Getting Defensive About the Offense

by R.J. Anderson on Jul 30, 2009 12:25 PM EDT Comment 70 comments

The approach hasn't changed:

Discipline	O-Swing	Swing	Z-Swing	Z-Contact	O-Contact	Zone
Seasonal	23	44.1	66.2	86	61	48.8
July	23.9	43.7	65.4	86.1	62	47.6

The luck has:

Tell-tale	BB	K	HR/FB	BABIP
Seasonal	10.7	22.7	11.3	0.313
July	10.6	24.5	7.6	0.278

But it's still the same pattern as last year:

0809_medium

Here's the thing, every offense goes through these stretches. The Rays have a .349 team wOBA, the only team with a wOBA over .350 is the Yankees. The Angels are at .348, the Phillies at .346, and the Red Sox at .344. Throw all five teams wOBA by month and this is what you get:

wOBA	April	May	June	July
Rays	0.351	0.362	0.373	0.303
Angels	0.338	0.325	0.35	0.378
Phillies	0.354	0.355	0.322	0.353
Red Sox	0.357	0.35	0.344	0.322
Yankees	0.365	0.365	0.35	0.372

The Rays had the highest tally entering July and now have the lowest. This is the best the Yankees offense has played, and guess what, the Rays were better in June. With the exception of that well-oiled machine playing in a sandbox, every other good offensive team has went through at least one poor offensive month. The Angels had May, the Phillies June, the Red Sox have July, and the Rays have July. Yes, the low sucks, but the high was ridiculous last month. Having an egregiously poor month is really nothing new.

Only two teams since World War 2 have scored 1,000+ runs in a season. The 1950 Boston Red Sox and the 1999 Cleveland Indians; here's their monthly OPS breakdown:

April: .893

May: .852

June: .839

July: .849

August: .807

Sept/Oct: .812

Look, two ‘down' months! Unfortunately we don't have the 1950 splits available, but if we lower the runs scored threshold to 950 we get some more teams to look at.

Team	Year	April	May	June	July	August	Sept/Oct
SEA	1996	0.855	0.882	0.873	0.879	0.789	0.822
CHA	2000	0.885	0.725	0.895	0.871	0.78	0.794
COL	2000	0.813	0.906	0.867	0.69	0.819	0.818
NYA	2007	0.768	0.782	0.802	0.916	0.848	0.841
NYA	1998	0.81	0.784	0.767	0.79	0.803	0.825
COL	1996	0.796	0.822	0.918	0.775	0.869	0.759
BOS	2003	0.811	0.837	0.945	0.869	0.834	0.803
CLE	1996	0.837	0.841	0.841	0.859	0.852	0.866
CLE	2000	0.798	0.886	0.794	0.856	0.854	0.826

Going team-by-team:

SEA had two poor months (relative to the rest of their year.)

CHA had three.

COL had one out of this world bad month.

NYA had two, maybe three.

NYA had one.

COL had two.

BOS had two lackluster months.

CLE had none.

CLE had two.

What comes next is the volatility argument. So here's what I did. I took each team's RPG, rounded that up or down (because I wasn't willing to go by hand to see whether a team scored 6.04 runs that day or not), took total number of games over that average and divided it by total games played. Yes, the Rays rank last, but this is against the best offensive teams of all time. Nobody, but nobody, is claiming the Rays to be that good offensively. If the Rays average 5 runs for the entire season they would still score at least 140 runs fewer than the worst run scoring offense on this list.

Team	Year	AVG R/G	%G > *	%G < *
SEA	1996	6.17	0.51	0.49
CHA	2000	6.04	0.48	0.52
COL	2000	5.98	0.48	0.52
NYA	2007	5.98	0.53	0.47
NYA	1998	5.96	0.48	0.52
COL	1996	5.93	0.48	0.52
BOS	2003	5.93	0.52	0.48
CLE	1996	5.91	0.5	0.5
CLE	2000	5.86	0.49	0.51
TBA	2009	5.18	0.45	0.55

The difference between 45% and 48% is 5 games - cue someone making the "But that gets us into the playoffs..." comment (Yes, if we hold them to less than 5 runs that day), but all that talk about how streaky we are is pretty much moot. Stacked up to the greatest offenses ever, based purely on runs scored, we're fine. This isn't wOBA, or expected runs scored, or anything like that. This is how many times a Rays player has stepped on the plate and had it count on the scoreboard.

