Rays Playoff Hopes Dim

by R.J. Anderson on Aug 15, 2009 3:32 PM EDT

Our playoff odds are down to 13.8%. We have 47 games remaining against teams with a combined .519 win percentage. The wild card is five games out and if you assume the Red Sox continue playing .574 ball for their remaining 47 games, then the Rays need to go 33-14 to top them. That's 70% ball and against a collective group of opponents with a 52% win percentage themselves; in simple terms: that's not easy. The Rays have to play like the best team in baseball for the next 50 games and hope the Red Sox play like they have all year. Any kind of hot streak and you can forget about it. Observe:

GR	BOS W	BOS W%	TB W	TB W%
47	29	0.617	35	0.745
47	28	0.596	34	0.723
47	27	0.574	33	0.702
47	26	0.553	32	0.681
47	25	0.532	31	0.66

Looks pretty desolate, right? Well, did I mention that even if Boston falls apart, we still have Texas 3.5 ahead of us? Even if we win the next two games and Boston loses - pulling them to 3 games, Texas will have a lead of about the same distance. Now, we do play both a few times from here on out, and 3.5 games seems more doable than 5, but ... it's probably time to face reality and realize there's not a whole lot of hope for playoff baseball.

Yeah, it's a bit disappointing, but we played competitive ball through most of August for the second consecutive year. If you've worn Rays gear for longer than a minute you realize this is a pretty fantastic achievement on its own. Those calling it lousy have their Yankees caps on, or probably never took them off to begin with.

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Briggy just got called up.

Representin' the West Side of Mulberry!

by SeanDubbs on Aug 15, 2009 3:32 PM EDT reply actions

Good Zobot could use a break

I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.

by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 15, 2009 4:27 PM EDT up reply actions

I am happy with our record this season

but RJ, any reasonable fan might be disappointed with the manner in which we lost games this season. Luck or not, I can understand frustration and disappointment with the 2009 Rays, but I think we will have plenty of time to look back upon where things went wrong.

Right now I am just glad that the Rays made an impact on the league this year, instead of being doormats. Fuck Boston, for good measure.

by plasticman on Aug 15, 2009 5:09 PM EDT reply actions

I can live with not making the playoffs and the record...but we have really underachieved

That is just not acceptable. I’m not saying heads need to roll, but the process we used this year just hasn’t worked. We’ve played with the fundamentals of little leaguers. There are so many games that we should have competed far better in if we just played good fundamentally sound baseball from the manager on down. Would that have made up 5 games? Maybe, maybe not, but then I wouldn’t be feeling this total disappointment.

However I am a bit more optimistic than RJ. The reason is simple. We have quite a few games remaining vs the Rangers and RS. We need to win them. It is really as simple as that.

We have 6 games remaining vs both. We need to win at least 4 against both. That’ll get us within striking distance with 36 to go. We can make up a few games in 36. The key is winning the games against the Rangers and Red Sox.

Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks

by matthan on Aug 15, 2009 5:22 PM EDT reply actions