Lance Cormier Graduates From Mop-Up Man To Valuable Rays Reliever
It's no secret that before the season I was self-appointed as the chairman of the Lance Cormier fan club. Since calling for the Rays to sign him in December of last year to arguing for him to be included on the roster out of spring, Lance Cormier has been to me what Gregg Zaun is to R.J. Cormier started the season as the Rays long man and got plenty of work early on thanks to ineffectiveness from Andy Sonnanstine and Jeff Niemann.
In April and May, Cormier made 18 appearances and racked up 37 innings. The Rays finally started getting good outings from their starting pitching and the need for a long man became less and less as the summer rolled on. In June and July, Cormier made just 13 appearances for a total of 18.1 innings. Cormier went through long stretches of inactivity including seeing no game action from 5/28-6/10 (12 days). From June 23rd through July 19th he made just four appearances. To his credit, Cormier has remained solid throughout the long patches of live game action.
|
|
G |
IP |
|
April |
9 |
18 |
|
May |
9 |
19 |
|
June |
5 |
7 |
|
July |
8 |
11.1 |
|
August |
3 |
3.1 |
Not only has Cormier's workload seen its ups and downs, but so has the situations he's been used. Take a look at the month to month pLI (Average Leverage Index) and gmLI (Average Leverage Index when he enters a game) for him this year.
|
|
pLI |
gmLI |
|
April |
0.22 |
0.26 |
|
May |
0.81 |
0.93 |
|
June |
0.7 |
0.61 |
|
July |
0.27 |
0.29 |
|
August |
1.75 |
1.93 |
In April, he was pretty much Mr. Mop-Up. One way or the other, Cormier saw a lot of innings in one sided games. In May, the Rays gave him a little bit more rope, but slowly took back some of that rope in June. By July he was back to being low-leverage king. However, with the injury to Chad Bradford as well as the game of roster shuffle being played by Andrew Friedman, Cormier has once again seen his role change.
Over the past two weeks, Cormier's name has been called from the pen as many times as J.P. Howell and Dan Wheeler. You'll also notice that he has earned the trust of his coaches and is now being used in big boy situations. SSS Alert, but in the month of August, his pLI is second highest only to J.P. Howell and his gmLI is the highest of any including Howell. Maybe we should start calling him Mr. Freeze.
Way back when signing Cormier was only a figment of my imagination, I compared him to Chad Bradford. No, he's not quite the extreme ground baller that Bradford is, but he is a predominately ground ball pitcher, who does not get many strikeouts and benefits from an above average defense. I was pretty surprised to see how true that comparison has played out. Over the last 10 seasons, only seven relief pitchers have pitched at least 50 innings with a sub 2.80 ERA and a K/9 of less than the 4.6 Cormier has right now. The Rays had one of those relievers on their team last year. His name is Chad Bradford. However, despite the fact that 2008 Bradford and 2009 Cormier had identical HR/9 rates, Cormier's 3.38 FIP is 0.70 lower that Bradford's 4.08.
With the addition of Russ Springer and the ineffectiveness of Jeff Bennett is Cormier's old role, there is a chance that Cormier could return to his low-level throne. Nonetheless, given the recent success he's had in mid-high leverage situations that might not happen. Cormier is arbitration eligible after the season and should see a nice raise of a little over a million dollars, but given the fact the he is about to put up back to back above average seasons he will once again be a bullpen bargain for the Rays.
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My brother and I wondering if Cormier in tighter situations was a new found trend.
Good for Corms. He deserves it.
Less strikeouts so it must be Hickey's fault
www.draysbay.com
by Tommy Rancel on Aug 10, 2009 1:30 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Yeah his whiff rate is down a touch.
I need to dig into his pitchfx bag and see if there’s anything that stands out.
Love the groundball rate though.
by R.J. Anderson on Aug 10, 2009 1:34 PM EDT up reply actions
you know damn well
He only gets blamed for the negatives.
by RivalsTees on Aug 10, 2009 1:31 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Yeah no one mentions how we've ran out a total of 6 guys to start a game this year.
