Jason Bartlett's Trade Value
by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 11, 2009 3:23 PM EDT
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PrintSince we were discussing this earlier I thought I would put some work in on this. There is a messy, quick example within the Bartlett Declining Defense thread. The first step is seeing how much value Bartlett carries beyond his contract. Because Bartlett is an arb-eligible player for 2 more seasons he will be guaranteed to be paid less than the value he is capable of contributing. Luckily, BTB developed a great Trade Value Calculator. That link will take you through the whole article that I will be applying to Bartlett. SO CHECK IT OUT. On with the pretty pictures:
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Basically, if Jason Bartlett can be a 3.05 player over his last 2 years of arbitration he will be worth an extra $11,000,000 to the organization that obtains him. This is due to out-playing his relatively paltry contract and the $2.5M that his type-B status should be worth in a draft pick.
OK, so now we know that Bartlett is worth $11M to some interested organization. "So what?", he says. Well the next step is to see what that $11M is worth at the prospect level. Luckily Victor Wang gave us a good idea HERE. I will reproduce here to make it a little easier to see:
Top 10 hitting prospects $36.5M Top 11-25 hitters $25.1 Top 26-50 hitters $23.4 Top 51-75 hitters $14.2 Top 76-100 hitters $12.5 Top 10 pitching prospects $15.2 Top 11-25 pitchers $15.9 Top 26-50 pitchers $15.9 Top 51-75 pitchers $12.1 Top 76-100 pitchers $9.8 Grade B pitchers (as graded by Sickels) $7.3 Grade B hitters $5.5 Grade C pitchers 22 or younger $2.1 Grade C pitchers 23 or older $1.5 Grade C hitters 22 or younger $0.7 Grade C hitters 23 or older $0.5
So we can pick and choose some different options here. 2 Grade B hitters works out nicely. Feel free to theorize your own possibilities. So now we need to look at some grades to get an idea of who would be a target. It's hard to find non-Sickel's draft grades on an ABC scale (if someone can point me in the right direction it would be much obliged) so I will list Sickel's B & B- hitters by team. Sickels runs a site called Minor League Ball. A search got me to THIS page. All of these are from over the winter and were preliminary at the time. I thought this was good, because if we trade Barty in the offseason there will be a similar list and this gives us an idea of how some of these guys have panned out. I would have included the positions, but I didn't think to do it until I was half way through and this is already taking up too much of my time. Here's the list:
Some of these names may be familiar to you and a lot probably won't. Most of these guys won't ever even be average Major Leaguers, but the point is to find comparable value and then work from there. This is what I've got for now, but we should revisit it sometime in the offseason and definitely when next years prospect list comes out.
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Wonderful work.
Nice presentation, too. You get an A+!
Hope you don’t get molested by your step father when you get home.
Thanks buddy
I worked really hard on this, I think I’m gonna put it on your mom’s fridge when I get done excavating that Large Hardon Collapser she calls a vag tonight.
I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.
by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 11, 2009 3:47 PM EDT up reply actions
Hadron as well, but one look at that seahag and your hardon would collapse too
I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.
by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 11, 2009 4:02 PM EDT up reply actions
I remember when everyone was like,
“omfg we’re going to get sucked into a black hole, you satanic bastards! Don’t do it!!!”
Well they haven't fired it up to full speed yet have they?
I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.
by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 11, 2009 5:01 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm killing you first once we're in the black hole
I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.
by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 11, 2009 5:04 PM EDT up reply actions
BTW 1 Evan Longoria is worth 4 top 10 hitting prospects
I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.
I know this is last years list
And of course this isn’t a real life thing, but imagine getting Michel Tayor AND Dominic Brown types for a MVB.
www.draysbay.com
by Tommy Rancel on Aug 11, 2009 4:05 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
Why wait?
Let’s trade Longoria now. Can his value be much higher?
And next season, how about Price?
I’, sure there is some 18 yo HS phenom out there who can win games in the ALE
Bryce Harper, Strasburg, Both Zimmerman's, and JD Martin for Longo
I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.
by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 11, 2009 4:11 PM EDT up reply actions
By the way I know Jordan had TJS
We’re playing for 2018 babyyyy
I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.
by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 11, 2009 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions
I just ran it actually, if you consider him Type A, will make 10M before escalators, and peg him at 4.5 WAR next year
You are looking at a surplus of $15.7M. Not a ton of difference from Barty since you are getting 2 years at arb value with JB and only the 1 season out of Craw. Refer to the chart and see what you can get out of that
I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.
by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 11, 2009 4:23 PM EDT up reply actions
Trading away Bartlett and Crawford and whoever else
is making a very big assumption that none of you can say w/o reservation. That is players like Brignac, Joyce and Jennings will be AS productive in their roles. This is what i seriously doubt
It would be nice to sign the guys we drafted
I’m for trading Bartlett and Pena, let’s be clear about that. My hope is that we can get Craw on a 3/40 type deal with the hometown discount.
