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Carl Crawford

You know that old saying about how familiarity breeds contempt? I would tweak it and say that familiarity mostly breeds apathy. I don't hate Carl Crawford. Never will. I have no ill will or distaste for him. I've grown to accept his - at times ridiculously - flawed approached in pitch selection and love his ability to turn just about any batted ball in left field into an out.

Yeah, I've written about trading him and people don't like that very much. I don't blame them. It's not like I want to trade Crawford on a personal level though. It's never personal. Crawford is no longer the shiny new toy on a team full of ‘em. Evan Longoria is the star, David Price is the arm, and Crawford is just sorta there, in the background, much like he was in the league picture years ago.

For years I've thumbed my nose at the ‘franchise player' talk. Not the concept of having an extremely talented player on your team, one that everyone identifies with, but rather the guy who simply has to retire with the team. To be honest I'm still not a huge fan of it. Blame it on the baseball environment or whatever. I remember seeing Fred McGriff look absolutely horrible when he retired as a member of this organization and I'd rather not see my other favorites do the same.

Mortality plays a part. Realizing that McGriff was too old to play is a startling realization that time does not stand still. Nobody wants to be old. Some want to be older or the oldest, but not old. Most baseball players aren't like Barry Bonds or Rickey Henderson or Roger Clemens, performing well into the days they should be hanging them up and doing it better than most of the baseball player population. Some are Willie Mays or Ken Griffey J. or countless other guys who held on too long and, while not ruining their legacy, leave that trace of fear in their most tenured fans.

But this isn't about mortality or fear in human nature, it's about Crawford.

Star-divide

He sounds like the perfect athlete when you talk about his options as a high school senior. Pick the 10 most prestigious jobs in collegiate sports during the 1990s and you end up with a list that includes Nebraska quarterback and UCLA point guard. He also had the baseball thing going, but I don't think "Left fielder, Tampa Bay Devil Rays" was something too many 18-year-olds dreamed about back in the late 90s.

Sure, he's said some things that rubbed me the wrong way, but I'm completely wrong for ever questioning Carl's selfish take on changing positions or not watching film or whatever else it was. Crawford knew what worked for him and when he reached the point in his playing career where he felt he needed more than instincts, he took up film watching. He didn't want to stand in center some days, which, okay, you probably don't ask Evan Longoria to play shortstop when Jason Bartlett gets a day off either. I regret writing negative things and have learned from it.

Carl doesn't like to talk, but when he does, there's a scintilla of humility that makes you realize he doesn't particularly care for quotes or commercials or endorsements. He's blunt, sure, and sometimes that gets him in trouble, but he's honest to the point where you can't help but love that he speaks from his soul instead of his agent's handbook. That's when he says something though, and I suppose that makes the shots at Delmon Young last spring all the more damming.

Of course he's always been a very good baseball player, even if the last two years were closer to "above average" than "superstar".  So when I glanced on his FanGraphs paged and noticed he was worth 4.6 wins to date, I scratched my head and kicked myself for not noticing earlier.

It's odd because I look at the Rays WAR values weekly, and I've noticed his name and placement, probably the number too, but it didn't click. Crawford's previous career high came in 2005 with 4.9 WAR. That was wedged in between seasons of 4.7 and 4.5 WAR, and may have been the best season in his career. At least until now.

Okay, he's still hacking like usual. That little run of discipline wore off quickly, but whatever, he makes it work. His walk rate is up and so are his strikeouts but his BB/K ratio is still the best of his career. No, he's not a power hitter, his ISO is .156. Three years ago we'd be wondering what's wrong with Carl's pop, nowadays we just take it for what it is. He'll probably never hit 20 home runs barring a move to a hitter's park, but he is hitting home runs at a wicked rate per fly ball at 10.3%. That's the second highest of his career.

His fielding raises more brows than Botox and his routes are sometimes lumpy enough to need an injection of the anti-aging serum.  He is a fantastic base stealer. I would say the best in baseball. Speed might be the attraction and vehicle, but his mind and understanding of the nuances surrounding pickoff moves, first movement, and acceleration are off the charts.

He is by no means the textbook baseball player and yet you feel like there's enough text to be written on him to fill up a book. We will all be lucky if Desmond Jennings were to become a facsimile of Crawford. This raises my point. This may be Carl Crawford's last run with the Rays. Whether the finances work or not is unbeknownst to us, which is exactly why, no matter your stance on trading Crawford or letting him walk or extending him, take these next 40-something games, and cherish every play, at-bat, stolen base, and absorb more memories.