The White Sox are the only other team I have to start that few, but my shizzle needs to be updated.
I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.
by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 10, 2009 1:37 PM EDT up reply actions
Kind of amazing, considering other than Kazmir, our staff has managed to stay healthy for the last two years.
How many did we have last year
Price, Talbot, and Niemann for a spot start.
Hammel early on.
Main 5.
So ~15 starters in 2 years? That’s hard to beat.
by R.J. Anderson on Aug 10, 2009 1:41 PM EDT up reply actions
Don't forget that Edwin Jackson was such a fantastic innings eater
I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.
by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 10, 2009 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions
I think calling Jackson an innings eater is a bit harsh.
Livan Hernandez and pitchers who focus on quantity of innings rather than quality are inning eaters.
by R.J. Anderson on Aug 10, 2009 1:47 PM EDT up reply actions
It was bait
Last year that’s basically what he was, though.
I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.
by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 10, 2009 1:49 PM EDT up reply actions
For a fifth starter? He was fine.
The problem was always
A) Public perception != reality
B) He was getting expensive soon
C) We had equal and/or better talent lying a level away.
by R.J. Anderson on Aug 10, 2009 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions
So, now that we've jinxed this, I completely expect Shields to blow his elbow out, Garza to tear his acl and Kazmir to spontaneously combust on the mound.
Yeah, except the press conference afterward will be even more fun.
“I’ve got a little mechanical tweaking to do, mostly re-connecting my lower half to my torso and finding a way to replace my major organs.”
"You know, the crowd just wasn't here tonight,
And I’m fine with that. Can you imagine how many of those little bastards would’ve sold my parts on eBay?"
by R.J. Anderson on Aug 10, 2009 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions
"Jim [Hickey] thought I should start from the third base side of the rubber today.
It was surprising to find Steve Phillips had buried a mine there, however."
Kazmir is so torn to pieces (get it?) that he can't even remember who dealt him.
by R.J. Anderson on Aug 10, 2009 2:01 PM EDT up reply actions
It's almost like I did that for effect.
by R.J. Anderson on Aug 10, 2009 2:10 PM EDT up reply actions
Hey poopmouth
I don’t know who you are. I don’t know what you want. If you are looking for ransom, I can tell you I don’t have money. But what I do have are a very particular set of skills; skills I have acquired over a very long career. Skills that make me a nightmare for people like you. If you take this back right now, that’ll be the end of it. I will not look for you, I will not pursue you. But if you don’t, I will look for you, I will find you, and I will kill you.
I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.
by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 10, 2009 1:49 PM EDT up reply actions
Good luck
I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.
by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 10, 2009 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm glad you gave a reasoned explanation of why you feel that way
I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.
by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 10, 2009 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions
My order of people who get credit for healthy starters
1. LUCK — obvious
2. Friedman — dictates pace of development and innings thrown through out minors
3. Trainers — actually deas with injuries
4. Maddon — has direct control over # of pitches thrown and usage
5. Hickey — may have something to do with teaching sound mechanics, although I imagine most of this goes on in the minors.
He's in there ear everyday
He’s the first to know if anything is up.
I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.
by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 10, 2009 2:53 PM EDT up reply actions
Why not protest Tommy's current FrontPage piece on Cormier?
He argues a Cormier usage trend with a ton less evidence than matt presented about hickey. Almost all of the pieces on this site are about finding trends. matt did the same thing and actually applied some statistical analysis to it, but you disregard it while accepting other trends, for reasons I still don’t understand.
