At the AS break I posted that I believed the AL Wild Card winner would need 95 wins. So now I've revised it somewhat with the three teams, BOS, TEX, & TB, all having 43 games left to play. Boston leads by a game over Texas and three over the Rays. I figure if Boston wins 58% of its remaining games, the Red Sox will have 93 wins. If that holds true, the Rays must get to 94 wins (not factoring in a 1-game playoff for the Wild Card if they both get to 93, or if Texas, TB, and Boston were to all somehow end at 93, whatever the procedure from there would be).

To get from 65-54 to 94-68, the Rays would have to play .674 baseball, if my estimate holds true. Boston meanwhile to get to 93 wins would only have to play .580 baseball (Red Sox have played .571 ball to date).

I think more importantly, the Rays must at least split the remaining games with Texas (3 home, 3 away) and pretty much have to take 4 of the remaining 6 against Boston. For argument's sake everything else is equal that would put the Rays 2 behind Texas and 1 behind Boston, meaning the games against the lower teams on the schedule ( 6 vs TOR and 9 vs BAL) the Rays almost have to win 12 of those 15 games.

Do that and the Rays would still have to go 10-6 in the remaining games against NYY (7: 3H, 4R) DET (7: 3H, 4R) SEA (2, both at home).

Or you could look at it this way: Tampa Bay has 22 home games left. They are 40-19 now, and if they finish 16-6, they would still need to go 13-8 on the road. No matter how you slice it, the Rays MUST start winning games on the road at a better pace than they have. The last road trip (1-5) could prove to be a killer in the end.

It's an uphill battle, that much is a certainty no matter how the numbers are arranged. Go Rays!