Jason Bartlett and Leading Off
by R.J. Anderson on Aug 3, 2009 11:21 PM EDT
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PrintJason Bartlett's BABIP is .384. His BABIP over the last three season are .354, .301, and .336. He is 29-years-old (30 in two months) and stands 6'. We have nearly 1,500 plate appearances to go off from the past three years, but people are more than content to look at this year and say, "Look, this is Bartlett. He'll be fine!" His regular season stats are going to be inflated, but don't fall into the trap of assuming a .393 wOBA is what we should expect moving forward.
Entering yesterday he had played in 84 games. If you simply cut that into half you get a .996 OPS in the first 42 and a .768 OPS in the second. He's not "going to regress soon", no, he's already regressing. Nobody talked about it, but over his last 99 plate appearances his OPS was .694. Look at his monthly splits by OPS and BABIP:
April: .902/.382
May: 1.127/.429
June: .824/.413
July: .692/.305
August is far too small of a sample size to use, but is it really a coincidence that Bartlett's OPS went down the drains when his BABIP did? Mind you, a .305 BABIP is actually above league average but still below what Bartlett has recently shown he's capable of. Look at his walk rates:
April: 4.7%
May: 8.7%
June: 1.8%
July: 12.4%
With his best walk rate and an okay BABIP, Bartlett managed a .692 OPS. In future weeks you should expect his BABIP to expand and his walk rate to decline. Bartlett went back to being what he is: a slap hitting shortstop who hits liners and not home runs. He had a very nice game today and just so happened to hit leadoff, that's it. He's not going to hit for a .900 OPS moving forward. B.J. Upton probably won't either - and as an aside I have legitimate fears that his shoulder may be hurt again based on his July, his BABIP was decent but he hit for absolutely zero power, that's not good.
If you want to make a change at the leadoff spot, fine, but Jason Bartlett isn't the full-time answer.
Before someone takes this as me arguing for Upton remaining leading off let me state it clearly: I am not arguing that.
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I know he's still hurt and it sort of nullifies the Gabes
but what about Aki back in the lead off with Zorilla in right? Maybe throw the Gabes in as occasional days off for the outfielders, DH?
I convinced my fiance to use Rays colors for our wedding. What have you done lately?
I said this in an earlier post
But suggested Zo DHing (or Aki DHing) and Aki leading off. Doesnt walk that often, but is a consistent ~.375+ OBP guy and was seeing 4.8 pitches per plate appearance before the injury. Again, its definitely not a long term answer, but it very well may be our best option right now. Then again, there is a very good chance Aki is just a bench guy when he gets back. Goodbye “crystal meth” Joe :(
by BJ the Bossman on Aug 3, 2009 11:33 PM EDT up reply actions
If Aki's knee is in good shape I'd be fine with putting a potential .350-.360 OBP back at the top
Realistically I don’t think we can expect too many steals though, the threat of which by Upton I think is an unsung contribution to Carl’s #s. Carl is seeing more (2.2% combined) fastballs and cutters than last year, which might be within statistical noise but I suspect is due to the increased steal threat with Upton on first.
Maybe I’m just an old fashioned BJ suck-off-er. (Good call Sandy)
by Lurch's Lobbyists on Aug 3, 2009 11:34 PM EDT up reply actions
good point
about fb and cu’s, you also can’t help but wonder if his increased patience at the plate isn’t a result of trying to give Upton a chance to steal a base.
Kaz/Shields/Garza/Sonny/Price/Davis/Hellickson-necessitate a drool cup or a 7 man rotation
by CubFanRaysaddict on Aug 4, 2009 12:11 AM EDT up reply actions
Lineup Order actually matters very liittle.
Brad Ziegler had a scoreless inning streak. Brad Ziegler had not met BJ Upton.
It matters enough though
And it’s something that should be easy to fix. If you end up losing 1 more game than you should have because of a bad lineup order, then that’s 1 more game than it should be.
I’m getting sick of hearing this excuse, that X isn’t important because the effects aren’t massive. When you’re at the point where you’re winning 90 games, and the winningest team in history only won 116, then obviously it’s doing a lot of little things that push you up a level. If something is low impact but easy to do, then you should do it anyway.
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
Having a leadoff player who puts the ball in play might be better than what they have now.
Using BABIP is a way to undermine JB’s productivity, but the fact that his BB/K ratio is higher than the current leadoff hitter, I would take the fewer walks to have a slap hitter just trying to get on base for the meat of the order over a guy trying to go deep leading off the game and subsequent AB.
He may not be the answer, but he sure has done better the Rays have gotten so far from others in that spot.
He may not be the answer, but he sure has done better the Rays have gotten so far from others in that spot.
Did you even read this site?
Brad Ziegler had a scoreless inning streak. Brad Ziegler had not met BJ Upton.
I was going to say the same thing
You literally just argued what RJ said he wasnt advocating.
by BJ the Bossman on Aug 3, 2009 11:41 PM EDT up reply actions
But to advocate that JB isn''t the answer is without reasonable substantiation. He may not be the answer, but he may be.
He had a great day in the lineup position and rather than credit for having a big part in the demise of Grenke there is a thread to discredit him as a leadoff hitter. I thought BJ would work out there as did most of us, but it has not proven to be the case.
Are you basing your entire argument on 1 game?
Brad Ziegler had a scoreless inning streak. Brad Ziegler had not met BJ Upton.
can the awnser to the lead-off question be as simple as
we don’t have a good option. That being said claiming Jason Bartlett isn’t as good as he has been this season and should regress this is why he should hit 9th makes little sense to me. I’m not saying he is a good lead-off hitter, but right now either is BJ for this season. If BJ was the same hitter he has been over the past 3 years or if Bartlett was the same hitter has been the last 3 years it would be different.
No, not one game. But the logic when he had the .996 OPS was that he shouldn't be moved up because it was too small of a sample size...
Now that he has regressed in the past 42 games that sample size is the reason that he is not the leadoff answer.
When in Minnesota he second some and his OBP was .356 and OPS of .781, in 300 AB. Pretty good numbers to throw at the top of the order. Of course most of it was against LHP.
The logic of not moving him up then is because we all knew he wouldn't be as good moving forward.
And did you really just cherrypick one season out of the last three that most supports your argument and put it forth?
God.
by R.J. Anderson on Aug 4, 2009 12:14 AM EDT up reply actions
Using ABs in any given lineup spot is useless.