Take pictures, record games, buy Crawford memorabilia, and just make sure you have your fill. Let the Crawford body of work pervade throughout your baseball soul, so when he makes that half-diving grab for his next team, you can simply recall the times when he did it better for the Rays.  Crawford is easily the best player in franchise history, ignore the longevity of the franchise and focus on the icon before he becomes a blur, and we all know, Crawford is extremely good at making his presence nothing but history.

I've taken him for granted to this point in the year, but no longer. I'm not going to look back in 10 years and wonder where that time went, meanwhile Crawford hangs the spikes up, moving on to teach his son about reading left-handers pickoff moves.

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...Well, this is depressing.

;_;

Brad Ziegler had a scoreless inning streak. Brad Ziegler had not met BJ Upton.

by P Brady on Aug 19, 2009 10:50 PM EDT reply actions  

Zobrist has like 3-4 years left of Team Control

Brad Ziegler had a scoreless inning streak. Brad Ziegler had not met BJ Upton.

by P Brady on Aug 19, 2009 10:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

of course, but that's not what i gathered from the thread

more of the McGriff comparison to Crawford

i’m hoping he’s here for another 4-5 years

by sternfan1 on Aug 19, 2009 10:59 PM EDT up reply actions  

I love how someone can write 1,100+ words on a topic

And you try to completely tear apart the premise in one sentence.

Into the Wall : Sarcasm for the Soccer Guy

by ReasonableDoubt on Aug 19, 2009 11:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

Eh, the McGriff comparison is a personal thing more than anything.

I wasn’t smart enough to know how good Winn was and never had a big connection to Huff. Lugo wasn’t here for that long. Hall was … Hall.

by R.J. Anderson on Aug 19, 2009 11:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

Winn was always my fsvorite DRay until Zo

I never even gave Pinella a chance

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Aug 20, 2009 7:51 AM EDT up reply actions  

I have no idea how you can read this entire post

and that’s what you come away from it with. I’m not sure you could have missed the point any more thoroughly.

by acelion on Aug 20, 2009 9:12 AM EDT up reply actions  

wow

Very well written but why do I feel like I just found out that a family member of mine only has a few months to live? That really was kind of depressing

Regressing to the mean streets of St. Pete

by stpetelawyer on Aug 19, 2009 11:00 PM EDT via mobile reply actions  

CC needs money

Fuck bitches, get money
You wanna sip Mo’ on my living room flo’
Play Nintendo with Cease-a-Leo
Pick up my phone say, “Poppa not home”
Sex all night, mad head in the morn’
Spin my V, smoke all my weed
Tattoo on tit-tie sayin B-I-G, now check it
You wanna be my main squeeze baby
Don’tcha, you wanna gimme what I need baby
Won’tcha, picture life as my wife just think
Full length mink, fat X and O links

by acablue on Aug 19, 2009 11:15 PM EDT reply actions  

What I'll always remember about CC is

when he tossed me that ball after making that catch at the wall on 8/19/2009. Hey wait…That was tonight!

Weeeeeeeeeee!

Sign lady must die.
Be the first on your block to own DRB Gear.

by EminenceFront on Aug 19, 2009 11:16 PM EDT reply actions  

You motherfucker.

Brad Ziegler had a scoreless inning streak. Brad Ziegler had not met BJ Upton.

by P Brady on Aug 19, 2009 11:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

I remember stealing home vs. Boston more

or him running in after ALCS Game 7

Swav or Die (>'-')> <('-')> <('-'<)
For the lulz

by SRQman on Aug 20, 2009 1:41 AM EDT up reply actions  

Seriously?

That’s awesome.

I convinced my fiance to use Rays colors for our wedding. What have you done lately?

by BWoodrum on Aug 20, 2009 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions  

also, great write up, really heartfelt stuff.

hopefully we’ll be reading the same article about upton in 5 years time.

by davidsmarch on Aug 19, 2009 11:34 PM EDT reply actions  

honestly, best article you've ever written

it’s rare to find such passion in people’s words anymore. Great article, good reminiscing, and you hit the nail on the head completely.

by raysfaninminnesota on Aug 19, 2009 11:58 PM EDT reply actions  

I dont want him to leave and the FO shouldn't either.

I really believe that if they want to stay competitive, they need to sign him. Carl Crawford should always be a Ray. From his first at-bat to his last, I just can’t manage to see him on another team, the jersey to the face wouldn’t look right.

Cant Deezy play right and we call it an outfield?

"Doesn't Manny Ramirez look like the monster from Predator??" - Will Farrell as Harry Carey

by Gone Phishing on Aug 20, 2009 12:02 AM EDT reply actions  

that's been my dream since the season began

No other outfield in baseball could cover ground like Crawford-Upton-Jennings. That would be friggin sweet!

by raysfaninminnesota on Aug 20, 2009 12:07 AM EDT up reply actions  

whats so wrong with retaining players?