Many folks have their preconceived notions and won't stray from it
I am certainly guilty of that sometimes. Also some folks take the word of some posters like it is absolute gospel. Take this article. Tommy mentioned (further down) that the basic gist was that Cormier is pitching well and can be now counted on virtually whenever. I agree with this. However I can easily see how some people can interpret the article as Cormier is now pitching in higher leverage. That is just false. Tommy did about 0 statistical work on that fact. Posting month to month changes, without doing any statistical work on it, and with the last month as the “high leverage” spot with just 3 games is utterly worthless in proving that point. He didn’t post any p-values or anything remotely close to that sort. Of course as he said in a comment his main point was just that Cormier is pitching well and can be counted on. However I can see how many posters have, and will, think that Cormier is now pitching in high leverage situations because well…they thought that is what Tommy Rancel said. If Jon Brett made a post using solid statistical evidence showing that Cormier has had no significant chance in his leverage using real statistical evidence then the bulk of this board would laugh it off. Thats the main problem with this board. While it is nice to see people using good baseball statistical metrics we still have a very long ways to go in terms of using good statistics.
This of course isn’t Tommys fault. I’d just like to see the board begin to trust the statistical analysis more than the person posting the article. If this blog is ever going to truly live up to its mission statement then we have to begin to do that.
Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks
However I can see how many posters have, and will, think that Cormier is now pitching in high leverage situations because well…they thought that is what Tommy Rancel said.
That is quite a sweeping and unfounded generalization.
Your source for replacement level commentary
Matt's piece is about pitchers using more curveballs over changeups with Hickey.
What does that tell you. I have softened on my stance on Hickey, but it would be nice if he did get credit when things were going fine.
I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.
by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 10, 2009 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions
I know, I know
Just miss the guy, and the statement is true, I used the word since, not because
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
Maybe this is why Zo has slowed down
you’re affections have been directed at Michel and Dillon lately.
Get back on the Zo Wagon!
www.bucem.com - SBNation's source for all things Buccaneer
Zo led the team in OPS in July
Are you implying that 10 days in August is a statistically proven trend?
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
ABSOLUTELY
not. More pointing out your waning affections and wandering eyes. I dont need statistical analysis to show ZO has received less love in the last 2 months from you.
www.bucem.com - SBNation's source for all things Buccaneer
As a footnote
Zo doesn’t like to be forsaken as such. The articles, the twitter feed are rife with references to JP, Michel and JD, but nary a mention of Zorilla. Unacceptable.
www.bucem.com - SBNation's source for all things Buccaneer
In truth, he has become too mainstream
Need new projects to nurture
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
This post is sponsored by a p-value of .99
www.bucem.com - SBNation's source for all things Buccaneer
Well it was more than just that
But here is the point I think RaysTheRoof is making.
I showed at a significant level that a pitcher throws more curveballs the following year than the year before and less changeups the following year than the year before. When was the last time someone else posted the significance of something? That is a highly critical component that is left out of 95% of the analysis on this board.
If I just used “trends” the way it is used in nearly every article then I’d have posted that pitchers see their FIPs rise every single year with Hickey. There was a definite trend there. The difference was noticeable. But it wasn’t highly significant so I didn’t post it. However considering the standard that is used in most articles I could have easily passed it off as fact…
Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks
It's left out of 95% of the analysis on this board because
A) People like Tom Tango and MGL have already discovered and proven its significance.
B) Most of the audience doesn’t care or wouldn’t understand anyways.
by R.J. Anderson on Aug 10, 2009 3:13 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah read my mind
It’s pretty rare to see something done from scratch here, a lot of it is just digging, compiling and presenting. A lot of it is cutting edge stuff like UZR, Pitch F/x, Hit F/x that will probably fall by the wayside for better models in the future, but everyone uses them now for lack of a better option. I do think Pitch F/x will be more of a gradual evolution, but UZR certainly has it’s critics.
I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.
by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 10, 2009 3:18 PM EDT up reply actions
I have no reason to create something new and if that makes me bad then so be it.
by R.J. Anderson on Aug 10, 2009 3:22 PM EDT up reply actions
For the quantity that gets put out using established statistics
there isn’t much reason to
I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.
by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 10, 2009 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions
Nobody is asking anyone to create new statitics
The statistics we have now are plenty good enough. Just practice good statistics.
Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks
I have no problem with people posting opinions, trends, etc
As long as it isn’t posted as fact. I don’t expect people to be phD statisticians. I just don’t like when something is pretty like it is strong evidence when it is in fact not (or perhaps it is, but no work has been done showing so).
Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks
I type like crap during the day
presented not pretty
Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks
I get what you're saying regardless of your mastery of the language
Perhaps I’m guilty of that at times, but it’s been 3 years, 2 months and 15 days since I graduated college and work in a field that doesn’t require anything beyond rudimentary analysis. Perhaps you would like to help out when I’m guilty of this charge.
I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.
by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 10, 2009 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions
OH LOOK AT ME I'M SANDY KAZMIR I WENT TO COLLEGE
Get off your high horse… and give me a five minutes alone with it.
by Suttree on Aug 10, 2009 3:28 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
I almost spit sunflower seeds all over the screen
well done sir
I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.
by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 10, 2009 3:29 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm guilty of it all the time
Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks
I agree with B, but i disagree about A
A lot of work has been done, but not on the specific things these articles are about. I don’t question the work those people have done, because nearly all of it is grounded in strong statistics. However Tango hasn’t done work on say, whether Cormier is pitching higher leverage now. Or whether Longoria is truly slumping or if he is truly playing better. This isn’t the matter of testing whether FIP is strong. We know it is. This is more about questioning how some people apply it.
Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks
Oh, I thought Tango would go site to site pointing stuff out.
by R.J. Anderson on Aug 10, 2009 3:22 PM EDT up reply actions
Tango doesn't have to go site to site making sure people apply his metrics properly
Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks
Tango has never had an issue with how I use his metrics.
by R.J. Anderson on Aug 10, 2009 3:37 PM EDT up reply actions
I honestly don't think you are understanding
It isn’t about the metrics. In this case it doesn’t matter if you use batting average or wOBA. I’m talking about how people use them. When someone says “So and so has a OPS of this and now an OPS of this” and leaves it at that. Perhaps adds maybe the size of the sample. That is most certainly not enough information to draw good conclusions from. That happens all the time here. It is nice information, but more information would allow for better conclusions.
Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks
Honestly you practice good statistics all the tme
Out of anyone here you preach sample size more than anything. Things like that is what I’m asking more of.
Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks
Okay, that's a lot more fair than "Include the p-values" or "run year-to-year regressions on metric X"
by R.J. Anderson on Aug 10, 2009 3:45 PM EDT up reply actions
I mean, I'm willing to try and add more 'backbone' so to speak
But at some point it’s a bit unreasonable to run things that seem like common sense. See: David Price’s ball rates/walk rates.
by R.J. Anderson on Aug 10, 2009 3:46 PM EDT up reply actions
For sure
Then it goes down to essentially putting a disclaimer into it. Of course it is hard for the author to do, but I just get the sense that people truly believe things when it isn’t exactly rock solid.
Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks
Fair enough
I fully understand that every piece is different. In a game recap I definitely do not expect someone to go in depth to that level. So saying that a certain player is now playing much better based upon a certain metrics is more acceptable in that format. However if someone is doing a piece on that specific player then I’d expect the statistics would go a bit deeper.
Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks
I think most people realize the inherent small size of say month to month data
Comparing Longo’s OPS in June to May is going to come with certain caveats, but if you stay away from it period then it makes for a pretty boring site.
I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.
by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 10, 2009 3:59 PM EDT up reply actions
I might be in the minority, but I don't remember what half of those things are
Some of these metrics are new enough and while I can follow along, the minute we start getting into p-values and other stuff (not that it isn’t providing foundation) it inundates the reader with finding stastical analysis ON statistiacl analysis.
Doesnt mean anyone should ignore good processes (not using SSS for example), but some of it seems understood or implied. Perhaps Im wrong
www.bucem.com - SBNation's source for all things Buccaneer
Right.
