009 9:35 AM EDT reply actions  

I don't think most current performance dictates trade value

At least I hope not. I imagine Major League GMs are intelligent enough to understand the ups and downs of a baseball season. Pena’s value may be lower then it was in April, but I doubt it’s that heavily influenced by his recent slump.

Kazmir is a slightly different case because he appeared to lose everything. I just don’t know if one start changed his value all that much.

by tallyray on Jul 29, 2009 9:48 AM EDT up reply actions  

Kazmir Probably Needs To Show More

I agree with that.
But I’ll give you an analogy.
When you buy a house in a nice neighborhood.
If the curb appeal is bad regardless of how nice it’s neighbors houses are, you still are apt to offer less for it, even though you know it just needs a little TLC.
You won’t get proper value for a player when he’s slumping. And in his case, a prolonged slump.

by s125405 on Jul 29, 2009 9:59 AM EDT up reply actions  

I don't follow that anology..

But again, I’d want to believe that GMs trade based on percieved value and not slumps.

I actually think GMs are much more likely to trade for a player who is slumping, thinking that they can turn him around to his true potential.

by tallyray on Jul 29, 2009 11:08 AM EDT up reply actions  

If we trade Kazmir, it's strictly a salary dump

You don’t trade 25 yo LHP with as much success as he’s had

by Raymondo on Jul 29, 2009 10:18 AM EDT up reply actions  

Kaz does have a lower career FIP than Lee

They’ve just been trending in different directions

by matthan on Jul 29, 2009 10:24 AM EDT up reply actions  

If Kaz were 30 and had injuries beyond what we've geard, i might agree

Now i know i’ll be baraged by posts saying pitchers don’t age as hitters

Lee, imo, is not in Lee’s class as far as stuff gies

They’re both headcases, straighten out Kaz’s head and you might have better than Lee

by Raymondo on Jul 29, 2009 10:27 AM EDT up reply actions  

What's wrong with Kaz's head?

I didn’t see anything on an injury report nor have I heard him mention migraines or anything of the sort.

I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.

by Sandy Kazmir on Jul 29, 2009 10:49 AM EDT up reply actions  

When all else fails, blame mental mistakes...

Apparently Kazmir is a headcase. A few more bad starts and Price will be a headcase as well.

by tallyray on Jul 29, 2009 11:09 AM EDT up reply actions  

Kazmir is just an excuse machine

Attendance, mysterious injuries, the economy…

So long, Sweet Lime!

by PlayOnWords on Jul 29, 2009 11:10 AM EDT up reply actions  

Or he's a 25 year old trying to figure out why he's struggling...

The attendance thing was overblown IMO. I ignore any and all attendance comments because I’m sure they’re getting pressured to say something. No matter what they say it will always sound bad.

by tallyray on Jul 29, 2009 11:13 AM EDT up reply actions  

Plenty of players struggling on this team at one point in the year.

Only Kaz has consistently made excuses. I’m sure BJ has plenty of white hate in him right now but he hasn’t said a damn thing.

So long, Sweet Lime!

by PlayOnWords on Jul 29, 2009 11:30 AM EDT up reply actions  

FWIW

In 2007 and 2008, Carlos’ best months were June, August, September. His Julys haven’t quite been this bad, though.

So long, Sweet Lime!

by PlayOnWords on Jul 29, 2009 10:05 AM EDT reply actions  

Honestly that type of analysis isn't worth much

Looking at monthly splits is virtually worthless.

by matthan on Jul 29, 2009 10:11 AM EDT up reply actions  

Pena will have a better slash line the rest of the way

He is just better than this. The odds of him performing like this the rest of the way is small

by matthan on Jul 29, 2009 10:25 AM EDT up reply actions  

Might be OT, but what's Burrell's contract look like?

Team or player option next year? Is he gone after this year?

www.bucem.com - SBNation's source for all things Buccaneer

by Buc Wild on Jul 29, 2009 10:25 AM EDT reply actions  

Ooooof

How does his contract play out? He still here? Could we even move him? Is that an option?

www.bucem.com - SBNation's source for all things Buccaneer

by Buc Wild on Jul 29, 2009 10:32 AM EDT up reply actions  

Might as well just hold onto him and hope that he rebounds.

