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Lance Cormier Graduates From Mop-Up Man To Valuable Rays Reliever

Lance Cormier's role has evolved from mop-up man to one of their more recent set-up men in a span of months with the Rays.

More photos » by Mary Schwalm - AP

Lance Cormier's role has evolved from mop-up man to one of their more recent set-up men in a span of months with the Rays.

It's no secret that before the season I was self-appointed as the chairman of the Lance Cormier fan club. Since calling for the Rays to sign him in December of last year to arguing for him to be included on the roster out of spring, Lance Cormier has been to me what Gregg Zaun is to R.J. Cormier started the season as the Rays long man and got plenty of work early on thanks to ineffectiveness from Andy Sonnanstine and Jeff Niemann.

In April and May, Cormier made 18 appearances and racked up 37 innings. The Rays finally started getting good outings from their starting pitching and the need for a long man became less and less as the summer rolled on. In June and July, Cormier made just 13 appearances for a total of 18.1 innings. Cormier went through long stretches of inactivity including seeing no game action from 5/28-6/10 (12 days). From June 23rd through July 19th he made just four appearances. To his credit, Cormier has remained solid throughout the long patches of live game action.

Star-divide

 

G

IP

April

9

18

May

9

19

June

5

7

July

8

11.1

August

3

3.1

Not only has Cormier's workload seen its ups and downs, but so has the situations he's been used. Take a look at the month to month pLI (Average Leverage Index) and gmLI (Average Leverage Index when he enters a game) for him this year.

 

pLI

gmLI

April

0.22

0.26

May

0.81

0.93

June

0.7

0.61

July

0.27

0.29

August

1.75

1.93

In April, he was pretty much Mr. Mop-Up. One way or the other, Cormier saw a lot of innings in one sided games. In May, the Rays gave him a little bit more rope, but slowly took back some of that rope in June. By July he was back to being low-leverage king. However, with the injury to Chad Bradford as well as the game of roster shuffle being played by Andrew Friedman, Cormier has once again seen his role change.

Over the past two weeks, Cormier's name has been called from the pen as many times as J.P. Howell and Dan Wheeler. You'll also notice that he has earned the trust of his coaches and is now being used in big boy situations. SSS Alert, but in the month of August, his pLI is second highest only to J.P. Howell and his gmLI is the highest of any including Howell. Maybe we should start calling him Mr. Freeze.

Way back when signing Cormier was only a figment of my imagination, I compared him to Chad Bradford. No, he's not quite the extreme ground baller that Bradford is, but he is a predominately ground ball pitcher, who does not get many strikeouts and benefits from an above average defense. I was pretty surprised to see how true that comparison has played out. Over the last 10 seasons, only seven relief pitchers have pitched at least 50 innings with a sub 2.80 ERA and a K/9 of less than the 4.6 Cormier has right now. The Rays had one of those relievers on their team last year. His name is Chad Bradford. However, despite the fact that 2008 Bradford and 2009 Cormier had identical HR/9 rates, Cormier's 3.38 FIP is 0.70 lower that Bradford's 4.08.

With the addition of Russ Springer and the ineffectiveness of Jeff Bennett is Cormier's old role, there is a chance that Cormier could return to his low-level throne. Nonetheless, given the recent success he's had in mid-high leverage situations that might not happen. Cormier is arbitration eligible after the season and should see a nice raise of a little over a million dollars, but given the fact the he is about to put up back to back above average seasons he will once again be a bullpen bargain for the Rays.

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Yeah his whiff rate is down a touch.

I need to dig into his pitchfx bag and see if there’s anything that stands out.

Love the groundball rate though.

by R.J. Anderson on Aug 10, 2009 1:34 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

you know damn well

He only gets blamed for the negatives.

by RivalsTees on Aug 10, 2009 1:31 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah no one mentions how we've ran out a total of 6 guys to start a game this year.

The White Sox are the only other team I have to start that few, but my shizzle needs to be updated.