We'll be fine. Seriously.

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Wreck'd.

by Suttree on Jul 30, 2009 12:29 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

x 2

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by Buc Wild on Jul 30, 2009 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Wow, great info in here

Any iea what cause the July swoon for TB? This could be useful info for any team. Be nice to keep this pinned and updated as info is available

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by Buc Wild on Jul 30, 2009 12:30 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

BJ, Pena, and Batrick all collectively losing control of the strike zone.

by Suttree on Jul 30, 2009 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yep - plate discipline has gone to hell in a handbasket for a few guys

As a team, I believe the Rays were dead last in K% for July

Dockoftherays.com

by Jason Collette on Jul 30, 2009 12:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm excited for Raymondo to say,"Yeah, but do you see them recovering?"

And the answer is “of course” because good baseball players don’t hit well every single month unless your name is Albert Pujols or Barry Bonds.

Also, good players don’t suddenly lose all ability to play baseball. Unless your name is Pat Burrell.

by Suttree on Jul 30, 2009 12:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm concerned that a couple simply are not good hitters

by Raymondo on Jul 30, 2009 1:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

With the exception of the catchers

There’s about two players in the lineup with shaky history. Zobrist and Bartlett, and we know the latter is hitting well, well, well over his head.

by R.J. Anderson on Jul 30, 2009 1:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

For various reasons

I’m concerned with Pena, Burrell and Upton ever achieving near career high numbers again

by Raymondo on Jul 30, 2009 1:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Why would near career high numbers matter?

Worry about their present true talent level, not what they did from 2000 to 2005.

by R.J. Anderson on Jul 30, 2009 1:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Their present numbers are scary

by Raymondo on Jul 30, 2009 1:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Whoosh.

by R.J. Anderson on Jul 30, 2009 1:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

In the case of Pena and Burrell age must be considered

In Upton’s case, and no personal attack intended, could we have set the bar too high?

i think many think he’s a 300/380/480 with 20-25 HR, is that too much?

by Raymondo on Jul 30, 2009 1:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'd take Upton's 2008 season every year.

by R.J. Anderson on Jul 30, 2009 1:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

So not the allstar many predicted

And i use the term ‘all-star’ only in the general rather than ASG meaning

by Raymondo on Jul 30, 2009 1:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

5 win center fielders are all-stars.

by R.J. Anderson on Jul 30, 2009 1:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Is there any history or benchmark for how long Upton or PtB's injuries take to come back from?

And on the “trade CC” front, He’s come out and said that this turf is killing his legs, so while he’s young age-wise, would we be apt to consider him to be older than his listed age due to wear on those knees? Might be a dumb question, but could be a (non-quantifiable) factor.

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by Buc Wild on Jul 30, 2009 1:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

24.5% for July vs 22.7% for season

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Jul 30, 2009 1:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The offense goes as Carlos Pena goes!

www.draysbay.com

by Tommy Rancel on Jul 30, 2009 12:32 PM EDT via mobile reply actions 0 recs

Smiling?

I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.

by Sandy Kazmir on Jul 30, 2009 12:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You are good sir

I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.

by Sandy Kazmir on Jul 30, 2009 12:37 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

The real question is

is the expected regression here going to be enough to catch the Sawx or Yanks?

by BJ the Bossman on Jul 30, 2009 12:56 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Good article, but does the seasonal plate discipline break down include July?

If so then that is going to skew the results towards July. If you took out July you’d see bigger gaps between what we did from the start of the season through June and with July.

by matthan on Jul 30, 2009 12:58 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

This is a good point

RJ should take July out of the season numbers if it isn’t already.

by RaysTheRoof on Jul 30, 2009 1:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

he shouldn't do that

because when comparing our season numbers to other full season numbers having that July month out of there might give results skewed in our favor as opposed to even throughout the teams.

