Pat Burrell's ISO and History
by R.J. Anderson on Aug 3, 2009 2:15 PM EDT
Email
PrintGood news: Pat Burrell is no longer on pace to produce the worst ISO drop since the 1950s.
Bad news: He's still on pace to drop .118 points.
Double-edged sword news: He's likely to improve next year, but it may not be by much. Also: a sword with two edges, how nifty.
I took everyone since 1950 with ISO drops within 0.005 points of Burrell's either way (meaning .113-.123) and input their ISO from the year of the drop and the year afterwards. Somehow, it worked out to 30 cases exactly. The average ISO of those players in the down year is .139 which amusingly mimics Burrell's current power production. Two players retired following the down year (Steve Boros and Greg Luzinski) but the other 28 who moved on averaged a bounce back with an average ISO of .185.
To put faces on those numbers, they went from this to this.
That seems like a fair swap. The disappointing aspect is that if Burrell follows suite, then we won't be getting the guy we signed up for. The positive is Burrell may finish with an ISO way higher than .139. HitTracker has his average home run distance further than last year and average speed off bat essentially equal. His HR/FB is down, BABIP is static, and LD% is down, which makes you question whether his ability to drive the ball has dissipated, but baseball players generally don't lose this much skill this quickly which leaves me unconvinced that Burrell is toast.
(Full llist of players used in this piece after the jump)
| N | Age | Player | ISO Drop | N ISO | N+1 ISO |
| 2002 | 26 | J.D. Drew | -0.114 | 0.177 | 0.223 |
| 1973 | 30 | Mike Epstein | -0.114 | 0.142 | 0.226 |
| 1997 | 28 | Gary Sheffield | -0.114 | 0.196 | 0.222 |
| 2005 | 37 | Vinny Castilla | -0.114 | 0.15 | 0.091 |
| 2007 | 33 | Nomar Garciaparra | -0.114 | 0.088 | 0.202 |
| 1980 | 28 | Butch Hobson | -0.114 | 0.121 | 0.101 |
| 1954 | 31 | Gus Zernial | -0.115 | 0.161 | 0.254 |
| 1964 | 27 | Steve Boros | -0.115 | 0.065 | DNP |
| 2000 | 32 | Vinny Castilla | -0.116 | 0.087 | 0.207 |
| 1978 | 28 | Mike Schmidt | -0.116 | 0.184 | 0.311 |
| 1992 | 30 | Kevin Mitchell | -0.117 | 0.142 | 0.26 |
| 1974 | 40 | Hank Aaron | -0.118 | 0.223 | 0.121 |
| 1988 | 32 | Jack Clark | -0.119 | 0.191 | 0.217 |
| 1988 | 26 | Wally Joyner | -0.119 | 0.124 | 0.138 |
| 1988 | 28 | George Bell | -0.119 | 0.177 | 0.161 |
| 1971 | 33 | Willie McCovey | -0.12 | 0.203 | 0.19 |
| 1971 | 29 | Jimmy Wynn | -0.12 | 0.092 | 0.197 |
| 1952 | 31 | Wally Westlake | -0.12 | 0.076 | 0.165 |
| 1962 | 28 | Jim Gentile | -0.12 | 0.224 | 0.181 |
| 2007 | 35 | Ray Durham | -0.12 | 0.125 | 0.143 |
| 1958 | 33 | Del Ennis | -0.12 | 0.089 | 0.112 |
| 1976 | 30 | Bobby Bonds | -0.12 | 0.049 | 0.256 |
| 1958 | 31 | Duke Snider | -0.12 | 0.193 | 0.227 |
| 1984 | 33 | Greg Luzinski | -0.121 | 0.126 | DNP |
| 1986 | 26 | Mike Young | -0.121 | 0.119 | 0.165 |
| 1971 | 23 | Bernie Carbo | -0.122 | 0.12 | 0.111 |
| 1962 | 27 | Roger Maris | -0.122 | 0.229 | 0.273 |
| 2002 | 36 | Ruben Sierra | -0.122 | 0.099 | 0.15 |
| 1965 | 30 | Felix Mantilla | -0.123 | 0.141 | 0.152 |
| 2001 | 32 | Travis Fryman | -0.123 | 0.072 | 0.133 |
92 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
what do you mean platoon him
his lefty/right splits are fairly static both ways.