Should he continue to hit like shit, he wouldn’t have any value anyway. Might as well let the contract play out and see if he rebounds.

I do think he’ll bounce back, though.

by Suttree on Jul 29, 2009 10:35 AM EDT up reply actions  

It just seems interesting that we are exploring moving Pena

due to salary, but Burrell is right there in terms of batting stats and contract value. Guess Los probably would fetch more due to glove, and SAR (Smiles over replacement)

www.bucem.com - SBNation's source for all things Buccaneer

by Buc Wild on Jul 29, 2009 10:42 AM EDT up reply actions  

If there is something we can get back.

Absolutley yes. We have Willy Aybar, although is defense is very subject, we have options in Chris Richard or Rhyne Hughes. What would I want for Carlos Pena, nothing major maybe catching depth in the minors or 2B help.

In the name of Shinji Mori, we shall win!

by thebaddancingraysfan on Jul 29, 2009 10:40 AM EDT reply actions  

If you're talking about Chris Richard or Rhyne Hughes as a full-time starting 1B

Then we might as well just see if we can get Steve Cox back from Japan, because that’s the kind of production we’ll get out of them.

Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."

by Brickhaus on Jul 29, 2009 11:18 AM EDT up reply actions  

Oooh in the words of SRQ, "I always liked Cox."

I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.

by Sandy Kazmir on Jul 29, 2009 11:24 AM EDT up reply actions  

False

Swav or Die (>'-')> <('-')> <('-'<)
For the lulz

by SRQman on Jul 29, 2009 11:25 AM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah, you STILL like Cox.

Brad Ziegler had a scoreless inning streak. Brad Ziegler had not met BJ Upton.

by P Brady on Jul 29, 2009 11:33 AM EDT up reply actions  

BAHAHAHAHA

Sick burn brophus

I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.

by Sandy Kazmir on Jul 29, 2009 11:34 AM EDT up reply actions  

BRO FIST

Brad Ziegler had a scoreless inning streak. Brad Ziegler had not met BJ Upton.

by P Brady on Jul 29, 2009 11:35 AM EDT up reply actions  

Bro love?

Swav or Die (>'-')> <('-')> <('-'<)
For the lulz

by SRQman on Jul 29, 2009 11:36 AM EDT up reply actions  

If you married Steve Cox your name would be Dick Cox

I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.

by Sandy Kazmir on Jul 29, 2009 11:39 AM EDT up reply actions  

Think about it

I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.

by Sandy Kazmir on Jul 29, 2009 11:39 AM EDT up reply actions  

in three years

Fields has the pop but, nothing else, really. At least nothing that we have seen thus far.

In the name of Shinji Mori, we shall win!

by thebaddancingraysfan on Jul 29, 2009 1:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

I am speaking purely with an eye for internal options.

Maybe the Rays could pick up someone on the waiver wire, but, dumping Pena and saving money makes cents. Get it?

In the name of Shinji Mori, we shall win!

by thebaddancingraysfan on Jul 29, 2009 1:26 PM EDT up reply actions  

I've got my trade music playtlist up:

Modest Mouse – Lonesome Crowded West
The Shins – Wincing The Night Away
Animal Collective – Merriweather Post Pavillion

Brad Ziegler had a scoreless inning streak. Brad Ziegler had not met BJ Upton.

by P Brady on Jul 29, 2009 11:40 AM EDT reply actions  

Don't you usually listen to emo music?

Swav or Die (>'-')> <('-')> <('-'<)
For the lulz

by SRQman on Jul 29, 2009 11:45 AM EDT up reply actions  

What the fuck?

Brad Ziegler had a scoreless inning streak. Brad Ziegler had not met BJ Upton.

by P Brady on Jul 29, 2009 11:47 AM EDT up reply actions  

I love pretentious song titles.

I’ll admit to loving Dillinger Four’s song titles, though, which are in a similar vein.

