A Quick Look at the Rotation

It is related to an issue that has been discussed on this site in a few different threads and, in my view, belies the notion that a team has a surplus of pitching and so should actively seek to maximize value by trading some. Actually, as you noted about outfielders, my guess is the same situation applies to any position. (Consider the catchers in Texas.)

That is not the same as saying that a team ought not trade from perceived strength. Certainly if a talent is blocked already it makes sense to deal away someone to clear space. (cf: the Edwin Jackson deal.) But it should not anticipate a glut in advance and assume it has to clear away some room sooner rather than later.

Although I don’t think we could really use this as evidence that we have to get as much ML ready starting pitching as possible. I don’t think that was your intention though.

I do think we need to trim the numbers. Who and what for? That is for AF to decide.

I just think it is dumb to essentially go into a season with over 7 strong ML ready starters. I also think it is dumb to hold onto a valuable piece essentially waiting for an injury. I understand injuries happen, but having an elite guy waiting in the wings (past when he is ready) doesn’t make sense. It is a value loss all the way around. If the guy doesn’t get hurt, your top prospects value diminishes. If he does get hurt then that guy has lost major value as well as the lost time in the majors for the prospect. I’d imagine you’d be better off dealing one of them to get max value and then if an injury does occur plug in a major league ready starting pitcher. Guys like Talbot, Hernandez, Cormier, etc should be your injury replacements. Once elite guys like Hellickson or Davis are ready you need to either trade them or make room for them in a reasonable time frame. Not doing so diminishes their value.

I’m not saying something has to happen right this moment. I think 1 guy out of our top 7 (the ML 5 plus D and H) needs to be traded by the next deadline and 2 guys need to be moved by around next offseason. Of course the timing depends largely on who we want to deal.

The TO for our team should naturally be less than most. We shouldn’t be facing performance based issues.

trading starting pitchers for depth elsewhere. I think the issue is whether they should anticipate the need to do so before it is clearly apparent. And on that score, my answer is “generally no”.

I don’t think there are hard and fast rules here. Suppose the Rangers were willing to deal us Smoak for Hellickson. I think the Rays might consider it. That is not the point.

What is the point is that, aside from that trade being most unlikely, I don’t think the Rays should be assuming (1). that in 2010 there will be a glut of pitching that has to be thinned out or (2). that our minor league pitching prospects will lose value if they are not dealt soon.

If those pitchers are really good, they will retain their value to any team hungry for pitching. Or they can be used to replace a major league pitcher who is traded at the peak of his value. I do not see the urgency in pursuing deals of that sort now when the dangers far outweigh the expected benefits. And I do not think that a surplus of talent at any position is ever a negative. A smart front office can always adjust so as to maximize the value of its talent.