The Difference Between Boston and Tampa Bay
As I'm sure everyone has noticed, the Boston Red Sox have released John Smoltz and Brad Penny within a week of each other. The number one misconception regarding these moves is that the pitchers suck. They don't; John Smoltz had 40 rough innings where a number of things were fluctuated, and as I showed on FG earlier today, you can take 40 inning samples and make a lot of pitchers look good and bad who really aren't. Meanwhile Brad Penny is the whipping boy because about 34% of his balls in play went for hits; otherwise Penny had fair strikeout, walk, and home run rates.
Boston chose against allowing either to regress towards the mean, and why? Well, because they can. The main difference between the Rays and Red Sox front offices is not talent. Despite the star power associated with the names of Theo Epstein and Bill James, or the attractive potential of Jed Hoyer and Ben Cherrington, and it's not the money with which they have to work. This isn't a post calling for revenue or salary caps because those kill innovation and promote a distilled sense of parity. Instead, the difference is the patience either side displays when faced with adversity or criticism.
Look at the Rays roster for players making decent money who struggled. Pat Burrell, for instance, do you think Boston keeps him around to this point, or do you think they say, "We can show our fans we will not stand mediocrity and cut Burrell." During that process they open up a roster spot for another potential player and since they have the capabilities to absorb the Burrell "mistake", it's a win/win situation.
With the Rays, there's absolutely no way they can release Burrell as long as there's reason to believe he'll bounce back. They can limit his playing time and make use of whatever attributes he still possesses, but actually releasing him? No way.
There are more differences - Boston's foolish loyalty to Jason Varitek, for instance, which they can justify because A) they have the money, B) the other options weren't outstanding - but the main one is the skill of being patient. The Rays are ridiculously so, maybe if only because they have to be.
I'm not saying it's the greatest quality to hold, because sometimes it does cost you in the short run, but overall, I think I'd rather have a front office in place that understands time can heal and revert things rather than one that goes on cutting streaks based on 40 inning samples when the track record and underlying metrics reveal everything is fine.
For whatever reason, I think Boston jumped the gun on cutting bait with both. Hopefully it turns out to be detrimental.
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78 comments
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Comments
H/T Normandin the Equestrian Lover for feedback.
by R.J. Anderson on Aug 28, 2009 1:22 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I thought Suttree was the one with that fetish
I’m just not that kind of girl.
by Marc Normandin on Aug 28, 2009 1:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Great points
Do you feel they were patient with Ortiz?
by sternfan1 on Aug 28, 2009 1:34 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Well, they didn't cut him based off ~150 at-bats.
Which means they showed some restraint and foresight.
Maybe they’ll ship him away for nothing like Julio Lugo, but I doubt it.
by R.J. Anderson on Aug 28, 2009 1:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
They recognized early on he had something wrong with his swing
They just needed to get him to realize what it was and fix it. You can’t fix something you don’t feel is wrong, so until he noticed it himself it was going to stay a problem.
by Marc Normandin on Aug 28, 2009 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ortiz may also fall into the same area as Varitek
They are loyal to (or patient with) some folks. Guys like Smoltz & Penny had no history in Boston.
by TallMatt on Aug 28, 2009 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Loyalty isn't really an issue with Ortiz
Like I said, they knew what his problem was, and it was fixable. They just had to wait for it to get fixed.
by Marc Normandin on Aug 28, 2009 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You're smart...
I really like the way your site is run and I think you guys have excellent contributors.
At Camden Chat its always…we sucked tonight, or Matt Wieters is awesome!
Its nice to see some thoughtful and insightful info every now and again.
Keep it up.
by Tetris on Aug 28, 2009 1:43 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't Boston show a fair amount of patience with JD Drew when they brought him in and he strugged at first?
His 2007 wOBA was .346, well below his career average of .385.
I think you make a great point and I’m not trying to argue it, just pointing out another time the BoSox showed a little faith in a guy
by ChiBurbRaysFan on Aug 28, 2009 1:58 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
$70 million requires a lot of patience
by sternfan1 on Aug 28, 2009 1:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, I guess the same principle applies...
Just the size of a contract requiring patience in Boston is a lot bigger than a contract requiring patience in TB.
by ChiBurbRaysFan on Aug 28, 2009 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
They tried to replace Drew with Jermaine Dye that year actually
It was the year Drew’s young child was deathly sick, and his mind was understandable elsewhere for much of the year. The plan was to get Dye and let Drew go to his family for the season. Didn’t work out that way, but at least his kid recovered, as did his production.
by Marc Normandin on Aug 28, 2009 1:59 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Ah ok
For whatever reason I didn’t remember that… thanks for the recap
by ChiBurbRaysFan on Aug 28, 2009 2:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I've always liked Drew for some reason.
