I have not seen Beckham play this season, but I think that more than one of those points is a real possibility.

As bobr mentioned earlier, Beckham has 32 doubles, 4 triples, and 5 home runs in 434 at bats. Derek Jeter at the same level and at a similar age had 14 doubles, 11 triples, and five home runs in 515 at bats. Please don’t get me wrong, I am not arguing that Beckham will be Jeter, but I think Beckham has the potential to him more than15 home runs given the amount of doubles he is hitting.

I do not have your expertise nor would I have the temerity to argue with your analysis of what you observed.

When I saw him, he did nothing at the plate and he seemed to throw awkwardly off the wrong foot a number of times when he had plenty of time to get set and throw properly. He also missed a few balls hit up the middle that the opposing shortstop got to, although perhaps that was due to different positioning or harder hit balls.

My view, though, is that it is too early to make any kind of definite or even confident statements. I have seen nobody rate Beckham as high as the three players you mention, all of whom play in higher leagues and different positions with different skill sets. And while I cannot be certain how significant body type is in determining performance, it seems to me you put an awful lot of stress on it, more than I would expect.

I actually have something of a bias against calling anyone below AA a prospect. I prefer to consider them pre-prospects. It seems to me there is too much that can happen between lower and higher levels and only when they perform at AA can we really begin to make serious judgments. I think that way about even the best regarded players such as Moore and before this year, Jennings.

The best we can do is consider whether they seem to be improving as they move up and whether they are holding their own given their age. And so far, both seem to be the case with Beckham. He is hitting better this year than last and is not overwhelmed as a 19 year old. I don’t know what the evaluation of his growth as a shortstop is, but am less interested in whether he is playing it well than whether he is learning and improving.

The same goes for base running. I don’t expect him to read pitchers well yet, but think it worthwhile to know whether he is getting better at it.

There are a few elite players who are so overwhelming in the lower leagues that we can project a bit, but they are rare. And particularly a player like Beckham whose promise seems to lie more in a broad based set of skills than in a few dramatic talents, it is more likely he will develop slowly and steadily, smoothing out the rough edges and, with his apparent work ethic and character, applying himself to overcome his limitations rather than letting them define him.

Of course, that is optimistic guesswork, but I don’t think that having a particular body type and demonstrating flaws in low A at age 19 mean much either.

1. Ceiling close to the same
2. More likely to hit it, because they have less distance to go to hit it
3. Closer to the majors
4. Less likely to be a bust since they are so close

If a HS guy has a definite higher ceiling then I’m all for going for the potential. This wasn’t the case though. Beckham was a major project at #1. Why take the added chance for failure when the upside is the same?