You make it sound like he is a tumor in our success

"Doesn't Manny Ramirez look like the monster from Predator??" - Will Farrell as Harry Carey

by Gone Phishing on Aug 20, 2009 11:23 AM EDT up reply actions  

1. The Rays have a finite payroll.

2. We have two able body replacements.
3. Crawford is getting near the age you would expect his production to drop, but it’s also his first big payday.

1+2+3 = Probably not the best allocation of assets.

by R.J. Anderson on Aug 20, 2009 11:25 AM EDT up reply actions  

I completely support this article!

I also really hope we can keep him, he truly is a joy to watch everyday. Best article I’ve read so far RJ, keep it up!

by CCtheMVP on Aug 20, 2009 12:06 AM EDT reply actions  

*punches wall, lets anguished nerves overwhelm tears*

RJ ANDERSEN IS A CUM BUCKET FOR DUDES

So long, Sweet Lime!

by PlayOnWords on Aug 20, 2009 12:10 AM EDT reply actions  

I think we all want CC to stay.

We should start a rally for the FO to realize the fans want him here for the rest of his career!

"Doesn't Manny Ramirez look like the monster from Predator??" - Will Farrell as Harry Carey

by Gone Phishing on Aug 20, 2009 12:12 AM EDT reply actions  

And yet

I looked out over the field tonight at the boys in orange and black: Jones, Reimold, Tillman, Mickolio…they all came back to Baltimore in a trade involving the team’s best player. Those four will help the team compete for many years. Is the nostalgia worth the payroll burden?

So long, Sweet Lime!

by PlayOnWords on Aug 20, 2009 12:14 AM EDT up reply actions  

Unfortunately, this.

Brad Ziegler had a scoreless inning streak. Brad Ziegler had not met BJ Upton.

by P Brady on Aug 20, 2009 12:17 AM EDT up reply actions  

it depends on the burden

it has to be a two-way street for CC to remain a Ray. At what price is he willing to remain a Ray? No matter what the Rays offer him, he will definitely get more years or more money from a big-market team. I had the chance to interview CC a few years ago when I was working at a radio station in minnesota and I specifically asked him about a comment he made about ‘wanting’ to be a Ray. He mentioned that he could go somewhere else for a bigger spotlight, but he rather wanted to stay and create his own niche with the Rays. He wanted to build something in St. Pete.

If he still feels this way, and the Rays offer something reasonable, I think he stays. a 4 year deal that pays 10-12 mil a season gets the job done. Carl has made millions. With this contract he’ll make plenty more. I think he’d rather continue to build his own thing here, stay where he’s comfortable. Carl is old school. I think he really would like to play his whole career with the Rays. If the Rays are willing to continue to pay Carl what they are paying for him essentially next year, I think he remains a Ray.

by raysfaninminnesota on Aug 20, 2009 12:20 AM EDT up reply actions  

Some people want to be a legacy with one team

I know moving around and doing good will also make people remember you but he is the face of a franchise and anytime someone thinks of the Rays years down the line will think of Carl Crawford first

"Doesn't Manny Ramirez look like the monster from Predator??" - Will Farrell as Harry Carey

by Gone Phishing on Aug 20, 2009 12:22 AM EDT up reply actions  

If Torii Hunter gets the deal he got, Crawford is getting a shitload

Brad Ziegler had a scoreless inning streak. Brad Ziegler had not met BJ Upton.

by P Brady on Aug 20, 2009 12:23 AM EDT up reply actions  

if it becomes a game of who got what from what team, then CC will be playing elsewhere

CC can get a huge contract if that’s what he wants. But if he wants to stay with the Rays, and his words and actions in the past have shown this, then he will accept less to stay. In the end, I think a deal gets done. Something like 4yrs, 40mil sounds about right. Yes, CC could earn a whole lot more elsewhere, but if the Rays at least offer that, I think he’ll take it.

by raysfaninminnesota on Aug 20, 2009 12:26 AM EDT up reply actions  

I beg to differ

I would never consider CC “payroll burden”. Anyone not producing at high amounts is payroll burden.

I’m sorry but whether or not we are a small market team, you can’t just give up everytime something is more money than can be handled. Thats what budgeting is for. They (FO) have to spend money to make money

"Doesn't Manny Ramirez look like the monster from Predator??" - Will Farrell as Harry Carey

by Gone Phishing on Aug 20, 2009 12:20 AM EDT up reply actions  

CC deserves to get mad $$$

We can’t do that. This team doesn’t operate in a vacuum. It’s pay him and watch as guys like BJ, Garza, and co. walk out the door, or get what we can for CC and use that money to lock up more of our core.