I suppose if you are incredibly low on Burrell you can let Willy Aybar play against lefties (I wouldn’t mind this), but his platoon splits are pretty even as well. Why would you platoon, then?
b/c i doubt i could convince maddon to just sit 8mil on the bench,
it seems more palatable to say ‘lets platoon’…
Pat's injury from earlier in the season
I’m willing to give Pat the benefit of the doubt, the neck problem he had can be chronic. I’ve had the same issue, it’s an impingement in the neck that also causes shoulder weakness, and takes a good bit of time to recover from. It can take a few months to get back to full strength, and to be honest, they probably rushged him back a few weeks sooner than they should have.
I do agree that he needs some time off, but so does Pena…and Aybar should be getting 5-10 more AB’s a week.
I also wish that the Rays would bring up Jaso or Riggins, and let one of them catch…hell, Dillon was warming up Kaz between innings, let him catch.
by Blue or CONKZILLA on Aug 3, 2009 5:57 PM EDT up reply actions
Oh that Vinny Vastilla
Seth Smith status: Finally Getting Playing time
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY
After today's game...
Let the JB in the leadoff spot with Willy DH’ing talks catch fire. At this point I don’t see what the harm could be.
"I want to live in a world where a solo homerun in the 2nd inning counts as much as a solo homerun in the 8th."
we could loose precious runs that we're going to need if we want to get to the playoffs
you are pretty much using one games worth of evidence to overturn statistical analysis of years of player innings/at bats.
Batting order doesn’t actually matter, so do whatever you want there I suppose, but Aybar’s wOBA this year is still lower than Burrel’s career (IIRC, its close though, they’re both in the .360s) and in 2008 he had a .327 wOBA. I’m not completley sold (and by completley sold I mean I’m not sold at all) that Aybar can produce at even a lessened-Burrell rate.
Trust Me...
I am not a proponent of moving things around in a hasty manner but at this point I think getting JB the most At-Bats possible is a good thing. I love BJ and think he could immediately turn his season around in a matter of weeks but he is in a slump and with just 6 BBs since July 1st he is not getting it done.
"I want to live in a world where a solo homerun in the 2nd inning counts as much as a solo homerun in the 8th."
its more appeasing the fanbase than anything, because it doesn't actually matter
I personally think the order we have now is fine, regardless, because Upton doesn’t fit in the #6 spot. I definatley would not move him down to 9th…
Why can't you see BJ in the 6th or 7th spot?
"I want to live in a world where a solo homerun in the 2nd inning counts as much as a solo homerun in the 8th."
I've read some of the evidence that says batting order holds little to no sway in offensive production
I get the myth of batter protection, but I can’t wrap my head around the idea that putting fast guys in front of slow guys in a lineup is irrelevant to outcomes.
that came out very poorly
batting order doesn’t matter in the grand scheme of things because the general principle is that your best hitters are going to be hitting near the top, and the difference of at bats from leadoff to 2nd, 3rd to fourth, etc. isn’t a noticeable one, even over a full season.
That being said, I don’t want B.J. to be in the 6th spot because (the way I understood it) cerain batting results carry different weights depending on which spot in the order they are accomplished (although not by a large difference). And, not having The Book (I know, kill me now), from what I remember the 6th spot is where stolen bases are the least valuable (probably because, generally, the hitters behind are less likely to drive in a run on a successful steal, and if you get caught an out is more costly as you may not get to your good hitters at the top of the order. Thats just a guess though).
Basically, my point is that a move up or down one or two spots (moving pena to 6th for instance) isn’t going to effect his total value by more than a few runs even over a full season, but when you take someone (and the number of at bats they get) and move them from 1st to 9th you (probably, I haven’t done any of the research myself so I have no idea if this is correct) are going to find that you are taking a significant hit in the number of plate appearances you accumulate. That, coupled with his skill set being suited for 1st, is why I would not move B.J. (I would, actually, move him to #2, if anything, but C.C. has leadoff-phobia, so what can you do.
the idea that batting order makes no difference is idiotic
and maybe i don’t know the reasoned statistical analysis behind your belief of that, but it goes contrary to EVERY major belief held about baseball. might as well bat Pujols first, put CC 7th, hit Mauer 6th, put Ichiro 8th. i mean players have skill sets that suit where you put them in the order. top of the order sets the table for hte bottom of the order, no point hitting a contact hitter like bartlett 9th if there’s no one on in front of him.