I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.

by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 10, 2009 1:37 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

How many did we have last year

Price, Talbot, and Niemann for a spot start.
Hammel early on.
Main 5.

So ~15 starters in 2 years? That’s hard to beat.

by R.J. Anderson on Aug 10, 2009 1:41 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Don't forget that Edwin Jackson was such a fantastic innings eater

I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.

by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 10, 2009 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think calling Jackson an innings eater is a bit harsh.

Livan Hernandez and pitchers who focus on quantity of innings rather than quality are inning eaters.

by R.J. Anderson on Aug 10, 2009 1:47 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

It was bait

Last year that’s basically what he was, though.

I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.

by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 10, 2009 1:49 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

For a fifth starter? He was fine.

The problem was always
A) Public perception != reality
B) He was getting expensive soon
C) We had equal and/or better talent lying a level away.

by R.J. Anderson on Aug 10, 2009 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, except the press conference afterward will be even more fun.

“I’ve got a little mechanical tweaking to do, mostly re-connecting my lower half to my torso and finding a way to replace my major organs.”

by Suttree on Aug 10, 2009 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Hey poopmouth

I don’t know who you are. I don’t know what you want. If you are looking for ransom, I can tell you I don’t have money. But what I do have are a very particular set of skills; skills I have acquired over a very long career. Skills that make me a nightmare for people like you. If you take this back right now, that’ll be the end of it. I will not look for you, I will not pursue you. But if you don’t, I will look for you, I will find you, and I will kill you.

I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.

by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 10, 2009 1:49 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Good luck

I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.

by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 10, 2009 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Nice "Taken" reference

though I hated the dumb bitch that got kidnapped, she deserved it.

by CCtheMVP on Aug 10, 2009 7:53 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm glad you gave a reasoned explanation of why you feel that way

I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.

by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 10, 2009 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

My order of people who get credit for healthy starters

1. LUCK — obvious
2. Friedman — dictates pace of development and innings thrown through out minors
3. Trainers — actually deas with injuries
4. Maddon — has direct control over # of pitches thrown and usage
5. Hickey — may have something to do with teaching sound mechanics, although I imagine most of this goes on in the minors.

by RaysTheRoof on Aug 10, 2009 2:39 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

WDJD

What Does Jim Do?

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Aug 10, 2009 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

He's in there ear everyday

He’s the first to know if anything is up.

I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.

by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 10, 2009 2:53 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Why not protest Tommy's current FrontPage piece on Cormier?

He argues a Cormier usage trend with a ton less evidence than matt presented about hickey. Almost all of the pieces on this site are about finding trends. matt did the same thing and actually applied some statistical analysis to it, but you disregard it while accepting other trends, for reasons I still don’t understand.

by RaysTheRoof on Aug 10, 2009 2:42 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Many folks have their preconceived notions and won't stray from it

I am certainly guilty of that sometimes. Also some folks take the word of some posters like it is absolute gospel. Take this article. Tommy mentioned (further down) that the basic gist was that Cormier is pitching well and can be now counted on virtually whenever. I agree with this. However I can easily see how some people can interpret the article as Cormier is now pitching in higher leverage. That is just false. Tommy did about 0 statistical work on that fact. Posting month to month changes, without doing any statistical work on it, and with the last month as the “high leverage” spot with just 3 games is utterly worthless in proving that point. He didn’t post any p-values or anything remotely close to that sort. Of course as he said in a comment his main point was just that Cormier is pitching well and can be counted on. However I can see how many posters have, and will, think that Cormier is now pitching in high leverage situations because well…they thought that is what Tommy Rancel said. If Jon Brett made a post using solid statistical evidence showing that Cormier has had no significant chance in his leverage using real statistical evidence then the bulk of this board would laugh it off. Thats the main problem with this board. While it is nice to see people using good baseball statistical metrics we still have a very long ways to go in terms of using good statistics.

This of course isn’t Tommys fault. I’d just like to see the board begin to trust the statistical analysis more than the person posting the article. If this blog is ever going to truly live up to its mission statement then we have to begin to do that.

Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks

by matthan on Aug 10, 2009 2:53 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

However I can see how many posters have, and will, think that Cormier is now pitching in high leverage situations because well…they thought that is what Tommy Rancel said.

That is quite a sweeping and unfounded generalization.

Your source for replacement level commentary

by RATW on Aug 10, 2009 3:15 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Matt's piece is about pitchers using more curveballs over changeups with Hickey.

What does that tell you. I have softened on my stance on Hickey, but it would be nice if he did get credit when things were going fine.

I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.

by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 10, 2009 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I know, I know

Just miss the guy, and the statement is true, I used the word since, not because

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Aug 10, 2009 3:16 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Maybe this is why Zo has slowed down

you’re affections have been directed at Michel and Dillon lately.

Get back on the Zo Wagon!

www.bucem.com - SBNation's source for all things Buccaneer

by Buc Wild on Aug 10, 2009 3:25 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Zo led the team in OPS in July

Are you implying that 10 days in August is a statistically proven trend?

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Aug 10, 2009 3:29 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

ABSOLUTELY

not. More pointing out your waning affections and wandering eyes. I dont need statistical analysis to show ZO has received less love in the last 2 months from you.

www.bucem.com - SBNation's source for all things Buccaneer

by Buc Wild on Aug 10, 2009 3:31 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

As a footnote

Zo doesn’t like to be forsaken as such. The articles, the twitter feed are rife with references to JP, Michel and JD, but nary a mention of Zorilla. Unacceptable.

www.bucem.com - SBNation's source for all things Buccaneer

by Buc Wild on Aug 10, 2009 3:36 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

In truth, he has become too mainstream

Need new projects to nurture

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Aug 10, 2009 3:37 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

FreeHickey

So long, Sweet Lime!

by PlayOnWords on Aug 10, 2009 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Ramos maybe

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Aug 10, 2009 3:39 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

FreeWilly(A)

So long, Sweet Lime!

by PlayOnWords on Aug 10, 2009 3:41 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

This post is sponsored by a p-value of .99

www.bucem.com - SBNation's source for all things Buccaneer

by Buc Wild on Aug 10, 2009 3:39 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well it was more than just that

But here is the point I think RaysTheRoof is making.

I showed at a significant level that a pitcher throws more curveballs the following year than the year before and less changeups the following year than the year before. When was the last time someone else posted the significance of something? That is a highly critical component that is left out of 95% of the analysis on this board.

If I just used “trends” the way it is used in nearly every article then I’d have posted that pitchers see their FIPs rise every single year with Hickey. There was a definite trend there. The difference was noticeable. But it wasn’t highly significant so I didn’t post it. However considering the standard that is used in most articles I could have easily passed it off as fact…

Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks

by matthan on Aug 10, 2009 3:12 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

It's left out of 95% of the analysis on this board because

A) People like Tom Tango and MGL have already discovered and proven its significance.
B) Most of the audience doesn’t care or wouldn’t understand anyways.

by R.J. Anderson on Aug 10, 2009 3:13 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah read my mind

It’s pretty rare to see something done from scratch here, a lot of it is just digging, compiling and presenting. A lot of it is cutting edge stuff like UZR, Pitch F/x, Hit F/x that will probably fall by the wayside for better models in the future, but everyone uses them now for lack of a better option. I do think Pitch F/x will be more of a gradual evolution, but UZR certainly has it’s critics.

I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.

by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 10, 2009 3:18 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

For the quantity that gets put out using established statistics

there isn’t much reason to

I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.

by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 10, 2009 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Nobody is asking anyone to create new statitics

The statistics we have now are plenty good enough. Just practice good statistics.

Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks

by matthan on Aug 10, 2009 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I have no problem with people posting opinions, trends, etc

As long as it isn’t posted as fact. I don’t expect people to be phD statisticians. I just don’t like when something is pretty like it is strong evidence when it is in fact not (or perhaps it is, but no work has been done showing so).

Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks

by matthan on Aug 10, 2009 3:22 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I type like crap during the day

presented not pretty

Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks

by matthan on Aug 10, 2009 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I get what you're saying regardless of your mastery of the language

Perhaps I’m guilty of that at times, but it’s been 3 years, 2 months and 15 days since I graduated college and work in a field that doesn’t require anything beyond rudimentary analysis. Perhaps you would like to help out when I’m guilty of this charge.

I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.

by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 10, 2009 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

OH LOOK AT ME I'M SANDY KAZMIR I WENT TO COLLEGE

Get off your high horse… and give me a five minutes alone with it.

by Suttree on Aug 10, 2009 3:28 PM EDT up reply actions   2 recs

and the lulz have left

www.bucem.com - SBNation's source for all things Buccaneer

by Buc Wild on Aug 10, 2009 3:31 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I almost spit sunflower seeds all over the screen

well done sir

I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.

by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 10, 2009 3:29 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm guilty of it all the time

Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks

by matthan on Aug 10, 2009 3:32 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I agree with B, but i disagree about A

A lot of work has been done, but not on the specific things these articles are about. I don’t question the work those people have done, because nearly all of it is grounded in strong statistics. However Tango hasn’t done work on say, whether Cormier is pitching higher leverage now. Or whether Longoria is truly slumping or if he is truly playing better. This isn’t the matter of testing whether FIP is strong. We know it is. This is more about questioning how some people apply it.

Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks

by matthan on Aug 10, 2009 3:19 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Tango doesn't have to go site to site making sure people apply his metrics properly

Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks

by matthan on Aug 10, 2009 3:36 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I honestly don't think you are understanding

It isn’t about the metrics. In this case it doesn’t matter if you use batting average or wOBA. I’m talking about how people use them. When someone says “So and so has a OPS of this and now an OPS of this” and leaves it at that. Perhaps adds maybe the size of the sample. That is most certainly not enough information to draw good conclusions from. That happens all the time here. It is nice information, but more information would allow for better conclusions.

Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks

by matthan on Aug 10, 2009 3:43 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Honestly you practice good statistics all the tme

Out of anyone here you preach sample size more than anything. Things like that is what I’m asking more of.

Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks

by matthan on Aug 10, 2009 3:44 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I mean, I'm willing to try and add more 'backbone' so to speak

But at some point it’s a bit unreasonable to run things that seem like common sense. See: David Price’s ball rates/walk rates.

by R.J. Anderson on Aug 10, 2009 3:46 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

For sure

Then it goes down to essentially putting a disclaimer into it. Of course it is hard for the author to do, but I just get the sense that people truly believe things when it isn’t exactly rock solid.

Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks

by matthan on Aug 10, 2009 3:50 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Fair enough

I fully understand that every piece is different. In a game recap I definitely do not expect someone to go in depth to that level. So saying that a certain player is now playing much better based upon a certain metrics is more acceptable in that format. However if someone is doing a piece on that specific player then I’d expect the statistics would go a bit deeper.

Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks

by matthan on Aug 10, 2009 3:50 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think most people realize the inherent small size of say month to month data

Comparing Longo’s OPS in June to May is going to come with certain caveats, but if you stay away from it period then it makes for a pretty boring site.

I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.

by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 10, 2009 3:59 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I might be in the minority, but I don't remember what half of those things are

Some of these metrics are new enough and while I can follow along, the minute we start getting into p-values and other stuff (not that it isn’t providing foundation) it inundates the reader with finding stastical analysis ON statistiacl analysis.

Doesnt mean anyone should ignore good processes (not using SSS for example), but some of it seems understood or implied. Perhaps Im wrong

www.bucem.com - SBNation's source for all things Buccaneer

by Buc Wild on Aug 10, 2009 3:49 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Right.