I <3 CC as much as anyone, but these are the economics of the game.

So long, Sweet Lime!

by PlayOnWords on Aug 20, 2009 12:31 AM EDT up reply actions  

But also consider that by keeping CC

The FO can send a message to other players that the Rays aren’t a revolving door, and that if you’re willing to negotiate with them and play well, you can stay. The economics of the game also suggest job security is a priority. Furthermore, that core could very well feel that they’re better off with keeping CC.

by CCtheMVP on Aug 20, 2009 12:50 AM EDT up reply actions  

I find a lot of that to be speculative, to be honest.

So long, Sweet Lime!
Let's tweet our meats together; @mrmalapropism
Hans Loebel's #1 Fan and #1 Favorite Top Person of All Time. We s no stopping our love, not even rainbows made of ice and steel.

by PlayOnWords on Aug 20, 2009 12:54 AM EDT up reply actions  

It definitely is, the point being that

you’re still dealing with humans, not robots, hence why I enjoyed this article.

by CCtheMVP on Aug 20, 2009 12:55 AM EDT up reply actions  

We're all just data in Bill James' spreadsheets. Even you and me, CCtheMVP. And our families and secret fears.

So long, Sweet Lime!
Let's tweet our meats together; @mrmalapropism
Hans Loebel's #1 Fan and #1 Favorite Top Person of All Time. There's no stopping our love, not even rainbows made of ice and steel.

by PlayOnWords on Aug 20, 2009 12:57 AM EDT up reply actions  

I guess that's debatable. I'd say the guy in your avatar is the core.

So long, Sweet Lime!
Let's tweet our meats together; @mrmalapropism
Hans Loebel's #1 Fan and #1 Favorite Top Person of All Time. There's no stopping our love, not even rainbows made of ice and steel.

by PlayOnWords on Aug 20, 2009 10:14 AM EDT up reply actions  

Here's the deal, CC is a very important part of our team and he will not be given away.

He will however, be shopped. And if we can get a deal like the Rangers got for Teixeira then we have to take it.

Tools Whore

by Tyler on Aug 20, 2009 4:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

The Orioles were also no where near contending.

The Rays are coming off a World Series run and have the pieces in place to contend for years. Does it make sense to trade away (arguably) your best player for building blocks when you’re already contending?

by floridaroar on Aug 20, 2009 12:49 PM EDT up reply actions  

Me too.

Spetember?

I know it won’t happen this year, but I can dream can’t I?

by rglass44 on Aug 20, 2009 10:55 AM EDT up reply actions  

I think we need to win a championship now

If Carl can win one and be convinced that the future in Tampa will bring success why would he go to another team when this one is capable of making him a world series champion?

"Doesn't Manny Ramirez look like the monster from Predator??" - Will Farrell as Harry Carey

by Gone Phishing on Aug 20, 2009 12:26 AM EDT reply actions  

that was like

a high school commencement speech

by Toe Finch on Aug 20, 2009 1:25 AM EDT via mobile reply actions  

This is a great post, probably your best

but I don’t see why everyone is packing his bags

Percival, Bradford, Nelson, Shouse, Iwamura, Kapler( a million is nothing to sneeze out) are all off the books
We should sell high on Barty and save the what 4 mil? he will make in arby
Also when CC is a FA so will PTB, Pena and Wheeler

If we want to, it wouldnt even be that hard to make CC a career Ray

1. James Shields 2. Scott Kazmir 3. Matt Garza 4. David Price 5. Jeff Niemann

by joeybw on Aug 20, 2009 1:30 AM EDT reply actions  

Well the question is it optimal to gamble 60+ million

When you have to get a couple of important pieces signed like JP & Garza

by Transplanted on Aug 20, 2009 2:52 AM EDT up reply actions  

Actually, that's never been the question.

I’m pretty sure that the answer to that question is no. It’s always going to be no. The question IMO, is are the Rays willing to swallow hard and offer a deal to him to keep him around through the end of his prime. This will sound weird, but if the Rays decide to offer CC an extension, I don’t think they should be looking at it as money spent on payroll. Offering CC an extension would be an investment in the franchise. I’m inclined to agree with RJ on keeping CC until retirement; but trying to get him under contract until he’s 32, 33, 34 with a willingness to overpay for his production in maybe the last year or two for the sake of establishing CC as a franchise player and assuring that if he reaches the hall of fame, he does so as a Ray is something that I would take into serious consideration.

Crawford is almost the forgotten man in this area and on this team. He’s been here so long and has been good for so long that he blends in with the palm trees.