I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.
by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 11, 2009 4:36 PM EDT up reply actions
13.33 per seems like a nice hometown discount.
In another thread, pretty much everyone agreed he’d bring in 15-18 per year in FA.
I agree
I have assumed his floor is 15, but like I said my hope is to get him to a deal like this, while clearing payroll via Kaz or Pena. Bartlett is a great sell-high opportunity, I would jump all over that.
I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.
by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 11, 2009 4:48 PM EDT up reply actions
Not trading away Bartlett and Crawford and whoever else
is making a very big assumption that none of you can say w/o reservation. That is that fans like Raymondo, suttrree, and freezorilla will foot the bill to play these players.
OLNEY: Rays to take Upton offers?
ESPN The Magazine’s Buster Olney notes in a post today that talent evaluators have told him they’re convinced the Rays will take trade offers on B.J. Upton this winter.
Yesterday, we noted that Upton remains unhappy with Joe Maddon’s decision to drop him down in the Rays’ batting order, the St. Petersburg Tribune reported yesterday.
Once the leadoff hitter, Upton was dropped to seventh last week and now is ninth.
“It’s almost like a kick in the face,” Upton said.
Buster Olney’s Take – Upton’s actions forcing the issue
“Upton is incredibly talented and has the talent to be a Gold Glove center fielder, but he has regressed offensively, and the fact that he griped about his place in the lineup when he’s been batting under .250 the whole year doesn’t speak well of his personal accountability.”
"I want to live in a world where a solo homerun in the 2nd inning counts as much as a solo homerun in the 8th."
We should take offers for everyone who isn't Shields/Longoria.
But Olney doesn’t understand why.
Also: St. Petersburg Tribune? Nice.
by R.J. Anderson on Aug 11, 2009 4:42 PM EDT up reply actions
Nice to see another hack taking a quote out of context
Olney is the king of throwing shit at a wall to see what sticks, sweeping the piles under the rug while bragging about his conquests.
I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.
by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 11, 2009 4:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Chris Mortenson of MLB
"I want to live in a world where a solo homerun in the 2nd inning counts as much as a solo homerun in the 8th."
10:15 Umm I'm reporting that player x is going to y team
10:30 That report from earlier was in error. Actually, player z is going to team a
10:45 Sorry about that folks actually player x is going to team a
11:00 GD this Twitter bullshit cocksucker, oh I’m on well all I’ve got for you is that player z just bought team y
11:30 ::Gun in Mouth:: YOU PEOPLE DON’T UNDERSTAND THE PRESSURE I’M UNDER, THERE ARE 400 OTHER HACKS AS BAD AS ME OUT THERE MAKING SHIT UP TOO, WHAT IF THEY’RE RIGHT FIRST, EVERYTHING WAS SO MUCH EASIER BEFORE THE INTERNET AND PEOPLE COULD CALL ME ON MY BULLSH…
12:00 ::Chris Berman walks by carrying a 6 foot sub for himself:: Hey Mort looks like you had a little accident eh there buddy?
I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.
by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 11, 2009 5:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Lol Upton's actions forcing the issue
Also the M’s listened to offers about Felix, sure the answer was no, but its a GM’s job to listen.
www.draysbay.com
by Tommy Rancel on Aug 11, 2009 5:00 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Upton is having a miserable year
If he repeats it in ‘10, we’ll be looking for a CFer
You want this, don't you?
The hate is swelling in you now. Take your Banhammer. Use it. Raymondo is unarmed. Strike him down with it. Give in to your anger. With each passing moment you make yourself more his servant.
Swav or Die (>'-')> <('-')> <('-'<)
For the lulz
In three years we'll be able to conclude
whether ’09 was a fluke or the norm
So far what we hoped for has happened but once
Many calculators died to bring us this information.
So long, Sweet Lime!
by PlayOnWords on Aug 11, 2009 5:22 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
R.J. says that the chances of playoffs are 725 to 1. Actually R.J, has been known to make mistakes... from time to time... Oh dear...
Swav or Die (>'-')> <('-')> <('-'<)
For the lulz
by SRQman on Aug 11, 2009 5:23 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I'm speaking of his offense
and i nor most baseball fans don’t understand what +15 runs means
I guess our debate is '08
after what we’ve viewed this year, we’d gift wrap ’08 stats for the next 10
Our debate is you have double standards.
For Bartlett, you hate on us for saying he’s not this good. For B.J., he HAS to be this bad in your eyes despite the past saying otherwise.
by R.J. Anderson on Aug 11, 2009 5:26 PM EDT up reply actions
WHY DO YOU CARE.
Is he paying for server costs or some shit? Have you never used the internet before meeting Raymondo?
