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David Price Forgets To Bring His Slider; Ervin Santana Blanks The Rays.

David Price had a no hitter through four innings. He had used just 47 pitches and was cruising. Unfortunately, basball games aren't four innings long and Price had to pitch in the fifth and sixth innings; that's when things went wrong. Over his final two frames, Price allowed six runs (five earned) on eight hits and used 50 pitches. To his credit he did not walk a batter once again and had four strikeouts. However, Price became all too predictable as the game went on and professional hitters are good at spotting that.

Star-divide

Working with Gregg Zaun for the first time, it looked like the plan was establish the fastball first. 44 of Price's first 47 pitches were some form of a fastball. Brooks Baseball classifies them as four-seamers, but there were definitely some two-seamers in there.

  Horzspeed_php_medium

via brooksbaseball.net



Nonetheless, it worked near pefectly the first time through the order. The only mark on Price's record was a HBP of Maicer Izturis. Unfortunately, Price and Zaun didn't flip the script the second and third time through the order and maintained a steady fastball diet. WIth two on and two out in the fifth, Price threw all fastballs to Reggie Willits despite working the count to two strikes. I was screaming at the TV for a slider; however, it never came. Willits lined a base hit off of another fastball and two runs scored. It was down hill from there

On the night he threw 97 pitches with 88.6% of them being fastballs. I know Price's fastball is good, but not that good especially against one of the better teams in MLB. Price's second best offering, the slider, was only thrown seven times (six really, one was a curve), and he threw only four change ups. Maybe he didn't have the feel for his slider last night, but obviously the heavy fastball diet didn't work after the Angels lineup flipped. This is where a real third offering comes in handy.

The good news is Price once again showed good control throwing nearly 70% of his pitches for strikes. He did not walk a batter for the second straight game and third time in four starts. After his July 4th start, Price has walked just five batters in his last 34 innings(six starts), However, he has given up 42 hits in those 34 innings. He's likely due for a slight BABIP regression since his BABIP for the period is in the mid .300s. I also want to note that Price's K/9 for this stretch has dipped below seven K's per nine.

Offensively, well yea.

The Rays went a combined 3-27 with two walks. The non Gregg Zaun and Evan Longoria players went 0-19. After looking like a shell of his former self for most of the season, Ervin Santana was back at least for last night. By the time the Rays started playing ball last night, they needed to win just to keep pace. After getting to within a 1.5 of the wildcard, the Rays are now 3.5 back. They are now 1-4 on this west coast with one to go. Baseball is funny like that; afterall, it was all good just a week ago.

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Santana strolls to the mound with his 7+ ERA

and mows down the punchless Rays with a CG 3 hitter

Pathetic, disgraceful and embarrasing

What did i miss?

by Raymondo on Aug 12, 2009 7:56 AM EDT reply actions  

Makes sense that you would use ERA

His strand rate was horrible coming into the game and his Babip was above .350. He was due to start pitching to his ability at some point.

I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.

by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 12, 2009 9:22 AM EDT up reply actions  

This is why i can't take much of what i read

on here seriously. There’s always an excuse for everything that happens

A CG 3 H SO wasn’t forthcoming, probably even by his most ardent admirerer

by Raymondo on Aug 12, 2009 9:26 AM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

How exactly do you predict shutouts?

Derek Holland (5.04 ERA) shutout the Angels on Sunday
Carl Pavano (5.09 ERA) threw 7 shutout innings against the Tigers on Saturday

When did a shutout become something that is only done by great pitchers?

by tallyray on Aug 12, 2009 9:31 AM EDT up reply actions  

One through nine, no maybes, no supposes, no fractions.

You can’t throw a curveball, you can’t go out and throw a complete game shutout, you know, without, like, you know, uh, with fractions, okay? What are you going to land on – one-quarter, three-eighths? What are you going to do when you go from here to the plate or something? That’s dialectic sabermetrics.

by Suttree on Aug 12, 2009 9:34 AM EDT up reply actions  

Just a guess, but i'd guess Tom Seaver

will probably have more CG SO’s over the length of his career tan Ervin Santana will

by Raymondo on Aug 12, 2009 9:35 AM EDT up reply actions  

Hey, man, you don't talk to tallyray.