Brad Ziegler had a scoreless inning streak. Brad Ziegler had not met BJ Upton.
I have "The Book" right next to my computer. Good info, but not proof.
Hindsight and mega-computers can be used to prove anything.
Tell that to Prior's arm, Dusty.
Brad Ziegler had a scoreless inning streak. Brad Ziegler had not met BJ Upton.
Or Volquez...Common sense involved too.
Volquez pitched against the Rays in Spring Training on three days rest I believe.
How do you know that's bad for pitchers?
Oh, because of hindsight and mega-computers. Right.
by R.J. Anderson on Aug 4, 2009 12:28 AM EDT up reply actions
I can see where this is going. Just go ahead and call him a kid and explain to us that your 50 years of baseball 'expertise' trumps statistical analysis so I can ban you already.
I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.
Wow, so disagreeing in a civil and logical way results in banning?
No need. Have a great night.
Nope. Saying that stats are wrong because you said so and offering no evidence to the contrary is not having a civil discussion. That's being closed-minded. You're not debating, your arguing.
I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.
I am not closed-minded at all, I believe the opposite may be true. You are the one theatening a ban because I disagree.
And if you don’t think there is logic to the idea that JB may be the best option the Rays have for a leadoff batter, then I think you will be banning a bunch of people.
I gave stats and was told they didn;t matter because he said so. But I will leave for the night, and if you feel the need to ban me, that is your option.
It doesn't matter who I think would be a better leadoff hitter
But that is not, and never was the point of this post. The point of this post was “Bartlett is going to regress because he had a bad July”, and my counterpoint was “everyone’s July was bad, no he isn’t.” I’ve said this thread was stupid. Twice. People aren’t reading it. People are assuming this is BJ versus Bartlett.
But the point is, in this discussion, RJ is providing you with numbers to argue his point, and you’re implying that he’s manipulating statistics. That’s not having a civil disagreement. That’s dismissing his argument completely as worthless because it disagrees with your POV. That’s why I threatened to ban you, because it’s trollish behavior. Just back up your point with your own analysis instead of dismissing someone else’s without proof that it’s false.
I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.
False.
Hindsight and mega-computers can be used to prove anything.
You can come up with an argument, but that’s not proof.
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Please read this:
Jason Bartlett’s BABIP is .384. His BABIP over the last three season are .354, .301, and .336. He is 29-years-old (30 in two months) and stands 6’. We have nearly 1,500 plate appearances to go off from the past three years, but people are more than content to look at this year and say, “Look, this is Bartlett. He’ll be fine!” His regular season stats are going to be inflated, but don’t fall into the trap of assuming a .393 wOBA is what we should expect moving forward.
Entering yesterday he had played in 84 games. If you simply cut that into half you get a .996 OPS in the first 42 and a .768 OPS in the second. He’s not “going to regress soon”, no, he’s already regressing. Nobody talked about it, but over his last 99 plate appearances his OPS was .694. Look at his monthly splits by OPS and BABIP:
April: .902/.382
May: 1.127/.429
June: .824/.413
July: .692/.305
August is far too small of a sample size to use, but is it really a coincidence that Bartlett’s OPS went down the drains when his BABIP did? Mind you, a .305 BABIP is actually above league average but still below what Bartlett has recently shown he’s capable of. Look at his walk rates:
April: 4.7%
May: 8.7%
June: 1.8%
July: 12.4%
With his best walk rate and an okay BABIP, Bartlett managed a .692 OPS. In future weeks you should expect his BABIP to expand and his walk rate to decline. Bartlett went back to being what he is: a slap hitting shortstop who hits liners and not home runs. He had a very nice game today and just so happened to hit leadoff, that’s it. He’s not going to hit for a .900 OPS moving forward. B.J. Upton probably won’t either – and as an aside I have legitimate fears that his shoulder may be hurt again based on his July, his BABIP was decent but he hit for absolutely zero power, that’s not good.
If you want to make a change at the leadoff spot, fine, but Jason Bartlett isn’t the full-time answer.
Star-divide
Before someone takes this as me arguing for Upton remaining leading off let me state it clearly: I am not arguing that.
by R.J. Anderson on Aug 4, 2009 12:11 AM EDT up reply actions
To prove that batting order has very little significance we should do what Billy Martin did with the Yanks
Every day have someone pick names out of a hat and make the lineup like that. It would be so much fun—but I would put the Catcher of the day’s name in the hat three times for a good laugh
I hope Merlot Joe doesnt read this site
dont give him any ideas
by BJ the Bossman on Aug 3, 2009 11:50 PM EDT up reply actions
line-up doesn't matter so who cares how we go about getting it done
I’m sure there are stats that back up the line-up doesn’t matter or RJ wouldn’t keep preaching it. That being said I don’t necessarily agree with it. There has to be a reason that managers keep putting the same (for the most part) line-ups out there everyday. If line-up didn’t matter than in theory picking numbers out of a hat would be fine.
Have fun
Check the vast difference for yourself.
I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.
by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 4, 2009 10:39 AM EDT up reply actions
Your worst guy should bat 8th
And your best slugging and OBA guy should bat either first or second. Everyone else you could move around and find little to no variance.
Just did it myself and it looks a little something like this
1b Pena
C Navarro
RF The Kaptain
3b Longo
SS Barty
CF Upton
LF Crawford
2b Zobrist
DH Burrell
See that aint so bad, a .346 OBP leading off, a guy with a +.900 ops vs lefties in the “critical 3 spot” and Burrell buried at the 9 spot. See not so hard.
When asked Bartlett seemed to embrace the idea
and yes while we all know this year probably won’t happen again, why not capitalize on it fully (allowing him to lead off)?
I guess part of what bothers me with some of the stats, we’re not allowed to enjoy a great season because of something that MIGHT happen (Niemann and Barty), yet we’re supposed to be in love with a bad season, simply based on a +15 runs above average, whatever that means
simply based on a +15 runs above average, whatever that means
Just got home from English II?
Brad Ziegler had a scoreless inning streak. Brad Ziegler had not met BJ Upton.
Replace the MIGHT with probably will and I can appreciate that argument
It should be times like these with players like Niemann and Bartlett where we should just take in what they are currently accomplishing with a good dose of luck especially knowing in all likelihood it won’t last
Need a lineup? No problem...just give me paper, pen, scissors, a hat, and a blindfold
"MIGHT happen"
Entering yesterday he had played in 84 games. If you simply cut that into half you get a .996 OPS in the first 42 and a .768 OPS in the second. He’s not “going to regress soon”, no, he’s already regressing. Nobody talked about it, but over his last 99 plate appearances his OPS was .694. Look at his monthly splits by OPS and BABIP:
by R.J. Anderson on Aug 4, 2009 12:10 AM EDT up reply actions
out of curiousity do you know the split on the OPS?