So long, Sweet Lime!
Great quote from Raymondo
Ready are you? What know you of ready? For eight hundred years have Raymondo has watched baseball. My own counsel will I keep on who is to be good and bad. A Pitcher must have the deepest commitment, the most serious drinking of Natty Light. This one a long time have I watched. All his life has he looked away… to the stats, to the sabermetrics. Never his mind on wins, losses and saves. Hmm? What he was doing. Hmph. FIP. Heh. tra. Heh. A Closer craves not these things. You are reckless.
Swav or Die (>'-')> <('-')> <('-'<)
For the lulz
by SRQman on Aug 11, 2009 5:29 PM EDT up reply actions 5 recs
Maybe i'm imagining all this
but i feel this blog has it’s favorite players, and fund some stats to defend thir play when challenged
Upton, Sonnanstine, Gross for a few examples
That may be true.
The point, though, is we use the same stats for everyone. We don’t change the measure to fit the argument.
Our favorites are our favorites because we know they're better than most fans do.
by R.J. Anderson on Aug 11, 2009 5:33 PM EDT up reply actions
See i don't want to be lumped into 'most fans'
i don’t read the newspaper or listen much to talk sjows, cause i feel i’m way above them, but i also can call it like it is
Barty is having a great OFFENSIVE year—done deal
Upton had two great offensive years
Done deal.
www.draysbay.com
by Tommy Rancel on Aug 11, 2009 6:41 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
No
08 was not a great offensive year. it was slightly above average
glassman, i like stats myself, and i'm totally blown away with
RJ and his insight into the game, but being honest woth so many stats he has at his finger tips, he can always find one, which when standing alone can defend his position
I've said Upton's terrible right now.
I was clearly wrong when I said he’s back in June. I don’t know what’s going on but I’m more frustrated with his expanding of the zone than anyone else is.
by R.J. Anderson on Aug 11, 2009 5:35 PM EDT up reply actions
You are imagining things.
Stop accusing me of being biased when it comes to numbers.
I have favorite players. I’m a fan. I own a Upton jersey and not a Longoria one, that doesn’t mean I’d rather trade Longoria. It also doesn’t mean I think Upton is > Longoria.
Of course, Upton has the same WAR as our “team MVP” last year and he gets treated like absolute horseshit by the media. So yes, I’m a bit defensive because of it.
by R.J. Anderson on Aug 11, 2009 5:31 PM EDT up reply actions
You're missing the point R.J.
you are too old to be wearing jerseys
"I want to live in a world where a solo homerun in the 2nd inning counts as much as a solo homerun in the 8th."
Now that is a valid point
as Rome once said noone over 12 yo should wear a player’s jersey
Agreed
"I want to live in a world where a solo homerun in the 2nd inning counts as much as a solo homerun in the 8th."
Why do you let the media influence your opinion of Upton?
Why does it make you defensive if the media treats Upton poorly?
I used to be a big Upton fan. He’s lost me this year. And it has NOTHING to do with the media.
His performance currently sucks. He is near worthless with the bat right now. Will he ever recover? Who knows. Probably, I suppose, but I can’t see it happening anytime soon. And his attitude has deteriorated as well. Forget the “kick in the face” quote. He’s quite obviously not smart and often says things that are not smart. Big deal. But when you watch him on TV, during the games, it doesn’t look like he cares anymore. Not like he did during the playoff run last year or the playoffs themselves. And there was a shot during the 9th inning last night that captured the essence of BJ Upton circa right now. Rays are down 1, trying to tie the game, and there’s BJ, sitting on the bench, staring away from home plate, arms crossed, with a look on his face that struck me as somewhere between boredom and disdain.
by Not Whole View Gang survivor on Aug 11, 2009 7:40 PM EDT up reply actions
B.J. Upton doesn't care.
But he was a 5 win player with a torn labrum last year.
Okay, right.
by R.J. Anderson on Aug 11, 2009 7:50 PM EDT up reply actions
because its going to make us less likely to sign him if he doesnt want to play here
I wouldn’t if I were in his situation.
The issue at hand.
You will never agree to a definition of success or failure. You let the terms be as ambiguous as your arguments. then you have no accountability. No wonder you find a soul brother in Buster Olney.
tru dat
"I want to live in a world where a solo homerun in the 2nd inning counts as much as a solo homerun in the 8th."
The only way i trade Jason Bartlett is if
Matt Joyce has a twin brother playong baseball somewhere
Very good article and great research
I just think the application of it really differs across teams. Teams with less financial constraints with more “win now” attitudes are going to drive the present value of talent up. Teams such as the Rays and the A’s have to follow guidelines like this. However not when trading players. When we trade players the real market value is going to be far higher. When we acquire players the real market value is going to be higher than this list. This could perhaps be a reason why we fail to acquire big names. We know their worth to a team like ourselves. A bigger market team doesn’t operate by the same parameters.
Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks
Also I'd prefer to have a better defense
Defense is cheaper to find. We can get close to the same 2009 Bartlett production by finding a better defensive player that hits less. That player will be far far far less expensive.
Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks
ahem Briggy cough
I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.
by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 11, 2009 9:07 PM EDT up reply actions
Does this basically mean...
That with the excess value he is expected to generate (if we keep him) we can buy two B Hitters? Or put another way, if we trade him, said team can take his value and pay two B Hitters?
Or am I missing the boat?
Read Wang's research
Basically, the average B hitter prospect will contribute 5.5 million dollars of value. This includes the busts and the superstars alike so it does take into account risk/reward. Victor is an incredibly smart guy and he can say it much better than I. It also takes into account the fact that a hitter is more likely to be worth something someday as evidenced by the higher dollar signs on a batter per pitcher basis.
I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.
by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 11, 2009 9:09 PM EDT up reply actions
One thing I noticed with Sickels is that he rates catchers really high. SS as well. I should have included positions because
as I went through it seemed like catchers were almost 50-50 compared to everyone else.
I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.
by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 11, 2009 9:10 PM EDT up reply actions
Where do you get a guide to all
the stats you use so we can understand better. I want to understand your stories and graphs, but am having some trouble with terminology such as WAR, RAR. I went to fangraphs, I see stats, but where is explanation on how they get these stats and how they measure them. Alot of us love baseball and are used to traditional stats and common sense baseball, but are open to the new math, just need help to find it explained. Thanks
Rays/Lightning/USF Bulls/Steelers
by SportsRoadhouse on Aug 11, 2009 8:51 PM EDT reply actions
There is a stats guide on the left side of the main page.
That is a great start. That and google helps me find the sites that develop/track/use the stats.
Thanks, I'll be looking at this stuff the next few days tryign to grasp it better
Upton looks really bad this year overall to me as a fan watching the game, and your articles make me want to understand how you value him. If it shows value, and it works, then I’m all ears to grasp it. We’re all used to the way it has been, but if math stats actually prove BJ more valuable to the Rays even if he struck out every time up, and they show validity, then I respect it. I think most people are mad at BJ because he APPEARS lazy and lacking hustle. Bartlett APPEARS to hustle all the time, so maybe that is why people don’t gauge these stats properly. Thanks for the information. You all here obviously put alot of effort into this page, and that is appreciated
Rays/Lightning/USF Bulls/Steelers
by SportsRoadhouse on Aug 11, 2009 10:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Thanks for not being afraid to ask
None of this is perfect, but it is much better than the alternative and in the proper context paints a great picture.
I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.
by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 11, 2009 9:11 PM EDT up reply actions
If you have any sites
that detail the terminology, that would be great. I searched google a bit, couldn’t find real good details, but I’ll keep looking. The terminology and how it is defined, are what I’m looking for so I can understand the articles better. Fangraphs had a glossary, but it seemed limited to only a few of the terms. RJ uses the WAR alot, and I have no clue how that is determined. Thanks again
Rays/Lightning/USF Bulls/Steelers
by SportsRoadhouse on Aug 11, 2009 10:07 PM EDT up reply actions
It's in there, you didn't think it was easy did you?
A lot of stuff is actually on wikipedia. You can check out thehardballtimes or statcorner’s glossary is pretty good. If you have any questions, I’d be happy to answer what I can.
I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.
by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 11, 2009 11:55 PM EDT up reply actions
Thanks Sandy,
Starting to agree with some of this new math more and more daily, it just actually makes sense in alot of cases, common sense still alot of the game, but the new math sure does help in making some of these decisions. Starting to grasp it….seen too many things that keep matching up like they should with the math..crazy, never realized it before this year reading all these charts
Rays/Lightning/USF Bulls/Steelers
by SportsRoadhouse on Aug 21, 2009 1:00 AM EDT up reply actions
So judging by the comments this must have been a pretty shitty article.
I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.
I still like the idea of trying to work a deal around Coghlan in Florida
let Zobrist play RF and Coghlan 2B next season with Briggy at SS.
If Hanley didn't show across the board defensive improvements they might even take you up on that
As is he’s a slightly above-average SS that absolutely rakes. He could potentially be the most valuable guy in baseball, leaving cost out.
I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.
by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 11, 2009 9:15 PM EDT up reply actions
aren't they looking to trade him this off-season for the same reasons we are looking to move C.C.
I could be wrong but I thought I heard that. If they trade Hanley, Bartlett would be a decent cheaper option which would allow them to still be able to compete.
Or they could spend the 30M they are handed in Revenue Sharing.
I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.
by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 11, 2009 11:55 PM EDT up reply actions
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