Super Models Don’t Drink Colt .45
Super Powers Enable Me to Blend in with Machinery
A Floater Left with Pleasure in the Executive Washroom
SELLTHEHOUSESELLTHEKIDSSELLTHECARFORGETITI’MNEVERCOMINGBACKFORGETIT

by Suttree on Jul 29, 2009 11:46 AM EDT up reply actions  

Atom and his Package had the best song titles

Tim Allen isn’t Very Funny
Lord It’s Hard to be Happy When You’re Not Using the Metric System
Books My Dog, the Box, Brian Sokel and Me
If You Own the Washington Redskins You’re a Cock

Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."

by Brickhaus on Jul 29, 2009 11:53 AM EDT up reply actions  

If You Own the Washington Redskins You’re a Cock

That’s more of a true statement

Brad Ziegler had a scoreless inning streak. Brad Ziegler had not met BJ Upton.

by P Brady on Jul 29, 2009 11:53 AM EDT up reply actions  

I love Lonesome Crowded West

All-purpose music

I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.

by Sandy Kazmir on Jul 29, 2009 11:50 AM EDT up reply actions  

Anyone who says that album sucks is not an acquaintence of mine.

Brad Ziegler had a scoreless inning streak. Brad Ziegler had not met BJ Upton.

by P Brady on Jul 29, 2009 11:55 AM EDT up reply actions  

I know few people that have sat and listened and 0 that didn't like it

I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.

by Sandy Kazmir on Jul 29, 2009 11:56 AM EDT up reply actions  

I bet if communists or the Boston Red Sox listened to it they wouldn't like it.

Brad Ziegler had a scoreless inning streak. Brad Ziegler had not met BJ Upton.

by P Brady on Jul 29, 2009 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions  

Red Sox Fan: What, this isn't Flogging Molly, how come the songs sound different from each other?

Have you listened to any Built To Spill?

I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.

by Sandy Kazmir on Jul 29, 2009 12:01 PM EDT up reply actions  

Built to Spill? No, I'd have to put it on my list.

Heard of Black Moth Super Rainbow?

Brad Ziegler had a scoreless inning streak. Brad Ziegler had not met BJ Upton.

by P Brady on Jul 29, 2009 12:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

Nope

Is it rocky?

I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.

by Sandy Kazmir on Jul 29, 2009 12:04 PM EDT up reply actions  

No, but its worth a listen

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J3iopYskSKs

Brad Ziegler had a scoreless inning streak. Brad Ziegler had not met BJ Upton.

by P Brady on Jul 29, 2009 12:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

Too synthy for my taste, but what do I know

I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.

by Sandy Kazmir on Jul 29, 2009 12:13 PM EDT up reply actions  

Goin Out Your Mind

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Jul 29, 2009 12:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

Is that a band?

I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.

by Sandy Kazmir on Jul 29, 2009 12:04 PM EDT up reply actions  

I've only listened to a couple of albums and random songs

Thank you Pandora

I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.

by Sandy Kazmir on Jul 29, 2009 12:10 PM EDT up reply actions  

NONONONO

11:09am: Rosenthal and Morosi report that the Phillies are discussing a trade for Cliff Lee and possibly another player that would send Knapp, Carrasco, Jason Donald and Lou Marson to Cleveland.

Brad Ziegler had a scoreless inning streak. Brad Ziegler had not met BJ Upton.

by P Brady on Jul 29, 2009 12:16 PM EDT reply actions  

You realize this means Halladay becomes a red sock, right?

Brad Ziegler had a scoreless inning streak. Brad Ziegler had not met BJ Upton.

by P Brady on Jul 29, 2009 12:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

Who are they giving up?

I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.

by Sandy Kazmir on Jul 29, 2009 1:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

They will get Halladay just because they are the Red Sox and that's why Gammons wants.

ESPN will just hand them the World Series trophy now. Or will have an hour special on what will the Yankees do to respond.

In the name of Shinji Mori, we shall win!

by thebaddancingraysfan on Jul 29, 2009 1:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

You guys should just stop watching ESPN

Cancel your cable, put that money towards MLB.tv and just watch the highlights as well as your favorite games every night, you can learn more with your eyes than you ever can with your ears.

I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.

by Sandy Kazmir on Jul 29, 2009 1:35 PM EDT up reply actions  

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