I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.

by kericr on Aug 20, 2009 7:04 AM EDT up reply actions  

I can’t wait until we trade him for a reliever.

by walkoffwalk on Aug 20, 2009 7:48 AM EDT up reply actions  

This is an outstanding point

IMO Carl is likely to be a HOF player, and I think overpaying for his production may pay dividends in fan base growth and marketing. I’m pessimistic about Carl staying through the prime of his career, but I’m going to keep hope alive until he leaves.

I grew up in Houston, and I remember Biggio and Bagwell both giving the Astros something of a “home-team discount” when they came up for free agency. Here’s hoping Carl and the FO can find a middle ground.

by Deepdoodle on Aug 20, 2009 7:50 AM EDT up reply actions  

Well I just want to be clear.

If the Rays FO makes this decision, they can’t make it under the premise that any of CC’s money is going against payroll. They have to look at it as spending money to do something else and budget it as such. The team’s payroll budget needs to be projected to be the same, with or without CC, and his contract has to be viewed as something completely different. They can’t budget payroll and have one player taking 1/5 of their budget; that’s just absurd.

That being said, I find it very odd that the team hasn’t announced they’re picking up his extension. They’re not going to release him, he’s easily playing like he’s worth more then 10.125M, and it doesn’t matter if he’s picked up or not if they manage to trade him in the offseason. What are they waiting for?

I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.

by kericr on Aug 20, 2009 8:08 AM EDT up reply actions  

Playing devil's advocate here...

but maybe they’re waiting to see how he is physically at the end of the season. Don’t forget last year he had a problem with his hammy, and perhaps they want to see the results of his modified off-season regimen in determining if the option should be picked up or not. However, I think the performance on the field suggests he’s fine.

by CCtheMVP on Aug 20, 2009 8:50 AM EDT up reply actions  

Perhaps

30 of 1st 31 SB attempts were successful 96.8%
24 of last 34 for 70.6%

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Aug 20, 2009 9:00 AM EDT up reply actions  

Indeed. He did say earlier this year (a couple months ago if I recall) that the turf is hard on his legs and wears himself down as the season goes on.

He mentioned it in an interview where the interviewer asked him if he was going to steal 100 bases this year.

But then again, being on pace to play 161 out of 162 games, that would probably wear your legs out a little bit.

I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.

by kericr on Aug 20, 2009 9:10 AM EDT up reply actions  

It's gonna be sad when he leaves.....

He basically was the reason to watch this team for so many years.

Swav or Die (>'-')> <('-')> <('-'<)
For the lulz

by SRQman on Aug 20, 2009 3:17 AM EDT reply actions  

Good piece

With so many players on board for below market value (Longo, Shields, Garza, Zobrist, Upton, Howell) it would be pretty cool to see the Rays pony up full market value for CC to extend the window another year or two. Starting with picking up that option, especially since 6+ million go off the books this year with Percival and Isringhausen.

by gatorman2k2 on Aug 20, 2009 9:14 AM EDT reply actions  

RJ, please bookmark this post

so when CC is ‘regressing’ at a fast rate 3 years into his 6 year mega deal with another team you can re-post it and all the homers who are crying about the FO not ’ponying ’ up can realize what a mistake it would have been to keep him.

Look at the 2000 AL ROY voting and try not to laugh.

by RaysnNoles on Aug 20, 2009 9:28 AM EDT reply actions  

The interesting thing will be how he ages.

It’s tough to expect a guy with hamstring/knee issues, little in the way of plate discipline, and dependent on his batting average to age well… but, you never know. Similar things were said about Johnny Damon.

by Suttree on Aug 20, 2009 9:38 AM EDT up reply actions  

If CC's going to demand a 6+ year deal, you've got to let him walk.

I’d consider giving him 4 with back-to-back team options and low buyouts for both of those years. Six years and 100+ million on any left-fielder is ridiculous.

I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.

by kericr on Aug 20, 2009 9:55 AM EDT up reply actions  

3/40 please

I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.

by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 20, 2009 10:28 AM EDT up reply actions  

3/40 is all I would be willing to pay

Maybe throw another 5-10 in in escalators. ASG, MVP, Playoff MVP, anything you can throw at him. Put it on Craw to earn the rest of that money and if he does we’re going places.

I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.

by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 20, 2009 11:20 AM EDT up reply actions  

Not really

He can’t run, throw or field but he still manages to get on base at a pretty good clip.

His value is solely based on his plate appearences

Look at the 2000 AL ROY voting and try not to laugh.

by RaysnNoles on Aug 20, 2009 10:09 AM EDT up reply actions  

Excuse me .

He was someone who’s value was tied nearly entirely to his legs and has managed to maintain that.