You listen to him. The man’s enlarged my mind. He’s a poet-fan in the classic sense. I mean, sometimes he’ll, uh, well, you’ll say “Hello” to him, right? And he’ll just walk right by you, and he won’t even notice you. And suddenly he’ll grab you, and he’ll throw you in a corner, and he’ll say “Do you know that ‘if’ is the middle word in life? ‘If you can keep your head when all about you are losing theirs and blaming it on you, if you can trust yourself when all men doubt you’…” – I mean, I’m no, I can’t – I’m a little man, I’m a little man, he’s, he’s a great man. I should have been a pair of ragged claws scuttling across floors of silent seas – I mean –…

by Suttree on Aug 12, 2009 9:39 AM EDT up reply actions  

Hopper'd

I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.

by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 12, 2009 9:41 AM EDT up reply actions  

You make it sound like Santana is some scrub

His HR/FB is still a little high at 12.1%. Last year he was a Cy Young candidate and getting 11 ground balls last night was huge. He faced 2 over the minimum and threw 97 pitches on the way to a 2.25 hour CGSO. Our bats looked weak last night, for sure, but give some credit where it’s due, we didn’t get good wood on anything last night.

I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.

by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 12, 2009 9:40 AM EDT up reply actions  

Ok

And the Yankees will have more wins this year than any other team, does that mean they shouldn’t lose a game?

by tallyray on Aug 12, 2009 9:40 AM EDT up reply actions  

and how is that relevant to last night's game?

Jose Jimenez threw a no hitter before. Johan Santana gave up 9 runs in a game this year. You can’t predict the outcome of a baseball game. Should we have won? Sure, but when a guy is on he’s on. You cant predict that. We roughed him up last time, this time he got us.

www.draysbay.com

by Tommy Rancel on Aug 12, 2009 9:41 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

Nothing is relavent to anything

i’m a little slow, but i finally understand how y’all are so upbeat on this team everyday—sabermetrics is the answer

There is always a stata counter stat to support the player, team, result or whatever else is needed to allow you to be happy

While i too appreciate ALL the stats i’ve learned from this site. there is only one that matters —W v L

by Raymondo on Aug 12, 2009 9:46 AM EDT up reply actions  

Don't forget ERA and WHIP

www.bucem.com - SBNation's source for all things Buccaneer

by Buc Wild on Aug 12, 2009 9:48 AM EDT up reply actions  

Well, you see Tommy... at DRays Bay, things get confused out there, power, ideals, the old morality, and practical sabermetric necessity.

Out there with these Heaters it must be a temptation to be god. Because there’s a conflict in every human heart between the rational and the irrational, between good and evil. The good does not always triumph. Sometimes the dark side overcomes what Lincoln called the better angels of our nature. Every man has got a breaking point. You and I have. Raymond has reached his. And very obviously, he has gone insane.

by Suttree on Aug 12, 2009 9:46 AM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah it sucks when talented pitchers that battled injuries early on and missed ST start to get their shit together

I like how you base his season on the 70 innings he threw prior to tonight. I’m sure that’s a big enough sample size.

I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.

by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 12, 2009 9:33 AM EDT up reply actions  

Watching this team on the road is just painful

Run differential suggests '09 > '08. Actual results may vary.

by mrmilergd on Aug 12, 2009 8:01 AM EDT reply actions  

I was awau for Sunday and Monday's games so i couldn't watch

and did the smart thing last night, ny not watching a pitch

Sometimes you just know

by Raymondo on Aug 12, 2009 8:04 AM EDT up reply actions  

getting nervous?

your days may be numbered

580 win pct needed to save your ass

by Raymondo on Aug 12, 2009 9:18 AM EDT up reply actions  

Nope.

Even if I lose and disappear forever, you’ll be like the chick from the Scarlett Letter, marked for rooting against this team.

I sacrifice myself for greater cause.

Also, I think we’re gonna win today.

by Suttree on Aug 12, 2009 9:20 AM EDT up reply actions  

Suttree, why not start a poll

asking bloggers if the Rays will or will not win 90 games?

by Raymondo on Aug 12, 2009 9:41 AM EDT up reply actions  

Why not start a blog asking you to go away?