I know he is not hitting with power right now, but since when is power a pre-requisite to leading off?
.341/.351 in July if that's the timeframe you're referencing.
by R.J. Anderson on Aug 4, 2009 12:12 AM EDT up reply actions
while the OBP isn't great, it's not horrible
the slugging is a problem right now and he is no C.C. but can steal bases and a single + SB is nearly as good as a 2B.
I can't believe I'm in full agreement with what Raymondo said
Bartlett is playing over his head and has cooled off tremendously over July, that being said he has been our best hitter in terms of average on the season and while he is hitting why not try to maximize the oppurtunity while he is playing well. I don’t remember Tony LaRussa keeping Ryan Ludwick in the 8 spot last year because of the fear of regression.
Because he ISN'T playing well.
Entering yesterday he had played in 84 games. If you simply cut that into half you get a .996 OPS in the first 42 and a .768 OPS in the second. He’s not “going to regress soon”, no, he’s already regressing. Nobody talked about it, but over his last 99 plate appearances his OPS was .694. Look at his monthly splits by OPS and BABIP:
by R.J. Anderson on Aug 4, 2009 12:10 AM EDT up reply actions
his OPS has dropped cause he hasn't hit a HR
to discount the year he’s had is ridiculous
I'm not discouting his season.
For the love of God I’m saying moving forward.
by R.J. Anderson on Aug 4, 2009 12:13 AM EDT up reply actions
....Are you implying one HR is worth 300 points of OPS?
Really?
Brad Ziegler had a scoreless inning streak. Brad Ziegler had not met BJ Upton.
has Barty's OBP dropped significantly?
we’re talking about him leading off, not his OPS as much as his OBP
Before someone takes this as me arguing for Upton remaining leading off let me state it clearly: I am not arguing that.
STFU
Brad Ziegler had a scoreless inning streak. Brad Ziegler had not met BJ Upton.
So does the question become is not is Bartlett at this regressed rate good,
but is he at this regressed rate better than BJ at his current rate?
Need a lineup? No problem...just give me paper, pen, scissors, a hat, and a blindfold
Before someone takes this as me arguing for Upton remaining leading off let me state it clearly: I am not arguing that.
Brad Ziegler had a scoreless inning streak. Brad Ziegler had not met BJ Upton.
I don't see how anybody can think anyone has heated up, cooled off, or gotten injured when the team's offense universally slumped that entire month.
This is like thinking the entire pitching staff lost 2MPH on all their pitches. This isn’t directed specifically at you, but this is stupid.
I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.
B.J. had a pretty decent BABIP put didn't drive the ball at all in July.
by R.J. Anderson on Aug 4, 2009 12:13 AM EDT up reply actions
If BJ's shoulder is hurt, then you might as well move him down to #8 and leave Barty at leadoff since they'll both suck moving forward..
I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.
While BJ has been hitting better of late and Bartlett coming back down
for the season Bartlett’s Batting Average is higher than BJ’s OBP. Forgive him for not taking enough walks but I personally don’t care how he gets on base.
THIS IS NOT WHAT THE ARGUMENT IS. THE ARGUMENT IS BARTY'S REGRESSING
Brad Ziegler had a scoreless inning streak. Brad Ziegler had not met BJ Upton.
"Before someone takes this as me arguing for Upton remaining leading off let me state it clearly: I am not arguing that. "
Brad Ziegler had a scoreless inning streak. Brad Ziegler had not met BJ Upton.
PBrady, i argued today for Zo or Gross to bat lead off
but Barty is not as bad as BJ
i know it’s one game, but his lead off walk was big, we scored two 1st inning runs
when is the last time that happened/
BJ got on base in the first inning yesterday.
I win.
Brad Ziegler had a scoreless inning streak. Brad Ziegler had not met BJ Upton.
.
i know it’s one game, but his lead off walk was big, we scored two 1st inning runs
when is the last time that happened/
by R.J. Anderson on Aug 4, 2009 12:31 AM EDT up reply actions
I thought the arguement was if Bartlett was a better lead-off hitter than Upton
While I don’t think we have any great options at lead-off Bartlett would be a better option than BJ.
.
Before someone takes this as me arguing for Upton remaining leading off let me state it clearly: I am not arguing that.
by R.J. Anderson on Aug 4, 2009 12:18 AM EDT up reply actions
Wrong button.
Star-divide
Before someone takes this as me arguing for Upton remaining leading off let me state it clearly: I am not arguing that.
by R.J. Anderson on Aug 4, 2009 12:18 AM EDT up reply actions
This isn't B.J. vs. J.B.
This isn’t what has happened. This is “What WILL happen moving forward”.
by R.J. Anderson on Aug 4, 2009 12:17 AM EDT up reply actions
so basically because Bartlett has never been a .330 hitter in the past
he can’t now. I can see if he was 36 and all of a sudden having a career year, but maybe he is just starting to become a good hitter because of putting a lot of work in the off-season/during the season on hitting. This could also explain why he hasn’t been as good defensively this season because he has spent more time in the cage.
But the numbers say he's getting lucky, THATS why he's not a .330 hitter.
Brad Ziegler had a scoreless inning streak. Brad Ziegler had not met BJ Upton.
so if he regresses to only a .300 hitter, that's bad?
Yeah, he’s gonna regress, there aren’t too many hitters in the bigs that hit .330 every year. Come to think of it, there’s no one who currently does that outside of maybe Pujols. Once again, this all seems like Niemann v. 2.0. Everyone said Niemann’s gonna regress, like that meant that he hadn’t put in a good season, and no one gave him a chance to develop. Barty’s hit over his means, and we act like that’s a bad thing. But the point is, he doesn’t have to hit .330 to be a good leadoff hitter. And OPS isn’t really the best stat to use for a leadoff man. OBP makes more sense. You want a guy getting on base any way he can. Bartlett is the best option we have this season. And, if he can hit anywhere near .300/.375 OBP, that sounds like a good option moving forward.
by raysfaninminnesota on Aug 4, 2009 1:58 AM EDT up reply actions
His numbers at the end might = .330
But expecting him to hit .330 from here on out is a good way to promote failure.
by R.J. Anderson on Aug 4, 2009 12:22 AM EDT up reply actions
I doubt he hits .050 or w/e makes him regress to his averages
chances are he hits around .285 with an OBP of around .340 which has been better than BJ all season.