Which was sort of my point about people not caring/understanding.

by R.J. Anderson on Aug 10, 2009 3:51 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Right

when you are trying to create a new measure or deviate from a standard measure, you have to show the statistical significance. I agree 100%

But on somewhat more traditional or advanced metrics that are established, it becomes a game of diminishing returns.

www.bucem.com - SBNation's source for all things Buccaneer

by Buc Wild on Aug 10, 2009 3:54 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm not asking people to prove that FIP is actually significant

I know it is strong. That isn’t the debate here.

Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks

by matthan on Aug 10, 2009 3:54 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm not arguing for you or against you

I’m pointing out the disconnect. I’m not arguing that there shouldnt be a strong statistical foudnation, but if you (or anyone) starts prefacing every post with huge disclaimers on stats that most of us have long forgotten, it’s tough to read. Which doesnt make the article or point any less valid.

And again, as I said above, if you are trying to create a metric, then yea, you have to show the significance. And kudos to you for going that step. I surely couldnt.

www.bucem.com - SBNation's source for all things Buccaneer

by Buc Wild on Aug 10, 2009 3:57 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm an inventor

But really people should always be showing the significance of what they are saying.

And there is nothing wrong with making things up. Tango had to “make things up”

Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks

by matthan on Aug 10, 2009 3:54 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Fair enough

And I totally agree with some of the things I attempted that if I didn’t show the p-values then it should have been tossed out in a heartbeat. No doubt about that.

I guess I just like to see more of the “backbone” as RJ said. I like the statistics. I’m sure the bulk of the readership here doesn’t care about it so I’m in the minority. So I understand why it doesn’t get posted.

Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks

by matthan on Aug 10, 2009 3:57 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Anyone who watches the team on a day to day basis, and can read the names on the back of the shirts, can figure out that Cormier isn't suddenly the first guy out of the pen.

And anyone who can read the names on the back of the shirts can apply those skills to this article and realize that Tommy was never casting Cormier as the next BALL FOUR.

So long, Sweet Lime!

by PlayOnWords on Aug 10, 2009 3:26 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I don't really want any attention

I just don’t want people to be misinformed.

Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks

by matthan on Aug 10, 2009 3:25 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

We're all sheep here.

What RJ? You want me to cut myself?

Your source for replacement level commentary

by RATW on Aug 10, 2009 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

People aren't being misinformed.

Where were you in the regression threads when half the people were freaking clueless?

by R.J. Anderson on Aug 10, 2009 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

and the lulz have arrived

www.bucem.com - SBNation's source for all things Buccaneer

by Buc Wild on Aug 10, 2009 3:28 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well Hickey does

Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks

by matthan on Aug 10, 2009 3:30 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Just before JP left the bullpen, he received a text on his cell.

Jay Pee opened it to see his wife, blind-folded and beaten, holding an Excel spreadsheet that read: “IF YOU DON’T THROW 5 CURVES IN A ROW, I WILL KNEE RAPE YOUR WIFE – LOVE, MATTHAN”

by Suttree on Aug 10, 2009 3:31 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

That isn't what I meant

I just see no problem with someone pointing out when a post is lacking a strong statistical backing. Obviously some posters understand it and take some of the info at face value. Trend analysis is nice. However just in case someone takes it a bit more serious than what it should be taken then what is the problem with someone pointing out the faults in the statistics? Nobody is perfect.

Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks

by matthan on Aug 10, 2009 3:30 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Don't put those words in my mouth.

But you do have a holier than thou approach that almost certainly rubs most people the wrong way and that’s hurting your argument more than anything else.

by R.J. Anderson on Aug 10, 2009 3:31 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

Well that sucks for them

The numbers are the numbers. If they wish not to increase their knowledge because they don’t like the way I post then so be it. That is their loss.

If what matters is truly ""progressive statistical analysis and reasoned argument." then the name of the poster shouldn’t matter. We should all just imagine tht everyone is anonymous. The quality of the post and the statistics are what should matter.