Sign lady must die.
Nobody Talk to Raymondo - Support the Site-Wide Silent Treatment.

by EminenceFront on Aug 12, 2009 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

er poll*

Sign lady must die.
Nobody Talk to Raymondo - Support the Site-Wide Silent Treatment.

by EminenceFront on Aug 12, 2009 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

I didn't watch the game last night

did Price shake Zaun off alot or were the fastballs all called?

www.bucem.com - SBNation's source for all things Buccaneer

by Buc Wild on Aug 12, 2009 8:38 AM EDT reply actions  

I didn't see much head shaking

Although after all these late games my night vision may be off. Through 4 innings he was dealing. It was the 2nd and 3rd time though the lineup with fastballs that got him.

www.draysbay.com

by Tommy Rancel on Aug 12, 2009 8:53 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

It was disheartening

With the size of the strikezone there is no reason he shouldn’t have been throwing something other than fastballs.

"I want to live in a world where a solo homerun in the 2nd inning counts as much as a solo homerun in the 8th."

by RaysnNoles on Aug 12, 2009 9:11 AM EDT up reply actions  

I know it hasn't come the way we wanted it

but we were 5.5 out with 55 to play. We’re now 3.5 out with 49 left. Barring the results we’ve seen the last 4-5 days, I’m pretty sure we all would’ve taken picking up 2 games in a 6 game stretch.

And before anyone says it, yes, I realize were 1.5 out 2 days ago, but 2 games over 6 games stretches get us in, and that’s with some not so stellar games on our part.

/optimism

www.bucem.com - SBNation's source for all things Buccaneer

by Buc Wild on Aug 12, 2009 9:38 AM EDT reply actions  

You're off to an early start

Coffee in your fruit loops?

I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.

by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 12, 2009 9:42 AM EDT up reply actions  

Cocaine off a Mastry's toilet seat is the only way to cope with last night's loss.

Especially considering I only had like three beers and yet still went home and devoured a fuck load of food. I made bread nachos – that is, I cut up white bread, melted some munster cheese on top and busted out the salsa.

by Suttree on Aug 12, 2009 9:44 AM EDT up reply actions  

OT: Moyer comment
Ultimately, I’m a little disheartened because I know this past winter, when I was negotiating with the Phillies, this was a sore thumb, if you will, about this potentially happening," Moyer said. "You can’t promise anything in this game, but I really felt that Ruben kind of parlayed to me that this type of situation would not happen."

Moyer was told Monday he would be going to the bullpen. The recently signed Martinez, a three-time Cy Young winner, will start in his place.

Of course Moyer is a 20+ year veteran and has earned his right to speak, but is this all that different from what BJ said?

by tallyray on Aug 12, 2009 9:44 AM EDT reply actions  

Leave Whitey alone

"I want to live in a world where a solo homerun in the 2nd inning counts as much as a solo homerun in the 8th."

by RaysnNoles on Aug 12, 2009 9:57 AM EDT up reply actions  

Verry different.

One: he’s earned it.
Two: he didn’t use “kick to the head.”
Three: he didn’t own up to his performance.
Four: he had apparently discussed it with the FO.
Five: he’s white.

by rglass44 on Aug 12, 2009 10:28 AM EDT up reply actions  

LOOK AT ME!!!!!!!!!

WE SUCK! I HATE THIS TEAM! I HATE STATS! I HATE ALL OF YOU!!!!!!!!!

PAY ATTENTION TO ME!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

by lamondo on Aug 12, 2009 11:19 AM EDT reply actions  

Dude at Rays Index told me to post my rants here, will do.