Which was sort of my point about people not caring/understanding.
by R.J. Anderson on Aug 10, 2009 3:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Well he has to do those with what he's trying to do; he's literally making up statistical measurements. The P values are to show that they can be relied on.
I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.
Right
when you are trying to create a new measure or deviate from a standard measure, you have to show the statistical significance. I agree 100%
But on somewhat more traditional or advanced metrics that are established, it becomes a game of diminishing returns.
www.bucem.com - SBNation's source for all things Buccaneer
I'm not asking people to prove that FIP is actually significant
I know it is strong. That isn’t the debate here.
Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks
I'm not arguing for you or against you
I’m pointing out the disconnect. I’m not arguing that there shouldnt be a strong statistical foudnation, but if you (or anyone) starts prefacing every post with huge disclaimers on stats that most of us have long forgotten, it’s tough to read. Which doesnt make the article or point any less valid.
And again, as I said above, if you are trying to create a metric, then yea, you have to show the significance. And kudos to you for going that step. I surely couldnt.
www.bucem.com - SBNation's source for all things Buccaneer
I'm an inventor
But really people should always be showing the significance of what they are saying.
And there is nothing wrong with making things up. Tango had to “make things up”
Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks
I'm not implying that you're doing things wrong by making things up, so don't confuse my phrasing with an attack on your methods.
I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.
Fair enough
And I totally agree with some of the things I attempted that if I didn’t show the p-values then it should have been tossed out in a heartbeat. No doubt about that.
I guess I just like to see more of the “backbone” as RJ said. I like the statistics. I’m sure the bulk of the readership here doesn’t care about it so I’m in the minority. So I understand why it doesn’t get posted.
Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks
Anyone who watches the team on a day to day basis, and can read the names on the back of the shirts, can figure out that Cormier isn't suddenly the first guy out of the pen.
And anyone who can read the names on the back of the shirts can apply those skills to this article and realize that Tommy was never casting Cormier as the next BALL FOUR.
So long, Sweet Lime!
I don't really want any attention
I just don’t want people to be misinformed.
Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks
We're all sheep here.
What RJ? You want me to cut myself?
Your source for replacement level commentary
People aren't being misinformed.
Where were you in the regression threads when half the people were freaking clueless?
by R.J. Anderson on Aug 10, 2009 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions
Culling his resources to mold a post capable of finally ridding Jim Hickey's virulence from the pulsing veins of the Rays.
He texted Navi on Friday during the 11th to call 5 straight curves.
HE LOVES CURVES!
So long, Sweet Lime!
Well Hickey does
Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks
Just before JP left the bullpen, he received a text on his cell.
Jay Pee opened it to see his wife, blind-folded and beaten, holding an Excel spreadsheet that read: “IF YOU DON’T THROW 5 CURVES IN A ROW, I WILL KNEE RAPE YOUR WIFE – LOVE, MATTHAN”
That isn't what I meant
I just see no problem with someone pointing out when a post is lacking a strong statistical backing. Obviously some posters understand it and take some of the info at face value. Trend analysis is nice. However just in case someone takes it a bit more serious than what it should be taken then what is the problem with someone pointing out the faults in the statistics? Nobody is perfect.
Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks
Don't put those words in my mouth.
But you do have a holier than thou approach that almost certainly rubs most people the wrong way and that’s hurting your argument more than anything else.
by R.J. Anderson on Aug 10, 2009 3:31 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Well that sucks for them
The numbers are the numbers. If they wish not to increase their knowledge because they don’t like the way I post then so be it. That is their loss.
If what matters is truly ""progressive statistical analysis and reasoned argument." then the name of the poster shouldn’t matter. We should all just imagine tht everyone is anonymous. The quality of the post and the statistics are what should matter.
If someone wants to ignore a 99% significance because I posted it and believe a simple SSS trend because someone else posted it then so be it. That is really their loss. As you said some people just don’t care enough or just simply do not understand it.
Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks
You are making a mountain out of an ant hill.