If someone wants to ignore a 99% significance because I posted it and believe a simple SSS trend because someone else posted it then so be it. That is really their loss. As you said some people just don’t care enough or just simply do not understand it.

Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks

by matthan on Aug 10, 2009 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

You are making a mountain out of an ant hill.

Yes, SSS on Cormier moving up, but it that Bennett is the new long-man given his usage since joining the team. Isn’t that the whole point of the piece?

by R.J. Anderson on Aug 10, 2009 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

you do realize I included it was a SSS and I'm assuming if you're reading drb you know how much to read into these things

No where did I say Cormier is the king mr. shutdown closer and that is the gospel. And I hope nobody believes that based on this post.

Also we are here to have discussions and that’s why some posts are left open ended.

www.draysbay.com

by Tommy Rancel on Aug 10, 2009 3:46 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions   0 recs

WE DON'T HAVE A CLOSER

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Aug 10, 2009 3:50 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I know you did

I wasn’t attacking you. I just wanted to dig a bit deeper into the leverage issue. It wasn’t an attack on you.

Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks

by matthan on Aug 10, 2009 3:52 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Y'all bunch of sissies.

This is the internet! You can be irrationally angry over nothing without having to apologize!

Bad job by everybody here.

by Suttree on Aug 10, 2009 3:53 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I am really disappointed in RJ and matthan.

matthan was basically all, “Bitch, your shit weak.”
And RJ was all, “Listen, friend, let’s go out for a Slurpee and talk this through.”

So long, Sweet Lime!

by PlayOnWords on Aug 10, 2009 3:55 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

/end

I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.

by kericr on Aug 10, 2009 3:57 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

He sees through our hidden veil, RJ.

He knows our darkest secrets, those we forged in the barn in the wee hours of the night.

by Suttree on Aug 10, 2009 4:00 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Boston fans don't have much a of a place here

I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.

by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 10, 2009 4:02 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

What? Bitch is jealous?

You told me you told him, RJ. You told me he knew to let it go.

YOU LIED TO ME, AND THAT’S WHY I HAVE TO SKULL FUCK A BOSTON TERRIER.

by Suttree on Aug 10, 2009 4:08 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

That and you can't afford the catering for some of these fools

I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.

by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 10, 2009 4:13 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

SRQ:Cake::Mengele:Torture

I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.

by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 10, 2009 4:16 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Matt Stairs is on my team

I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.

by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 10, 2009 4:17 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Where would I play?

Swav or Die (>'-')> <('-')> <('-'<)
For the lulz

by SRQman on Aug 10, 2009 4:45 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Catcher

Where else would the fat kid go

I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.

by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 10, 2009 4:51 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

First?

Third? I can’t catch

Swav or Die (>'-')> <('-')> <('-'<)
For the lulz

by SRQman on Aug 10, 2009 4:53 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Bench

Brad Ziegler had a scoreless inning streak. Brad Ziegler had not met BJ Upton.

by P Brady on Aug 10, 2009 4:58 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I can catch I just can't play catcher..

I did play SS in a game once

Swav or Die (>'-')> <('-')> <('-'<)
For the lulz

by SRQman on Aug 10, 2009 4:59 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

But white

Swav or Die (>'-')> <('-')> <('-'<)
For the lulz

by SRQman on Aug 10, 2009 5:00 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

It's softball brah

I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.

by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 10, 2009 5:05 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Perhaps

Swav or Die (>'-')> <('-')> <('-'<)
For the lulz

by SRQman on Aug 10, 2009 5:10 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Winning has made me soft.

I don’t even flame trolls anymore.

by R.J. Anderson on Aug 10, 2009 3:59 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

hopefully we get the chance to get more data

On cormier in these situations, but the opportunies will continue to go to balfour, wheeler and howell as they should. I would put cormier right behind that group.

www.draysbay.com

by Tommy Rancel on Aug 10, 2009 3:58 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions   0 recs

you aren't even ranting like this in response to someone

I feel that in your little world you have an army of people shouting that Cormier is now Mr. High Leverage and you must prove them wrong so you can save the princess from the evil monster. No one ever said anything to the effect that Cormier is/should be the guy to take over in late-inning situations.