That's not how regression works.
He’s not going to hit so it “averages” out. He’s going to hit closer to what you’d expect him to hit all along.
by R.J. Anderson on Aug 4, 2009 12:26 AM EDT up reply actions
Also to add, can't the same arguement be made
to move Zobrist down in the order. Zobrist is playing above his head so he gets moved up in the order to 4 to maximize his current season and Bartlett gets moved to 9 because he has to regress because he isn’t this good.
I don't really see the point of this article
First, Bartlett’s BABIP is not unsustainable based on his LD% (30) up from a career average of 18%. Perhaps this could be chalked up to luck, but I would tend to think that since Maddon specifically emphasized to JB that he needed to hit more liners and grounders this season, it is primarily due to a change in approach. I know most on this site refuse to believe a player can change his approach at the plate in this manner, but I do.
Second, of course his BABIP strongly correlates with his OPS. I think this is true for the vast majority of players. Yes, he’s been streaky, but so has every other player in the history of the game. Is this a reason he doesn’t belong in the leadoff spot? No.
LD% don't curve up like that. batters have MUCH less control over GB$/LD%/FB% Than pitchersm really, expecting him top keep THAT up is silly.
Brad Ziegler had a scoreless inning streak. Brad Ziegler had not met BJ Upton.
He has been hitting well this season.
That’s why his BABIP is high, not because of a bunch of fluke balls finding holes. I believe it is do to a change in approach, while you clearly do not. We will have to agree to disagree.
BABIP doesn't work like that!
Brad Ziegler had a scoreless inning streak. Brad Ziegler had not met BJ Upton.
actually it does
the more line drive you hit, the higher your BABIP. What don’t you understand?
Hitter's don't have THAT much control over LD%
Brad Ziegler had a scoreless inning streak. Brad Ziegler had not met BJ Upton.
I don't understand this argument
What exactly do hitters control then? Just K/BB and HR/FB?
Hes saying
that there really arent hitters that can walk up and say “Im going to hit a line drive”. If that were the case, everyone would hit a line drive at least 50% of the time.
by BJ the Bossman on Aug 4, 2009 12:46 AM EDT up reply actions
Well, I can agree with this point.
But I’m fairly certain there are guys who have hit more LDs than other guys consistently over their careers. So I’m saying its possible to increase LD% buy a modest amount with a change in approach. Perhaps I am wrong if there really is very little range in LD% among players over their careers.
I think there's a fair amount of fluctuation.
But admittedly I’m not sure on the year-to-year R^2.
by R.J. Anderson on Aug 4, 2009 12:54 AM EDT up reply actions
Then why don't more hitters have high LD%?
Is Bartlett a more talented hitter than Longoria, Pena, Upton, Burrell, and so on that he can suddenly decide to hit more liners?
by R.J. Anderson on Aug 4, 2009 12:35 AM EDT up reply actions
Perhaps some of the increase is do to luck, granted.
However, I suspect some is do to a change in approach. I can see him being a 22-25% LD guy for the next couple years.
He's been ~22% over the last three years (2009-2007 I assume using the FG leaderboards)
by R.J. Anderson on Aug 4, 2009 12:49 AM EDT up reply actions
Including this year, yes. If you just use 04-08
then he was at 18%. At least according to B-Ref.
Hm.
FG gets their batted ball types from Baseball info Solutions and B-Ref from Retrosheet (I believe at least), so the answer might be somewhere in the middle.
by R.J. Anderson on Aug 4, 2009 12:56 AM EDT up reply actions
Well that makes me kind of skeptical of this LD stuff in general then
if the classifications can differ by that much based on who’s looking.
Yeah.
Thankfully HitFx should solve almost all of the subjectivity involved and give us a clear picture.
It won’t help us in this case, obviously, but in future cases it should.
by R.J. Anderson on Aug 4, 2009 1:02 AM EDT up reply actions
Is HIt F/x in every satdium?
Also, don’t the giants have some sort of setup that records the exact trajectory and speed of every ball hit and at the same time records the exact position of every fielder? I think I read about this. If so that should eventually make for a fantastic metric if it gets installed in every park.
Yes and yes they're implementing cameras and all.
Pitching metrics are about to become complete.
by R.J. Anderson on Aug 4, 2009 1:08 AM EDT up reply actions
How do you know he's been hitting well this season, other than looking at BABIP, AVG, OBP, SLG, or anything else that's related to BABIP?
Otherwise it’s a circular argument.
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1. Never mentioned streaky
2. Hitting fly balls is actually WORSE for BABIP than hitting GB. OF flies turn into outs about 80% of the time, infield flies almost 100%. You may get more home runs, but Bartlett isn’t the power hitting type.
by R.J. Anderson on Aug 4, 2009 12:33 AM EDT up reply actions
Fair enough about the streaky part
but I don’t think its fair to lump flyballs and line-drives into the same category. I think everyone should be able to agree that those two types of balls tend to be produced by two different types of swings, but I could be wrong.
I wasn't trying to lump fly balls and line drives together.
He’s hitting more fly balls, which is what Maddon said, I’m saying fundamentally that’s not a smart idea for someone without power because in the end it’s going to result in more outs than hits.
Hitter HR/FB% isn’t like pitcher HR/FB%.
by R.J. Anderson on Aug 4, 2009 12:37 AM EDT up reply actions
If I remember correctly
Maddon told him that he had one of the worst BAs on flyballs in the league last year. He instructed him to hit more grounders and line-drives, not flyballs. Thus, why I suspect a change in approach could play some role in the improvement seen this season.
I think you're right and I totally messed that up.
Because I feel like if Maddon said more fly balls I would’ve been pissed enough to make a post on it.
by R.J. Anderson on Aug 4, 2009 12:47 AM EDT up reply actions
Nonetheless, I am only arguing it is possible that a change of approach has had some effect.
I certainly understand the skepticism. It’s difficult to believe that Joe could just say JB hit more line drives and he does it. I’m hoping there is actually more to the story — like Henderson or someone working with him.
Maybe it's a decent mix of luck and adjustments.