Since this post is David Price specific, I’ll focus on him. I see that David brought out the knuckle curve once eh? He did the same thing in the minors when he lost his slider, he never did say that he found it down there. David’s fine physically and mechanically so I’ll just focus on the mental aspect which I focus on. David’s last few press conference all sounded the same, “I threw pitches and they hit them, I let myself and the team down, I’ll pitch better next game.” You can’t go into the game with the mind set that you have to pitch well. You’ll start to think certain strikes you usually throw will be balls when actually they’ll paint the corner, so you go for the sure strikes that’ll lead to base hits. You saw that a lot when Gregg Zaun asked for the fastball inside while David threw it outside instead. I suggested this at Rays Index, and I dunno if anyone has any contacts in the Rays staff, but this should be fowarded. David’s pitching for a paycheck and his job out there, and not for fun like he was last season. He says pressure motivates him more than it intimidates him, but that’s not all true either, at least not under the right circumstances. He looked like a Yankee pitcher last year really. Pitch well, do one thing wrong, and you worry about how it’ll be taken by the coaches or the manager since the bullpen overall has been solid and they’d have no problem replacing you to keep the offense in the ball game, so he pressures himself more to pitching to get the ball in play, while forgetting he does have the strike out. He’s an in between pitcher. Trying to get something besides a groundball or a flyball. A pitcher who pitches for contact gets groundballs, while a strikeout pitcher gets fly balls. He’s in between what he can do and what he should do, which is leading to base hits since that’s what’s in between a ground ball and a fly ball. So enough of the mental analysis and to what he should do. Talk to pitchers after everyone of his half innings. Joke around with them. Talk with his coaches. Joke around with them. Get into the groove that this isn’t just a job, but it’s the same sport he played in college. It’s still a sport for fun and not to take like a 9 to 5 job. Maybe get into competitions with other pitchers. Tell Niemann that after what he does out on the mound, he wont be able to out perform his start which would start a domino effect of motivation. Price pitches out there with a feeling of something to compete for and get his mind off of the pennant race and just pitch for the competitivness and the fun of baseball. This wasn’t really a rant, but actually a psychiatric evaluation. If you do have the time, I hope you appreciate the read and give opinions on my evaluation to better help my understanding of a players mind set. Thank you.

by DJS92491 on Aug 12, 2009 11:43 AM EDT reply actions  

How long did this take?

If he would show any confidence in his change it would help him immensely. He had to have felt the slider was garbage yesterday and stayed away from it. On days like that he needs another pitch that he can get strikes and whiffs and more importantly to change speeds.

I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.

by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 12, 2009 11:55 AM EDT up reply actions  

Wow

This should be forwarded to every team. If you simply talk to a pitcher in between inning and joke around with him the pitcher will become more effective.

www.bucem.com - SBNation's source for all things Buccaneer

by Buc Wild on Aug 12, 2009 12:45 PM EDT up reply actions  

My thoughts on B.J. Upton?

He’s young and he needs to take more pitches and when he sees the ball, he should hit the ball. Um, that’s about it. I’m just kidding. This might sound stupid, but the guys should rag on how bad he is in the dugout. Tell him he can’t get on base even after a fourth ball (Doesn’t make sense, but you get the point.) Give B.J. something to compete for. Have Crawford say to Upton that he can’t get on base as much as he can the next few games. Be immature in the dugout so you can leave all immaturity in there. Come out meaning business and wanting to shut up CC in the dugout. Give him something to compete for instead of just grounding out and lolly gagging with your head down back to the dugout. My main analysis for every player is going to be find something else competitive to do with a team mate and just have fun except for Pat Burrell. I don’t know what the fuck is up with him. Nobody should have to say what he has to do, he’s been in Philly with rough crowds his whole career and he hit well. Dude just pisses me off.

by DJS92491 on Aug 12, 2009 11:54 AM EDT reply actions  

Not everything in this game is mental

Having fun does not always equal being good at baseball. BJ can “change his attitude” all he wants (which most people think is the problem, but I highly doubt) but the guy has serious holes in his swing right now. Personally I think he is hurt, but even if he isnt, his approach at the plate is the problem, not his mindset.

by BJ the Bossman on Aug 12, 2009 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions  

No, don't.

Let’s just… let’s just leave this one be.

by Suttree on Aug 12, 2009 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions  

No Deal...

I don’t see how you can separate his approach at the plate and his mental approach to the game? They seem one and the same to me, albiet on different levels. I’m not sure that the Rays aren’t already doing the same things that DJS230293 thinks they should. And I’m not sure that they are indeed the right things to do.