That being said, this is a good point in terms of trying to see waht our true talent level is within our own pieces, so, in that regard, go ahead, but I felt I should put that caveat in there.

by Navi's_Navy on Jul 30, 2009 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

Right, but in that context he was comparing how we've performed over the season as compared to July

Then he pointed out the season numbers closely resembled July. Considering July has made up of around ~ 25% of the season so far it is not that surprising that the season numbers would be somewhat close to July. It would be best to compare the 75% thats already happened vs the 25% that took place in July.

But yes of course if we are comparing our season long numbers against other teams season long numbers then we have to keep all our months intact.

by matthan on Jul 30, 2009 2:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Agreed.

Here are the monthly OSwing:

April: 21.3%
May: 21.6%
June: 25.4%
July: 23.9%

As you can see, the discipline got much worse in June and July.

Michel may have something to do with it. He’s at 37.5% this month.

by tallyray on Jul 30, 2009 3:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Can't argue with the numbers, but with early BP woes

putting us behind the 8 ball, July was the wrong month to pick for a slump

I still maintain and to anextent the early season rundiffeential supports it, that the Rays stats were padded by a goodly number of blowouts, masking a year long drought by this offense

A few 10+ RS games certainly help

by Raymondo on Jul 30, 2009 1:00 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Nothing a POWER ARM can't help

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Jul 30, 2009 1:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Shapiro seems to think so

by Raymondo on Jul 30, 2009 1:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Just a random thought i had

Remember in ’07 Joe Magrane predicting 30 HR/yr from about everyone but the water boy?

Young, Dukes, Upton to name a few

by Raymondo on Jul 30, 2009 1:25 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

If you' believe everything Joe Magrane says, you need help.

by Suttree on Jul 30, 2009 1:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

As I posted in a different thread

Every single player not named Dioner Navarro is having a worse wOBA month in July than their season wOBA. That is as teamwide a slump as you can have.

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Jul 30, 2009 1:29 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

OT:Give back the rings

ESPN

Report: Manny, Ortiz tested positive
Comment Email Print Share
ESPN.com news services

by Raymondo on Jul 30, 2009 1:33 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

TESTED POSITIVE FOR WHAT????

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by Buc Wild on Jul 30, 2009 1:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

HAIR EXTENSIONS

by Suttree on Jul 30, 2009 1:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz were among the 104 major league players listed as having tested positive for performance-enhancing drugs in 2003, lawyers with knowledge of the results told The New York Times.

by Raymondo on Jul 30, 2009 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He was being sarcastic.

by Suttree on Jul 30, 2009 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

If I can add a few more #'s

HR/FB at 7.9% vs 11.3% for the season
Batted Ball Types for July: 19.7% LD, 37.4% GB, 42.9% FB
Rays BABIP by type for Season: .734 LD, .238 GB, .121 FB
That gives you an xBABIP of .286, only slightly ahead of the true BABIP of .278
Warning track fly balls have been a killer. When the slugging is down, the strikeouts are costlier.

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Jul 30, 2009 1:40 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

To add....

Sign lady must die.

by EminenceFront on Jul 30, 2009 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Pretty much every stat in that chart takes a negative spike in July.

Sign lady must die.

by EminenceFront on Jul 30, 2009 1:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Fair wuestion?

Find another contending team with such a sharp entire month drop-off, or for that matter any team who has drifted this far from the norm for an entire month

by Raymondo on Jul 30, 2009 2:15 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

No, do the research yourself.

by Suttree on Jul 30, 2009 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Do you not read the post?

Swav or Die (>'-')> <('-')> <('-'<)
For the lulz

by SRQman on Jul 30, 2009 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Raymondo doesn't have time to do anything but skim.

by Suttree on Jul 30, 2009 2:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Why don't you read something for once?

Going team-by-team:

SEA had two poor months (relative to the rest of their year.)

CHA had three.

COL had one out of this world bad month.

NYA had two, maybe three.

NYA had one.

COL had two.

BOS had two lackluster months.

CLE had none.

CLE had two.

Sign lady must die.

by EminenceFront on Jul 30, 2009 2:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Don't the NYY lead all teams in RS and HR, yet they've had

3 Rays type (July) months of offense?

This i gotta see to believe

by Raymondo on Jul 30, 2009 2:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Reading comprehension isn't a big priority for you?