He’s a good example of why Crawford will likely decline around age 32 or so. He doesn’t have the plate discipline that Damon has, and so it will be much more difficult for him to stave off the effects of age.

by Suttree on Aug 20, 2009 10:12 AM EDT up reply actions  

Also a lefty hitter at NYS.

So long, Sweet Lime!
Let's tweet our meats together; @mrmalapropism
Hans Loebel's #1 Fan and #1 Favorite Top Person of All Time. There's no stopping our love, not even rainbows made of ice and steel.

by PlayOnWords on Aug 20, 2009 10:13 AM EDT up reply actions  

I'm sorry

When did the verb “is” suddenly mean an action taking place in the past? Best not be steppin.

FWIW, Damon’s speed has been roughly the same since he’s come into the league, except this year. Usually in the mid 6s. Only three seasons (1999, 2000, and 2002) did he submit a higher speed score than 7.0.

So long, Sweet Lime!
Let's tweet our meats together; @mrmalapropism
Hans Loebel's #1 Fan and #1 Favorite Top Person of All Time. There's no stopping our love, not even rainbows made of ice and steel.

by PlayOnWords on Aug 20, 2009 10:23 AM EDT up reply actions  

RaysnNoles said
His value is solely based on his plate appearences

To which I responded:

Also a lefty hitter at NYS.

So please eat more of the shit from which parasitic cholera infected your bloodstream.

So long, Sweet Lime!
Let's tweet our meats together; @mrmalapropism
Hans Loebel's #1 Fan and #1 Favorite Top Person of All Time. There's no stopping our love, not even rainbows made of ice and steel.

by PlayOnWords on Aug 20, 2009 10:28 AM EDT up reply actions  

Great post RJ.

This may be my favorite thing I’ve read here. Thanks.

by rglass44 on Aug 20, 2009 10:55 AM EDT reply actions  

Wait, you mean the Dugout parodies aren't hilarious?!

No, this was a really good article. I just find it funny that this is considered the best article he’s written when there’s no statistical analysis involved.

That said, RJ’s writing has really flourished over the last 6 months or so.

by Suttree on Aug 20, 2009 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

The analysis isn't really that much "writing" per se.

I prefer any of my posts with analysis to his anyday.

by rglass44 on Aug 20, 2009 12:23 PM EDT up reply actions  

How much is Carl worth?

Over the last three years (including this one and rounding it to 5) we get 4.51 WAR.

He’s 28-years-old, so let’s say he signs a five year deal, that gives you this structure with a 0.5 win decline — aggressive, yes, but let’s say the turf indeed has hurt his knees and his speed starts to go — thrown in:

29: 4
30: 3.5
31: 3
32: 2.5
33: 2

With the 10% increase in money per WAR that gives you a value of 88 million over the next 5 years. Say he takes a 10% discount for a long-term deal and another 5% discount for the Rays. That puts you at about 5/75.

Maybe the Rays can work some tricks, like deferring some money 10-15 years down the road in a “retirement” fund or whatever, but we’re looking at paying one player upwards of 15 million per year while we have two — presumably decent — options sitting a level away who are younger and cheaper.

Also: this is assuming we put it in place of his 10 mil season, if we didn’t, you’re looking at 5/68 and his 30-34 seasons, which are risky.

Either way, you’re talking a ton of money on an annual basis. But, of course the Rays were/are willing to pay Kazmir 13.5 million one season as well.

by R.J. Anderson on Aug 20, 2009 11:10 AM EDT reply actions  

The minor league guys are tradable too, just like the major league ones.

I know it won’t happen before the season ends, but I’d like to hear Friedman/Sternberg/Crawford come out and say something about the situation. We literally have nothing to go on outside of rogue speculation.

I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.

by kericr on Aug 20, 2009 11:27 AM EDT up reply actions  

The minor league guys don't cost 15 million per year and probably aren't too far off in production from year 2/3 on.

They also are under control for 5-6 years each.

Who do I want for the next six years, Joyce or Crawford? Probably Joyce.

by R.J. Anderson on Aug 20, 2009 11:30 AM EDT up reply actions  

That's dumb on his part

1.2M in 2035 will be like 12 dollars

I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.

by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 20, 2009 11:41 AM EDT up reply actions  

Ric Flair agrees.