But I can say that last years the team seemed to be having more fun. This year they seem less relaxed. That can’t be good for a ball club. But we don’t yet have a statistic to measure anxiety or fun, so maybe all this talking is moot. Unless we want to resort to utles, which seems silly.

by BigBadBossman on Aug 12, 2009 1:14 PM EDT up reply actions  

Um.

Confidence breeds confidence…

If the clubhouse is tense and he is anxious when going to the plate, I think he has to fix that before he can work on fixing the holes in his swing. If he is physically hurt then he may have a different problem altogether, but don’t discount how a player mentality can affect his performance. They are most definately related.

by BigBadBossman on Aug 12, 2009 1:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

Being happy and in a good mental state does not necessarily affect his swing

If his swing was right and he was in a slump? Yea I could see what youre getting at. But there is a serious problem with how he is approaching his AB’s and it has nothing to do with him being happy or in a good mood or “joking around”. His biggest problems are purely physical right now. And when he (or you, I cant really tell) refer to mindset, youre talking about being in a good mood. The mindset that affects his approach at the plate is how he is mentally preparing to face a pitcher. Like knowing what said pitcher likes to throw, where in the zone that pitcher is going to try to go, and what BJ should be looking for etc…

by BJ the Bossman on Aug 12, 2009 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

Dear God

I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.

by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 12, 2009 1:38 PM EDT up reply actions  

I like this kind of conversation...

Don’t get me wrong, metric talk is great and provides a level of certainty and clairity that is undeniable. It is so logical, to a certain extent, that one can hardly argue against it. Its definative. Its concreate. Its baseball condenced into reason. Which is what makes it so great.

I don’t see why anyone should shy away from an argument that isn’t quanifiable. You can’t prove a right or a wrong with numbers here. If that’s to be avoided, that’s unfortunate.

by BigBadBossman on Aug 12, 2009 1:43 PM EDT up reply actions  

Or....

we can pretend that baseball is played by souless robots who show no emotion. Again, I blame Jon Brett.

by BigBadBossman on Aug 12, 2009 1:45 PM EDT up reply actions  

First...

A players mentality doesn’t necessarily mean he is “happy” or “joking around.” I’m no sports phycologist and I’m unaware of any statistical way of supporting this, but regardless, it can’t be dismissed that a players mentality- their overal apporach to the game- is directly linked with their preformance. Being “happy” or whatever you want isn’t what I’m getting at. Every player has a different disposition, so who am I to say how BJ needs to “act” or “feel” or whatever. You have to do what works for you. If he has holes in his swing, fine. Fix them. If he is physically hurt. Get healthy.

But when I watch BJ, he looks lost. He is doing thing as of late that are uncharacteristic of his tendancies, his body language is miserable- boardering on frustaration and flat out disinterest. You have to fix that before you fix those holes in your swing.

Look at Grienke, tallented headcase, got help, tallent came back. Maybe BJ just needs to get hop on a supermodel?

If you’re anxious, dejected, nervous, frustrated in your work enviornment, you’re going to underperform. Plain and simple.

by BigBadBossman on Aug 12, 2009 1:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

Why are you yelling at me?

I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.

by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 12, 2009 11:59 AM EDT reply actions  

That's

what B.J. says to critics of his outfielding. lol

by DJS92491 on Aug 12, 2009 12:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'd say his outfielding (is that a word) is fine

I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.

by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 12, 2009 12:01 PM EDT up reply actions  

BJ cares not what people think about him

he only collects paychecks so that he can buy more Rims for his whip and fried chicken.

by Dbullsfan on Aug 12, 2009 12:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

lol

Well that’s what my mental evaluation was of him. I have no idea what to tell him about when it comes to hitting. That’s what coaches are for.

by DJS92491 on Aug 12, 2009 12:04 PM EDT up reply actions  

one of the biggest concerns I have had of his hitting this year

is that he often times looks like he is guessing on pitches and swinging according. This explains how he takes fastballs right down the middle yet will chase one 2 feet outside the zone. It is almost like he is sitting on a pitch and if he gets it he swings no matter where it is and if he doesn’t get it he either doesn’t swing or is late reacting to it. He needs to somehow simplify the game and play off his instincts.

by Dbullsfan on Aug 12, 2009 12:07 PM EDT up reply actions  

Um...

