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Around SBN: The Amateur Mathematics Of Linsanity

Evan Longoria and Pat Burrell Join Dioner Navarro In the Slump

Dioner Navarro is feeling the heat. A year after being an all star, Navarro is making a legitimate case for being the worst player in baseball. Navi is hitting .214/.244/.321 with just seven walks in 252 plate appearances. His plate discipline is a complete mess as R.J. illustrated and his O-Swing of 26.5% is a career high. However, over the last 30 days the Rays have had bigger offensive problems than Dioner Navarro.

Star-divide

Pat Burrell has been in a season long slump. Of course, there was a neck injury that sidelined him for a month, however, neck injury or not, .222/.335/.305 is not getting it done. Burrell is approaching 200 plate appearances and has a combined eight extra base hits. B.J. Upton has seven XBH in the last 12 games. I'm not calling Pat the Bat, Pat the Bust, but clearly his production is not what any of us imagined. Over the last 30 days, Burrell is hitting .167/.310/.288. Dioner Navarro is actually been better over the last month hitting .227/.263/.360. Both are poor and both are everyday players.

A while ago, I wrote about Evan Longoria's mini slump. That mini slump has turned into a bonafide month long slump and we might have the hamstring injury to blame. In the 26 games since his return to the lineup, Longoria's batting average of .214 is actually lower than Navarro's over the same span. His overall line since the injury is .214/.316/.381. Longoria's BABIP over the past month is .254 so it's not completely all bad luck. Since tweaking the hammy on 6/2/09, his K% is up over 26% and he's swinging at 28% of pitches outside the zone. Luckily, Longoria's defense has remained solid despite the injury. I know the fans voted Longo #1 in the home run derby, but it's probably best if he skipped the even which he has already hinted at.

Getting Longoria healthy should fix his problems. Even with the recent slump, his OPS is .914 on the season. The injury is more of a concern than the production to me. We've seen this type of season before from Dioner Navarro. That's not an excuse, but with the available options, there isn't much room to make a deal. I'd like to see John Jaso get a shot, but obviously the Rays organization knows something more about his defense than we do. Burrell may be the most confusing of all. We all knew we were getting a streaking player, however I didn't expect the streak to go from bad to worse. Is it time to free Willy?

The Rays are facing another July swoon, hopefully they can duplicate the success after the all star break that they did a season ago. To do that, all three players mentioned above are going to need to pick up the slack. The time is NOW.

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Burrell's slump began April 6

The 30 day numbers on both are startling

by Raymondo on Jul 6, 2009 11:06 AM EDT reply actions  

The interesting stat on Burrell was brought up by me

shortly after he signed. I questioned his drastically low numbers when he appeared as a DH in inter league games

As usual, it was brushed off with ‘sample size’ remarks

He needs to get back to the NL and play LF, he’s no DH

by Raymondo on Jul 6, 2009 11:09 AM EDT reply actions  

I don't know why you need to play the field

to hit the ball, How hard is it to adjust to a DH?

Come ON Pat the Bust, Navi can not have more homers than you

by 4QB on Jul 6, 2009 11:10 AM EDT up reply actions  

Not everyone can DH, and it was an issue from Day 1

but because it can’t be explained by metrics, it doesn’t exist

by Raymondo on Jul 6, 2009 11:14 AM EDT up reply actions  

Actually, general metrics show that there is an average decline in offensive production when switching from fielder to DH

I’m sure that there are cases where a player’s ability to hit literally evaporates when making that switch (See Gomes, Jonny).

Regardless, I don’t agree with the idea that he can’t be a DH, I’m sure he figures it out before the end of the season. At least he’s still finding a way to be somewhat productive.

I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.

by kericr on Jul 6, 2009 11:24 AM EDT up reply actions  

Maybe that's because there is zero history of it being a problem.

Seriously. Find some damning evidence of other NL sluggers unable to translate to the AL as a DH, and you might have an argument.

by Suttree on Jul 6, 2009 11:25 AM EDT up reply actions  

I actually looked the other day...

And it’s almost fifty-fifty…

The success stories were Thome, Cliff Floyd,

The declines were Burrell, Mike Jacobs, and some others who I now forgot…

The sample is always going to be small though…

by tallyray on Jul 6, 2009 12:10 PM EDT up reply actions  

For PtB

could it be a case of going from NL to AL (not looking at the DH issue)? He’s facing pitchers he hasn’t seen with a generally agreed upon higher level of competition.

by Buc Wild on Jul 6, 2009 11:28 AM EDT reply actions  

thats a possibility

Rays baseball + Colorado Football= amazing

by raysfan81 on Jul 7, 2009 9:21 AM EDT up reply actions  

E longo's

slump scares me but im sure he’ll get out of it soon- if he doesn’t play in the HR Derby.

Come ON Pat the Bust, Navi can not have more homers than you

by 4QB on Jul 6, 2009 11:35 AM EDT reply actions  

Navi's AB's this year

Make me cringe like Johnny Gomes AB’s did last year.

Please give Speedy Hernandez at least a platoon role. And Please more Aybar at DH.

Longo will pull thru. I noticed the last two days he has hit the ball harder and seems to be getting it back on track. Navi and Burrell just look lost at the plate.

Navis’ lack of plate discipline just makes me want to put my fist through the television and punch infants and kick puppies.

by PewterPirate55 on Jul 6, 2009 11:47 AM EDT reply actions  

No ...

The DH must hit for the pitcher …. With Lineup Snafu’s according to the rule book you lose the DH for that reason and the pitcher must hit.

The rule book specifically states that the DH must hit for the pitcher.

by PewterPirate55 on Jul 6, 2009 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions  

burrell has been a complete waste at the plate. seriously, we could be getting this production out of perez if he weren't hurt.

and saving a shit-ton of $$$ in the bargain. burrell’s ABs have been largely horrible, and half a season is already too long to have waited. hell, hinske could have given us this production, too.

by yeseggs on Jul 6, 2009 4:04 PM EDT reply actions  

I don't think Pat's at-bats have been horrible.

Either his bat speed is just fractionally worse or his timing is off, but the discipline has been there.

He wouldn’t be the first player in the history of baseball to have a terrible first half and tear it up during the second. So, Pat, if you’re reading this, please have a Hall of Fame second half. Thanks!

by Suttree on Jul 6, 2009 5:51 PM EDT up reply actions  

Joking aside, this is the parallel I'm drawing

His start is extremely slow, but he’s not having bad ABs. I doubt he’s gone all Greg Vaughn and lost his power, and he killed Pittsburgh. He might start to warm up a little bit later in the year and he’ll explode next.

If it works out that way, I’d be happy. If he gets hot sooner, all the better.

I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.

by kericr on Jul 7, 2009 9:43 AM EDT up reply actions  

*killed Philly and the Mets

Seriously, I’m doing this way too much

I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.

by kericr on Jul 7, 2009 9:43 AM EDT up reply actions  

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