It’s just impossible to put percentages on either and therefore it’s hard to expect he’s going to continue with it.
by R.J. Anderson on Aug 4, 2009 12:58 AM EDT up reply actions
I think the main point is that a reasonable expectation for Bartlett going forward is something like .350/.415
That can be a decent lead off hitter, but some people’s expectations are a lot higher than that. If yours aren’t, great. If they are, you should re-think things.
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Im sorry
but are these arguments really going on? Did no one read the fucking post before they commented? more than half of these comments are comparing BJ to Barty. I am in complete awe of the fact that even ONE person had the nerve to do that, let alone people keep fucking bringing it up.
Yeah, this is really fucking stupid.
Brad Ziegler had a scoreless inning streak. Brad Ziegler had not met BJ Upton.
I read the article
however when you happen to make a Barty article the night he goes 3-5 as a lead-off hitter forgive some of us for wanting to compare him to the current lead-off hitter.
I would
EXCEPT AT THE BOTTOM OF THE FUCKING ARTICLE IT SAYS DONT DO IT
by BJ the Bossman on Aug 4, 2009 12:27 AM EDT up reply actions
If nobody can see past one game then honestly I've failed.
by R.J. Anderson on Aug 4, 2009 12:28 AM EDT up reply actions
Everytime Duemig mentions the site your soul dies a little.
Brad Ziegler had a scoreless inning streak. Brad Ziegler had not met BJ Upton.
This site going "mainstream" in the area probably will drive me insane.
by R.J. Anderson on Aug 4, 2009 12:30 AM EDT up reply actions
I just dont understand
why people arent open minded. When I got here, I had never even heard of things like BABIP, or done any research on fangraphs. But when you actually read the articles, and these “crazy predictions” come true, maybe you should accept a lot of it as fact? No one is born with an innate knowledge of sabermetrics, but I just wish people would do some reading and research before they dismiss it as “playing baseball on a calculator.” Some people are just too fucking arrogant to take a new approach to something theyve been watching one way their entire lives.
by BJ the Bossman on Aug 4, 2009 12:34 AM EDT up reply actions
I also think you need to realize everything can't be explained on a calculator
No calculator can explain why Crawford refuses to hit lead-off or play CF. Calculators don’t explain why Soriano likes to hit lead-off and his stats hitting lead-off compared to in the middle of an order.
The calculator line is really going to rub people the wrong way.
Especially because I’m friends with and have attended quite a few games with scouts.
by R.J. Anderson on Aug 4, 2009 12:40 AM EDT up reply actions
I never said everything can be explained on a calculator. At all.
All Im saying is if you are one of these self-proclaimed “old school” baseball fans, maybe at least try some of the things that are talked about on this site? Look up some stats, do some historical research, compare players using sabermetric stats. None of this can hurt, and if you (not you personally but anyone in general) continues to post here, it will really help add to a discussion.
by BJ the Bossman on Aug 4, 2009 12:42 AM EDT up reply actions
this site has made me appreciate the game like never before
but i take exception with articles predicting a player to fail moving forward, especially as was mentioned, after he had the vest lead off day we’ve seen here in some time v one of AL’s best SP
It's a hot topic, I posted on it. Get over it.
We signed Burrell and I warned his year-34 season might be a bust, did you complain about that too?
by R.J. Anderson on Aug 4, 2009 12:41 AM EDT up reply actions
Please
Lets not use one game as a predictor moving forward. If we did so, youre “one of the best pitchers in the AL” wouldnt be in the majors anymore.
by BJ the Bossman on Aug 4, 2009 12:43 AM EDT up reply actions
now you're the one not reading a post
i said his timing was terrible, not his content
Thats not how it read to me
But my fault. Guess I misunderstood.
by BJ the Bossman on Aug 4, 2009 12:48 AM EDT up reply actions
Anyone want to make an avatar bet on Barty's BABIP going forward?
It’s .390 this season, .330 career, and ZiPS predicts it’ll be .340 going forward. I’ll take the under on .350. Any takers?
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RJ you had to expect this coming
You say that a guy that hit lead-off today isn’t the answer even though he’s been better than the guy we got all season and you expect everyone to ignore this fact because you put a caveat at the the end? Actually, compared to who we have now, he is an answer. Compared to some mystical prototype leadoff hitter then perhaps he is not the answer.
I did, but I think the critique is how you define what an "answer"
is to our lead-off problems. In some aspects, he is an answer.
Is he likely to play closer to career norms the rest of the way as opposed to his May/April? Absolutely. If that’s what you wanted to write then just write it. I don’t see the point of saying he isn’t an answer to the lead-off. Isn’t an answer compared to who? It just begs for this kind of commentary.
Fair enough.
Do note my “full-time” part of the phrase. Against lefties he very well could be the solution. I’m not sold on righties. I guess Aki is missed in that regard.
by R.J. Anderson on Aug 4, 2009 12:41 AM EDT up reply actions
I'd like Gabriel Gross to lead off against lefties.
His at-bats are amazing. Great at working the count, etc.
I can at least say for myself I've been preaching Bartlett at lead-off well before this game
and it wouldn’t have mattered if he wen’t 3-5 or 0-5, however I’d be lying if seeing him have success didn’t help me think my thoughts are worth something. I thought at the begining of the season BJ was going to be a great lead-off hitter in the Soriano mold. Whether it is because he is hurt or because he is slumping or w/e is the problem he has not had a good year at all outside of 1 month. He has good AB’s and has speed but for some reason he isn’t getting on base. I know batting order doesn’t matter on “computer baseball” but for some people it matters on the field, or Crawford wouldn’t incest he doesn’t lead-off. Will moving BJ down in the order make him get hits again, who knows, but what harm is there in trying? Bartlett may not be 10x better than BJ but I doubt he could be much worse.
When you explain '06 and '09, i'll discuss '06
he’s having a great year—it happens
His BABIP is like 0.030 points over his career norm.
There, explained.
by R.J. Anderson on Aug 4, 2009 12:42 AM EDT up reply actions
i fully understand BABIP
but he’s actually driving the ball this year v last
He is hitting more liners.
But there’s no guarantee that continues. Look at Milton Bradley, he hit 25% liners last year and fell back to ~20% this year.
by R.J. Anderson on Aug 4, 2009 12:45 AM EDT up reply actions
G'night RJ good debate
PS—i commented on your Townsend article in FG
Good article
so basically he was asked to hit more line-drives and grounders
and because he is doing so he will regress. Maybe I’m crazy but I think that the increase in BA and his LD% could be related to him working on it. Like I said above this could also explains him not being as good this year on defense. Basically the opposite of Brignac in the minors and his transition into a above average defender, which resulted in a couple down seasons on offense.