How often do player have their eyes checked?

by DJS92491 on Aug 12, 2009 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

If...

He can see the E’s that look like D’s with one eye covered, then he should be able to watch his pitches and hit them. I believe that he waits for one pitch because he knows that it’s a pitch that he can drive, and that it’s one he has more success with.

When it comes to seeing pitches like he should and hitting what he should be able to hit, that’s mental in my eyes. If he feels like he can only deliver a base hit if a fastball is thrown, no matter how good a curveball looks, he wont swing. This being the main reason why I mentioned getting motivated will help him want to swing at a pitch other than the one he wants.

by DJS92491 on Aug 12, 2009 12:14 PM EDT up reply actions  

I know when Brian Roberts got lasex surgery

he wen’t from ok to an above average lead-off guy.

by Dbullsfan on Aug 12, 2009 12:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

Then again...

Evan Longoria squints a lot. What if he got lasex surgery? He’d be hitting so well that people would think he’s on the list from 2003 even though he wasn’t even playing in the majors then.

by DJS92491 on Aug 12, 2009 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

I dunno.

The Rays would probably do that if Joe Maddon didn’t have his whole trust issues with his players. Joe is like a girlfriend in an abusive relationship. No matter how badly her boyfriend (the Rays) treats his girlfriend (Joe Maddon) his girlfriend still sees the good in him and hopes that the good in him will come out before their relationship (Playoff race) has to end.

You guys like that?

by DJS92491 on Aug 12, 2009 12:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

No.

BJ’s defensive contributions likely outweigh the debits we’d be surrendering with Kap/Zobrist in center and Joyce in RF, not to mention Aybar becoming a full time 2B.

by Suttree on Aug 12, 2009 12:38 PM EDT up reply actions  

When asked about playing a defensive player over an offensive

one the HOF manager Earl Weaver always sided with offense

His reasoning was a great defensive play may happen once a week while a batter may have over 40 PA in that same span

by Raymondo on Aug 12, 2009 12:42 PM EDT up reply actions  

people underestimate how many balls BJ gets too

that Kap/Zo would not be able too and we all know how much our pitchers like having to get extra outs (see David Price’s first 3 runs last night)

by Dbullsfan on Aug 12, 2009 12:45 PM EDT up reply actions  

I was corrected, we'll put Gross out there, and as far as "how many balls BJ gets to"

we have NO way of knowing that

i love when i hear an announcer say those things, w/o proof or ability to prove it

BJ makes great plays, but also takes some bad routes and plays too shallow in late innings

by Raymondo on Aug 12, 2009 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions  

UZR helps with forecasting range

but still you can’t tell me for certain what ball one player will get and another one won’t

by Raymondo on Aug 12, 2009 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

There are currently 4 CF's with an .825 OPS

Kemp, Fukudome, Victorino, and Adam Jones. Man, it sure is easy to find a CF that hits and plays his position.

I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.

by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 12, 2009 1:01 PM EDT up reply actions  

This is pointless.

I can run through the runs conversions all day and prove that B.J. is > than an average CFer most years, but you’ll just focus on one year.

by R.J. Anderson on Aug 12, 2009 1:01 PM EDT up reply actions  

Seriously.

Let’s say you take the .825 OPS guy and he has -5 defense. And B.J. has a .725 OPS and +15 defense.

Offensively, your guy is worth 23 more runs over 650 plate appearances.
Defensively, your guy is worth 20 runs less over that same time frame.

So you gain 3 runs, and that’s without taking stolen bases into account.

by R.J. Anderson on Aug 12, 2009 1:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'm not suggesting a stiff out there

but i’ll give up those couple great plays for a consistent offense

by Raymondo on Aug 12, 2009 1:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'm not sure where you get +15 from RJ

Maybe I’m reading it wrong but FG has him at +8.8, Rasmus, F-Gut, and Taveras are ahead of him defensively, though Rasmus at +20 has to be a fluke. This is UZR/150. Even by UZR you have F-Gut +15.1, Rasmus 11.5, Beej 7.7, Kemp 7.6. Kemp is pretty clearly the best if you look at WAR with Nyjer Morgan (who knew) nipping at his heels.

