Do Lesser Pitchers Outperform Their Seasonal FIPs vs. the Rays?

by FreeZorilla on Aug 13, 2009 11:09 AM EDT

The Rays have won all 3 game against the Blue Jays when Roy Halladay has started for Toronto. The Rays were also dominated by Ervin Santana among others who have had less than stellar years. While these individual results create the impression that the Rays offense plays to the level of their competition, is there evidence of a trend across the season?

I lumped each opposing starting pitcher into a group based on his 2009 FIP. The groups are as follows: <3.00, 3.0-3.5, 3.5-4.0, 4.0-4.5, 4.5-5, 5-5.5, and 5.5+. I then aggregated the Innings, Strikeouts, and Walks to come up with the FIP for each group vs. the Rays.

The results are below the jump:

FIP	Innings	Inn/Start	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	FIP
Sub3	64.7	6.5	11	3.6	0.4	2.83
3 - 3.5	37	5.3	10.7	4.4	1.2	4.24
3.5 - 4.0	98.3	5.8	7	3.2	1.6	5.17
4.0 - 4.5	205	6.0	7.7	3	1.1	4.27
4.5 - 5.0	116.3	5.5	6.5	4	1	4.73
5.0-5.5	69.3	5.0	6.9	5.6	0.9	5.05
5.5Plus	50.7	4.6	6.6	4.6	1.8	6.05

The only groups whose FIP vs the Rays are not within their seasonal range are th 3 - 3.5 group and the 3.5 - 4 group. Of course there are still some sample size issues.

A few additional observations:

- The Rays have done a good job of running starting pitchers out of the game.

-Lesser pitchers do not have the high incidence of strikeout success vs. the Rays that the elite pitchers enjoy.

-The big number here that sticks out is the .9 HR/9 vs the 5.0-5.5 group. The Rays have enjoyed a lot of free passes via the walk, but have failed to capitalize via the Home Run.

The Rays Win-Loss record facing each range is such:

FIP	W	L
Sub3	7	3
3 - 3.5	4	3
3.5 - 4.0	9	7
4.0 - 4.5	16	18
4.5 - 5.0	12	9
5.0-5.5	8	6
5.5Plus	5	6

It is hard to believe the Rays could be 7-3 vs pitchers with FIPs below 3 and 20-13 vs pitchers below 4 and only be 61-53.

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Comments

Amazing.

Sub-3 2.83
3-3.5 4.24
3.5-4 5.17
4-4.5 4.27
4.5-5 4.73
5-5.5 5.05
5.5+ 6.05

by R.J. Anderson on Aug 13, 2009 11:12 AM EDT reply actions

It's almost like FIP really works

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by Tommy Rancel on Aug 13, 2009 11:17 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions

Preposterous accusation

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by Buc Wild on Aug 13, 2009 11:42 AM EDT up reply actions

I think what gets lost is...

pitchers with high FIPs do not routinely go out and through their high FIP. They have a greater incidence of implosion but if they consistently FIPed 6’s they woudn’t be MLB starters. On the whole, the group is right where you would expect.

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by FreeZorilla on Aug 13, 2009 11:15 AM EDT reply actions