The NYA team with three bad months was the 2007 team, a team that won the wild card.

by Suttree on Jul 30, 2009 2:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Which, if you must know, led MLB in runs by a wide margin that year.

by Suttree on Jul 30, 2009 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well, put the playoff tix on sale now

by Raymondo on Jul 30, 2009 2:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You lose all bitching priviliges when you refuse to read a post before arguing against it.

by Suttree on Jul 30, 2009 2:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

and when proven wrong, respond with a totally non analytical quip

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Jul 30, 2009 2:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Snarky is easy, comedy is hard.

by Suttree on Jul 30, 2009 2:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ok Zo, how is this then?

Of the top 5 teams he exampled for wOBA, none came close to the Rays low mark of 303 in July

by Raymondo on Jul 30, 2009 3:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

What is your point?

Its been a historically bad month. The point great offensive teams have awful months. Just b/c ours as has been more awful, does not mean our team is bad.

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Jul 30, 2009 3:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Nor does it mean it's impossible for us to rebound.

Also, again, if we had this bad of a month and we’re still only 4 GB from the wild card… that’s a good thing.

by Suttree on Jul 30, 2009 3:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

My point is this, while those teams may have

dipped down to 325-330 wOBA it’s still possible to create enough offense to win

At 303, you stand two chances, and slim just left the room

by Raymondo on Jul 30, 2009 5:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't think anyone has ever argued that the team's performance hasn't been frustrating.

I’m pretty sure everyone’s agreed the offense has been an alleyway abortion.

This is merely to show that it happens – we’ve just taken a particularly bad nose dive. We’ll rebound.

by Suttree on Jul 30, 2009 6:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

To be fair, none of the drop-offs of the NYA 2007 team

were as dramatic as the TB2009 July drop-off.

by RaysTheRoof on Jul 30, 2009 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Losing approx 60 wOBA points from the season average

is a massive fail.

by RaysTheRoof on Jul 30, 2009 2:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Word.

by Suttree on Jul 30, 2009 2:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

No one challenges this this

The games are just as frustrating to fans who don’t make rash statements, as those who do. I think sometimes that point gets lost.

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Jul 30, 2009 3:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Once upon a time,

this guy fell off the Sunshine Skyway. And guess what? He survived! Here are some stats to prove it:

of guys who fell off the Skyway: 1.0
of guys in the same who survived: 1.0

So, clearly, everybody else who falls off the Skyway is due for a major regression of luck and will soon be laughing heartily about their little mishap while drinking a beer with the president. Yay!

by zeng8r on Jul 30, 2009 7:49 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Thanks for your input.

by Suttree on Jul 30, 2009 8:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm sorry, are you mentally unfit or just trolling?

Because either way, I can help you out.

by R.J. Anderson on Jul 30, 2009 8:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

This is a good and smart comment and you are a good and smart commenter

Support the Type Strong Movement, Like This Little Lady Does
Let's work together to combat Terminal Rocco Disease.

by Top Gun Numba 1 on Jul 30, 2009 8:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

A friend of mine had a girl stare him in the eyes on that bridge before jumping off and killing herself

Not sure if you want to joke about that.

I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.

by Sandy Kazmir on Jul 31, 2009 2:04 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

dont know if you already know this

but im on my phone and dont feel like checking 1,000 comments, anyway switching around AM today i heard ‘draysbay’ it was steve duimeg basically giving you props for your graphs and stats, mentioning this graph and quoting it, also said rj should be in an mlb front office if he isnt already, good stuff

by Toe Finch on Jul 30, 2009 8:49 PM EDT via mobile reply actions 0 recs

DANCE PUPPETS, DANCE

I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.

by Sandy Kazmir on Jul 31, 2009 2:04 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

A warning? For "trolling"? Really?

I’ll try being less parable-ic : The original post might impart a bit of hope to the hopeless, but it’s statistically meaningless.

You can’t predict future events by examining data from completely different situations. The performance of the 1996 Indians (or any other team) has absolutely no bearing on the future performance of the 2009 Rays. None. Zero.

You flip a fair coin 10 times and it comes up heads 10 time. What’s the chances that it’s going to come up heads the 11th time? Still 50%, the oft-misunderstood and misused “regression to the mean” be damned.

by zeng8r on Aug 1, 2009 2:49 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs