Good News About David Price's Walk Rate

by R.J. Anderson on Jul 6, 2009 11:41 PM EDT

Yay!

Last	First	Team	K%
Santana	Johan	NYN	23.16
Gaudin	Chad	SDN	22.94
Burnett	A.J.	NYA	22.92
Nolasco	Ricky	FLO	22.54
Scherzer	Max	ARI	22.45
Beckett	Josh	BOS	22.43
Price	David	TBA	22.35
Rodriguez	Wandy	HOU	21.94
Volquez	Edinson	CIN	21.56
Lilly	Ted	CHN	21.46
Halladay	Roy	TOR	21.35

Oh dear God:

Last	First	Team	BB%
Willis	Dontrelle	DET	17.5
Price	David	TBA	16.76
Cabrera	Daniel	WAS	15.84
Volquez	Edinson	CIN	14.68
Sanchez	Jonathan	SFN	14.6
Hill	Rich	BAL	14.35
Kershaw	Clayton	LAN	14.17
Carmona	Fausto	CLE	14.09
Parra	Manny	MIL	13.1
Reyes	Anthony	CLE	13.07
Maine	John	NYN	12.64

Well...:

Last	First	Team	BB%	Ball%
Cabrera	Daniel	WAS	15.84	44.2
Reyes	Anthony	CLE	13.07	43.5
Willis	Dontrelle	DET	17.5	42.5
Carmona	Fausto	CLE	14.09	42.3
Volquez	Edinson	CIN	14.68	42
Parra	Manny	MIL	13.1	41.1
Kershaw	Clayton	LAN	14.17	40
Hill	Rich	BAL	14.35	39.5
Sanchez	Jonathan	SFN	14.6	39.1
Maine	John	NYN	12.64	39
Price	David	TBA	16.76	38.8

Hey, wait:

Last	First	Team	BB%	Ball%
Garza	Matt	TBA	9.78	38.8
Price	David	TBA	16.76	38.8
Palmer	Matt	ANA	9.51	38.8
Dempster	Ryan	CHN	9.74	38.7
West	Sean	FLO	10.71	38.7
Pettitte	Andy	NYA	8.41	38.6
Porcello	Rick	DET	8.36	38.6
Galarraga	Armando	DET	10.47	38.5
Romero	Ricky	TOR	8.14	38.4
Vargas	Jason	SEA	5.68	38.4
Pelfrey	Mike	NYN	8.09	38.4

One of those doesn't fit in, and I don't mean Jason Vargas.

All of that basically leads to one point: David Price isn't throwing enough balls to walk that many batters. Okay, well he is, but he really isn't. 62% of his pitches are strikes, either called, swinging, or foul. Pitchers capable of doing that are walking around 8-10%* of their total batters faced. Price is walking double that. Either Price is an outlier, or he's going to regress at some point.

This is good.

---

*Per StatCorner's glossary, the R^2 between ball% and walks is 0.56, so yeah, there's some reason to believe this is going to happen.

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Comments

Well

If he has 2 strikes and then proceeds to have 4 pitches fouled off and throws four balls, well he has a 60% strike rate…and a walk.

by jqueipo on Jul 7, 2009 12:37 AM EDT reply actions

The Kazmir curse

by Raymondo on Jul 7, 2009 8:43 AM EDT up reply actions

Yeah that is really the name of the game

If the foul % is sustainable then Price is throwing way too many balls.

by matthan on Jul 7, 2009 8:57 AM EDT up reply actions

his foul rate is at 21.4%

which would be about ninth in the Majors according to stat corner.

nestled in between Johan Santana and Roy Oswalt

The Rays Party

by therayspartyleader on Jul 7, 2009 12:51 AM EDT reply actions

Foulable

by rglass44 on Jul 7, 2009 9:49 AM EDT up reply actions

Hoo ray

For mobile commenting

www.draysbay.com

by Tommy Rancel on Jul 7, 2009 7:14 AM EDT via mobile reply actions

This is not going to end well

SOSH AUCTION to K ALS

by Sandy Kazmir on Jul 7, 2009 7:25 AM EDT up reply actions

Why no. No it won't.

Aside from the loading times, everything looks fine so far.

RD over and out.

by ReasonableDoubt on Jul 7, 2009 7:40 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions

I disagree

Hell, if it works on windows mobile 5, it’ll work on anything.

Except GDTs. That’s going to be a catastrophe.

I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.

by kericr on Jul 7, 2009 9:08 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions

I've actually posted on my phone quite a bit previously

I wasn’t able to post on the mobile sbnation site, but I would just get the full site and post that way. GDTs were impossible. The delay was horrible and to scroll was a total disaster.

by matthan on Jul 7, 2009 9:10 AM EDT up reply actions

I think the only way you could do this was via an iPhone, no other mobile browser has robust enough javascript to handle the AJAX here.