Nobody even mentioned his defense.
And again, if it’s that easy to hit liners, why aren’t others doing it?
by R.J. Anderson on Aug 4, 2009 12:53 AM EDT up reply actions
Hitters don't have THAT much control on their Line Drive rate.
Brad Ziegler had a scoreless inning streak. Brad Ziegler had not met BJ Upton.
so if Bartlett plays 5-6 more years
there is no room for improvement? Basically if a player plays 3 years they should just put a computer out there because the rest of his career is just going to be played along a normal line.
I don't think there's anything wrong with comparing Barty to BJ.
Just don’t read the article as saying RJ prefers BJ to Barty in the lead off spot.
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Can we have a platoon lead-off
BJ for RHP & Bartlett for LHP?
LHP
BJ is hitting .190/.310/.264 with 1HR 7RBIs 21BB & 37Ks 8 of 13 in SBs(he’s actually very good at stealing off LHP)
JB is hitting .333/.394/.542 with 3HRs 16RBI 10BB 12K 0 of 1 in SB
RHP
BJ is hitting .267/.323/.422 with 6HRs 29RBIs 23BB 76Ks 24 of 31 SBs
JB is hitting .335/.380/.500 with 5HRs 29RBIs 14BBs 41Ks 20 of 22SBs
if you are going to use full season stats, why would you look at this and still want BJ leading-off against righties.
RHP
BJ is hitting .267/.323/.422 with 6HRs 29RBIs 23BB 76Ks 24 of 31 SBs
JB is hitting .335/.380/.500 with 5HRs 29RBIs 14BBs 41Ks 20 of 22SBs
Because BJ was non-existant for April & May
He’s probably much better than that if you figure he’s healthier
by Transplanted on Aug 4, 2009 12:47 AM EDT up reply actions
What is the significance of the last 61 at-bats?
by R.J. Anderson on Aug 4, 2009 12:56 AM EDT up reply actions
Because BJ was non-existant for April & May
He’s probably much better than that if you figure he’s healthier
He's only had 61 at-bats since June 1st?
by R.J. Anderson on Aug 4, 2009 1:02 AM EDT up reply actions
no those were a random date I picked middle of July
just that all the talk is JB regressing downward and BJ regressing upward of late, when over the last 3 weeks JB is still hitting .70 points higher. At some point this whole season as to mean something to “this” season. Next season very well may be a whole new story, but this year Bartlett is better than Upton and forgive me wanting to guess based on my eye that Bartlett will be better over the next 2 months.
Hm.
1. It’s not about B.J./J.B.
2. Regression doesn’t abide by our timelines. At some point it happens.
3. Just because a player hits .300 for the first half doesn’t mean he’ll hit .300 for the second half. That’s not how baseball works, you know this.
by R.J. Anderson on Aug 4, 2009 1:12 AM EDT up reply actions
Do you have the Month & Pitcher data for like
April LHP, April RHP, May LHP, May RHP ’cause I dunno where to find that stuff
Also interesting note for 2009 for BJ
After 1-0 .271/.387/.424
After 0-1 .192/.256/.275
Compared to 2008
After 1-0 .255/.325/.407
After 0-1 .256/.437/.363
Granted some of this is probably due to all of those Fastballs that he couldn’t catch up wit hat first, but still a noticeable split
It's worth utterly nothing.
Bartlett has hit far better to date. Nobody is arguing that.
by R.J. Anderson on Aug 4, 2009 12:59 AM EDT up reply actions
By month LD% for Barty:
April 27.1
May 27.3
June 32.6
July 20
For reference: over the last 3 years the highest LD% in the MLB is 24.9%.
Sorry, that's the player with the highest LD% over that time. Not individual season high.
So either Bartlett is suddenly the best hitter in baseball or he’s gotten some luck along with adjustments.
by R.J. Anderson on Aug 4, 2009 12:54 AM EDT up reply actions
Good work on the month by month LD splits
Funny though that JUNE was his highest LD, but not an amazing OPS that month. Looking at these numbers, no doubt there is some luck involved.
Probably.
This team has found the key to turning scrappy-ish defensive first shortstops into offensive juggernauts.
by R.J. Anderson on Aug 4, 2009 1:01 AM EDT up reply actions
Do some actually think we should have signed Rocco over Kapler?
That would have been stupid.
They did during the offseason.
I actually touched on this WAY earlier showing Kapler’s YTD production versus that of Hinske and Baldelli. At the time, it was way in Kapler’s favor. Even with Hinske getting hot, it still pretty much is from a cost/performance standpoint.
I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.
Hinske gets to play in a backyard, no fair.
by R.J. Anderson on Aug 4, 2009 1:10 AM EDT up reply actions
4 of his 6 HR since being traded to the Yankees are on the road
I thought of that, but it bears out that he’s just gotten plain ’ol hot.
I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.
Maybe playing with Pittsburgh is less fun
I mean look at Greinke since his team went down the drain, he’s doing far worse
Sorry, 3 of his 5 came on the road
But to be fair, ‘plain ol’ hot’ is a .417 OBP in 21 ABs over 29 games.
Yeah. 21 at bats in 29 games since acquired. He must love it there.
I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.
Not sure anymore.
But some were upset that Rocco left for “only 1.5” million or whatever. Turns out he’s already making more than Kapler and doing less performance wise.
by R.J. Anderson on Aug 4, 2009 1:09 AM EDT up reply actions
Well he left for '$500k'
He’s earned 1.5M up to this point including his bonuses.
Just to look at it now:
Baldelli: 269/331/454, 5HR, 17RBIs, 108ABs
Kapler: 250/331/456, 4HR, 24RBIs, 136ABs
So they’re pretty similar in stats but Kapler’s earning half a mill less.
I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.
there are a lot of interesting questions with Bartlett
he had a 50 walk year in 2007, but that dipped last year with TB. This year is he walking along the same rate as 07. He seems to be capable of settling into a .280-.300 hitter, but the key will be where his pitch selection is. If he can have his walks like they were in .2007 and 2009, then his good OBP along with being a 20-30 steal guy does make for a solid leadoff hitter.