I read this (as I’m assuming it was meant to be read) as a piece regarding his performance from early season sparce outings production with current more traditional set-up man opportunities and production in them. You are/have already taken this way too far…

by Navi's_Navy on Aug 10, 2009 6:23 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Talk radio is by far the worst median

Nearly everything mentioned there is downright wrong. I’m not saying things here are wrong, just that sometimes it would be nice to go a bit further. Essentially it is nice to know someone is OPSing a bit higher now. For most people that is more than enough. Personally I like to know whether the difference is significant etc. So when that type of analysis is left out it just makes me more skeptical. It doesn’t mean its wrong though.

Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks

by matthan on Aug 10, 2009 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Using 3 games to show that his leverage is increasing?

I think we need to pause here. July had 8 games at very low leverage. Perhaps if we can split up July and see what type of outings he was having near the middle or end of the month. If we can’t do that then there really is no way we can draw any conclusions from this. Remember he pitched in an extra inning game where we used almost all of our pitchers. Everyone will have high leverage because of that.

I want to see Cormier get more important innings, but so far the evidence doesn’t really show that. He has definitely gone away from being purely the “long man”, but as Tommy noted that is probably more of a function of the SPs doing better than a performance based role change.

Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks

by matthan on Aug 10, 2009 1:53 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Last 30 days. Cormiers role hasn't changed....

Name pLI
J.P. Howell 2.24
Joe Nelson 1.53
Dan Wheeler 1.4
Chad Bradford 1.14
Randy Choate 1.13
Grant Balfour 1.1
Brian Shouse 0.72
Lance Cormier 0.61
Jeff Bennett 0.25
Dale Thayer 0.03
Russ Springer 0

The August numbers are inflated due pitching in two extra inning games out of the 3 he has pitched in August.

Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks

by matthan on Aug 10, 2009 1:59 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

? JP is our closer

Cormier is just a basic 6th/7th inning reliever

Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks

by matthan on Aug 10, 2009 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think the Joe Nelson hatred could be stifled by him

NOT HAVING THE SECOND HIGHEST pLI OVER THAT SPAN

I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.

by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 10, 2009 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

That could possibly have something to do with SSS also and the game where he created the insane high leverage situation against the fish

By walking the bases loaded

Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks

by matthan on Aug 10, 2009 2:12 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I never meant that he was the new Iceman, but

He’s not just a Jeff Bennett mop up man. He can’t control the situations he’s coming into, but he’s performed well all season.

www.draysbay.com

by Tommy Rancel on Aug 10, 2009 2:14 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions   0 recs

I agree that he has done very well

I just don’t see any evidence that his role has really changed other than pitching less innings per outing (which is just due to improvement in the SP).

Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks

by matthan on Aug 10, 2009 2:20 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

There is no trend

Unless we plan on going 11+ innings a couple times a week….

Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks

by matthan on Aug 10, 2009 2:21 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think we all read the artcile

I just don’t see the utility of trying to predict trends based on 3 innings pitched.

Cormier has been a good signing.

by RaysTheRoof on Aug 10, 2009 2:24 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

yeah, I agree

he’s been a solid pitcher. I’m not sold on his use actually changing though. Think Tommy needs a larger sample size to convince most of this.

by RaysTheRoof on Aug 10, 2009 2:21 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Good work as usual

i was thinking the same. This whole article was based off 3 innings, which in any circumstance is too small a sample

by RaysTheRoof on Aug 10, 2009 2:19 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah the 3 games with 2 of them being extra inning games where we emptied our bullpen

Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks

by matthan on Aug 10, 2009 2:20 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yes, the whole article is based off three innings

And not the fact that Lance Cormier went from a dude we signed to compete for a job into an above average relief pitcher regardless of role.

www.draysbay.com

by Tommy Rancel on Aug 10, 2009 2:20 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions   0 recs

Obviously I'm focusing on the leverage portion, which I disagree with. But I do agree with you 100% that he has been a very strong and valuable pitcher for us this year

He still has relatively the same role as before. It is just far more secure at this point.

Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks

by matthan on Aug 10, 2009 2:22 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

There really isn't room for Cormier at the top of the leverage chain anyway

With Howell, Wheeler and Balfour available they will get the call most of the time. However, if Cormier is called on in a big spot, I have full confidence he will come through. Of course now he won’t since we jinxed it, but overall you get the point. With the ever changing bullpen, his role may increase next year.

www.draysbay.com

by Tommy Rancel on Aug 10, 2009 2:25 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions   0 recs

No offense intended

I agree with the general idea that Cormier was a good signing and has pitched very well. Nice find by you and the Rays FO.

 I just don’t agree his use has substantially changed since the beginning of the season.

by RaysTheRoof on Aug 10, 2009 2:22 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

None taken, I'm not like R.J.

The idea I was going for was basically Cormier has changed from a guy who should be used to clean up the mess or eat innings into a guy that can really be counted on and valuable to the pen in multiple situations.

www.draysbay.com

by Tommy Rancel on Aug 10, 2009 2:30 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions   0 recs

do we even know how many appearances it takes to stabalize leverage?

I’m not a fan of leverage/leverage bases stats in the first place, so analysis like this doesn’t really appeal to me, but my (admittedly weak) understanding was that this is still relatively new (even within the world of “advanced” metrics). Would you analyze 5 innings over 4 appearances for any of the other metrics like tRA or FIP for a pitcher? Given the way our bullpen gets managed (generally progressively, but not as progressively as some people on here think, mind you) I’m not putting any stock into it, and despite the good amount of work for a relatively quick piece (and I mean no disrespect to Tommy by this) can we really take any of this as meaning anything.

The frequency of use is more important to me than the leverage of the situations if we are somehow trying to imply that Maddon trusts Cormier more now.

by Navi's_Navy on Aug 10, 2009 6:29 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Lance Cormier has been effective

He may lack the flash that other relievers have, but he gets the job done more often than not. Consistency is the most important thing.

by sofladude77 on Aug 10, 2009 1:55 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

This was some sort of cutting edge controversial piece

I could see this on Colbert: Nailed Him

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Aug 10, 2009 3:43 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

My thoughts as well.

Didn’t even look at the comments on it until now because it’s Cormier, what could people really be saying.

by rglass44 on Aug 10, 2009 3:45 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

WHO CARES ABOUT THAT FAT FUCK NOW THAT WERE ALL ZAUNBIES

I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.

by kericr on Aug 10, 2009 3:47 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Damnit, can't strike through in header

Meanwhile Navarro Freeman piece goes untouched :(

www.bucem.com - SBNation's source for all things Buccaneer

by Buc Wild on Aug 10, 2009 3:47 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I read the Freeman piece and actually had a question that I forgot to post.

It was about the annual salary of his contract. If I remember it I’ll post it.

by R.J. Anderson on Aug 10, 2009 3:51 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

OH BUT DILLON

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Aug 10, 2009 3:48 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

TOMMMY RANCEL IS A FRAUD

HE DIDN’T EVEN USE A P VALUE. NAILED HIM.

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Aug 10, 2009 3:49 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

At this very moment, matthan decides to start

RaysInlet.com, a warehouse of “Advanced statistical analysis and nose-thumbing at Jim Hickey”.

So long, Sweet Lime!

by PlayOnWords on Aug 10, 2009 3:48 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I'm not sure if this thread and specifically the sub-threads are

discrimanating against retards or a retard convention.

by Dbullsfan on Aug 10, 2009 7:13 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

YOU GOT A PROBLEM WITH RETARDS?

I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.

by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 10, 2009 7:25 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

like lil wayne says

I exchange v-cards with retards

by Dbullsfan on Aug 10, 2009 7:41 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

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