Yes, SSS on Cormier moving up, but it that Bennett is the new long-man given his usage since joining the team. Isn’t that the whole point of the piece?
by R.J. Anderson on Aug 10, 2009 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions
you do realize I included it was a SSS and I'm assuming if you're reading drb you know how much to read into these things
No where did I say Cormier is the king mr. shutdown closer and that is the gospel. And I hope nobody believes that based on this post.
Also we are here to have discussions and that’s why some posts are left open ended.
www.draysbay.com
by Tommy Rancel on Aug 10, 2009 3:46 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I know you did
I wasn’t attacking you. I just wanted to dig a bit deeper into the leverage issue. It wasn’t an attack on you.
Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks
Y'all bunch of sissies.
This is the internet! You can be irrationally angry over nothing without having to apologize!
Bad job by everybody here.
I am really disappointed in RJ and matthan.
matthan was basically all, “Bitch, your shit weak.”
And RJ was all, “Listen, friend, let’s go out for a Slurpee and talk this through.”
So long, Sweet Lime!
Unless that Slurpee has the giant dose of horse semen I FedEx'd RJ, this is going down as a complete catastrophe.
He sees through our hidden veil, RJ.
He knows our darkest secrets, those we forged in the barn in the wee hours of the night.
This is why Normandin said he's not coming around DRB anymore.
by R.J. Anderson on Aug 10, 2009 4:02 PM EDT up reply actions
Boston fans don't have much a of a place here
I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.
by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 10, 2009 4:02 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm taking you off my Christmas card list
by Marc Normandin on Aug 10, 2009 4:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Good that cross-eyed kid of yours was scaring my guests
I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.
by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 10, 2009 4:10 PM EDT up reply actions
and it's why I keep coming back
/SUTTREE’D
www.bucem.com - SBNation's source for all things Buccaneer
What? Bitch is jealous?
You told me you told him, RJ. You told me he knew to let it go.
YOU LIED TO ME, AND THAT’S WHY I HAVE TO SKULL FUCK A BOSTON TERRIER.
This is why we don't do DRB softball games.
by R.J. Anderson on Aug 10, 2009 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions
That and you can't afford the catering for some of these fools
I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.
by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 10, 2009 4:13 PM EDT up reply actions
I ain't finna name any names, but ...
Your avatar.
by R.J. Anderson on Aug 10, 2009 4:14 PM EDT up reply actions
SRQ:Cake::Mengele:Torture
I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.
by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 10, 2009 4:16 PM EDT up reply actions
Can we please, please, PLEASE have a DRays Bay softball game?
I would be Jeremy Giambi esque in the field.
Matt Stairs is on my team
I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.
by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 10, 2009 4:17 PM EDT up reply actions
Catcher
Where else would the fat kid go
I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.
by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 10, 2009 4:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Then why would we put you at first or third?
by R.J. Anderson on Aug 10, 2009 4:57 PM EDT up reply actions
I can catch I just can't play catcher..
I did play SS in a game once
Swav or Die (>'-')> <('-')> <('-'<)
For the lulz
It's softball brah
I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.
by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 10, 2009 5:05 PM EDT up reply actions
I found your choice to splice in sequences from Hidalgo to be very aggressive
It was like the glue that held the whole thing together.
So long, Sweet Lime!
by PlayOnWords on Aug 10, 2009 4:21 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I don't have that ability, no.
I can only change avatars, sigs, and passwords.
by R.J. Anderson on Aug 10, 2009 4:26 PM EDT up reply actions
Winning has made me soft.
I don’t even flame trolls anymore.
by R.J. Anderson on Aug 10, 2009 3:59 PM EDT up reply actions
hopefully we get the chance to get more data
On cormier in these situations, but the opportunies will continue to go to balfour, wheeler and howell as they should. I would put cormier right behind that group.
www.draysbay.com
by Tommy Rancel on Aug 10, 2009 3:58 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
you aren't even ranting like this in response to someone
I feel that in your little world you have an army of people shouting that Cormier is now Mr. High Leverage and you must prove them wrong so you can save the princess from the evil monster. No one ever said anything to the effect that Cormier is/should be the guy to take over in late-inning situations.
I read this (as I’m assuming it was meant to be read) as a piece regarding his performance from early season sparce outings production with current more traditional set-up man opportunities and production in them. You are/have already taken this way too far…
then tell everyone to stop listening to talk radio
www.draysbay.com
by Tommy Rancel on Aug 10, 2009 3:28 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Talk radio is by far the worst median
Nearly everything mentioned there is downright wrong. I’m not saying things here are wrong, just that sometimes it would be nice to go a bit further. Essentially it is nice to know someone is OPSing a bit higher now. For most people that is more than enough. Personally I like to know whether the difference is significant etc. So when that type of analysis is left out it just makes me more skeptical. It doesn’t mean its wrong though.
Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks
Using 3 games to show that his leverage is increasing?
I think we need to pause here. July had 8 games at very low leverage. Perhaps if we can split up July and see what type of outings he was having near the middle or end of the month. If we can’t do that then there really is no way we can draw any conclusions from this. Remember he pitched in an extra inning game where we used almost all of our pitchers. Everyone will have high leverage because of that.
I want to see Cormier get more important innings, but so far the evidence doesn’t really show that. He has definitely gone away from being purely the “long man”, but as Tommy noted that is probably more of a function of the SPs doing better than a performance based role change.
Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks
Last 30 days. Cormiers role hasn't changed....
Name pLI
J.P. Howell 2.24
Joe Nelson 1.53
Dan Wheeler 1.4
Chad Bradford 1.14
Randy Choate 1.13
Grant Balfour 1.1
Brian Shouse 0.72
Lance Cormier 0.61
Jeff Bennett 0.25
Dale Thayer 0.03
Russ Springer 0
The August numbers are inflated due pitching in two extra inning games out of the 3 he has pitched in August.
Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks
? JP is our closer
Cormier is just a basic 6th/7th inning reliever
Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks
You should have added "get it?"
Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks
I think the Joe Nelson hatred could be stifled by him
NOT HAVING THE SECOND HIGHEST pLI OVER THAT SPAN
I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.
by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 10, 2009 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions
That could possibly have something to do with SSS also and the game where he created the insane high leverage situation against the fish
By walking the bases loaded
Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks
I never meant that he was the new Iceman, but
He’s not just a Jeff Bennett mop up man. He can’t control the situations he’s coming into, but he’s performed well all season.
www.draysbay.com
by Tommy Rancel on Aug 10, 2009 2:14 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I agree that he has done very well
I just don’t see any evidence that his role has really changed other than pitching less innings per outing (which is just due to improvement in the SP).
Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks
There is no trend
Unless we plan on going 11+ innings a couple times a week….
Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks
You read the articles don't you.
www.draysbay.com
by Tommy Rancel on Aug 10, 2009 2:22 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I think we all read the artcile
I just don’t see the utility of trying to predict trends based on 3 innings pitched.
Cormier has been a good signing.
yeah, I agree
he’s been a solid pitcher. I’m not sold on his use actually changing though. Think Tommy needs a larger sample size to convince most of this.
Good work as usual
i was thinking the same. This whole article was based off 3 innings, which in any circumstance is too small a sample
Yeah the 3 games with 2 of them being extra inning games where we emptied our bullpen
Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks
Yes, the whole article is based off three innings
And not the fact that Lance Cormier went from a dude we signed to compete for a job into an above average relief pitcher regardless of role.
www.draysbay.com
by Tommy Rancel on Aug 10, 2009 2:20 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Obviously I'm focusing on the leverage portion, which I disagree with. But I do agree with you 100% that he has been a very strong and valuable pitcher for us this year
He still has relatively the same role as before. It is just far more secure at this point.
Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks
There really isn't room for Cormier at the top of the leverage chain anyway
With Howell, Wheeler and Balfour available they will get the call most of the time. However, if Cormier is called on in a big spot, I have full confidence he will come through. Of course now he won’t since we jinxed it, but overall you get the point. With the ever changing bullpen, his role may increase next year.
www.draysbay.com
by Tommy Rancel on Aug 10, 2009 2:25 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
No offense intended
I agree with the general idea that Cormier was a good signing and has pitched very well. Nice find by you and the Rays FO.
I just don’t agree his use has substantially changed since the beginning of the season.
None taken, I'm not like R.J.
The idea I was going for was basically Cormier has changed from a guy who should be used to clean up the mess or eat innings into a guy that can really be counted on and valuable to the pen in multiple situations.
www.draysbay.com
by Tommy Rancel on Aug 10, 2009 2:30 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
do we even know how many appearances it takes to stabalize leverage?
I’m not a fan of leverage/leverage bases stats in the first place, so analysis like this doesn’t really appeal to me, but my (admittedly weak) understanding was that this is still relatively new (even within the world of “advanced” metrics). Would you analyze 5 innings over 4 appearances for any of the other metrics like tRA or FIP for a pitcher? Given the way our bullpen gets managed (generally progressively, but not as progressively as some people on here think, mind you) I’m not putting any stock into it, and despite the good amount of work for a relatively quick piece (and I mean no disrespect to Tommy by this) can we really take any of this as meaning anything.
The frequency of use is more important to me than the leverage of the situations if we are somehow trying to imply that Maddon trusts Cormier more now.
Lance Cormier has been effective
He may lack the flash that other relievers have, but he gets the job done more often than not. Consistency is the most important thing.
I would say being good is more important than being consistent.
Then again, only the poor players are inconsistent.
by R.J. Anderson on Aug 10, 2009 1:55 PM EDT up reply actions
Is Carlos Silva still alive?
I would lump him in there if so
I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.
by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 10, 2009 2:12 PM EDT up reply actions
he has been a good pitcher, not a great pitcher
never had the best stuff but found ways to win plenty of games
This was some sort of cutting edge controversial piece
I could see this on Colbert: Nailed Him
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
My thoughts as well.
Didn’t even look at the comments on it until now because it’s Cormier, what could people really be saying.
Indeed. It's turned into a bitch about our bad pitching thread.
I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.
Meanwhile Navarro piece goes untouched :(
by R.J. Anderson on Aug 10, 2009 3:47 PM EDT up reply actions
WHO CARES ABOUT THAT FAT FUCK NOW THAT WERE ALL ZAUNBIES
I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.
Damnit, can't strike through in header
Meanwhile Navarro Freeman piece goes untouched :(
www.bucem.com - SBNation's source for all things Buccaneer
I read the Freeman piece and actually had a question that I forgot to post.
It was about the annual salary of his contract. If I remember it I’ll post it.
by R.J. Anderson on Aug 10, 2009 3:51 PM EDT up reply actions
TOMMMY RANCEL IS A FRAUD
HE DIDN’T EVEN USE A P VALUE. NAILED HIM.
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
I knew him to be a fraud the second he started quantifying values of hate to explain how bad Jeff Niemann really is.
I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.
At this very moment, matthan decides to start
RaysInlet.com, a warehouse of “Advanced statistical analysis and nose-thumbing at Jim Hickey”.
So long, Sweet Lime!
Advanced statistical analysis of advanced statistical analysis
www.bucem.com - SBNation's source for all things Buccaneer
I'd rather have someone bludgeon the crap out of us with over our head statistics then someone who refuses to acknowledge them.
I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.
BALFOUR WALKS PEOPLE THEREFORE EVAN SHOULD HIT MORE HOMERS
I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.
I'm not sure if this thread and specifically the sub-threads are
discrimanating against retards or a retard convention.
YOU GOT A PROBLEM WITH RETARDS?
I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.
by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 10, 2009 7:25 PM EDT up reply actions
What's a v-card? Is that like herpes?
I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.
by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 10, 2009 7:44 PM EDT up reply actions

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