I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.

by kericr on Jul 7, 2009 9:19 AM EDT up reply actions

I've been doing this a hell of a lot lately:

*javascript support

I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.

by kericr on Jul 7, 2009 9:19 AM EDT up reply actions

I didn't think it will end well, because I have to think

that the belligerence and obnoxiousness will be elevated. Taking your guys thoughts into mind maybe we could try a separate GDT just for mobile users.

SOSH AUCTION to K ALS

by Sandy Kazmir on Jul 7, 2009 9:22 AM EDT up reply actions

The mobile site is not sufficient for GDTs.

I don’t think there is a need for it. It doesn’t update in real time like the standard browser.

I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.

by kericr on Jul 7, 2009 9:23 AM EDT up reply actions

All I hear is Great Glavin with the nerds and the com-PUTERS

SOSH AUCTION to K ALS

by Sandy Kazmir on Jul 7, 2009 9:24 AM EDT up reply actions

Um yeah. that doesn't make any sense.

I wouldn’t use a mobile GDT like I use the regular one. If I’m at the game, I might pop in and celebrate with you guys on a good play, but I’m not going to take the time to make a final solution joke or post a pic.

I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.

by kericr on Jul 7, 2009 9:25 AM EDT up reply actions

I haven't tried it yet

Do we have the capability to attach a picture from a phone’s camera? If so how easy?

SOSH AUCTION to K ALS

by Sandy Kazmir on Jul 7, 2009 9:29 AM EDT up reply actions

Not in that sense.

You’d have to upload the picture somewhere first beforehand.

That being said, that’s a fantastic idea. You should suggest it.

I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.

by kericr on Jul 7, 2009 9:33 AM EDT up reply actions

Just to flesh it out more, the ability for an upper-level mod (read: higher than us) to turn on and off picture attachments in specific threads; it's uploaded to assets.sbnation.com and automatically inserted into it's appropriate post.

I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.

by kericr on Jul 7, 2009 9:36 AM EDT up reply actions

One step at a time I suppose

but it would be pretty cool to have video/pics from a game uploaded in RT to a thread.

SOSH AUCTION to K ALS

by Sandy Kazmir on Jul 7, 2009 9:47 AM EDT up reply actions

From a web developer's POV, what I'm saying can be done in 1 step.

I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.

by kericr on Jul 7, 2009 10:04 AM EDT up reply actions

No wonder you get with more ladies than me.

SOSH AUCTION to K ALS

by Sandy Kazmir on Jul 7, 2009 10:39 AM EDT up reply actions

Hells Yeah

Look out for a black Lightning driving down Dale Mabry angerly typing about our fat C!

by RivalsTees on Jul 7, 2009 9:21 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions

Hooray Indeed!

I can go back to my old albeit brief posting ways now! Work just got a tad more tolerable!

by sattp on Jul 7, 2009 10:02 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions

Sports at work? That's much better than work at work!

Now work is a lot less soul crushing! Love it

by RivalsTees on Jul 7, 2009 10:43 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions

How often do hitters swing at Price?

In and out of the zone? You mentioned the foul % before. Could a lot of this just be explained by hitters standing in the box and allowing Price to just throw pitches?

by matthan on Jul 7, 2009 8:26 AM EDT reply actions

.

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3184&position=P#platediscipline

by R.J. Anderson on Jul 7, 2009 8:29 AM EDT up reply actions

I think this is right.

8 Rangers waited for a strike against them. The four that swung prior to strikes had hitters counts of 2-0 on them. As Rick Peterson would surely tell you, with a 2-0 count hitters BAA is .372 with a SLG of 1.058.

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Jul 7, 2009 8:56 AM EDT up reply actions

Looking at previous starts now

The Fish were more hacktastic. May do a post on findings

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Jul 7, 2009 8:57 AM EDT up reply actions

A combination of not swinging (esp out of zone swings) + lots of fouls can be deadly

A pitcher with that mix would have to have a really abnormally high strike % in order to keep his walks down. And since hitters aren’t swinging out of the zone his in the zone strike % would have to be extremely high.

I’m not sure if Price fits this yet, but we’ve all seen it with Kazmir at times. At times it seems like he really needs to pound the zone far more than most pitchers do in order to keep his walks down.

by matthan on Jul 7, 2009 9:01 AM EDT up reply actions

Like I remember with Kaz

At times it seems like he would have to throw 4 to 5 in the zone strikes in order to get a strikeout whereas just 4 (maybe 5) out of zone pitches results in a ball. It is extra tough for those types of pitchers.

by matthan on Jul 7, 2009 9:03 AM EDT up reply actions