Gregg Zaun Brings His Z-Game, Slams Jays
by R.J. Anderson on Aug 16, 2009 5:18 PM EDT
61 comments
Carl Crawford bunted today and I hate it, hate it, hate it. Crawford is basically a league average hitter against southpaws over the last three years. With a man on second and nobody out 1.19 runs are expected, a runner on third with one out has a RE of 0.98. So, by bunting, the Rays actually lowered the amount of runs expected by 0.11. Even if Carl strikes out - or hits an infield pop, or grounds to third, etc., -- the RE is 0.73.
Jason Bartlett is a pretty good base runner/stealer. Over the last three years his stolen base percentage is over 80% easily - heck, he's near 90% this year despite more attempts - and he's 19-21 stealing third. Of the 15 times he's been on second base when a single is hit, he's scored on six of them. If you want Bartlett to be on third in case of a sac fly, then have him steal third. Instead, Crawford bunts, Evan Longoria strikes out - RE down to 0.39, about 0.05 runs higher than if Bartlett were on second with two outs - and the Rays eventually get nothing out of a runner on second with nobody out.
Sometimes you have to drop a bunt down when the defense doesn't expect it simply to put the thought in their mind. It's basic game theory. The problem is Carl Crawford is a really poor bunter. The last time he reached on a bunt hit was 2006. Crawford's last sacrifice hit? 2007. No defense in the world expects Carl to bunt and two per season doesn't change anything. Even if he did catch the Jays off guard today, his attempt was poor enough to result in an easy out.
Asking B.J. Upton or Bartlett to drop one down is one thing, but someone inexperienced and bad? Not a fan of the call of Joe Maddon's, and I have no idea what Carl was thinking if he did it on his own.
- Sometimes you can't help but laugh at follies; see Carlos Pena's "groundout" in the first.
- Todd Kalas is fantastic in the booth. It's like a positional realignment. You get the idea he would make a nice booth voice since he has the tools for it, but you aren't 100% sure until you hear it. I think the broadcaster WAR would sort like this:
- Dewayne Staats 5.1
- Todd Kalas 4.4
- Brian Anderson 2.5
- Kevin Kennedy -2.0
- Kalas is refreshing. He wasn't a cliché machine, knows the team, and seems to have a pretty good grasp on the realities of the game. I'm not expecting in-depth analysis or groundbreaking thought. I want to be entertained and left without feeling annoyed. Kalas does both, and does both well.
- Gregg Zaun: 4 HR in 197 PA with the Orioles;2 HR in 17 PA with the Rays.
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Garza flirted with disaster today.
H/T to the pen for bringing their Z game.
www.draysbay.com
by Tommy Rancel on Aug 16, 2009 5:21 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
I am not mssing Rhyne Hughes today
WAR aside Zaun made a one win difference on the season today.
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
by FreeZorilla on Aug 16, 2009 5:26 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
What made Zaun's AB so awesome
he didn’t chase anything! wooooo for plate discipline from a C
by Transplanted on Aug 16, 2009 5:28 PM EDT up reply actions
Kalas was awesome
even talking a little bit about UZR (though he didnt mention it by name) and talking about how advanced defensive metrics would grade Carl very highly. Also, I love me some Zaun. Lets take the next 6.
the only reason i can think they wouldnt have him full time
i think we be lack of former player/manager in the booth, sometimes KK can drag on with ‘when i was a manager….’ but i dont know, sometimes he has really insightful things to say from the experience of actually being a manager and points out (anderson does also) little things, machanics etc that a normal baseball fan might not notice
by Toe Finch on Aug 16, 2009 7:03 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
definatley think the chemistry between BA and Staats is too awesome to pass up.
If Kalas is in the booth then who is in “the field”
Honestly I like Kalas or someone like him as the on-field guy
More attractive women come to the games then
You stay classy, Raymondo.
Into the Wall : Sarcasm for the Soccer Guy
by ReasonableDoubt on Aug 16, 2009 7:30 PM EDT up reply actions
You realize "Reasonable Doubt" has nothing to do with personal injury, right?
Into the Wall : Sarcasm for the Soccer Guy
by ReasonableDoubt on Aug 16, 2009 9:54 PM EDT up reply actions
It doesn't bug me. It's just incorrect.
Into the Wall : Sarcasm for the Soccer Guy
by ReasonableDoubt on Aug 16, 2009 10:23 PM EDT up reply actions
WRATH. OF. ZAAAAAAUUUUUNNNNNN
/shakes fist in the air
Into the Wall : Sarcasm for the Soccer Guy
by ReasonableDoubt on Aug 16, 2009 6:00 PM EDT reply actions
its a heck of a lot better than the wrath of navi/michel platoon
Rays fan in NC
Over the Monster: an unofficial blog for Red Sox bandwagon "Fans"
I like my color guy to have a really good grasp of the nuiances of the game.