So long, Sweet Lime!
Let's tweet our meats together; @mrmalapropism
Hans Loebel's #1 Fan and #1 Favorite Top Person of All Time. There's no stopping our love, not even rainbows made of ice and steel.

by PlayOnWords on Aug 20, 2009 11:46 AM EDT up reply actions  

WHOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

Look at the 2000 AL ROY voting and try not to laugh.

by RaysnNoles on Aug 20, 2009 11:50 AM EDT up reply actions  

If we didn't have Joyce and Jennings

I may be willing to do a 4/60 with 2 options for CC. However paying a 32 or 33 year old CC 15 million when we have other options doesn’t fit the business model. Don’t forget we’re getting good production in right field from a platoon that is costing less than 2.5 mil. Platoon players are always available.

www.draysbay.com

by Tommy Rancel on Aug 20, 2009 11:33 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

Depends on how much the payroll grows too.

15 of 70 million is far different than 15/85.

You also have to consider what else that 15 million per year could go to, if anything.

by R.J. Anderson on Aug 20, 2009 11:36 AM EDT up reply actions  

The difference between

15 of 70 and 15 of 85 is 3%. Of course we have no way of knowing what the 15 million could go towards, but id guess extending younger talent much like CC’s first deal and the deals of Longo, Shields etc.

Either way it will be the toughest decision of the Friedman era.

www.draysbay.com

by Tommy Rancel on Aug 20, 2009 11:41 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

I just don't see the point of spending $60m+ for PR or marketing purposes

Which is essentially what the RFO would be doing here. Jennings, the Gabes, Zo, Joyce…these are quality OFs, two of whom are good to very good OF prospects. I’d rather lock BJ up right now (leveraging this and last season if possible) and Garza and especially JP with that money.

So long, Sweet Lime!
Let's tweet our meats together; @mrmalapropism
Hans Loebel's #1 Fan and #1 Favorite Top Person of All Time. There's no stopping our love, not even rainbows made of ice and steel.

by PlayOnWords on Aug 20, 2009 11:49 AM EDT up reply actions  

I get what you're saying

But I believe in that arm and that he’ll find consistency with age. His issues are less worrisome than Kazmir’s were when he signed a deal.

So long, Sweet Lime!
Let's tweet our meats together; @mrmalapropism
Hans Loebel's #1 Fan and #1 Favorite Top Person of All Time. There's no stopping our love, not even rainbows made of ice and steel.

by PlayOnWords on Aug 20, 2009 11:52 AM EDT up reply actions  

It's not a matter of performance as much as the inherent injury risk.

Nobody would’ve expected Brandon Webb to be MIA at this point last year or even six months ago.

by R.J. Anderson on Aug 20, 2009 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions  

Are you against long term deals for all SP?

So long, Sweet Lime!
Let's tweet our meats together; @mrmalapropism
Hans Loebel's #1 Fan and #1 Favorite Top Person of All Time. There's no stopping our love, not even rainbows made of ice and steel.

by PlayOnWords on Aug 20, 2009 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions  

You don't think that Garza can get a Shieldsian deal?

So long, Sweet Lime!
Let's tweet our meats together; @mrmalapropism
Hans Loebel's #1 Fan and #1 Favorite Top Person of All Time. There's no stopping our love, not even rainbows made of ice and steel.

by PlayOnWords on Aug 20, 2009 12:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

Is Sonny still a SP?

I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.

by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 20, 2009 11:59 AM EDT up reply actions  

I think he's a top 5 reliever.

If we’re going to (and we should) round up a bullpen cast of thousands over the next few years, I’d feel a lot better about it with at least one shutdown guy.

So long, Sweet Lime!
Let's tweet our meats together; @mrmalapropism
Hans Loebel's #1 Fan and #1 Favorite Top Person of All Time. There's no stopping our love, not even rainbows made of ice and steel.

by PlayOnWords on Aug 20, 2009 11:53 AM EDT up reply actions  

He doesn't have the "stuff" or the pedigree (yet) to use the closer title as a bargaining chip.

Which is why, if we do it earlier, we might not have to pay him like a closer.

So long, Sweet Lime!
Let's tweet our meats together; @mrmalapropism
Hans Loebel's #1 Fan and #1 Favorite Top Person of All Time. There's no stopping our love, not even rainbows made of ice and steel.

by PlayOnWords on Aug 20, 2009 11:57 AM EDT up reply actions  

Well, if he's a Mariano Rivera./Trevor Hoffman type closer, than it's worth it.

And I’d be hard pressed to think he wouldn’t be. And because of the nature of his throwing motion, I don’t think he’s going to blowing up his arm anytime soon.

by Suttree on Aug 20, 2009 12:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

You just listed the two best closers in 100+ years of MLB pitching

If he is one of those then we are in for a treat. That said, I doubt it.