It makes a minimal amount of difference in terms of actually scoring runs.
And batting Pujols first isn’t a terrible idea.
i fail to believe that
so if our 1-4 hitters are great, and our 5-6 hitters are strikeout machines, and we have a contact machine, should we continue to hit the k-machines while we have the most men on base?
my argument is it's better to make contact then strike out
slg% be damned, i’ll take a singles machine with a contact rate of 80% over a strikeout machine with a much higher slg% but a contact rate of 60%
65.6% for Pena, Upton 76.3%, Burrell 78.3%
http://www.fangraphs.com/winss.aspx?team=Rays&pos=all&stats=bat&qual=0&type=5&season=2009&month=0
We cool?
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
Contact includes fouls though
Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks
Personal preference is wonderful.
However, the likelihood that a team would feature 6 guys who can consistently maintain a 330+ average is highly unlikely.
why do we need 6?
we have 1, and we’re batting him in a lower impact slot while the guy with the .320 obp and 120k’s is batting first…
perhaps batting slot doesn’t have dramatic effect on runs scored, but it does have SOME effect, and our batter are not being optimally used.
when you said contact machine I thought you meant Navi (who is around 88%), but Barty is only around 83% and that is actually down from years past
his .330 average is unsustainable as it was fueled by a riduclous BABIP-high at the beginning of the season.
Talk to James Click, you know, the guy who wrote that chapter and works in our front office.
by R.J. Anderson on Aug 3, 2009 4:07 PM EDT up reply actions
i am not opposed to batting the best OBP guy, ubless it's a true power giy #1
Gross or Zobrist is fine with me
Like those two 1st inning runs?
It all started with a lead off walk
10.4% right?
Barty’s BB%? 7.4%
Those damn numbers always get in the way!
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
You really don't think BJ would draw that same walk
Or was Greinke “afraid” of JB?
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
comparing Barty and BJ this year
is like the Dodgers and Nats
I'm just saying that BJ would have most likely walked given the same set of pitches
Season plate discipline #’s agree
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
obviously, we'll never know
and i agree Barty does O-swong a lot, but i just don’t like BJ lately with the count in his favor
Understood
I was just pointing out that MVB is actually more likely to chase out of the zone
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
no i don't
he loves to swing 2-0 and it’s usually a pitch out of the zone
B.J. and Burrell are our best OBP guys.
by R.J. Anderson on Aug 3, 2009 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions
History?
Well Christ lets sign Hank Aaron. He’d be our best home run guy.
You literally cannot just take the average of someones career and apply it to this year. PtB is nowhere near the player he used to be. To even attempt to use his career stats in this manner is extremely intellectually dishonest.
Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks
Nobody is using career stats.
You know better.
by R.J. Anderson on Aug 3, 2009 10:02 PM EDT up reply actions
Im not saying Pat hasnt looked bad
But to weigh 3 months against 8 years is a little extreme
by BJ the Bossman on Aug 3, 2009 11:17 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't think we have a lot of choice
Hope he bounces back, where a deadline deal is possible
But he no longer goes into ’10 as the fukk time DH
Fukk time is fukking awesome
Swav or Die (>'-')> <('-')> <('-'<)
For the lulz
by SRQman on Aug 3, 2009 3:51 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
OT: what the hell is wrong with long?
he’s looked like shit since june… this is one prolonged slump.
Slumps are for Longo, Upton and Zobrist
For all others they’re called trouble
Zorilla had a post going up.
And over the weekend I didn’t bother.
They’ll return tomorrow.
by R.J. Anderson on Aug 3, 2009 4:13 PM EDT up reply actions
You must be referring ot Zobrist's "3 game slump" in the Texas Series
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
Call me crazy
But if Aki’s knee is fine when he gets back, put him at 2nd (or DH him if youd rather keep Zo there, if not DH Zo) and have him bat leadoff. His walk % isnt great, but hes still a .375+ OBP guy, and sees 4.8 pitches per plate appearance.