Which is why I liked Magrane, like Anderson, and want to like Kennedy. I like Kalas, but if anything, I’d like him better as a play-by-play stand-in, or taking over for Staats if he decides to move on for some reason.
I wonder if the Phillies are going to look at Todd to take over for his dad after the season’s over?
I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.
WOW russ springer looks strikingly like troy percival......cept less fat
Rays fan in NC
Over the Monster: an unofficial blog for Red Sox bandwagon "Fans"
guess thats what happens when your 40+
Rays fan in NC
Over the Monster: an unofficial blog for Red Sox bandwagon "Fans"
3.5 back of Texas, 3 back of Boston. 45 to play
6 against Texas (3 home, 3 away)
6 against Boston (3 home and 3 away)
Texas and Boston don’t play again this year
www.bucem.com - SBNation's source for all things Buccaneer
I mentioned this prior to Saturdays game
THe fact that we have a lot of games vs Texas and Boston (as well as Boston and Texas facing each other) made our chances better than what the naked eye would typically see. Even still we have to take 4 of 6 vs both teams. If we can do that I think we have a pretty good shot
Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks
Alright well a couple wins on the west coast trip and we coulda been looking at being 1.5 behind in the wildcard
"Doesn't Manny Ramirez look like the monster from Predator??" - Will Farrell as Harry Carey
Jesus Christ this site is full of Negative Nancys
Into the Wall : Sarcasm for the Soccer Guy
by ReasonableDoubt on Aug 16, 2009 8:16 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
wait a minute
one of those games (aka the first Seattle game) was all but ours until the very last pitch…..I don’t need to remind anyone of what happened. We shouldn’t be losing series to shitty teams (the Marines). Thats all im saying
"Doesn't Manny Ramirez look like the monster from Predator??" - Will Farrell as Harry Carey
by Gone Phishing on Aug 16, 2009 8:31 PM EDT up reply actions
you do realize Seattle is only 2.5 behind us right?
4 games over .500 isn’t exactly shitty.
OT my vote for Wakamatsu Manager of the Year still going strong.
Agreed, Seattle isn't a shitty team.
But the Rays are better then them, right? Well, I guess it’s no big deal, it’s only one series.
Minnesota’s not a shitty team either, but we’re better then them, right? Well, no big deal, it’s only one series.
Colorado’s not a shitty team either, but we’re better then them, right? Well, no big deal, it’s only one series.
Texas isn’t a shitty team either, but we’re better then them, right? Well, no big deal, it’s only one series.
The White Sox aren’t a shitty team either, but we’re better then them, right? Well, no big deal, it’s only one series.
God forbid I mention the shitty teams we’ve lost road series too, like Oakland, Cleveland, and Baltimore. But those were each only one series. Or the good teams, like the Angels or Yankees. They’re only one too.
Man, that added up fast, didn’t it?
I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.
by kericr on Aug 16, 2009 10:39 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
thats what I'm saying!
Not negative nancies, but come on, you cant be content with losses anytime
"Doesn't Manny Ramirez look like the monster from Predator??" - Will Farrell as Harry Carey
by Gone Phishing on Aug 17, 2009 12:32 AM EDT up reply actions
THE ZAUNBIE INVASION HAS COME. PREPARE OR ELSE.
2009 Rays Baseball: BATTING STANCE GUY MUST DIE
Be a TRUE Seminole: http://www.seminoles.com/sports/m-footbl/spec-rel/071509aab.html
I didn't see the bunt
Was it a true sac or was he bunting for a base hit? I don’t mind him trying to get a hit even though he is a traditionally a poor bunter. For all we know he has been working on that skill.
Bunting as a sac is really only worth it when the value of the first run is extremely high.
Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks
It seemed like a sac bunt
With Bartlett on second. Was a perfect sacrifice, just seemed pointless at hte time.
I am starting to think Kalas is already our best PBP guy, I may have him right ahead of Statts
but they both do play by play, neither does “color commentary” really. If only to test it, I would like to watch 1 game announced by Kalas and Anderson
but any combo not involving Kennedy works for me
1. James Shields 2. Scott Kazmir 3. Matt Garza 4. David Price 5. Jeff Niemann
not sure if anyone else caught this but what does Rotoworld know that we don't
TB exerpt from an article on Sep. call-ups.
Tampa Bay – David Price appears bullpen bound, so Andy Sonnanstine will likely rejoin the rotation next month. Another option would be to turn to top prospect Wade Davis. Sonnanstine should be the choice is he finishes August strong. After six straight quality starts to open his stint at Durham, he gave up six runs last time out, leaving him 4-2 with a 4.30 ERA. Assuming that he’s picked, he’ll be worth using in AL-only leagues. … Matt Joyce will definitely be recalled, but if the Rays wanted him in the right-field mix, they’d have him up right now. His production has waned as the year has gone on, so little should be expected. … If top prospect Desmond Jennings is promoted, it will likely be to act as a pinch-runner. … Shortstop Reid Brignac was called up Saturday. He’ll likely be demoted in a couple of days and then recalled again on Sept. 1.
im sure they won't be going crazy bringing up players
Durham is playoff bound. I think the FO might cut them some slack so they can contend for the governours cup
"Doesn't Manny Ramirez look like the monster from Predator??" - Will Farrell as Harry Carey
by Gone Phishing on Aug 16, 2009 10:19 PM EDT up reply actions
That doesn't make sense, and Rotoworld isn't known for having an inside track to anything the Rays do.