I’ve always been a big fan of heels.
by rglass44 on Aug 28, 2009 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Just wait another month when Ben finishes his
www.draysbay.com
by Tommy Rancel on Aug 28, 2009 2:20 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
I, too, have never understood why BOS fans hate JD Drew
I’d love to have him on my team.
Lead singer, songwriter, and caterer for the band Suicide Phoenix. We play sitar-based anthems on real estate law. Available for weddings, birthdays (13+, please), and LAN parties.
by PlayOnWords on Aug 28, 2009 2:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well he hates playing baseball for starters
hates it
I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.
by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 28, 2009 3:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Some of us are trying to knock some sense into others.
It’s going to take a while when we still have to explain why Wins, AVG, ERA, and RBIs aren’t the perfect stats.
@bs_uf15bosox9be The Original Gameday; Learn to use SB Nation
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Aug 28, 2009 11:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
couple more differences
we’re not evil, we tend not to complain about high payrolls within our own division, and we’re not evil.
Kaz/Shields/Garza/Sonny/Price/Davis/Hellickson-necessitate a drool cup or a 7 man rotation
by CubFanRaysaddict on Aug 28, 2009 2:04 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
The Adam Stern claim was pretty fantastic.
by R.J. Anderson on Aug 28, 2009 2:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
big satan on little satan is always fun
and not in the south park satan kinda way…
Kaz/Shields/Garza/Sonny/Price/Davis/Hellickson-necessitate a drool cup or a 7 man rotation
by CubFanRaysaddict on Aug 28, 2009 2:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
One other example that springs to mind is Gabe Kapler...
He was cheap enough the Rays could have cut him when he struggled early this year, but they didn’t and it paid off.
by ChiBurbRaysFan on Aug 28, 2009 2:08 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Joe Nelson is the flipside.
I’d rather us just sign 40 minor league deals and see what sticks then shell out 1m for a middle reliever again. Not that it was a terrible deal, but I’d rather pay the Choates and Abreus of the world.
by Suttree on Aug 28, 2009 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Cormier! but yes I tend to agree with this
There’s only certain guys I’d give a million guaranteed to going forward.
www.draysbay.com
by Tommy Rancel on Aug 28, 2009 2:19 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
Cormier's a more reasonable deal than Nelson.
Younger and without the injury history, nor the wildly deflated ERA. I know the FO was aware Nelson wouldn’t be a 2.00 guy, but still – investing any kind of money in a guy with a long history of arm injuries is a bad idea.
by Suttree on Aug 28, 2009 2:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
meh
He was also a MR w/ upside under team control.
by rglass44 on Aug 28, 2009 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The team control, I appreciate.
I don’t think it was an abortion or anything, just 1m we could have spent elsewhere.
by Suttree on Aug 28, 2009 2:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Same with the Izzy deal.
Just not a lot of upside there. The Percy deal was fine at the time, and still fine to me. But, AF knows he can assemble a bullpen out of minor leagues and the scrap heap, so there’s just no sense in throwing money at old relievers who may only pitch 10-15 games.
by Suttree on Aug 28, 2009 2:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yea it wasn't a terrible deal
Like mentioned above and if it would’ve worked out its nice to have the team control, but glad its a one year deal. I’m all about the one year deal for relievers and if you want throw in a club option with a small buyout.
Im just looking at names and spots and pretty soon we won’t need to sign many relievers as we have Talbot types falling out of the rotation talk.
www.draysbay.com
by Tommy Rancel on Aug 28, 2009 2:27 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
Their value to other teams will be higher than the Rays.
by R.J. Anderson on Aug 28, 2009 2:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah but
Other teams know that the Rays have to move them, and we won’t get full value for them. I don’t think we got equal value on Jason Hammel, but since there was literally nothing we could do but cut him we did what we could. I don’t want to start losing guys like Talbot for less than they’re worth just because there are no spots on the roster. I’d rather just keep them in the BP and not sign MR from other teams to ML deals.
I could be wrong though
by staplemaniac on Aug 28, 2009 2:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I can't believe you're still sold on Smoltz because of one game where he went up against the worst offense in the league in a pitcher-friendly park.
I can possibly buy Penny, but Smoltz is done for.
I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.
by kericr on Aug 28, 2009 2:38 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I didn't even mention that game.
And no, I’m not sold on him because of it. I’m sold on him because his pitchfx and peripherals are just like they were last year, and his BABIP & HR/FB% are out of this world.
by R.J. Anderson on Aug 28, 2009 2:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not in this thread.
You did in a GDT a couple of days ago when you mentioned his 10K line against the Padres.
I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.
by kericr on Aug 28, 2009 2:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I mentioned it.