Im waiting on Burrell to turn it on just like everyone else, but if Aki is 100% when he returns, his plusses outweigh how Burrell is hitting right now. Just a thought, because unlike some people on this thread I dont want to see Barty leading off, and I dont think it would kill BJ to get some time in the 6 hole.
Aki's return
I’m all for Ben playing first and Willie DHing more, but I think when Aki gets back he’ll be a Utility Player the rest of the year.
by Blue or CONKZILLA on Aug 3, 2009 6:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Yea i figured hell be a bench guy
just brainstorming I guess. Wouldnt hurt to try IMO
by BJ the Bossman on Aug 3, 2009 6:27 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't see how this isn't obvious
MVB should be batting leadoff. Yes he has been a bit lucky. So what? Nobody is expecting him to hit .400. Even if his numbers drop off a bit he’d still be a better leadoff hitter than BJ. I wouldn’t move BJ down significantly. Put him 4th or 5th.
Hernandez should play over Navarro. Navarro sucks. I wouldn’t shed a tear if we just cut him.
Aybar should DH quite a bit of the time. At this point in their careers Aybar is a better hitter than Burrell. PtB can DH when Aybar plays the field. Against a lefty Aybar can play 1st with PtB DHing.
It seems too many folks are putting personal feelings in the way. Just play the best players play in their best spots to give us the most wins.
Vs Righties:
MVB
CC
Longo
Upton
Zobrist
Aybar
Pena
Gross
Hernandez
Vs Lefties
MVB
CC
Longo
Upton
Zobrist
Aybar
PtB
Hernandez
Kapler
These two lineups just clearly are the best for us. At least to me. I hate the fact it just seems that we are letting personal relationships get in the way of our optimal lineup. The order isn’t the most important thing, but the guys that play are.
Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks
Irony.
Hernandez should play over Navarro. Navarro sucks. I wouldn’t shed a tear if we just cut him.
It seems too many folks are putting personal feelings in the way. Just play the best players play in their best spots to give us the most wins.
by R.J. Anderson on Aug 3, 2009 10:03 PM EDT up reply actions
The fact that Navi sucks is not a personal feeling
It is in fact, a fact.
Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks
but hernandez being better isn't a fact...
and he was referring to the “I wouldn’t shed a tear” comment, something that obviously implies emotion, something you criticize. The fact that you mention that you wouldn’t shed a tear implies you have emotions, something you criticized, in the opposite direction (meaning, against Navi).
BJ Upton
OPS vs Lefties: .574
So you are complaining about him batting leadoff, want to see his current deficiencies magnified? Put him in the 4th spot and in front of Zobrist. This really is just not very smart.
by BJ the Bossman on Aug 3, 2009 11:22 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't subscribe to the "lineups matter" crowd. I'm more of a hybrid
I think lineups matter in the sense you want it organized correctly. You don’t want a base stealer in front of a first pitch hacker for example. This is why I like Upton 4th instead of 5th in my lineup. Putting him 4th puts him in front of Benzo, which gives him an opportunity to steal and score on singles. If you put him 5th and in front of say Pena or Burrell, then you aren’t going to be able to steal and then score on basehits as often.
But really the order doesn’t matter that much. My main focus is getting the right guys IN the lineup. Namely Hernandez and Aybar.
Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks
Reply fail
Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks
aybar isn't the right guy against righties
Burrell’s wOBA against righties is right around .340, in a slumping year, and for his career has been around .360. Aybar has one year worth of plate apperances where his right side wOBA is up to that level. I think you want Aybar in to be different, more than it is going to make any sort of difference. I’d be willing to say its a mistake to have him in over Pat everyday against righties, even this year.
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Please read our Community Guidelines.
Related FanPosts on DRaysBay
Related FanShots on DRaysBay
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
DRB Suggestion Box
In Association With
Big League Stew - MLB - Yahoo! Sports
- College player makes impossible over the fence catch to save tournament game (Video)
- Security!: Camden Yards guard collides with Royals’ Mike Moustakas
- The Juice: Nelson Cruz matches career high eight RBIs, Pujols stays hot in Seattle
- Benches clear at Fenway as Red Sox-Rays rivalry heats up
- Keeping good company: Albert Pujols becomes fourth-youngest player to hit 450 home runs