Even though this isn’t about upton, i still can’t help but wonder if Upton would be best at the #3 spot when healthy. With Longoria proving to be an RBI guy, a Bartlett-CC-Upton-Longo-Zobrist-Pena does seem enticing.
by raysfaninminnesota on Aug 4, 2009 2:19 AM EDT reply actions
I do wonder if most people who've read this site have ever played an organized baseball game
You can’t fucking walk up there and put the ball wherever you want even 30% of the time. Dont you think Carlos Pena would just hit grounders to third base every time he was up if that was the case? Batters have barely a second of reaction time to decide whether or not they are going to swing. It took you longer than that to read any one of these sentences. Think, people. You don’t even need a calculator to figure it out. Does it stand to reason that, of all people, Jason Bartlett is the only one to have figured out the secret to spraying line drives? IF SO, fuck him for not explaining it to the rest of the team.
So long, Sweet Lime!
by PlayOnWords on Aug 4, 2009 7:44 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
I think you are partially true
I think far more lies within the mechanics of the swing. Certain players have much more control where they hit the ball in terms of side and altitude than other players.
Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks
If swing mechanics were totally malleable then everyone would turn out like Ben Zobrist.
So long, Sweet Lime!
Mkanx'd
Into the Wall : Sarcasm for the Soccer Guy
by ReasonableDoubt on Aug 4, 2009 9:10 AM EDT up reply actions
So what you are saying is
hitting is based on luck?
I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them. - Thomas Jefferson
To a large degree, everything up to the point of contact is skill (hand eye coordination, instinct, awareness)
And afterward, it is, to a large degree, dependent on luck. Where the pitch is, what type of pitch, and fielder quality and positioning mostly. Power is generated by the batter and the pitch type.
So long, Sweet Lime!
I see your point I agree to a degree
however say JB knows he needs to get the ball to te right side, it is not that difficult to wait for a pitch that you can hit to the right side. 90% of all players can directionally hit to some degree. My % is soley my opinion but it should be close. Whetherit is abase hit or not is another story. But Tony Gwynn used to bethe best I have ever seen at directional hitting. I don’t believe it is as much luck as skill.
I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them. - Thomas Jefferson
There are always outliers
But you really can’t compare Tony Gwynn and Jason Bartlett.
Sure, you can try to direct your hits. Hell, that was my goal every time at the plate. Go opposite field. 8/10 times, I just hit a grounder to the 2B, due to these other factors and because my other skills, my controllable skills, weren’t that great. Trying is grand, and all players should, but don’t expect a ton of success.
So long, Sweet Lime!
I had a massive argument with MongoLongo about this earlier in the year.
It got ugly. I believe I was called a fucking moron.
I don't recall
calling you a fucking moron.
I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them. - Thomas Jefferson
Not trying to compare
JB to Gwynn because that is not comparable. But just trying to say that directional hitting to me is more of a skill than luck. But staying in the topic at hand, I do think JB should be leadingoff until someone else proves they can do it better.
I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them. - Thomas Jefferson
I agree that the LD% isn't all luck like some people are saying
again not trying to compare skill set like with TG but. It has been said many times (not on here but in the media) that Ichiro could be a HR hitter but chooses to be a slap hitter instead. That is a choice he makes and does it well. I wonder how much Joe Mauer’s numbers have changed this year because he is hitting more HR’s.
Also, this is why guys like Evan Longoria and BJ Upton get so much support around here
Their hand-eye coordination (usually just called “hands” by scouts, announcers) is pretty damn exceptional. Their plate coverage is exceptional. Their bat speed is exceptional. Their instincts are exceptional. The other components of hitting come and go, but for players with their skillset, it usually comes – very hard.
So long, Sweet Lime!
43 players currently have a .300 average
I know you’re talking about line drives, but the guy has been a solid slapstick hitter since he’s been in the majors. This is only his third full season in the bigs. He very well could be a late bloomer. He’s shown he’s had some potential in each of his years. Can he sustain his LD rate? No. But that doesn’t mean he still can’t develop into a .300 hitter w/ a .375 OBP.
by raysfaninminnesota on Aug 4, 2009 9:52 AM EDT up reply actions
Usually, these kinds of personnel decisions are made based on what's MORE likely.
Is it MORE likely that JB suddenly becomes Tony Gwynn, at age 30, or is it MORE likely that he’s just coming down from a great 12 months and will become the player he’s been his entire life, which isn’t bad (a pretty nice player, actually), but not the best leadoff option?
Similarly (forgive me, RJ): is it MORE likely that BJ continues to hit like Julio Lugo or is it MORE likely that he returns to being the player he’s been his entire life? Unless its, as RJ fears, an injury, I’d have to go with 22 years of stellar play over 2 years of underperformance.
So long, Sweet Lime!
Love it.
It’s like when pitchers start posting 5% HR/FB rates when Mariano Rivera’s career rate is 6%. Yup, random dude has figured out something Mo hasn’t figured out…
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Here are the lineups that I like. This is my order that I most prefer, but that doesn’t matter too much. What matters is who is playing and when.
Righties:
MVB
CC
Longo
Upton
Zobrist
Aybar
Pena
Gross
Hernandez
Lefties:
MVB
CC
Longo
Upton
Zobrist
Aybar
Burrell
Hernandez
Kapler
What really matters:
Aybar is a superior batter than Pena against left handed pitching. He should play 1st against lefties.
Hernandez is better than Navi at this juncture. He should play the majority of the time.
Of course against some lefties you can have Pena and Burrell playing. Against righties it doesn’t truly matter whether we DH Burrell or Aybar. I think Aybar is a better hitter at this point, but who knows? Against righties I bet they mash about the same from here on out. We don’t need a strict platoon
Re: Upton/MVB
I like MVB at the top. I like Upton in the middle. Mainly because I like Upton hitting in front of a guy like Zobrist. I just think that line up better utilizes our speed. That is one of the reasons why I hate Pena hitting 4th. He doesn’t hit singles so it kind of takes away the impact of the stolen base. But really this isn’t that important.
Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks
Pena's wOBA against left handers is around .340 this year (had a bad year last year and a great year in 2007)
I’m willing to think he should play every day. Aybar’s wOBA against lefties last year was at .350, and this year is at .360. For all intents and purposes I think they’re nearly the same (I put more faith in Pena’s sample size, but, that being said, I do think Aybar can/should/would put up a wOBA of around .350 against lefties). It just seems like a latteral move to me.
Let me ask a question...
By the way I liked this post. You could probably write one of these a week to show regression at work for various players across the league.