I’m not basing my analysis off it though.
by R.J. Anderson on Aug 28, 2009 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Fair enough.
I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.
by kericr on Aug 28, 2009 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I've been beating the BABIP thing to death for a month.
by R.J. Anderson on Aug 28, 2009 2:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
"are you guys in love with the rex sox.. who cares about old man john smoltz"
lulz
I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.
by kericr on Aug 28, 2009 2:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I like how we have to turn comments off on most Royals posts or otherwise see a stream of idiots defend them.
Just wait until Moore gets an extension.
by R.J. Anderson on Aug 28, 2009 2:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I didn't know you wrote for fangraphs
Sheesh, how many blogs do you write for?
by acablue on Aug 28, 2009 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I guess I'd kinda do RJ...
Lead singer, songwriter, and caterer for the band Suicide Phoenix. We play sitar-based anthems on real estate law. Available for weddings, birthdays (13+, please), and LAN parties.
by PlayOnWords on Aug 28, 2009 3:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Finding out RJ's a woman actually kind of makes his writing hot now.
Like the Orioles chick who is 12.
by Suttree on Aug 28, 2009 3:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, but RJ has sexy glasses.
Probably a Wiccan. That means lots of nude rituals.
Lead singer, songwriter, and caterer for the band Suicide Phoenix. We play sitar-based anthems on real estate law. Available for weddings, birthdays (13+, please), and LAN parties.
by PlayOnWords on Aug 28, 2009 3:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It is so important that this turn green.
I could be wrong though
by staplemaniac on Aug 28, 2009 3:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wait, RJ is Canadian?!
This is the official website of Rebecca J. Anderson, a Canadian author of fantasy and science fiction novels for children and teens.
I’m outta here.
Hello raysbb.
Your source for replacement level commentary
by RATW on Aug 28, 2009 3:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
sup baby?
Lead singer, songwriter, and caterer for the band Suicide Phoenix. We play sitar-based anthems on real estate law. Available for weddings, birthdays (13+, please), and LAN parties.
by PlayOnWords on Aug 28, 2009 3:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'll my Vader outfit, you be Voldermort.
Because you’re a pussy.
by Suttree on Aug 28, 2009 3:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm going to cut a lightning bolt in RJ's fucking head.
Lead singer, songwriter, and caterer for the band Suicide Phoenix. We play sitar-based anthems on real estate law. Available for weddings, birthdays (13+, please), and LAN parties.
by PlayOnWords on Aug 28, 2009 3:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That would have worked better if you said RJ's fucking clit.
by Suttree on Aug 28, 2009 3:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Have you even read Harry Potter?
Lead singer, songwriter, and caterer for the band Suicide Phoenix. We play sitar-based anthems on real estate law. Available for weddings, birthdays (13+, please), and LAN parties.
by PlayOnWords on Aug 28, 2009 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
GMs
“In Theo We Trust”
your management not to “loyal” to Kazmir.
by wdogg72 on Aug 29, 2009 10:58 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
What does loyalty have to do with winning baseball games?
Sort of like Pedro, Nomar, Manny, and Lowe getting thrown under the bus before leaving. A trick right out of Goebbels book. Can’t wait to see how they make Bay look like the bad guy before booting him out.
Embrace Eternity
by Sandy Kazmir on Sep 3, 2009 9:25 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Smotz and Penny...
I think Smoltz and Penny were cut because the talent pool behind them was sufficient to do as well as they were doing. Smoltz set the expectations and probably set them way too high. He has admitted that in interviews I have heard since then. With Buckholz ready, most Sox fans probably wondered why not put Buckholz in the mix at the beginning of the year, but there was some reason the brass didn’t want to push him forward yet. He’s doing better than Smoltz. I’m not sure how getting rid of either can be “bad”. If the younger guy is just as good, pitch the younger guy. The Sox seems to be loyal. They stuck with Ortiz for 3 months and it seems to have paid off. I remember them sticking with Pedroia for 2 months and it paying off.
by serf_tide on Aug 29, 2009 5:14 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
The Sox kept Penny for five months
And for the entire duration he was either mediocre/average or TERRIBLE. They couldn’t have given him more of a chance, and he failed horribly. But you maintain that he was going to turn it around, that “Boston jumped the gun on cutting bait”. This is where peripherals are useless, because he was not going to be good in september. I you watched him pitch you would have seen a complete lack of secondary pitches and a fastball velocity that dipped five MPH throughout the game.
As for Smoltz, theres no real reason to think he would have been good. This is the American League, and some guys arent cut out for it.
by revived0103 on Aug 29, 2009 6:34 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I'm pretty sure that the league switch wasn't the reason for an ineffective Smoltz
Embrace Eternity
by Sandy Kazmir on Sep 3, 2009 9:27 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

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