I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.

by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 20, 2009 12:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

I agree

www.draysbay.com

by Tommy Rancel on Aug 20, 2009 11:52 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

My feelings about a deal:

It’s a well-known fact that players with mixed skill-sets age the best. Look at Johnny Damon. I think he is a great comp. for CC. He started as primarily a base-stealer with a little pop, and he ultimately added enough to be a good LF when he had to make the switch. He’s still a very valuable player. Since he joined the Yanks he’s been about a 3 win player every year. These are his ages 33-37 seasons. That would be the tail-end of a likely CC extension. I’m reaching the point where I’d be in favor of a 5/$75 million dollar deal.

by rglass44 on Aug 20, 2009 11:13 AM EDT reply actions  

ugh

That looks terrible. Just follow the image link.

by rglass44 on Aug 20, 2009 11:29 AM EDT up reply actions  

Nice find

I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.

by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 20, 2009 11:43 AM EDT up reply actions  

Over the next 5 years:

Damon’s slash line of .290/.360/.441 was even better. He saw an increase of wOBA from .337 from 21-27 to .356 over the next 5 years. CC’s wOBA from 21-27 was .348. If he gets even half the increase that Damon does, then one could expect a wOBA of around .358.

What is he worth then?

Well, if he’s playing on average a +5 LF with a .355 wOBA for 150 games per year, then let’s take a look.

Offense: +15
Defense: +5
Position: -7.5
Replacement: +20
Total: +35

That’s a 3.5 win player per year. Are any of these numbers really too high?

by rglass44 on Aug 20, 2009 11:47 AM EDT up reply actions  

The remarkable thing about that comparison isjust how similar they are.

Crawford doesn’t quite have the patience Damon did, but he hits for a better average with a little more power and more steals. He is truly the type of player that’s game should age pretty well. I wouldn’t be in the least suprised to see him become a 20 homer guy in the next few years.

by rglass44 on Aug 20, 2009 11:49 AM EDT up reply actions  

I don't.

You need to get good pitches to hit for power. I think CC has begun to realize that.

by rglass44 on Aug 20, 2009 11:53 AM EDT up reply actions  

BB% by year:

2002 3.4
2003 4
2004 5.3
2005 4
2006 5.8
2007 5.2
2008 6.3
2009 7.6

Why would he stop improving?

by rglass44 on Aug 20, 2009 12:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

SO% by year:

2002 14.8
2003 15.1
2004 12.1
2005 12.2
2006 13.0
2007 18.0
2008 12.5
2009 14.6

Look at the 2000 AL ROY voting and try not to laugh.

by RaysnNoles on Aug 20, 2009 12:11 PM EDT up reply actions  

Why would that stop increasing?

Look at the 2000 AL ROY voting and try not to laugh.

by RaysnNoles on Aug 20, 2009 12:13 PM EDT up reply actions  

Meow.

So long, Sweet Lime!
Let's tweet our meats together; @mrmalapropism
Hans Loebel's #1 Fan and #1 Favorite Top Person of All Time. There's no stopping our love, not even rainbows made of ice and steel.

by PlayOnWords on Aug 20, 2009 12:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

My cat's breath smells like cat food

I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.

by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 20, 2009 12:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

Can you count cards?

So long, Sweet Lime!
Let's tweet our meats together; @mrmalapropism
Hans Loebel's #1 Fan and #1 Favorite Top Person of All Time. There's no stopping our love, not even rainbows made of ice and steel.

by PlayOnWords on Aug 20, 2009 2:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

Does your mother sew?

I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.

by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 20, 2009 2:31 PM EDT up reply actions  

How much did your grandfather weigh at age 12?

So long, Sweet Lime!
Let's tweet our meats together; @mrmalapropism
Hans Loebel's #1 Fan and #1 Favorite Top Person of All Time. There's no stopping our love, not even rainbows made of ice and steel.

by PlayOnWords on Aug 20, 2009 2:32 PM EDT up reply actions  

O-Swing% hasn't really improved

How common is it for a player (other than a Vlad Guerrero) with a consistent ~31% O-swing% to improve to the level of league average BB%?

Crawford still has some improvement to make just to reach league average.

Your source for replacement level commentary

by RATW on Aug 20, 2009 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions  

Saying a 28 yo is approaching the downside is a reach

this means only BJ, Longo and Navi of our position players will improve

by sternfan1 on Aug 20, 2009 1:02 PM EDT reply actions  

For most players, 28 is their peak year.

Great players obviously tend to stay productive through their thirties with another peak around 33-34, but generally, most players have their best year around 27-28.

by Suttree on Aug 20, 2009 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions  

ESPN.com's Jayson Stark

Clubs eyeing Carl Crawford believe the Rays are becoming less likely to deal him. Desmond Jennings could become the Rays’ left fielder, but they’d probably have to be overwhelmed to part with Crawford.

by TPA08 on Aug 20, 2009 5:39 PM EDT reply actions  

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