I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.

by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 12, 2009 1:10 PM EDT up reply actions  

Theoretical example.

I think he’s ~+12 UZR/150, right?

by R.J. Anderson on Aug 12, 2009 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions  

+8.8 by /150

I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.

by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 12, 2009 1:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

Hm, I was wrong then.

So add ~6.2 runs.

Still bitching over less than a win. Even in this hypothetical.

by R.J. Anderson on Aug 12, 2009 1:13 PM EDT up reply actions  

6th in rngruns, 7th in Arm

I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.

by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 12, 2009 1:14 PM EDT up reply actions  

Not worried about the ranks.

I’m just doing the math to prove to him that his ideal CFer isn’t even a win better than B.J.

by R.J. Anderson on Aug 12, 2009 1:14 PM EDT up reply actions  

Well Kemp is ideal right now he's worth 46.2

RAR and Beej is worth 16.8. That’s a pretty big difference, almost 3 wins or 30 runs.

I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.

by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 12, 2009 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

Fukudome is closest to average defense at

-0.4 UZR/150. He has been worth 31.3 RAR, almost double Beej. By UZR, it’s a little closer with Cabrera and Byrd at -0.5 and are worth 13 and 15.4, respectively.

I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.

by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 12, 2009 1:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

They have him as the 15th rated CF by WAR

Maybe last month before he really shit the bed it was higher, but this is as of today.

I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.

by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 12, 2009 1:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

Okay, stolen bases.

A successful steal is worth 0.175 runs
An unsuccessful steal is worth -.467 runs

B.J. is 35/10, which is +2.

If your guy goes, I don’t know, 15 and 5, he’s worth 0.3.

So all your fussing is over about a run.

One run.

by R.J. Anderson on Aug 12, 2009 1:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

The coaches want him playing shallow.

Are you saying B.J. should ignore the coaches?

The FO has obviously decided that taking away OBP points is more important than taking away SLG points. I can’t really disagree.

by R.J. Anderson on Aug 12, 2009 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions  

hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha

Do you actually read anything on this site or do you just come over here to get your zings in against the statheads?

by rglass44 on Aug 12, 2009 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions  

Earl Weaver went 1-3 in the WS

Perhaps he should have valued speed and defense a little more than he did.

I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.

by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 12, 2009 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions  

Oh come on.

If you’re going to do mock racism, at least replace “buy” with “steal”.

You’ll learn.

by R.J. Anderson on Aug 12, 2009 12:07 PM EDT up reply actions  

Really though...

I’m better with the mentality of a pitcher since I’m a pitcher myself. I’m a big guy, but I have only learned to throw a fastball and a circle change so far and I can only touch 74 with my fastball in the radar gun. Mainly because I haven’t been working out like I should, but I still get the job done by only focusing on pitching for contract.

Since David wants to do both, he should only do it via situation. Go for the strike out from your full motion, and then pitch for contact from the stretch. You can’t just randomly decide mid sequence what you want to do. If I did that, I’d be warming up my bullpen.

by DJS92491 on Aug 12, 2009 12:29 PM EDT reply actions  

I truly believe this team could go 0-162 and by metrics

you all could live with that and make perdectly logical sense of it

by Raymondo on Aug 12, 2009 12:59 PM EDT reply actions  

We can't all cry over losses

Try being objective sometime instead of pressing an agenda

I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.

by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 12, 2009 1:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

Mostly, the Rays losing

and somehow the Sux getting their mojo back

by plasticman on Aug 12, 2009 1:27 PM EDT up reply actions  

You seem angry, sure you don't want to talk about it?

I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.

by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 12, 2009 1:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

Watching Youk get tossed around like a rag doll makes it almost worthwhile.

I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.

by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 12, 2009 1:32 PM EDT up reply actions  

It would you Nazi

but that basically won the game for the Sux. Detroit pitcher gets tosses, game over

by plasticman on Aug 12, 2009 1:33 PM EDT up reply actions  

You can stop calling me a Nazi at anytime.

I banter, not ban.

I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.

by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 12, 2009 1:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

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