The point of “approach” was brought up, and I admittedly don’t know much about batter control of LD/FB/GB. But let me try to word my question correctly:
Bartlett may or may not have changed his approach, that’s fine and the effectiveness of that can be a point of debate. However, a guy like Zobrist becomes an animal all of a sudden, and I think that most on this site (myself included) are at least partially sold that he DID change his approach (got new swing instruction) and therefore he is a much better hitter than he has been historically.
Let me try to answer my question for myself…could it be that I am willing to accept that Zobrist had a reach change because he is not regressing as much, and since Barty is regressing to a larger degree, it is pointing to an evening out and return to career norms or expectations?
Does this make any damn sense?
Ben's LD% (probably the biggest determinant of BABIP for non-speed guys like CC, Ichiro, etc) is well within career norms.
He’s managed to hit more fly balls with more power. That’s different than what Barty’s doing, which is hitting an inordinate amount of line drives. LD are the most difficult of batted ball types to hit. Even if you swing completely level, there’s a better chance of striking the ball with the bottom or top (relative, of course, as the bat head is cylindrical), forcing it to the ground or in the air, because of pitch spin and descent/ascent. To hit LD with the regularity that Barty is implies a near preternatural ability to strike the ball with the greatest amount of bat surface area. That is not a skill, unless you are a precog with full awareness of where every pitch is going to cross through your swing path.
So long, Sweet Lime!
Perfect...Thanks
I’m still working on figuring out which stats lend themselves more to predicting regression.
Flying out for a wedding this week, may pick up “The Book” if Borders has it.
It took a long time for people to accept that Benzo improved, not all are fully on board still
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
And a big difference is Zo walks twice as frequently
His plate discipline is his greatest weapon.
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
Zobrist is Jesus in the church of Zo
chew on that one
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One other big point
Is that Zobrist was never really a full time player until this season. Barty has started for years and posted very similar numbers until this year, when his BABIP and, consequently, LD% rose.
by BJ the Bossman on Aug 4, 2009 10:50 AM EDT up reply actions
And Zobrist was always a good minor league hitter.
With the potential to add some power because of his frame.
The two aren’t comparable.
by R.J. Anderson on Aug 4, 2009 11:50 AM EDT up reply actions
Thanks,
I wasn’t trying to make a comparison in players, mostly just using two guys playing “above their heads” to get a comparison of their expected regression rates.
I chose Player A and Player B simply because 1 was in this post, and the other is generally playing above expectations. Not other reason.
I didn't mean for that to come off rough.
And the comparison is understandable. I just don’t think Bartlett has the physical skills that Zobrist has to make such a startling change.
by R.J. Anderson on Aug 4, 2009 11:55 AM EDT up reply actions
Bartlett commented on his change in approach in Inside Pitch
He said he would stay inside the ball too much trying to flare the ball to right. Now if sees a ball inside he’s trying to turn on it. So is his change in approach responsible for his success? I’m sure it has a lot to do with luck and staying hot, but is he pulling a lot more balls this year as compared to previous years? Just curious.
sounds like fluke
but Upton is only hitting .139 leading off a game, with a .229 OBP in the first inning. After that, he’s hitting .272 in the rest of the innings. Is there anything to this? Or is it just circumstantial numbers?
by raysfaninminnesota on Aug 4, 2009 10:47 AM EDT reply actions
It's a really small sample..
There could be something to it, but he only has 111 PAs leading off a game. That’s too few to draw any conclusions.
Can a player develop at 28?
Most of this thread has pointed to why Bartlett cannot sustain his level of success. Most of it is valid (he can’t continue to hit 30% LDs, that’s obvious). What hasn’t been addressed is why he was so successful over the past year?
Here is Bartlett’s line from August 2008 – August 2009:
127 Games, 452 PA: .341/.389/.507
He’s hit 36 doubles, 6 triples, 9 HRs.
Not only are his rates up, but he’s also hitting more doubles, triples, and HRs then ever before.
Looking back at seasonal numbers, he’s hitting a lot fewer groundballs and his flyball and linedrive numbers are both up. Is it possible that a change in approach, or a stronger swing, has made him a slightly different player than before?
I’m not saying he’s the Bartlett of April and May, but he also may have developed into a better version of himself.
Agreed
I think everyone can agree that Barty is a better hitter now than he ever has been. That being said, I think his true level is somewhere in the middle (~.360 OBP at best) and that probably isnt enough to be a true leadoff hitter.
by BJ the Bossman on Aug 4, 2009 10:52 AM EDT up reply actions
people in minnesota thought
he was capable of being a .300 hitter. The question is, does this make him a good complementary piece at the bottom of the order or a good leadoff hitter?
by raysfaninminnesota on Aug 4, 2009 10:56 AM EDT up reply actions
If he can hit .300 then he's a perfectly adequate leadoff.
That is if there isn’t a better option.
Who knows.
BA isn’t the way to determine where anyone hits.
by R.J. Anderson on Aug 4, 2009 11:51 AM EDT up reply actions
.360 isn't good enough?
A .360 OBP would make him 8th in baseball this year (using team splits). It would have been 7th in 2008 and 8th in 2007.
Of course, a .400 OBP would be better and that’s what we were expecting elsewhere. It didn’t happen. Bartlett isn’t a bad option, he’s just a bad option if there is a better option around. That’s becoming more and more debatable as the season goes on.
Let me add that I don’t think he’s proven he can carry a .360 OBP. That may be a bit lofty. He hasn’t shown an ability draw enough walks and would have to maintain a .300 average to have an OBP that high. Not sure if that is really likely.
being a true lead-off hitter and being the best possible lead-off hitter on this team are different
Given the way Upton has played this year we don’t have a true lead-off hitter, and I’m not so sure even if Upton is playing to what his norms are he makes a proto-typical lead-off guy anyway. Barty is just the best of mediocre options at the lead-off spot.
This was a terrific read
The comments, that is; did not read the actual post.
Your source for replacement level commentary
by RATW on Aug 4, 2009 12:01 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
I really enjoyed the demonstration of regression in the article.
The whole “regression has already started” thing was brilliant.
I do think you need a follow-up post with some projections for a variety of hitters against both lefties and righties to help pick who SHOULD be leading off.
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Gabes?
sure I doubt that both of their walk rates are sustainable, but still. I think they would be the best option if we don’t leave Upton there (I still think Upton is the best option, but if he is going to get moved, don’t put Bartlett up there).
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