Since this hasn’t been reported by any of the local outlets yet, I’d take all of this information as nothing more then speculation. Price only has 72 innings this year, and I think he’s only on pace for around 100 or so. It doesn’t make sense to move him to the bully when the team has held the line and done everything they could to keep him a starter this year. If anything, I’d think Andy would be going to the bullpen.
I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.
Probably taking a crack at which starter will not make playoff rotation if we make it
I would guess its between him and Kaz and I think I would leave Kaz in the rotation
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
Hey you guys I heard Gregg ZAUN hit a Pitch-Hit GS!!!?
Wow…good for you guys.
I’m glad to see you’re finally winning games again.
Also this…Rhyne Hughes, his stats seem pretty good, but we’re you guys really that desperate for a 37 year old catcher or is there some sort of major downside to this guy…i.e. terrible D, really slow, etc…? Just asking : )
He's adequate, but nothing that will set the world on fire. Also, the infield here is crowded enough. He wasn't going anywhere.
Into the Wall : Sarcasm for the Soccer Guy
by ReasonableDoubt on Aug 16, 2009 10:41 PM EDT up reply actions
Has good power, little plate discipline and a lot of whiffs
BA exploded in Durham, but hes not a hitter for average with his K rate
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
by FreeZorilla on Aug 16, 2009 10:45 PM EDT up reply actions
From everything I've heard, he should be capable of playing at the MLB level.
He won’t be a star, but he should be relatively solid and stick around once he gets up. He’ll probably end up as a guy whose well traveled, never being quite good enough to be a piece to the puzzle, but plenty good enough to fill some team’s hole at 1B.
I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.
I see you guys have a series against Baltimore coming up...
You guys can mark down the Tuesday game as an easy win as Jason Berken is perhaps the worst pitcher currently on the team (outside of Matt Albers who is really sucking it up as of late, but not all year), but 2-10 is pretty consistently bad. For the other two games you guys get to face Chris Tillman and Brian Matusz…just saying don’t play too much into the high ERAs with them…It’ll be Tillman’s fifth start and Matusz’s fourth, both have been inconsistent at times, but they’re the real deal.
Berken will find a way to no-hit us.
That’s just how it works.
by Doug09 on Aug 17, 2009 2:56 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Jebus, we have to go to Toronto in two weeks, and slotted for Halladay again
Into the Wall : Sarcasm for the Soccer Guy
by ReasonableDoubt on Aug 16, 2009 10:52 PM EDT reply actions
Fuck me!
Will that be the 5th time we’ve faced him this year?
Po Pimpin'
by PriceMultiCyYoungs on Aug 17, 2009 7:54 AM EDT up reply actions
Zaunimal got me a grand slam for my burfday.
So long, Sweet Lime!
by PlayOnWords on Aug 16, 2009 11:38 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
On ESPN they keep saying that the Rays haven't had any big winning streaks yet this year
But haven’t we gone on a couple 6 or 7 game winning streaks back in June? Didn’t the Rays win 8 in a row at some point? It hasn’t been the lack of a “big run” that’s hurt us, it’s the inconsistency. The Rays can go 7-1 on a home stand and then suddenly lose 4 in a row on the road.
I think it's important to keep in mind
that part of the reason the run expectancy is 1.19 with a man on second and 0 out is because sometimes the batter makes an out that advances the runner and creates a sac RBI situation. I suspect if you removed all the situations in which a batter bunted the runner over to third, the run expectancy in that situation would be much lower. The 1.19 number includes situations in which the batter makes a productive out, and while a bunt drops the run expectancy to 0.98, obviously it doesn’t drop it as much as a ground out to 3rd, or short, or a shallow fly ball, or a screaming line drive at the first baseman, etc.
Bartlett is a good base stealer, and I agree it’s better to steal 3rd if you can, but I don’t agree that bunting him over in a close game is a terrible play.
Crawfrod as a lefty is more likely to advance the runner, so there is a good chance for a sac fly or GO to the right side for a productive out
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
Point taken
and I’m not saying I would have sacrificed in that situation. In fact, I did not see the game, but I don’t think run expectancies should be used as a blanket analysis of managerial decisions. I do think that happens at times. They certainly are an important guideline, but the manager should also take into account specific game situations (does a single run likely win the game, etc.?) and specific match-ups (i.e. Crawford is 17 for 30 lifetime against this guy, no way am I bunting). You obviously applied that thinking in your comment above.
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